Face à la diversité et à la complexification des modes de formalisation, une épistémologie des méthodes scientifiques doit confronter directement ses analyses à une pluralité d’études de cas comparatives. C’est l’objectif de cet ouvrage. -/- Aussi, dans une première partie, propose-t-il d’abord une classification large et raisonnée des différentes fonctions de connaissance des théories, des modèles et des simulations (de fait, cette partie constitue un panorama d’épistémologie générale particulièrement poussé). C’est ensuite à la lumière de cette classification que les deux (...) parties centrales analysent et distinguent les assises conceptuelles et épistémologiques des principaux types de formalisation en géographie avant et après l’ordinateur (théories des localisations, modèles gravitaires, loi rang-taille). En employant toujours la même méthode analytique et comparative, la dernière partie se concentre sur l’explication épistémologique des trois révolutions computationnelles récentes : l’analyse des données, la présentation des données et enfin l’analyse par simulation computationnelle. -/- Au travers de cette enquête approfondie, la géographie apparaît non seulement comme une discipline carrefour, ayant pour cela donné des exemples de presque tous les types de modèles scientifiques, mais aussi comme une science innovante en termes épistémologiques. Car ce qui a d’abord été pour elle un frein à la formalisation -– sa sensibilité au caractère multifactoriel comme à la dimension irréductiblement spatiale des phénomènes sociaux – et qui l’obligea longtemps à inféoder ses théories et modèles à des disciplines plus aisément formalisables comme la géomorphologie, l’économie, la sociologie, la démographie, ou bien encore la thermodynamique et la théorie des systèmes, devient aujourd’hui un atout dès lors que, parmi les sciences humaines et sociales, elle peut développer une épistémologie non seulement pluraliste mais aussi combinatoire et intégrative. -/- Préface de Denise Pumain (Université Paris 1). (shrink)

This volume presents the proceedings from the Eleventh Brazilian Logic Conference on Mathematical Logic held by the Brazilian Logic Society in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil. The conference and the volume are dedicated to the memory of professor Mario Tourasse Teixeira, an educator and researcher who contributed to the formation of several generations of Brazilian logicians. Contributions were made from leading Brazilian logicians and their Latin-American and European colleagues. All papers were selected by a careful refereeing processs and were revised and (...) updated by their authors for publication in this volume. There are three sections: Advances in Logic, Advances in Theoretical Computer Science, and Advances in Philosophical Logic. Well-known specialists present original research on several aspects of model theory, proof theory, algebraic logic, category theory, connections between logic and computer science, and topics of philosophical logic of current interest. Topics interweave proof-theoretical, semantical, foundational, and philosophical aspects with algorithmic and algebraic views, offering lively high-level research results. (shrink)

Mathematical models provide explanations of limited power of specific aspects of phenomena. One way of articulating their limits here, without denying their essential powers, is in terms of contrastive explanation.

Games of chance are developed in their physical consumer-ready form on the basis of mathematical models, which stand as the premises of their existence and represent their physical processes. There is a prevalence of statistical and probabilistic models in the interest of all parties involved in the study of gambling – researchers, game producers and operators, and players – while functional models are of interest more to math-inclined players than problem-gambling researchers. In this paper I present (...) a structural analysis of the knowledge attached to mathematical models of games of chance and the act of modeling, arguing that such knowledge holds potential in the prevention and cognitive treatment of excessive gambling, and I propose further research in this direction. (shrink)

I argue that the contrast between models and theories is important for public policy issues. I focus especially on the way a mathematical model explains just one aspect of the data.

