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  1. Randomness and Teleology in a Conscious Universe.Marco Masi - manuscript
    A common line of reasoning that argues against teleological conjectures in physics, cosmology, and especially evolutionary biology, resorts to statistical concepts based on notions of randomness, unpredictability or chance. A conceptual relationship between the aleatory uncertainty of a process and its inherent lack of goal-directedness is often taken for granted. This relies on a misunderstanding of the real significance of stochastic concepts importing a popular semantics into scientific considerations, which leads to unwarranted conclusions. We felt it necessary to clarify terms (...)
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  2. Dynamic Probability and the Problem of Initial Conditions.Michael Strevens - 2021 - Synthese 199 (5-6):14617-14639.
    Dynamic approaches to understanding probability in the non-fundamental sciences turn on certain properties of physical processes that are apt to produce “probabilistically patterned” outcomes. The dynamic properties on their own, however, seem not quite sufficient to explain the patterns; in addition, some sort of assumption about initial conditions must be made, an assumption that itself typically takes a probabilistic form. How should such a posit be understood? That is the problem of initial conditions. Reichenbach, in his doctoral dissertation, floated a (...)
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  3. Interpreting the Probabilities in Plantinga’s Evolutionary Argument Against Naturalism.Gary Neels - forthcoming - International Journal for Philosophy of Religion:1-13.
    In this paper, I examine Plantinga’s (1993, 2000, 2011) Evolutionary Argument Against Naturalism (EAAN). While there has been much discussion about Plantinga’s use of probabilities in the argument, I contend that insufficient attention has been paid to the question of how we are to interpret those probabilities. In this paper, I argue that views Plantinga defends elsewhere limit the range of interpretations available to him here. The upshot is that the EAAN is more limited in its applicability than Plantinga alleges.
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  4. “Adding Up” Reasons: Lessons for Reductive and Nonreductive Approaches.Shyam Nair - 2021 - Ethics 132 (1):38-88.
    How do multiple reasons combine to support a conclusion about what to do or believe? This question raises two challenges: How can we represent the strength of a reason? How do the strengths of multiple reasons combine? Analogous challenges about confirmation have been answered using probabilistic tools. Can reductive and nonreductive theories of reasons use these tools to answer their challenges? Yes, or more exactly: reductive theories can answer both challenges. Nonreductive theories, with the help of a result in confirmation (...)
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  5. The Time Asymmetry of Quantum Mechanics and Concepts of Physical Directionality of Time Part 1.Andrew Thomas Holster - manuscript
    This is Part 1 of a four part paper, intended to redress some of the most fundamental confusions in the subject of physical time directionality, and represent the concepts accurately. There are widespread fallacies in the subject that need to be corrected in introductory courses for physics students and philosophers. We start in Part 1 by analysing the time reversal symmetry of quantum probability laws. Time reversal symmetry is defined as the property of invariance under the time reversal transformation, T: (...)
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  6. Time Flow and Reversibility in a Probabilistic Universe.Andrew Thomas Holster - 1990 - Dissertation, Massey University
    A fundamental problem in understanding the nature of time is explaining its directionality. This 1990 PhD thesis re-examines the concepts of time flow, the physical directionality of time, and the semantics of tensed language. Several novel results are argued for that contradict the orthodox anti-realist views still dominant in the subject. Specifically, the concept of "metaphysical time flow" is supported as a valid scientific concept, and argued to be intrinsic to the directionality of objective probabilities in quantum mechanics; the common (...)
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  7. Tracing Concepts to Needs.Matthieu Queloz - 2021 - The Philosopher 109 (3):34–39.
    Why is the concept of truth so important to us? After all, it is not at all obvious why human intelligence would have evolved to do anything other than to dissimulate, deceive, cheat, and trick. Pragmatic genealogies like the genealogies of the value of truth told by Nietzsche and Williams can help us grasp why we think as we do. But instead of explaining concepts by tracing them to antecedent objects in reality, they trace them to practical needs and reverse-engineer (...)
