Popper: Falsification

This paper deals with a relatively recent trend in the history of analytic philosophy, philosophical logic, and theory of science: the philosophical study of the role of inconsistency in empirical science. This paper is divided in three sections that correspond to the three types of inconsistencies identified: (i) factual, occurring between theory and observations, (ii) external, occurring between two mutually contradictory theories, and (iii) internal, characterising theories that entail mutually contradictory statements.

We information-theoretically reformulate two measures of capacity from statistical learning theory: empirical VC-entropy and empirical Rademacher complexity. We show these capacity measures count the number of hypotheses about a dataset that a learning algorithm falsifies when it finds the classifier in its repertoire minimizing empirical risk. It then follows from that the future performance of predictors on unseen data is controlled in part by how many hypotheses the learner falsifies. As a corollary we show that empirical VC-entropy quantifies the message (...) length of the true hypothesis in the optimal code of a particular probability distribution, the so-called actual repertoire. (shrink)

The paper demonstrates that falsifiability is fundamental to learning. We prove the following theorem for statistical learning and sequential prediction: If a theory is falsifiable then it is learnable -- i.e. admits a strategy that predicts optimally. An analogous result is shown for universal induction.

According to falsificationism, a theory is scientific if it can be incompatible with some empirically testable statements. This epistemological approach has been criticized because, in practice, it is impossible to decide when a particular fact should be considered incompatible with a theory. These criticisms, however, neglect the fact that the Popperian sense of falsification is a “logical sense.” Thus, the Popperian criterion of falsifiability only requires that, assuming certain auxiliary hypotheses, the theory in question be logically incompatible with some empirically (...) testable statements. This paper presents a reassessment of these criticisms, justifying that the criterion of falsifiability is unrenounceable insofar as our best theories should aspire to satisfy it. (shrink)

Karl Popper rightly contests the possibility of a verification of basic statements. At the same time he strictly believes in the possibility of growth of empirical knowledge. Knowledge growth, however, is only possible if empirical theories can be falsified. This raises the question, how theories can be falsified, if a verification of those statements that falsify theories – i.e. basic statements – is not possible. This problem is often referred to as the “basic problem” or “problem of the empirical basis”. (...) In this paper I show that – from a logical point of view – a falsification of theories is possible without a verification of basic state-ments. Furthermore I show that knowledge growth in the empirical sciences will be possible if two assumptions are valid. These assumptions can neither be proven nor falsified. However, they have to be postulated by everybody in eve-ryday life. (shrink)

A scientific theory, according to Popper, can be legitimately saved from falsification by introducing an auxiliary hypothesis to generate new, falsifiable predictions. Also, if there are suspicions of bias or error, the researchers might introduce an auxiliary falsifiable hypothesis that would allow testing. But this technique can not solve the problem in general, because any auxiliary hypothesis can be challenged in the same way, ad infinitum. To solve this regression, Popper introduces the idea of ​​a basic statement, an empirical statement (...) that can be used both to determine whether a given theory is falsifiable and, if necessary, to corroborate falsification assumptions. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.22162.09923. (shrink)

Ingineria ontologică, împreună cu tehnologiile Web semantice, permit modelarea și dezvoltarea semantică a fluxului operațional necesar pentru proiectarea TB. Cel mai utilizat sistem de modelare blockchain prin reprezentarea abstractă, descrierea și definirea structurii, a proceselor, a informațiilor și a resurselor, este modelarea intreprinderilor. Modelarea intreprinderii utilizează ontologiile de domeniu folosind limbaje de reprezentare a modelului. Bitcoin este principalul sistem de plată peer-to-peer şi monedă digitală care folosește tehnologia blockchain. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.35908.99201 .

Le falsificationnisme dogmatique accepte la falsifiabilité de toutes les théories scientifiques sans réserve, mais conserve une base empirique infaillible. Il est strictement empirique sans être inductif : il nie que la certitude de la base empirique puisse être transmise aux théories. Ainsi, le falsificationnisme dogmatique est donc la marque de justification la plus faible. Le signe distinctif de la falsification dogmatique est la reconnaissance du fait que toutes les théories sont également conjecturales. La science ne peut prouver aucune théorie, mais (...) elle peut les rejeter. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26963.32807. (shrink)

Selon Popper, une théorie scientifique peut être légitimement sauvée de la falsification en introduisant une hypothèse auxiliaire permettant de générer de nouvelles prédictions falsifiables. De plus, s’il existe des soupçons de biais ou d’erreur, les chercheurs pourraient introduire une hypothèse auxiliaire falsifiable, qui permettrait de procéder à des tests. De nombreux autres auteurs ont proposé des critères pour démarquer la science de la pseudoscience. Celles-ci incluent généralement la croyance en l'autorité, des expériences irremplaçables, des exemples choisis, le manque de volonté (...) de tester, le non-respect des informations de réfutation, un subterfuge intégré, des explications abandonnées sans remplacement. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36437.99041. (shrink)

Suporterii lui Popper au susținut că cele mai multe critici se bazează pe o interpretare neînțeleasă a ideilor sale. Ei afirmă că Popper nu ar trebui interpretat în sensul că falsificabilitatea este o condiție suficientă pentru delimitarea științei. Unele pasaje par să sugereze că el o consideră doar o condiție necesară. Alte pasaje ar sugera că, pentru ca o teorie să fie științifică, Popper impune (pe lângă falsificabilitate) și alte teste, și că rezultatele negative ale testelor sunt acceptate. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.22639.79521.

Imre Lakatos a proposé une modification du critère de Popper, qu'il a qualifié de « falsification sophistiquée (méthodologique) ». De ce point de vue, le critère de délimitation ne devrait pas s'appliquer à une hypothèse ou à une théorie isolée, mais plutôt à l'ensemble d'un programme de recherche. La falsification méthodologique sophistiquée change le problème du mode d’évaluation théorique en problème de l’évaluation des séries théoriques. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25555.73761.