Mathematical models of biological patterns are central to contemporary biology. This paper aims to consider what these models contribute to biology through the detailed consideration of an important case: Hamilton’s selfish herd. While highly abstract and idealized, Hamilton’s models have generated an extensive amount of research and have arguably led to an accurate understanding of an important factor in the evolution of gregarious behaviors like herding and flocking. I propose an account of what these models (...) are able to achieve and how they can support a successful scientific research program. I argue that the way these models are interpreted is central to the success of such programs. (shrink)

The article presents a verbal and mathematical model of medium-term business cycles (with a characteristic period of 7–11 years) known as Juglar cycles. The model takes into account a number of approaches to the analysis of such cycles; in the meantime it also takes into account some of the authors' own generalizations and additions that are important for understanding the internal logic of the cycle, its variability and its peculiarities in the present-time conditions. The authors argue that the most (...) important cause of cyclical crises stems from strong structural disproportions that develop during economic booms. These are not only disproportions between different economic sectors, but also disproportions between different societal subsystems; at present these are also disproportions within the World System as a whole. The proposed model of business cycle is based on its subdivision into four phases: – recovery phase (which could be subdivided into the start sub-phase and the acceleration sub-phase); – upswing/prosperity/expansion phase (which could be subdivided into the growth sub-phase and the boom/overheating sub-phase); – recession phase (within which one may single out the crash/bust/acute crisis subphase and the downswing sub-phase); – depression/stagnation phase (which we could subdivide into the stabilization subphase and the breakthrough sub-phase). The article provides a detailed qualitative description of macroeconomic dynamics at all the phases; it specifies driving forces of cyclical dynamics and the causes of transition from one phase to another (including psychological causes); a special attention is paid to the turning point from the peak of overheating to the acute crisis, as well as to the turning point from the downswing to recovery. The proposed mathematical model of Juglar cycle takes into account the following effects that are typical for the market economy: • positive feedbacks between various economic processes; • presence of a certain inertia, time lags in reactions of the economic subsystem to the change in conditions; • amplification by the financial subsystem of positive feedbacks and time lags in the economic subsystem; • excessive reaction to changing conditions during the acute crisis sub-phase. The authors suggest that the current crisis turns out to be rather similar to classical Juglar crises; however, there is also a significant difference, as the current crisis occurs at a truly global scale. Yet, due to this truly global scale of the current crisis, the possibilities of regulation with the national state's measures have turned out to be ineffective,whereas the suprastate regulation of financial processes hardly exists. It is shown that all these have led to the reproduction of the current crisis according to a classical Juglar scenario. (shrink)

A reasoned argument or tarka is essential for a wholesome vāda that aims at establishing the truth. A strong tarka constitutes of a number of elements including an anumāna based on a valid hetu. Several scholars, such as Dharmakīrti, Vasubandhu and Dignāga, have worked on theories for the establishment of a valid hetu to distinguish it from an invalid one. This paper aims to interpret Dignāga’s hetu-cakra, called the wheel of grounds, from a modern philosophical perspective by deconstructing it into (...) a simple probabilistic mathematical model. The objective is to understand how and why a vāda based on a probabilistically weaker hetu can degrade into a Jalpa or vitaṇḍā. To do so, the paper maps the concept of ‘Bounded Rationality’ onto the hetu-cakra. Bounded Rationality, an idea coined by the management thinker Herbert Simon, is often employed in understanding decision-making processes of rational agents. In the context of this paper, the concept would state that the prativādin and ālocaka (debater) may not hold unbounded information to back their pratijñā (proposition). The paper argues that within the probabilistically deconstructed hetu-cakra model, most people argue in the ‘Zone of Bounded Rationality’, and thus, the probability of a debate degrading into Jalpa or vitaṇḍā is high. -/- . (shrink)

John Burgess is the author of a rich and creative body of work which seeks to defend classical logic and mathematics through counter-criticism of their nominalist, intuitionist, relevantist, and other critics. This selection of his essays, which spans twenty-five years, addresses key topics including nominalism, neo-logicism, intuitionism, modal logic, analyticity, and translation. An introduction sets the essays in context and offers a retrospective appraisal of their aims. The volume will be of interest to a wide range of readers across philosophy (...) of mathematics, logic, and philosophy of language. (shrink)

