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Results for 'Frequentist interpretation of probability'
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- A frequentist interpretation of probability for model-based inductive inference.Aris Spanos - 2013 - Synthese 190 (9):1555-1585.The main objective of the paper is to propose a frequentist interpretation of probability in the context of model-based induction, anchored on the Strong Law of Large Numbers (SLLN) and justifiable on empirical grounds. It is argued that the prevailing views in philosophy of science concerning induction and the frequentist interpretation of probability are unduly influenced by enumerative induction, and the von Mises rendering, both of which are at odds with frequentist model-based induction (...)
- The Interpretation of Probability: Still an Open Issue? 1.Maria Carla Galavotti - 2017 - Philosophies 2 (3):20.Probability as understood today, namely as a quantitative notion expressible by means of a function ranging in the interval between 0–1, took shape in the mid-17th century, and presents both a mathematical and a philosophical aspect. Of these two sides, the second is by far the most controversial, and fuels a heated debate, still ongoing. After a short historical sketch of the birth and developments of probability, its major interpretations are outlined, by referring to the work of their (...)No categories
- Finite frequentism explains quantum probability.Simon Saunders - unknownI show that frequentism, as an explanation of probability in classical statistical mechanics, can be extended in a natural way to a decoherent quantum history space, the analogue of a classical phase space. The result is a form of finite frequentism, in which Gibbs’ concept of an infinite ensemble of gases is replaced by the quantum state expressed as a superposition of a finite number of decohering microstates. It is a form of finite and actual frequentism (as opposed to (...)
- Remarks on the idealist and empiricist interpretation of frequentism: Robert Leslie Ellis versus John Venn.Lukas M. Verburgt - 2014 - BSHM Bulletin: Journal of the British Society for the History of Mathematics 29 (3):184-195.The goal of this paper is to correct a widespread misconception about the work of Robert Leslie Ellis and John Venn, namely that it can be considered as the ‘British empiricist’ reaction against the traditional theory of probability. It is argued, instead, that there was no unified ‘British school’ of frequentism during the nineteenth century. Where Ellis arrived at frequentism from a metaphysical idealist transformation of probability theory’s mathematical calculations, Venn did so on the basis of an empiricist (...)Export citation
Bookmark - Finitistic and Frequentistic Approximation of Probability Measures with or without σ-Additivity.G. Schurz & H. Leitgeb - 2008 - Studia Logica 89 (2):257-283.In this paper a theory of finitistic and frequentistic approximations — in short: f-approximations — of probability measures P over a countably infinite outcome space N is developed. The family of subsets of N for which f-approximations converge to a frequency limit forms a pre-Dynkin system $${{D\subseteq\wp(N)}}$$. The limiting probability measure over D can always be extended to a probability measure over $${{\wp(N)}}$$, but this measure is not always σ-additive. We conclude that probability measures can be (...)
- Interpretations of probability in evolutionary theory.Roberta L. Millstein - 2003 - Philosophy of Science 70 (5):1317-1328.Evolutionary theory (ET) is teeming with probabilities. Probabilities exist at all levels: the level of mutation, the level of microevolution, and the level of macroevolution. This uncontroversial claim raises a number of contentious issues. For example, is the evolutionary process (as opposed to the theory) indeterministic, or is it deterministic? Philosophers of biology have taken different sides on this issue. Millstein (1997) has argued that we are not currently able answer this question, and that even scientific realists ought to remain (...)
- Interpretations of probability.Alan Hájek - 2007 - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
- An interpretation of probability in the law of evidence based on pro-et-contra argumentation.Lennart Åqvist - 2007 - Artificial Intelligence and Law 15 (4):391-410.The purpose of this paper is to improve on the logical and measure-theoretic foundations for the notion of probability in the law of evidence, which were given in my contributions Åqvist [ (1990) Logical analysis of epistemic modality: an explication of the Bolding–Ekelöf degrees of evidential strength. In: Klami HT (ed) Rätt och Sanning (Law and Truth. A symposium on legal proof-theory in Uppsala May 1989). Iustus Förlag, Uppsala, pp 43–54; (1992) Towards a logical theory of legal evidence: semantic (...)