O teorie științifică, conform lui Popper, poate fi salvată în mod legitim de falsificare prin introducerea unei ipoteze auxiliare care să permită generarea de predicții noi, falsificabile. De asemenea, dacă există suspiciuni de părtinire sau eroare, cercetătorii ar putea introduce o ipoteză falsificabilă auxiliară, care să permită testarea. Dar această tehnică nu poate rezolva problema în general, deoarece orice ipoteză auxiliară poate fi contestată în același mod, ad infinitum. Pentru a rezolva această regresiune, Popper introduce ideea unei declarații de bază, (...) o afirmație empirică care poate fi folosită atât pentru a determina dacă o teorie dată este falsificabilă și, dacă este cazul, pentru a corobora ipotezele de falsificare. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.10245.50405 . (shrink)

The delimitation between science and pseudoscience is part of the more general task of determining which beliefs are epistemologically justified. Standards for demarcation may vary by domain, but several basic principles are universally accepted. Karl Popper proposed falsifiability as an important criterion in distinguishing between science and pseudoscience. He argues that verification and confirmation can play no role in formulating a satisfactory criterion of demarcation. Instead, it proposes that scientific theories be distinguished from non-scientific theories by testable claims that future (...) observations might reveal to be false. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.29821.61926. (shrink)

Dogmatic (naturalist) falsificationism accepts the falsifiability of all scientific theories without qualification but preserves an infallible empirical basis. He is strictly empiric without being inductivist: he denies the fact that certainty of the empirical basis can be conveyed to theories. Thus, dogmatic falsificationism is the weakest mark of justification. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.15196.33927 .

Karl Popper a propus falsificabilitatea ca un criteriu important în diferențierea dintre știință și pseudoștiință. El susține că verificarea și confirmarea nu pot juca niciun rol în formularea unui criteriu satisfăcător de delimitare. În schimb, propune ca teoriile științifice să se deosebească de teoriile ne-științifice prin pretenții testabile pe care viitoarele observații le-ar putea dezvălui a fi false. Popper atrage atenția asupra faptului că teoriile științifice sunt caracterizate prin existența unor falsificatori potențiali - declarații care ar putea fi descoperite ca (...) fiind false. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25228.67202. (shrink)

Popper's supporters argued that most criticism is based on an incomprehensible interpretation of his ideas. They argue that Popper should not be interpreted as meaning that falsifiability is a sufficient condition for the demarcation of science. Some passages seem to suggest that he considers it is only a necessary condition. Other passages would suggest that for a theory to be scientific, Popper requires (besides falsifiability) other tests, and that negative test results are accepted. A demarcation criterion based on falsifiability that (...) includes these elements will avoid the most obvious counter-arguments of a criterion based on falsifiability alone. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.30071.47527. (shrink)

Thomas Kuhn a criticat falsificabilitatea pentru că a caracterizat "întreaga întreprindere științifică în termeni care se aplică doar părților revoluționare ocazionale". Potrivit lui Kuhn, modul în care știința funcționează în astfel de ocazii nu poate fi folosit pentru a caracteriza întreaga întreprindere științifică. În opinia lui Kuhn, un criteriu de delimitare trebuie să se refere la funcționarea științei normale. Kuhn obiectează împotriva întregii teorii a lui Popper și exclude orice posibilitate de reconstrucție rațională a dezvoltării științei. În opinia lui Kuhn, (...) nu poate exista logică, ci doar psihologia descoperirii. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16061.92641. (shrink)

Delimitarea dintre știință și pseudoștiință face parte din sarcina mai generală de a determina care credințe sunt justificate epistemic. Știința poate fi descrisă ca fiind parțial descriptivă, parțial normativă. O definiție a științei se poate concentra pe conținutul descriptiv și specifică modul în care termenul este utilizat efectiv, sau, se poate concentra asupra elementului normativ și poate clarifica sensul mai fundamental al termenului. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13182.74569.

Falsificaționismul metodologic este o marcă a convenționalismului. Există o delimitare importantă între teoriile "pasiviste" și "activiste" ale cunoașterii. "Pasiviștii susțin că adevărata cunoaștere este amprenta naturii pe o minte perfect inertă: activitatea mentală poate duce numai la părtinire și distorsiune. Cea mai influentă școală pasivistă este empirismul clasic. "Activiștii" susțin că nu putem citi cartea naturii fără activitate mentală, fără a o interpreta în lumina așteptărilor sau a teoriilor noastre. "Activiștii" conservatori susțin că suntem născuți cu așteptările noastre de bază; (...) cu ele transformăm lumea în "lumea noastră", dar trebuie să trăim pentru totdeauna în închisoarea lumii noastre. Activiștii revoluționari consideră că aceste cadre conceptuale ale noastre pot fi dezvoltate și înlocuite de altele noi și mai bune; noi suntem cei care ne creen "închisorile" și putem, de asemenea, să le demolăm. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36731.05920. (shrink)

Les partisans de Popper ont fait valoir que la plupart des critiques reposaient sur une incompréhension de ses idées. Ils affirment que Popper ne devrait pas être interprété dans le sens où la falsifiabilité est une condition suffisante pour la délimitation de la science. Après avoir abandonné le concept de falsifiabilité, la question de la méthode de démarcation entre science et pseudoscience a été : choisir la théorie la plus probable à des fins pédagogiques, la théorie la plus corroborée par (...) souci de vérité, ou la théorie la plus informative et explicative pour nous rapprocher le plus de réalité ? DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34479.28324. (shrink)

La falsifiabilité de Popper a été critiquée à la fois pour avoir exclu la science légitime et pour avoir accordé un statut scientifique aux pseudo-sciences. Selon Larry Laudan, « cela a la conséquence fâcheuse de considérer comme « scientifique » toute demande faisant de fausses allégations de manière concluante ». Certains reprochent à Popper en disant que sa théorie ne constitue pas une alternative légitime aux propositions inductives qu’il critique. Jeffrey soutient que le bayésianisme, qui insiste sur le point de (...) savoir dans quelle mesure les preuves empiriques appuient une hypothèse, est beaucoup plus proche de la pratique scientifique que la falsifiabilité de Popper. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21235.27680. (shrink)