Mathematics is obviously important in the sciences. And so it is likely to be equally important in any effort that aims to understand God in a scientifically significant way or that aims to clarify the relations between science and theology. The degree to which God has any perfection is absolutely infinite. We use contemporary mathematics to precisely define that absolute infinity. For any perfection, we use transfinite recursion to define an endlessly ascending series of degrees of that perfection. That series (...) rises to an absolutely infinite degree of that perfection. God has that absolutely infinite degree. We focus on the perfections of knowledge, power, and benevolence. Our model of divine infinity thus builds a bridge between mathematics and theology. (shrink)

In the present article we attempt to show that Aristotle's syllogistic is an underlying logiC which includes a natural deductive system and that it isn't an axiomatic theory as had previously been thought. We construct a mathematical model which reflects certain structural aspects of Aristotle's logic. We examine the relation of the model to the system of logic envisaged in scattered parts of Prior and Posterior Analytics. Our interpretation restores Aristotle's reputation as a logician of consummate imagination and skill. (...) Several attributions of shortcomings and logical errors to Aristotle are shown to be without merit. Aristotle's logic is found to be self-sufficient in several senses: his theory of deduction is logically sound in every detail. (His indirect deductions have been criticized, but incorrectly on our account.) Aristotle's logic presupposes no other logical concepts, not even those of propositional logic. The Aristotelian system is seen to be complete in the sense that every valid argument expressible in his system admits of a deduction within his deductive system: every semantically valid argument is deducible. (shrink)

Scientists use models to know the world. It i susually assumed that mathematicians doing pure mathematics do not. Mathematicians doing pure mathematics prove theorems about mathematical entities like sets, numbers, geometric figures, spaces, etc., they compute various functions and solve equations. In this paper, I want to exhibit models build by mathematicians to study the fundamental components of spaces and, more generally, of mathematical forms. I focus on one area of mathematics where models occupy a (...) central role, namely homotopy theory. I argue that mathematicians introduce genuine models and I offer a rough classification of these models. (shrink)

Open peer commentary on the article “Info-computational Constructivism and Cognition” by Gordana Dodig-Crnkovic. Upshot: I propose a mathematical approach to the framework developed in Dodig-Crnkovic’s target article. It points to an important property of natural computation, called the multiplicity principle (MP), which allows the development of increasingly complex cognitive processes and knowledge. While local dynamics are classically computable, a consequence of the MP is that the global dynamics is not, thus raising the problem of developing more elaborate computations, perhaps (...) with the help of Turing oracles. (shrink)

The shape of hooks is of a taxonomic significance for cestoda. In order to characterize shape through numbers, a mathermatical model of drawings in two-dimensional space is proposed. This model is a synthetic one: first, it uses a large number of points on the edge of a hook-drawing as data; secondly, it enables to draw a specific hook by means of a computer after the parameters have been extracted from the data. The method does not use landmarks and therefore avoids (...) the difficulty of locating them. The ensuing discussion concerns description in common parlanceversus mathermatical language, the genesis of hooks and description in three-dimensional space. (shrink)

A practical viewpoint links reality, representation, and language to calculation by the concept of Turing (1936) machine being the mathematical model of our computers. After the Gödel incompleteness theorems (1931) or the insolvability of the so-called halting problem (Turing 1936; Church 1936) as to a classical machine of Turing, one of the simplest hypotheses is completeness to be suggested for two ones. That is consistent with the provability of completeness by means of two independent Peano arithmetics discussed in Section (...) I. Many modifications of Turing machines cum quantum ones are researched in Section II for the Halting problem and completeness, and the model of two independent Turing machines seems to generalize them. Then, that pair can be postulated as the formal definition of reality therefore being complete unlike any of them standalone, remaining incomplete without its complementary counterpart. Representation is formal defined as a one-to-one mapping between the two Turing machines, and the set of all those mappings can be considered as “language” therefore including metaphors as mappings different than representation. Section III investigates that formal relation of “reality”, “representation”, and “language” modeled by (at least two) Turing machines. The independence of (two) Turing machines is interpreted by means of game theory and especially of the Nash equilibrium in Section IV. Choice and information as the quantity of choices are involved. That approach seems to be equivalent to that based on set theory and the concept of actual infinity in mathematics and allowing of practical implementations. (shrink)