- On the correct interpretation of p values and the importance of random variables.Guillaume Rochefort-Maranda - 2016 - Synthese 193 (6):1777-1793.The p value is the probability under the null hypothesis of obtaining an experimental result that is at least as extreme as the one that we have actually obtained. That probability plays a crucial role in frequentist statistical inferences. But if we take the word ‘extreme’ to mean ‘improbable’, then we can show that this type of inference can be very problematic. In this paper, I argue that it is a mistake to make such an interpretation. (...)
- No Interpretation of Probability.Wolfgang Schwarz - 2018 - Erkenntnis 83 (6):1195-1212.I argue that none of the usual interpretations of probability provide an adequate interpretation of probabilistic theories in science. Assuming that the aim of such theories is to capture noisy relationships in the world, I suggest that we do not have to give them classical truth-conditional content at all: their probabilities can remain uninterpreted. Indirectly, this account turns out to explain what is right about the frequency interpretation, the best-systems interpretation, and the epistemic interpretation.
- The Interpretation of Probability in the Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus.Malvina Ongaro - 2021 - Wittgenstein-Studien 12 (1):131-144.In this paper, I propose an assessment of the interpretation of the mathematical notion of probability that Wittgenstein presents in TLP (1963: 5.15 – 5.156). I start by presenting his definition of probability as a relation between propositions. I claim that this definition qualifies as a logical interpretation of probability, of the kind defended in the same years by J. M. Keynes. However, Wittgenstein’s interpretation seems prima facie to be safe from two standard objections (...)
- Causal Interpretations of Probability.Wolfgang Pietsch - unknownThe prospects of a causal interpretation of probability are examined. Various accounts both from the history of scientific method and from recent developments in the tradition of the method of arbitrary functions, in particular by Strevens, Rosenthal, and Abrams, are briefly introduced and assessed. I then present a specific account of causal probability with the following features: First, the link between causal probability and a particular account of induction and causation is established, namely eliminative induction and (...)
- Interpretations of Probability.Alan Hájek - 2014 - In Edward N. Zalta (ed.), The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Stanford, CA: The Metaphysics Research Lab.No categories
- Interpretations of Probability and Bayesian Inference—an Overview.Peter Lukan - 2020 - Acta Analytica 35 (1):129-146.In this article, I first give a short outline of the different interpretations of the concept of probability that emerged in the twentieth century. In what follows, I give an overview of the main problems and problematic concepts from the philosophy of probability and show how they relate to Bayesian inference. In this overview, I emphasise that the understanding of the main concepts related to different interpretations of probability influences the understanding and status of Bayesian inference. In (...)No categories
- Interpretations of Probability.Weimin Sun - 2003 - Dissertation, The University of ConnecticutIn this dissertation I aim to clarify the concept of probability. There are three kinds of interpretation of probability: the objective interpretation, the logical interpretation, and the subjective interpretation. The objective interpretation understands probability as a natural property that exists independently of our minds. I will clarify and defend one version of objective probability---the propensity interpretation of probability. I reject the logical interpretation of probability that treatsExport citation Bookmark
- Subjectivity of pre-test probability value: controversies over the use of Bayes’ Theorem in medical diagnosis.Tomasz Rzepiński - 2023 - Theoretical Medicine and Bioethics 44 (4):301-324.This article discusses the use of Bayes’ Theorem in medical diagnosis with a view to examining the epistemological problems of interpreting the concept of pre-test probability value. It is generally maintained that pre-test probability values are determined subjectively. Accordingly, this paper investigates three main philosophical interpretations of probability (the “classic” one, based on the principle of non-sufficient reason, the frequentist one, and the personalistic one). This study argues that using Bayes’ Theorem in medical diagnosis does not (...)
- The propensity interpretation of probability.Karl R. Popper - 1959 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 10 (37):25-42.
- Interpretations of Probability in Quantum Mechanics: A Case of “Experimental Metaphysics”.Geoffrey Hellman - 2009 - In Wayne C. Myrvold & Joy Christian (eds.), Quantum Reality, Relativistic Causality, and Closing the Epistemic Circle. Springer. pp. 211--227.