Karl Popper, ca raționalist critic, a fost un oponent al tuturor formelor de scepticism, convenționalism și relativism în știință. În 1935 a scris Logica cercetării (Logik der Forschung. Zur Erkenntnistheorie der modernen Naturwissenschaft), traducând ulterior cartea în engleză și publicând-o sub titlul The Logic of Scientific Discovery (1959) considerată ca o lucrare de pionierat în domeniu. Multe dintre argumentele din această carte sunt îndreptate împotriva membrilor "Cercului Vienez", precum Moritz Schlick, Otto Neurath, Rudolph Carnap, Hans Reichenbach, Carl Hempel și Herbert (...) Feigl. Popper este de acord cu aceștia cu privire la aspectele generale ale metodologiei științifice și neîncrederea lor în metodologia filosofică tradițională, dar soluțiile sale au fost semnificativ diferite. Popper a contribuit semnificativ la dezbaterile privind metodologia științifică generală, demarcarea științei de pseudoștiință, natura probabilității și metodologia științelor sociale. (shrink)

Thomas Kuhn criticized falsifiability because it characterized "the entire scientific enterprise in terms that apply only to its occasional revolutionary parts," and it cannot be generalized. In Kuhn's view, a delimitation criterion must refer to the functioning of normal science. Kuhn objects to Popper's entire theory and excludes any possibility of rational reconstruction of the development of science. Imre Lakatos said that if a theory is scientific or non-scientific, it can be determined independently of the facts.He proposed a modification of (...) Popper's criterion, which he called "sophisticated (methodological) falsification". DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.30572.82568. (shrink)

La délimitation entre science et pseudoscience fait partie de la tâche plus générale qui consiste à déterminer quelles croyances sont épistémologiquement justifiées. Karl Popper a proposé la falsifiabilité comme critère important de distinction entre science et pseudoscience. Il soutient que la vérification et la confirmation ne peuvent jouer aucun rôle dans la formulation d'un critère de délimitation satisfaisant. Au lieu de cela, il propose que les théories scientifiques soient distinguées des théories non-scientifiques par des affirmations vérifiables que les observations futures (...) pourraient se révéler fausses. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24472.14084. (shrink)

Carnap and Popper proposed ways scientists have to work. According to Carnap, they should look for confirmations for hypotheses. In Popper‘s view, what is important is to try to falsify hypotheses. Cognitive science seems to prove that, in real scientific research, both activities play a role. First, people attempt to confirm hypotheses. Second, they seek examples refuting those hypotheses. This paper is intended to show that the theory of mental models can describe the mental processes involved in both tasks: confirmation (...) and falsification. It addresses the mental possibilities individuals consider in both cases. In addition, the paper reveals that, in accordance with both Carnap‘s framework and Popper‘s approach, both mental activities are related to conditional reasoning. (shrink)

This article revisits Karl Popper’s falsificationist methodology with respect to three tasks. The first is to illuminate and systematize Popper’s methodological views in light of his core epistemological commitments. A second and related objective is to gauge which aspects of falsificationism should be identified as “conventionalist”—a label that Popper himself uses (albeit with qualifications) but that is compromised by and, thus, stands in need of elucidation because of Popper’s idiosyncratic understanding of conventionalism. Third, by elaborating Popper’s virtue-epistemological, dialogical model of (...) rationality, I show how Popper’s conventionalism, fallibilism, and critical rationalism form a coherent system. This system allows Popper to accord science the status of a privileged source of knowledge—without naïve appeal to authority. My systematization of Popper’s views yields an intrinsically and exegetically more satisfactory reading of Popper’s falsificationism than usual presentations. Thanks to its marked flexibility and methodological liberalism, it bypasses many standard objections but still offers sound and relevant methodological advice. With its “virtue-methodological” thrust, Popper sketches an original and promising approach to methodology, the fertility of which deserves further exploration for contemporary debates. (shrink)

In this paper, I set out to critically review the impact of Popperian falsificationism and Lakatosian methodology of scientific research programmes [MSRP] on economic methodology and philosophy of economics. The central thesis I maintain is that neither Popper's falsificationism nor Lakatos' MSRP offers [philosophy of] economics a proper condition for the reception or rejection of economic theories.

This paper reviews how research on the demarcation problem has developed, starting from Popper’s criterion of falsifiability and ending with recent naturalistically oriented approaches. The main differences between traditional and contemporary approaches to the problem are explicated in terms of six postulates called the traditional assumptions. It is argued that all of the assumptions can be dismissed without giving up on the demarcation problem and that doing so might benefit further discussions on pseudoscience. Four present-day research movements on evaluating the (...) boundaries of science are introduced: (1) philosophy of pseudoscience, (2) social epistemology of dissent, (3) agnotology, and (4) evaluation of expertise. Researchers working within these areas have abandoned some or all traditional assumptions. (shrink)

A methodology of science must satisfy two requirements: (i) It must be ampliative: the theories which it generates must make statements that go far beyond any data or observations that may have motivated those theories in the first place. (ii) It must be epistemically probative: it must somehow provide a warrant for believing that the theories so produced are correct, or at least partially correct, even if they can never be fully confirmed. These two requirements pull in opposite directions, and (...) attempts to specify the “scientific method” often focus on one to the exclusion of the other. On a few points there now exists something approaching a consensus. (i) Scientific hypotheses — including, particularly, statements about unobserved or unobservable entities or mechanisms — remain conjectural, no matter how frequently predictions based on those hypotheses are found to coincide with data. (ii) A good (best?) indicator of a theory’s verisimilitude is its ability to successfully predict phenomena which it was not specifically designed to predict. I discuss these ideas with particular reference to cosmological theories. (shrink)