We have developed a simple mathematical model with three physiologically significant states to describe the changes in intrauterine pressure associated with a contraction during human parturition. The myometrium is modelled as a set of smooth muscle cells, each of which is in one of three states (quiescent, contracted, refractory) at a given time. These states are occupied according to a cycle governed by three temporal parameters. The solutions of the equations describing the model show an oscillatory behavior for particular (...) values of these parameters, which is very similar to the time dependant development of intrauterine pressure during labor. Due to its non-linear terms, our model could lead to chaotic oscillations (in the mathematical sense), whose clinical counterpart may occur in cases of dystocia. Despite its simplicity, this model appears to be a useful guide to further investigations of the oscillatory behavior of the myometrium, or other smooth muscles, in normal and pathological situations. (shrink)

[v. 1. Basic theories]--v. 2. Applications.--v. 3. Theory of plants and other essays.

The aim of this paper is to stress some ontological and methodological issues for Agent-Based Model (ABM) building, exploration, and evaluation in the Social and Human Sciences. Two particular domain of interest are to compare ABM and simulations (Model To Model) within a given academic field or across different disciplines and to use ontology for to discuss about the epistemic and methodological consequences of modeling choices. The paper starts with some definitions of ontology in philosophy and computer sciences. The implicit (...) and different ontology which underlies the approach of a same object of interest are discussed in the case of spatial economists and geographers. Finally, using the case of Shelling’s model, we discuss the concept of “ontological test,” and raise the question of the ontological compatibility between the “model world” and the “real world.”. (shrink)

Schistosomiasis, a vector-borne chronically debilitating infectious disease, is a serious public health concern for humans and animals in the affected tropical and sub-tropical regions. We formulate and theoretically analyze a deterministic mathematical model with snail and bovine hosts. The basic reproduction number R0\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_0$$\end{document} is computed and used to investigate the local stability of the model’s steady states. Global stability of the endemic equilibrium is carried out by constructing a suitable Lyapunov (...) function. Sensitivity analysis shows that the basic reproduction number is most sensitive to the model parameters related to the contaminated environment, namely: shedding rate of cercariae by snails, cercariae to miracidia survival probability, snails-miracidia effective contact rate and natural death rate of miracidia and cercariae. Numerical results show that when no intervention measures are implemented, there is an increase of the infected classes, and a rapid decline of the number of susceptible and exposed bovines and snails. Effects of the variation of some of the key sensitive model parameters on the schistosomiasis dynamics as well as on the initial disease transmission threshold parameter R0\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_0$$\end{document} are graphically depicted. (shrink)

The widespread and long-lived failings of academic economics are due to an over-reliance on largely inappropriate mathematical methods of analysis. This is an assessment I have long maintained. Many heterodox economists, however, appear to hold instead that the central problem is a form of political-economic ideology. Specifically, it is widely contended in heterodox circles that the discipline goes astray just because so many economists are committed to a portrayal of the market economy as a smoothly or efficiently functioning system (...) or some such, a portrayal that, whether sincerely held or otherwise, is inconsistent with the workings of social reality. Here I critically examine the contention that a form of political-economic ideology of this sort is the primary problem and assess its explanatory power. I conclude that the contention does not fare very well. I do not, though, deny that ideology of some sort has a major impact on the output of the modern economics academy. However it is of a different nature to the form typically discussed, and works in somewhat indirect and complex ways. Having raised the question of the impact of ideology I take the opportunity to explore its play in the economics academy more generally. (shrink)