- Interpretations of probability.Armin Schulz - 2010 - In Jon Williamson & Federica Russo (eds.), Key Terms in Logic. pp. 81.Key Terms in Logic offers the ideal introduction to this core area in the study of philosophy, providing detailed summaries of the important concepts in the study of logic and the application of logic to the rest of philosophy. A brief introduction provides context and background, while the following chapters offer detailed definitions of key terms and concepts, introductions to the work of key thinkers and lists of key texts. Designed specifically to meet the needs of students and assuming no (...)No categories
- Interpretations of probability.Armin Schulz - 2010 - In Jon Williamson & Federica Russo (eds.), Key Terms in Logic. The key terms in philosophy. London, U.K.: Continuum.Key Terms in Logic offers the ideal introduction to this core area in the study of philosophy, providing detailed summaries of the important concepts in the study of logic and the application of logic to the rest of philosophy. A brief introduction provides context and background, while the following chapters offer detailed definitions of key terms and concepts, introductions to the work of key thinkers and lists of key texts. Designed specifically to meet the needs of students and assuming no (...)No categories
- Interpretations of probability.Armin Schulz - 2010 - In Jon Williamson & Federica Russo (eds.), Key Terms in Logic. The key terms in philosophy. London: Continuum. pp. 81.Key Terms in Logic offers the ideal introduction to this core area in the study of philosophy, providing detailed summaries of the important concepts in the study of logic and the application of logic to the rest of philosophy. A brief introduction provides context and background, while the following chapters offer detailed definitions of key terms and concepts, introductions to the work of key thinkers and lists of key texts. Designed specifically to meet the needs of students and assuming no (...)No categories
- The Propensity Interpretation of Probability: A Re-evaluation.Joseph Berkovitz - 2015 - Erkenntnis 80 (S3):629-711.Single-case and long-run propensity theories are among the main objective interpretations of probability. There have been various objections to these theories, e.g. that it is difficult to explain why propensities should satisfy the probability axioms and, worse, that propensities are at odds with these axioms, that the explication of propensities is circular and accordingly not informative, and that single-case propensities are metaphysical and accordingly non-scientific. We consider various propensity theories of probability and their prospects in light of (...)
- Interpretation of Probability in Evolutionary Theory.Ryota Morimoto - 2009 - Kagaku Tetsugaku 42 (1):83-96.
- Ergodic theory, interpretations of probability and the foundations of statistical mechanics.Janneke van Lith - 2001 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 32 (4):581--94.The traditional use of ergodic theory in the foundations of equilibrium statistical mechanics is that it provides a link between thermodynamic observables and microcanonical probabilities. First of all, the ergodic theorem demonstrates the equality of microcanonical phase averages and infinite time averages (albeit for a special class of systems, and up to a measure zero set of exceptions). Secondly, one argues that actual measurements of thermodynamic quantities yield time averaged quantities, since measurements take a long time. The combination of these (...)
- A propensity interpretation of probability.Karl Popper - 2010 - In Antony Eagle (ed.), Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings. New York: Routledge.
- The emergence and interpretation of probability in Bohmian mechanics.Craig Callender - 2007 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 38 (2):351-370.A persistent question about the deBroglie–Bohm interpretation of quantum mechanics concerns the understanding of Born’s rule in the theory. Where do the quantum mechanical probabilities come from? How are they to be interpreted? These are the problems of emergence and interpretation. In more than 50 years no consensus regarding the answers has been achieved. Indeed, mirroring the foundational disputes in statistical mechanics, the answers to each question are surprisingly diverse. This paper is an opinionated survey of this literature. (...)
- Group Level Interpretations of Probability: New Directions.Darrell Patrick Rowbottom - 2013 - Pacific Philosophical Quarterly 94 (2):188-203.In this article, I present some new group level interpretations of probability, and champion one in particular: a consensus-based variant where group degrees of belief are construed as agreed upon betting quotients rather than shared personal degrees of belief. One notable feature of the account is that it allows us to treat consensus between experts on some matter as being on the union of their relevant background information. In the course of the discussion, I also introduce a novel distinction (...)
- Interpretations of probability.Jon Williamson & Federica Russo - 2010 - In Jon Williamson & Federica Russo (eds.), Key Terms in Logic. pp. 81.Key Terms in Logic offers the ideal introduction to this core area in the study of philosophy, providing detailed summaries of the important concepts in the study of logic and the application of logic to the rest of philosophy. A brief introduction provides context and background, while the following chapters offer detailed definitions of key terms and concepts, introductions to the work of key thinkers and lists of key texts. Designed specifically to meet the needs of students and assuming no (...)No categories
- interpretation of probabilities, 243-244 big bang, 82, 101 block universe, 112, 114,252 Bohm's theory, 51-53.I. V. Loop - 2002 - In T. Placek & J. Butterfield (eds.), Non-Locality and Modality. Kluwer Academic Publishers. pp. 343.Export citation Bookmark
- The emergence and interpretation of probability in Bohmian mechanics.Craig Callender - 2006 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 38 (2):351-370.A persistent question about the deBroglie–Bohm interpretation of quantum mechanics concerns the understanding of Born’s rule in the theory. Where do the quantum mechanical probabilities come from? How are they to be interpreted? These are the problems of emergence and interpretation. In more than 50 years no consensus regarding the answers has been achieved. Indeed, mirroring the foundational disputes in statistical mechanics, the answers to each question are surprisingly diverse. This paper is an opinionated survey of this literature. (...)