In this paper I formalise the falsificationist proposal omitting Popper’s requirement of consistency. This omission results in (i) trivial theories being falsifiable in an inappropriate sense of the term, but also in (ii) some inconsistent non-trivial theories being so in an appropriate one. This justifies a slight alteration of the definition of falsifiability that excludes (i) but allows (ii). Instead of requiring that a falsifiable theory be consistent, my proposal only requires that the intersection of its classes of potential corroborators (...) and falsifiers be empty. (shrink)

K. R. Popper distinguished between two main uses of logic, the demonstrational one, in mathematical proofs, and the derivational one, in the empirical sciences. These two uses are governed by the following methodological constraints: in mathematical proofs one ought to use minimal logical means (logical minimalism), while in the empirical sciences one ought to use the strongest available logic (logical maximalism). In this paper I discuss whether Popper’s critical rationalism is compatible with a revision of logic in the empirical sciences, (...) given the condition of logical maximalism. Apparently, if one ought to use the strongest logic in the empirical sciences, logic would remain immune to criticism and, thus, non-revisable. I will show that critical rationalism is theoretically compatible with a revision of logic in the empirical sciences. However, a question that remains to be clarified by the critical rationalists is what kind of evidence would lead them to revise the system of logic that underlies a physical theory, such as quantum mechanics? Popper’s falsificationist methodology will be compared with the recently advocated extension of the abductive methodology from the empirical sciences to logic by T. Williamson, since both of them arrive at the same conclusion concerning the status of classical logic. (shrink)

This thesis study is about the leading philosophers of philosophy of science of the twentieth century Karl Popper and Thomas Kuhn and their asserted views about science and scientific knowledge and the method, standard and limit of science. Popper who emphasises the deductive method of science and its standard which should be falsifiable indicates that scientific knowledge should have a testable and falsifiable pattern. Kuhn, on the other hand, discusses the standard of scientificity connected to the existing paradigm and its (...) emerging problem solving in other words he accepts it as a "puzzle solving activity" and terminatively associates scientificity with sociological factors. Accordingly, in this thesis study by taking into consideration Popper and Kuhn's differences of opinion aimed at science and its knowledge, the arguments of development and scientific progress within the frame of their own terminology is being evaluated. Then, Popper and Kuhn's thoughts considering the standards of science and the arguments about progress and development of scientific knowledge is being transferred in a comparable and analytical manner. As a result it is advocated that Popper and Kuhn accept the existence of the change of scientific knowledge based on scientific progress and development and that this change is a change of opinion which is continuing nonstop. (shrink)

After long arguments between positivism and falsificationism, the verification of universal hypotheses was replaced with the confirmation of uncertain major premises. Unfortunately, Hemple proposed the Raven Paradox. Then, Carnap used the increment of logical probability as the confirmation measure. So far, many confirmation measures have been proposed. Measure F proposed by Kemeny and Oppenheim among them possesses symmetries and asymmetries proposed by Elles and Fitelson, monotonicity proposed by Greco et al., and normalizing property suggested by many researchers. Based on the (...) semantic information theory, a measure b* similar to F is derived from the medical test. Like the likelihood ratio, measures b* and F can only indicate the quality of channels or the testing means instead of the quality of probability predictions. Furthermore, it is still not easy to use b*, F, or another measure to clarify the Raven Paradox. For this reason, measure c* similar to the correct rate is derived. Measure c* supports the Nicod Criterion and undermines the Equivalence Condition, and hence, can be used to eliminate the Raven Paradox. An example indicates that measures F and b* are helpful for diagnosing the infection of Novel Coronavirus, whereas most popular confirmation measures are not. Another example reveals that all popular confirmation measures cannot be used to explain that a black raven can confirm “Ravens are black” more strongly than a piece of chalk. Measures F, b*, and c* indicate that the existence of fewer counterexamples is more important than more positive examples’ existence, and hence, are compatible with Popper’s falsification thought. (shrink)

In this review essay of Jan Sprenger and Stephan Hartman's new book Bayesian Philosophy of Science (2019), I discuss the objectivity of Bayesianism, its implications for the scientific realism debates, and the extent to which they have succeeded in formalising Karl Popper's concept of corroboration.

Malgré les critiques de la théorie de Karl Popper sur la falsifiabilité pour la démarcation entre la science et la non-science, principalement la pseudo-science, ce critère est toujours très utile et parfaitement valide après avoir été perfectionné par Popper et ses disciples. De plus, même dans sa version originale, qualifiée de « dogmatique » par Lakatos, Popper n’a pas affirmé que cette méthode constituait un critère absolu de démarcation : un seul contre-exemple ne suffit pas à falsifier une théorie ; (...) une théorie peut légitimement être sauvée de la falsification en introduisant une hypothèse auxiliaire. Comparé à la théorie des révolutions de Kuhn, de qui lui-même s'est dissocié pour la transformer en une théorie des « micro-révolutions », j'estime que la méthode de démarcation de Popper, ainsi que le développement ultérieur proposé par lui, incluant la corroboration et la vraisemblance, même imparfait, n’est pas seulement valable aujourd’hui, mais c’est la meilleure méthodologie de démarcation. -/- SOMMAIRE: -/- Abstract Introduction 1. Le problème de la démarcation 2. Pseudoscience 3. Falsifiabilité 4 Falsification et réfutation 5 Extension de la falsifiabilité 6. Critiques de la falsifiabilité 7 Support de la falsifiabilité 8 Tendance actuelle Conclusions Bibliographie Notes -/- DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19124.60805 . (shrink)

The problem of the empirical basis is one of the most prominent difficulties within the Popperian tradition. Some claim that Popper’s anti-inductivism and antipsychologism lead to the concession that science has no empirical basis. Recent commentators have focused on this problem in Popper’s methodology. However, the problem also arises in a peculiar way in the thought of two underdiscussed members of the Popperian tradition: William Bartley and Paul Feyerabend. In this article, I aim to accomplish three primary goals. First, I (...) argue that defenses of Popper’s solution to the problem of the empirical basis fail to address the deeper issues that have been pointed out by Popper’s critics. Second, I show how, despite Bartley’s efforts, he also succumbs to a modified version of the problem of the empirical basis. However, Bartley’s later work in evolutionary epistemology provides a more sensible response to the problem. Finally, I show how the problem arises in two distinct senses within Feyerabend’s methodology. I show how Feyerabend accidentally dissolves one sense of the problem and then provide a proposal for remedying the second version of the problem. (shrink)