We review mathematical models of HIV dynamics, disease progression, and therapy. We start by introducing a basic model of virus infection and demonstrate how it was used to study HIV dynamics and to measure crucial parameters that lead to a new understanding of the disease process. We discuss the diversity threshold model as an example of the general principle that virus evolution can drive disease progression and the destruction of the immune system. Finally, we show how mathematical (...) models can be used to understand correlates of long‐term immunological control of HIV, and to design therapy regimes that convert a progressing patient into a state of long‐term non‐progression. BioEssays 24:1178–1187, 2002. © 2002 Wiley‐Periodicals, Inc. (shrink)

To explore the relation between mathematical models and reality, four different domains of reality are distinguished: observer-independent reality, personal reality, social reality and mathematical/formal reality. The concepts of personal and social reality are strongly inspired by constructivist ideas. Mathematical reality is social as well, but constructed as an autonomous system in order to make absolute agreement possible. The essential problem of mathematical modelling is that within mathematics there is agreement about ‘truth’, but the assignment of (...) mathematics to informal reality is not itself formally analysable, and it is dependent on social and personal construction processes. On these levels, absolute agreement cannot be expected. Starting from this point of view, repercussion of mathematical on social and personal reality, the historical development of mathematical modelling, and the role, use and interpretation of mathematical models in scientific practice are discussed. (shrink)

We present a mathematical bioeconomic model of a fishery with a variable price. The model describes the time evolution of the resource, the fishing effort and the price which is assumed to vary with respect to supply and demand. The supply is the instantaneous catch while the demand function is assumed to be a monotone decreasing function of price. We show that a generic market price equation (MPE) can be derived and has to be solved to calculate non trivial (...) equilibria of the model. This MPE can have 1, 2 or 3 equilibria. We perform the analysis of local and global stability of equilibria. The MPE is extended to two cases: an age-structured fish population and a fishery with storage of the resource. (shrink)

There are presently two leading foreign policy decision-making paradigms in vogue. The first is based on the classical or rational model originally posited by von Neumann and Morgenstern to explain microeconomic decisions. The second is based on the cybernetic perspective whose groundwork was laid by Herbert Simon in his early research on bounded rationality. In this paper we introduce a third perspective — thepoliheuristic theory of decision-making — as an alternative to the rational actor and cybernetic paradigms in international relations. (...) This theory is drawn in large part from research on heuristics done in experimental cognitive psychology. According to the poliheuristic theory, policy makers use poly (many) heuristics while focusing on a very narrow range of options and dimensions when making decisions. Among them, the political dimension is noncompensatory. The paper also delineates the mathematical formulations of the three decision-making models. (shrink)

There are presently two leading foreign policy decision-making paradigms in vogue. The first is based on the classical or rational model originally posited by von Neumann and Morgenstern to explain microeconomic decisions. The second is based on the cybernetic perspective whose groundwork was laid by Herbert Simon in his early research on bounded rationality. In this paper we introduce a third perspective -- the poliheuristic theory of decision-making -- as an alternative to the rational actor and cybernetic paradigms in international (...) relations. This theory is drawn in large part from research on heuristics done in experimental cognitive psychology. According to the poliheuristic theory, policy makers use poly (many) heuristics while focusing on a very narrow range of options and dimensions when making decisions. Among them, the political dimension is noncompensatory. The paper also delineates the mathematical formulations of the three decision-making models. (shrink)

This article contributes to the revision of the procedure of robustness analysis of mathematical models in epistemic democracy using the systematic review method. It identifies the drawbacks of robustness analysis in epistemic democracy in terms of sample universality and inference from samples with the same results. To exemplify the effectiveness of systematic review, this article conducted a pilot review of diversity trumps ability theorem models, which are mathematical models of deliberation often cited by epistemic democrats. (...) A review of nine models extracted from 352 papers exemplifies the effectiveness of robustness analysis supplemented by systematic review in epistemic democracy. (shrink)