- Pragmatism and the Birth of Subjective Probability.Maria Carla Galavotti - 2019 - European Journal of Pragmatism and American Philosophy 11 (1).Pragmatism, taken not just as a philosophical movement but as a way of addressing problems, strongly influenced the debate on the foundations of probability during the first half of the twentieth century. Upholders of different interpretations of probability such as Hans Reichenbach, Ernest Nagel, Rudolf Carnap, Frank Ramsey, and Bruno de Finetti, acknowledged their debt towards pragmatist philosophers, including Charles Sanders Peirce, William James, Clarence Irving Lewis, William Dewey and Giovanni Vailati. In addition, scientist-philosophers like Ernst Mach, Ludwig (...)
- Bayesian versus frequentist clinical trials.David Teira - 2011 - In Gifford Fred (ed.), Philosophy of Medicine. Amsterdam: Elsevier. pp. 255-297.I will open the first part of this paper by trying to elucidate the frequentist foundations of RCTs. I will then present a number of methodological objections against the viability of these inferential principles in the conduct of actual clinical trials. In the following section, I will explore the main ethical issues in frequentist trials, namely those related to randomisation and the use of stopping rules. In the final section of the first part, I will analyse why RCTs (...)
- Group level interpretations of probability : new directions.Darrell Patrick Rowbottom - unknownIn this article, I present some new group level interpretations of probability, and champion one in particular: a consensus-based variant where group degrees of belief are construed as agreed upon betting quotients rather than shared personal degrees of belief. One notable feature of the account is that it allows us to treat consensus between experts on some matter as being on the union of their relevant background information. In the course of the discussion, I also introduce a novel distinction (...)
- Quantum mechanics and interpretations of probability theory.Neal Grossman - 1972 - Philosophy of Science 39 (4):451-460.Several philosophers of science have claimed that the conceptual difficulties of quantum mechanics can be resolved by appealing to a particular interpretation of probability theory. For example, Popper bases his treatment of quantum mechanics on the propensity interpretation of probability, and Margenau bases his treatment of quantum mechanics on the frequency interpretation of probability. The purpose of this paper is (i) to consider and reject such claims, and (ii) to discuss the question of whether (...)
- Resurrecting logical probability.James Franklin - 2001 - Erkenntnis 55 (2):277-305.The logical interpretation of probability, or "objective Bayesianism'' – the theory that (some) probabilities are strictly logical degrees of partial implication – is defended. The main argument against it is that it requires the assignment of prior probabilities, and that any attempt to determine them by symmetry via a "principle of insufficient reason" inevitably leads to paradox. Three replies are advanced: that priors are imprecise or of little weight, so that disagreement about them does not matter, within limits; (...)
- Time and the propensity interpretation of probability.Niall Shanks - 1993 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 24 (2):293 - 302.The prime concern of this paper is with the nature of probability. It is argued that questions concerning the nature of probability are intimately linked to questions about the nature of time. The case study here concerns the single case propensity interpretation of probability. It is argued that while this interpretation of probability has a natural place in the quantum theory, the metaphysical picture of time to be found in relativity theory is incompatible with (...)
- Vi. deconstructive interpretations of semiosis.Deconstructive Interpretations Of Semiosis - forthcoming - Semiotics.Export citation Bookmark
- The reference class problem is your problem too.Alan Hájek - 2007 - Synthese 156 (3):563--585.The reference class problem arises when we want to assign a probability to a proposition (or sentence, or event) X, which may be classified in various ways, yet its probability can change depending on how it is classified. The problem is usually regarded as one specifically for the frequentist interpretation of probability and is often considered fatal to it. I argue that versions of the classical, logical, propensity and subjectivist interpretations also fall prey to their (...)