DNA evidence is one of the most significant modern advances in the search for truth since the cross examination, but its format as a random-match-probability makes it difficult for people to assign an appropriate probative value (Koehler, 2001). While Frequentist theories propose that the presentation of the match as a frequency rather than a probability facilitates more accurate assessment (e.g., Slovic et al., 2000), Exemplar-Cueing Theory predicts that the subjective weight assigned may be affected by the frequency or probability format, (...) and how easily examples of the event, i.e., ‘exemplars’, are generated from linguistic cues that frame the match in light of further evidence (Koehler & Macchi, 2004). This paper presents two juror research studies to examine the difficulties that jurors have in assigning appropriate probative value to DNA evidence when contradictory evidence is presented. Study 1 showed that refuting evidence significantly reduced guilt judgments when exemplars were linguistically cued, even when the probability match and the refuting evidence had the same objective probative value. Moreover, qualitative reason for judgment responses revealed that interpreting refuting evidence was found to be complex and not necessarily reductive; refutation was found indicative of innocence or guilt depending on whether exemplars have been cued or not. Study 2 showed that the introduction of judges’ directions to linguistically cue exemplars, did not increase the impact of refuting evidence beyond its objective probative value, but less guilty verdicts were returned when jurors were instructed to consider all possible explanations of the evidence. The results are discussed in light of contradictory frequentist and exemplar-cueing theoretical positions, and their real-world consequences. (shrink)

Based on an analysis of ten popular introductions to social psychology, we will show that Karl Popper's philosophy of ‘critical rationalism’ so far has had little to no traceable influence on the epistemology and practice of social psychology. If Popper is quoted or mentioned in the textbooks at all, the guiding principle of ‘falsificationism’ is reduced to a mere ‘falsifiability’ and some central elements of critical rationalism are left out – those that are incompatible with positivism and inductivism. Echoing earlier (...) attempts to introduce Popper to social psychology by Paul Meehl and Tom Pettigrew, we will argue that a discussing Popper's ideas in more depth could help social psychology to move forward in view of the ‘crisis of confidence’ that has emerged recently in view of the ‘Stapel affair’ and the reports of failures to replicate social psychological experiments in high-powered replication attempts. (shrink)

Karl Popper (1902-1994) was one of the most influential philosophers of science of the 20th century. He made significant contributions to debates concerning general scientific methodology and theory choice, the demarcation of science from non-science, the nature of probability and quantum mechanics, and the methodology of the social sciences. His work is notable for its wide influence both within the philosophy of science, within science itself, and within a broader social context. Popper’s early work attempts to solve the problem of (...) demarcation and offer a clear criterion that distinguishes scientific theories from metaphysical or mythological claims. Popper’s falsificationist methodology holds that scientific theories are characterized by entailing predictions that future observations might reveal to be false. When theories are falsified by such observations, scientists can respond by revising the theory, or by rejecting the theory in favor of a rival or by maintaining the theory as is and changing an auxiliary hypothesis. In either case, however, this process must aim at the production of new, falsifiable predictions. While Popper recognizes that scientists can and do hold onto theories in the face of failed predictions when there are no predictively superior rivals to turn to. He holds that scientific practice is characterized by its continual effort to test theories against experience and make revisions based on the outcomes of these tests. By contrast, theories that are permanently immunized from falsification by the introduction of untestable ad hoc hypotheses can no longer be classified as scientific. Among other things, Popper argues that his falsificationist proposal allows for a solution of the problem of induction, since inductive reasoning plays no role in his account of theory choice. Along with his general proposals regarding falsification and scientific methodology, Popper is notable for his work on probability and quantum mechanics and on the methodology of the social sciences. Popper defends a propensity theory of probability, according to which probabilities are interpreted as objective, mind-independent properties of experimental setups. Popper then uses this theory to provide a realist interpretation of quantum mechanics, though its applicability goes beyond this specific case. With respect to the social sciences, Popper argued against the historicist attempt to formulate universal laws covering the whole of human history and instead argued in favor of methodological individualism and situational logic. Table of Contents 1. Background 2. Falsification and the Criterion of Demarcation a. Popper on Physics and Psychoanalysis b. Auxiliary and Ad Hoc Hypotheses c. Basic Sentences and the Role of Convention d. Induction, Corroboration, and Verisimilitude 3. Criticisms of Falsificationism 4. Realism, Quantum Mechanics, and Probability 5. Methodology in the Social Sciences 6. Popper’s Legacy 7. References and Further Reading a. Primary Sources b. Secondary Sources -/- . (shrink)

En el presente trabajo expongo la propuesta falsacionista de Karl Popper como resultado de su solución al problema de la inducción. En este sentido, la analizo bajo sus dos aspectos, el lógico y el metodológico. La idea detrás de ello es mostrar, en primer lugar, que su solución lógica al problema de la inducción es totalmente independiente de los criterios metodológicos que propone para la elección entre teorías rivales, y en segundo lugar, que estos últimos constituyen una transgresión a su (...) pretendida exclusión de la inducción en la práctica científica. (shrink)