The in vitro spontaneous contractions of human myometrium samples can be described using a phenomenological model involving different cell states and adjustable parameters. In patients not receiving hormone treatment, the dynamic behavior could be described using a three-state model similar to the one we have already used to explain the oscillations of intra-uterine pressure during parturition. However, the shape of the spontaneous contractions of myometrium from patients on progestin treatment was different, due to a two-step relaxation regime including a latched (...) phase which cannot be simulated using the previous model without introducing an ad hoc mechanism to account for the extra energy involved in this sustained contraction. One way to do this is to introduce an anomalous rate of ATP consumption, the biochemical reasons for which have not yet been elucidated and which cannot be mathematically simulated using our experimental data. An alternative explanation is the reduced cycling rate of actin-myosin cross-bridges known to occur during the latch-phase. Our experimental findings suggest a third possibility, namely a sol-gel transition with a specific relaxation time constant, which would maintain a significant part of the cell population in the contracted-state until the intracellular-medium returns to its normal fluid behavior. (shrink)

A version of nonstandard analysis, Internal Set Theory, has been used to provide a resolution of Zeno's paradoxes of motion. This resolution is inadequate because the application of Internal Set Theory to the paradoxes requires a model of the world that is not in accordance with either experience or intuition. A model of standard mathematics in which the ordinary real numbers are defined in terms of rational intervals does provide a formalism for understanding the paradoxes. This model suggests that in (...) discussing motion, only intervals, rather than instants, of time are meaningful. The approach presented here reconciles resolutions of the paradoxes based on considering a finite number of acts with those based on analysis of the full infinite set Zeno seems to require. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the classical and quantum mechanics of performing an infinite number of acts in a finite time. (shrink)

The processing of information within the retino-tectal visual system of amphibians is decomposed into five major operational stages, three of them taking place in the retina and two in the optic tectum. The stages in the retina involve (i) a spatially local high-pass filtering in connection to the perception of moving objects, (ii) separation of the receptor activity into ON- and OFF-channels regarding the distinction of objects on both light and dark backgrounds, (iii) spatial integration via near excitation and far-reaching (...) inhibition. Variation of the spatial range of excitation and inhibition allows to account for typical activities observed in a variety of classes of retina ganglion cells.Mathematical description of the operations in the tectum opticum include (i) spatial summation of retinal output (mainly of class-2 and class-3 retina ganglion cells), and (ii) direct or indirect lateral inhibition between tectal cells. In the computer simulation, first the output of the mathematical retina model is computed which, then, is used as the input to the tectum model. The full spatio-temporal dynamics is taken into account. (shrink)

In the present paper, we propose and analyze a harvested predator–prey model that incorporates the dynamics of tourists in the Djoudj National Park of Birds, Senegal. The model describes the impact of migration of waterbirds and seasonal fishing on the global coexistence of species in the site of the Djoudj. By the Mahwin continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory, we investigate the existence of a positive periodic solution. The global asymptotic stability is discussed by constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional. Some (...) computational results are also addressed. (shrink)

In this essay I argue against I. Bernard Cohen's influential account of Newton's methodology in the Principia: the 'Newtonian Style'. The crux of Cohen's account is the successive adaptation of 'mental constructs' through comparisons with nature. In Cohen's view there is a direct dynamic between the mental constructs and physical systems. I argue that his account is essentially hypothetical-deductive, which is at odds with Newton's rejection of the hypothetical-deductive method. An adequate account of Newton's methodology needs to show how Newton's (...) method proceeds differently from the hypothetical-deductive method. In the constructive part I argue for my own account, which is model based: it focuses on how Newton constructed his models in Book I of the Principia. I will show that Newton understood Book I as an exercise in determining the mathematical consequences of certain force functions. The growing complexity of Newton's models is a result of exploring increasingly complex force functions (intra-theoretical dynamics) rather than a successive comparison with nature (extra-theoretical dynamics). Nature did not enter the scene here. This intra-theoretical dynamics is related to the 'autonomy of the models'. (shrink)