- Frequentist statistical inference without repeated sampling.Paul Vos & Don Holbert - 2022 - Synthese 200 (2):1-25.Frequentist inference typically is described in terms of hypothetical repeated sampling but there are advantages to an interpretation that uses a single random sample. Contemporary examples are given that indicate probabilities for random phenomena are interpreted as classical probabilities, and this interpretation of equally likely chance outcomes is applied to statistical inference using urn models. These are used to address Bayesian criticisms of frequentist methods. Recent descriptions of p-values, confidence intervals, and power are viewed through the (...)No categories
- Interpreting Probability: Controversies and Developments in the Early Twentieth Century.James M. Joyce - 2004 - Philosophical Review 113 (3):438-441.Philosophers can learn a lot about scientific methodology when great scientists square off to debate the foundations of their discipline. The Leibniz/newton controversy over the nature of physical space and the Einstein/bohr exchanges over quantum theory provide paradigm examples of this phenomenon. David Howie’s splendid recent book describes another philosophically laden dispute of this sort. Throughout the 1930s, R. A. Fisher and Harold Jeffries squabbled over the methodology for the nascent discipline of statistics. Their debate has come to symbolize the (...)
- The Modern Epistemic Interpretations of Probability: Logicism and Subjectivism.Maria Carla Galavotti - 2011 - In Dov M. Gabby & John Woods (eds.), Handbook of the History of Logic: Inductive Logic. North Holland: Amsterdam. pp. 153--203.
- The Propensity Interpretation of Fitness and the Propensity Interpretation of Probability.Isabelle Drouet & Francesca Merlin - 2015 - Erkenntnis 80 (S3):457-468.The paper provides a new critical perspective on the propensity interpretation of fitness, by investigating its relationship to the propensity interpretation of probability. Two main conclusions are drawn. First, the claim that fitness is a propensity cannot be understood properly: fitness is not a propensity in the sense prescribed by the propensity interpretation of probability. Second, this interpretation of probability is inessential for explanations proposed by the PIF in evolutionary biology. Consequently, interpreting the (...)
- Reductive relations in interpretations of probability.Jan Von Plato - 1981 - Synthese 48 (1):61 - 75.
- On the interpretation of probabilities in generalized probabilistic models.Federico Holik, Sebastian Fortin, Gustavo Bosyk & Angelo Plastino - 2016 - In José Acacio de Barros, Bob Coecke & E. Pothos (eds.), Quantum Interaction. QI 2016. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Vol. 10106. Springer, Cham. pp. 194-205.We discuss generalized pobabilistic models for which states not necessarily obey Kolmogorov's axioms of probability. We study the relationship between properties and probabilistic measures in this setting, and explore some possible interpretations of these measures.
- Statistical inference without frequentist justifications.Jan Sprenger - 2010 - In M. Dorato M. Suàrez (ed.), Epsa Epistemology and Methodology of Science. Springer. pp. 289--297.Statistical inference is often justified by long-run properties of the sampling distributions, such as the repeated sampling rationale. These are frequentist justifications of statistical inference. I argue, in line with existing philosophical literature, but against a widespread image in empirical science, that these justifications are flawed. Then I propose a novel interpretation of probability in statistics, the artefactual interpretation. I believe that this interpretation is able to bridge the gap between statistical probability calculations and (...)
- Reductive relations in interpretations of probability.Jan Plato - 1981 - Synthese 48 (1):61-75.
- Operationism, probability and quantum mechanics.Maria Carla Galavotti - 1995 - Foundations of Science 1 (1):99-118.This paper investigates the kind of empiricism combined with an operationalist perspective that, in the first decades of our Century, gave rise to a turning point in theoretical physics and in probability theory. While quantum mechanics was taking shape, the classical (Laplacian) interpretation of probability gave way to two divergent perspectives: frequentism and subjectivism. Frequentism gained wide acceptance among theoretical physicists. Subjectivism, on the other hand, was never held to be a serious candidate for application to physical (...)
- A Peircean Interpretation of Probability In Quantum Mechanics.Martin Macháček - 2018 - Semiotics 2018:233-241.No categories
- Confirmation and the intersubjective interpretation of probability.Darrell Patrick Rowbottom - unknown
- On the interpretation of probability calculi Ernest Nagel.E. Beth - 1946 - Synthese 5 (1-2):92-95.
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