A fundamental tenet of Paul Feyerabend’s pluralistic view of science has it that theory proliferation, that is, the availability of theoretical alternatives, is of crucial importance for the detection of anomalies in established theories. Paul Hoyningen-Huene calls this the Anomaly Importation Thesis, according to which anomalies are imported, as it were, into well-established theories from competing alternatives. This article pursues two major objectives: (a) to work out the systematic details of Feyerabend’s ideas on theory proliferation and anomaly import as they (...) are presented in his early publications and his Against Method and (b) to compare Feyerabend’s ideas on theory proliferation and anomaly import with corresponding features in Popper’s critical rationalist philosophy of science. As it turns out, neither the Principle of Proliferation nor the Anomaly Importation Thesis are necessarily incompatible with critical rationalism. In spite of Feyerabend’s general anti-Popperian attitude, I argue that theoretical pluralism can be seen as an advancement of the critical rationalist philosophy and that critical rationalism provides good arguments for pluralism. (shrink)

Întrebarea de bază este, ce este o pseudoştiinţă? Una din cele mai disputate delimitări ale ştiinţei. Mulţi savanţi de renume mondial, unanim recunoscuţi (ca de ex. Charles Darwin) au cochetat de-a lungul timpului cu diverse aspecte ale pseudoştiinţei considerându-le, cu bună credinţă, drept ştiinţă. Şi multe domenii ale pseudoştiinţei actuale au fost, la vremea lor, considerate drept domenii onorabile ale ştiinţei. Chiar şi în prezent, practicanţii pseudoştiinţelor nu recunosc valabilitatea etichetei puse domeniului lor de activitate. Oamenii de ştiinţă au tendinţa (...) să claseze pe loc un domeniu de activitate, în funcţie de cunoştinţele şi cultura lor, drept ştiinţă sau pseudoştiinţă. Dar graniţa dintre ştiinţă şi pseudoştiinţă este în multe cazuri foarte vagă. Într-un fel, această problemă seamănă cu problema filozofică a stabilirii a ce e bine şi ce e rău. Filosofii ştiinţei, cum ar fi Paul Feyerabend, au susţinut că nu este nici posibil, nici de dorit, o distincţie între ştiinţă şi non-ştiinţă. Printre problemele care pot face distincţia dificilă este viteza variabilă de evoluţie între teoriile şi metodologiile ştiinţei ca răspuns la noile date. În plus, standardele specifice aplicabile unui domeniu al ştiinţei ar putea să nu fie aplicabile în alte domenii. După cum se spune în diferite cursuri despre introducerea în ştiinţe, pseudoştiinţa este oricare subiect care pare a fi ştiinţific la prima vedere, sau ai cărui susţinători susţin că este ştiinţific, dar care contravine condiţiilor de testare sau deviază mult de la alte aspecte fundamentale ale metodelor ştiinţifice. Pseudoştiinţa este caracterizată de folosirea unor afirmaţii vagi, exagerate sau care nu se pot testa, supralicitarea confirmării în detrimentul argumentării, lipsa transparenţei pentru teste realizate de alţi experţi, şi o stagnare în dezvoltarea teoriei. CUPRINS: Pseudoştiinţa - Ştiinţa şi pseudoştiinţa - - Metodologie ştiinţifică - - Falsificabilitatea - - Normele Merton - - Refuzul de a recunoaşte problemele - - Critica termenului - Identificarea pseudoştiinţei - Ştiinţa patologică - - Exemplele lui Langmuir - - - Raze N - - - Exemple ulterioare - - Exemple mai noi - - - Poliapa - - - Fuziunea la rece - - - Memoria apei - Antropomorfism - - În preistorie - - În religie şi mitologie - - - Critici - - În ştiinţă - - - Antonim - Criptozoologia - - Referinţe - - Critici - Pseudomatematica - - Unele taxonomii ale pseudomatematicii - - - Încercările de rezolvare a problemelor clasice imposibil de rezolvat - - Practicanţii - - Un exemplu ilustrativ - Radiestezia - - Originea radiesteziei - - Dispozitivele de detecţie - - - Anse - - Evaluarea ştiinţifică a radiesteziei - - - Studiul Kassel - - - Studiu Betz - - - Explicaţii sugerate - Scientologia - - Credinţe - - - Puntea Libertăţii Totale - - - Morala şi etica - - - Triunghiurile ARC şi KRC - - - Viaţa de apoi - - - Dumnezeu - - - Ştiinţa - - Învăţături şi practici - - - Terminologie - - - Interpretare şi context - - - Învăţarea treptată - - - Audit - - - Organismul - - - Naşterea silenţioasă - - - Sărbători - Sincronicitatea - - Principiul - - Exemplu - - Relaţia cu cauzalitatea - - Critici - Programarea neuro-lingvistică - - Tehnici sau set de practici - - Aplicaţii - - - Psihoterapie - - - Alte utilizări - - NLP ca o cvasi-religie - Manipularea şi automanipularea prin cuvinte - - Aflaţi când şi unde se folosesc cuvintele - - Testaţi pentru a vedea cum reacţionaţi la cuvinte - - Controlul sau manipularea prin cuvinte - - Uitaţi-vă la nivelul cuvintelor - - Vedeţi cum vă pot ajuta cuvintele, făcându-se nu doar utile, ci şi frumoase - - Exploraţi lumea mentală a cuvintelor - - - Încercaţi să exploraţi lumea fără cuvinte - - Priviţi din nou totul, pentru prima dată fără cuvinte Pseudofizica - Anti-gravitaţia - - Efecte convenţionale care imită efectele anti-gravitaţiei - - Soluţii ipotetice - - - Scuturi gravitaţionale - - - Cercetări în relativitatea generală în anii 1950 - - - A cincea forţă - - - "Unităţi distorsionate" în relativitatea generală - - - Breakthrough Propulsion Physics Program - - Încercări experimentale şi comerciale - - - Dispozitive giroscopice - - - Gravitatorul lui Thomas Townsend Brown - - - Cuplarea gravitoelectrică - - - Premiul Göde - Energia orgonică - - Dezvoltarea de către Reich a teoriilor sale orgonice - - Cărţile lui Reich - - Evaluarea teoriei - Eter luminifer - - Dezavantaje şi critici - Fuziunea la rece - - Fuziunea cu bule - - Rezultate - - - Producţia de energie şi căldura în exces - - - Heliu, elemente grele, şi neutroni - - Mecanisme propuse - Planete ipotetice: X / Nibiru - - Teorii ale conspiraţiei - - Reacţii publice - - Influenţa culturală - Poliapa (Apa polimerizată) - Maşini alimentate cu apă - - Ce nu sunt maşini alimentate cu apă - - Extragerea energiei din apă - - Hidrogenul ca supliment - - Pilula de benzină şi aditivi Pseudoarheologia - Caracteristici - - Lipsa metodei ştiinţifice - - Opoziţia la regulile arheologice - - Motivaţii naţionaliste - - Motivaţii religioase - Rasele de bază - - Rase de bază, epoci şi subrase - - - Prima rasă de bază (eterică) - - - A doua rasă de bază (hiperboreană) - - - A treia rasă de bază (lemuriană) - - - A patra rasă de bază (atlantidă) - - - A cincea rasă de bază (ariană) - - - A şasea rasă de bază - - - A şaptea rasă de bază - - Migrarea spre Mercur - - Credinţa teosofică în fraternitatea umanităţii - Protocronism - - Istoria protocronismului - - Scrierea dacică - Pământul gol (Intratereştrii) - - Ipoteza Pământului gol concav - Fenomenul 2012 - - Tortuguero - - Chilam Balam - Creaţia inteligentă - - Concepte - - - Complexitatea ireductibilă - - - Complexitatea specifică - - - Universul bine pus la punct - - - Creatorul inteligent - - Mişcarea creaţia inteligentă - - - Religia şi susţinătorii importanţi - Creaţionismul ştiinţific - - Abordări ale ştiinţei creaţiei - - - Religia - - - Afilieri religioase moderne - - - Abordări ştiinţifice - - Critici - - - Ipoteze metafizice - - - Critici