Legal scholarship exploring the nature of evidence and the process of juridical proof has had a complex relationship with formal modeling. As evident in so many fields of knowledge, algorithmic approaches to evidence have the theoretical potential to increase the accuracy of fact finding, a tremendously important goal of the legal system. The hope that knowledge could be formalized within the evidentiary realm generated a spate of articles attempting to put probability theory to this purpose. This literature was both insightful (...) and frustrating. Much light was shed on the legal system, but it also quickly became evident that the tools of probability theory were in many ways ill-constructed for the task. Fundamental incompatibilities between the structure of legal decision making and the extant formal tools were identified, and it became evident that many of the purported explanations of legal phenomena were internally inconsistent. As a consequence, interest in this type of formal modeling declined, and attention was directed toward different kinds of explanations of the phenomena. Perhaps under the influence of a recent trend toward various types of formal modeling in legal scholarship, a recent burst of articles, rather than attempting to explain the macro structure of trials, which was the previous object of interest, attempts to quantify the probative value of various items of evidence in ways consistent with the formal features of various probability theories, and then to study decision making from that perspective. For example, the value of evidence is often purported to be its likelihood ratio, that is, the probability of discovering or receiving the evidence given a hypothesis (e.g., the defendant did it) divided by the probability of discovering or receiving the evidence given the negation of the hypothesis (the defendant didn't do it). Alternatively, the value of evidence is purported (more contextually) to be the information gain it provides, defined as the increase in probability it provides for a hypothesis above the probability of the hypothesis based on the other available evidence. Both conceptions then assume that all of the various probability assessments conform or ought to conform to the dictates of Bayes' theorem (that maintains consistency among such assessments); empirical studies are then done testing the extent to which this is so and proposing how the law can increase the probability that it is so. The general criticisms of using Bayes' theorem as a formal model of juridical proof are well known and were integral to the last wave of interest in formal modeling of the evidentiary process. This paper thus for the most part puts aside that more general issue, and focuses specifically on mathematical modeling of the value of particular items of evidence. The paper demonstrates that formal modeling has only limited value in explaining the value of legal evidence, much more limited than those constructing and discussing the models assume, and thus that the conclusions they draw about the value of evidence are unwarranted. This is done through a discussion of four recent examples that attempt to quantify evidence relating to, respectively, carpet fibers, infidelity, DNA random-match evidence, and character evidence used to impeach a witness. This article thus makes two contributions. First, and most importantly, it is another demonstration of the complex relationship between algorithmic tools and legal decision making. Second, at a minimum it points out serious pitfalls for analytical or empirical studies of juridical proof. (shrink)

John P. Burgess, Mathematics, Models, and Modality: Selected Philosophical Essays. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008. xiii + 301 pp. $90.00, £50.00. ISBN 978-0-521-88034-3. Adobe eBook, $...

This paper sets out to show how mathematical modelling can serve as a way of ampliating knowledge. To this end, I discuss the mathematical modelling of time in theoretical physics. In particular I examine the construction of the formal treatment of time in classical physics, based on Barrow’s analogy between time and the real number line, and the modelling of time resulting from the Wheeler-DeWitt equation. I will show how mathematics shapes physical concepts, like time, acting as a (...) heuristic means—a discovery tool—, which enables us to construct hypotheses on certain problems that would be hard, and in some cases impossible, to understand otherwise. (shrink)

Through the use of Bayesian probability theory and Communication theory, a formal mathematical model of a Churchmanian Dialectical Inquirer is developed. The Dialectical Inquirer is based on Professor C. West Churchman's novel interpretation and application of Hegelian dialectics to decision theory. The result is not only the empirical application of dialectical inquiry but also its empirical (i.e., scientific) investigation. The Dialectical Inquirer is seen as especially suited to problems in strategic policy formation and in decision theory. Finally, specific application (...) of the inquirer is made to Popper's notions for ‘The Test of Severity’ of a scientific theory. (shrink)