religioase - - - Critici ştiinţifice - - - Critici istorice, filozofice, şi sociologice - - Domenii de studiu - - - Biologia creaţionistă - - - Ştiinţele Pământului şi Geofizica - - - Astronomia şi cosmologia - Ufologia - - Statutul ca disciplină ştiinţifică - - - Pseudoştiinţă - - - Aspecte metodologice - Teoria astronautului extraterestru - - Argumente şi susţinători - - Erich von Däniken - - Ipoteza creaţiei - - - Argumentul genetic - - - Cercetarea genetică şi evoluţia creierului Medicina alternativă - Tipuri de medicină alternativă - - Sisteme bazate pe convingeri neştiinţifice sau practici tradiţionale - - Energii supranaturale şi interpretări eronate ale energiilor fizice - Ayurveda - Homeopatia - - Remedii şi tratamente - - - Pregătirea - - - Diluţii - - - Patogeneza - - Reglementări şi prevalenţe - - Opoziţia publică - Medicina energetică - - Clasificarea metodelor - - Convingeri - - Cercetări ştiinţifice - - - Vindecarea la distanţă - - - Vindecarea prin contact - - - Baza de date - - Explicaţii alternative pentru rapoarte pozitive - Reiki - - Practica - - - Vindecarea - - - Tratamentul întregului organism - - - Tratament localizat - - - Respiraţia - - - Trei piloni de bază - Terapia de conversie - Metoda Bates pentru îmbunătăţirea vederii - - Concepte - - - Acomodarea - - - Cauze ale problemelor de vedere - Detoxifierea - - Detoxifierea în medicina alternativă - - - Istoric - - - Tampoane de curăţare şi detoxifiere - - Tipuri de detoxifiere - - - Dezintoxicarea de alcool - - - Dezintoxicarea de droguri - - - Detoxifiere metabolică - - - Medicina alternativă - - Modalităţi de detoxifiere - - - Diete de detoxifiere - - - Curăţirea colonului - - - Metale grele - - - Dispozitive de detoxifiere - - Terapia de chelare - - - Detoxifierea proteică - - Detoxifierea anusului şi intestinelor cu cafea - - - Efecte şi riscuri - - Plasturi (tampoane) de detoxifiere aplicate pe picioare - - - Ce sunt plasturii de detoxifiere (tampoanele de detoxifiere) pentru picior? - - - De ce se aplică plasturii pe picioare? - Fizionomia - - Origini moderne - - Perioada de popularitate - - Ştiinţa modernă - - Utilizarea modernă - Frenologia Paranormal - Activităţi paranormale - - Fantome şi alte entităţi spirituale - - Viaţa extraterestră şi OZN-urile - - Criptide - Cercetări în paranormal - - Abordări anecdotice - - Abordarea observaţiilor participanţilor - - Anomalistica - - Neuroştiinţa - - Critici - Vitalism - - Filozofia - - Ştiinţa - - - Relaţia cu emergentismul - - Mesmerism - - Medicina complementară şi alternativă - Aura - - Tradiţii spirituale - - Teste - - Explicaţii - Profeţii - - Definiţii - - Civilizaţii antice - - Credinţa Bahá'í - - Budism - - China - Religiile abrahamice - - Iudaism - - - She'ol - Experienţe aproape de moarte - - Caracteristici - Viaţa de Apoi (Viaţa de după moarte) - - Filozofia vieţii de Apoi - - - Filozofia modernă - - - Filozofia procesului - - Ştiinţa despre viaţa de Apoi - Modele metafizice ale Vieţii de Apoi - - Reîncarnarea - - Raiul şi iadul - - Limbo - - Purgatoriul - Nemurirea - - Abordări ştiinţifice - - Abordări religioase - - Nemurirea biologică - - - Specii biologice nemuritoare - - - Evoluţia îmbătrânirii - - Speranţe privind nemurirea biologică umană - - - Substanţe care prelungesc durata de viaţă - - - Nemurirea tehnologică - - - Crionica - - - Încărcarea minţii la calculator - - - Cibernetica - - - Nemurirea evoluţionară - Strigoi - Fantome - - Tipologia - - - Context antropologic - - Fantomele şi viaţa de apoi - - Teama de fantome - - Atribute comune - - Locaţii - Locaţii paranormale - România - - Judeţul Bacău - - - Conacul Zarifopol, în Filipeşti - - Bucureşti - - - Mănăstirea Chiajna - - - Hotel Cişmigiu - - - "Casa Diavolului", pe strada General Praporgescu - - - Orfelinatul pe strada Franceză - - - Casa Vernescu pe Calea Victoriei - - - Iazul Vrăjitoarelor - - Judeţul Călăraşi - - - Pădurea Călugăreasa - - Judeţul Cluj - - - Castelul Bánffy - - - Pădurea Hoia - - Judeţul Dâmboviţa - - - Trinitatea Miresei pe DN7 - - Judeţul Dolj - - - Pădurea Radovan - - Judeţul Iaşi - - - Casa Gavril Buzatu pe Manta Roşie - - - Dealul Lunganilor - - Judeţul Maramureş - - - Drumul European E58 lângă Cicărlău Parapsihologia - Terminologie - Cercetări - - Domenii - - Metodologie - - Cercetări experimentale - Percepţiile extrasenzoriale - - Investigarea parapsihologică - - Percepţiile extrasenzoriale şi hipnoza - Psihochinezia (telechinezia) - - Credinţa - - - Subdomenii ale telechineziei - - - Aptitudini notabile ale capabilităţilor psihocinetice Ezoterism - Etimologie - Cosmologia ezoterică - - Gnosticism - - Cabala - - Neoplatonism - - Teosofia şi antroposofia - - Max Theon şi "filosofia cosmică" - Ocultism - - Ştiinţă şi ocultism - - - Calităţi oculte - Magia - - Caracteristici comune în practica magiei - - - Ritualuri - - - Simboluri magice - - - Limbajul magiei - - - Magicieni - - - Vrăjitoria - - Teorii - - - Origini antropologice şi psihologice - Clarviziunea - - Aspecte ale clarviziunii - - Vizualizarea de la distanţă - Geomanţia - Tarot - - Arcana mare şi arcana mică - - Utilizare - - - Cărţi inversate - - - Desfăşurări - Masoneria - - Istoria masoneriei - - Loja masonică - - Structura masoneriilor - - - Recunoaşterea masonică reciprocă - Taoism - - Categorisire - - Ceaiul şi taoismul - - Credinţe taoiste - - Principii - - - Tao - - - De (Te) - - - Wu wei - - - Pu - - Spiritualitatea - - Escatologia Astrologia - Principii şi practici - - Astrologia occidentală - - Astrologia hindusă - - Astrologia chineză şi din Asia de Est - Astrologia şi ştiinţa - - Delimitarea - Astrohărţi - Principiile de bază ale astrologiei - - Modele astrologice - - Astrologia predictivă - Tradiţii în astrologie - - Tradiţii istorice - - Tradiţii ezoterice - Horoscop - - Etimologie - - Concepte în astrologia occidentală - - - Unghiuri - - - Zodiacul - - - Case - - Construcţia unui horoscop în astrologia occidentală - - - Case - - - Plasamente ale planetelor - - - Aspecte - - - Ascendentul - - Horoscopul chinez - Bioritm - - Teoria - - Calculul - - Plauzibilitate Vrăjitoria - Definiţii - Practici invocate de vrăjitoare - - Descântece - - Invocarea morţii - Vrăjitoarele bune - Demonologia Referinţe Despre autor - Nicolae Sfetcu - - De același autor - - Contact Editura - MultiMedia Publishing . 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The paper explores possible influences that recent developments in the field of a branch of AI called Automated Discovery Systems might have upon some aspects of the old debate between Francis Bacon’s inductivism and Karl Popper’s falsificationism. Francis Bacon advocates mechanical induction as the legitimate, infallible method of science, and Karl Popper proposes his famous falsificationist view, according to which science proceeds by subsequent conjectures and refutations, and the question about where scientific hypotheses come from neither needs, nor is capable (...) of, logical analysis. The traditional method of discussing such methodological debates relies on the analysis of various historical examples of discoveries in order to see how well the two models of scientific method account for them. (shrink)

The paper aims to expound on the issue of science being different from non science or prescience in the form of the scientific methodology used. Popper’s method of falsifiability ensures the aim of science to be successful. The aim of science which also needs a critical attitude, can enable scientific progress by rejecting inductivism as its scientific methodology. Popper’s view on what the aim of science is and why and how inductivism fails in the case of science, along with examples (...) from history of science besides its impact on philosophical foundations of science, has been stressed in the paper. (shrink)

What sets the practice of rigorously tested, sound science apart from pseudoscience? In this volume, the contributors seek to answer this question, known to philosophers of science as “the demarcation problem.” This issue has a long history in philosophy, stretching as far back as the early twentieth century and the work of Karl Popper. But by the late 1980s, scholars in the field began to treat the demarcation problem as impossible to solve and futile to ponder. However, the essays that (...) Massimo Pigliucci and Maarten Boudry have assembled in this volume make a rousing case for the unequivocal importance of reflecting on the separation between pseudoscience and sound science. (shrink)

This article shows that Popper’s measure of corroboration is inapplicable if, as Popper argued, the logical probability of synthetic universal statements is zero relative to any evidence that we might possess. It goes on to show that Popper’s definition of degree of testability, in terms of degree of logical content, suffers from a similar problem. 1 The Corroboration Function and P(h|b) 2 Degrees of Testability and P(h|b).

The problem of rational prediction, launched by Wesley Salmon, is without doubt the Achilles heel of the critical method defended by Popper. In this paper, I assess the response given both by Popper and by the popperian Alan Musgrave to this problem. Both responses are inadequate and thus the conclusion of Salmon is reinforced: without appeal to induction, there is no way to make of the practical prediction a rational action. Furthermore, the critical method needs to be vindicated if one (...) pretends that its application is suitable for the preference of a hypothesis. I argue that the nature of this vindication is such that it may be applied also to induction. Thus, to be a popperian is a good reason also to be an inductivist. (shrink)