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  8. Философски поглед към въвеждането на отрицателна и комплексна вероятност в квантовата информация.Vasil Penchev - 2012 - Philosophical Alternatives 21 (1):63-78.
    Математическата величина на вероятността се определя стандартно като положително реално число в затворения интервал от нула до единица, еднозначно опредимо в съотвествие с няколко аксиоми, напр. тези на Колмпгоров. Нейната философска интерпретация е на мярка за част от цяло. В теорията на квантовата информация, изследваща явленията на сдвояване [entanglement] в квантовата механика, се въвеждат отрицателни и комплексни вероятности. Статията обсъжда проблема какво би следвало да бъде тяхното релевантно философско тълкувание.
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  9. "Objective Purport, Relational Confirmation, and the Presumption of Moral Objectivism: A Probabilistic Argument From Moral Experience".Tanner Hammond - 2021 - Southwest Philosophy Review 37 (1).
    All else being equal, can granting the objective purport of moral experience support a presumption in favor of some form of moral objectivism? Don Loeb (2007) has argued that even if we grant that moral experience appears to present us with a realm of objective moral fact—something he denies we have reason to do in the first place—the objective purport of moral experience cannot by itself provide even prima facie support for moral objectivism. In this paper, I contend against Loeb (...)
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  10. The Premises of Condorcet’s Jury Theorem Are Not Simultaneously Justified.Franz Dietrich - 2008 - Episteme 5 (1):56-73.
    Condorcet's famous jury theorem reaches an optimistic conclusion on the correctness of majority decisions, based on two controversial premises about voters: they are competent and vote independently, in a technical sense. I carefully analyse these premises and show that: whether a premise is justi…ed depends on the notion of probability considered; none of the notions renders both premises simultaneously justi…ed. Under the perhaps most interesting notions, the independence assumption should be weakened.
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  11. Carnap's Foundation of Probability Theory.D. van Dantzig - 1949 - Synthese 8 (1):459-470.
  12. Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions.Vincent Hendricks & Alan Hajek (eds.) - 2009 - Birkerød, Denmark: Automatic Press.
    Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits in these respects. Interviews with Nick Bingham, Luc Bovens, Terrence L. Fine, Haim Gaifman, Donald Gillies, James Hawthorne, Carl Hoefer, James M. Joyce, Joseph B. Kadane Isaac Levi, D.H. Mellor, Patrick Suppes, Jan (...)
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  13. De Se Beliefs and Centred Uncertainty.Silvia Milano - 2018 - Dissertation, London School of Economics and Political Science
    What kind of thing do you believe when you believe that you are in a certain place, that it is a certain time, and that you are a certain individual? What happens if you get lost, or lose track of the time? Can you ever be unsure of your own identity? These are the kind of questions considered in my thesis. Beliefs about where, when and who you are are what are called in the literature de se, or self-locating beliefs. (...)
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  14. Modal Insurance: Probabilities, Risk, and Degrees of Luck.Evan Malone - 2019 - Southwest Philosophical Studies 41.
    Many widely divergent accounts of luck have been offered or employed in discussing an equally wide range of philosophical topics. We should, then, expect to find some unified philosophical conception of luck of which moral luck, epistemic luck, and luck egalitarianism are species. One of the attempts to provide such an account is that offered by Duncan Pritchard, which he refers to as the modal account. This view commits us to calling an event lucky when it obtains in this world, (...)
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  15. A World of Probability: Experience and Prediction By Hans Reichenbach. [REVIEW]Eleanor Bisbee - 1938 - Philosophy of Science 5 (3):360-366.
  16. From Values to Probabilities.Wlodek Rabinowicz - 2017 - Synthese 194 (10):3901-3929.
    According to the fitting-attitude analysis of value , to be valuable is to be a fitting object of a pro-attitude. In earlier publications, setting off from this format of analysis, I proposed a modelling of value relations which makes room for incommensurability in value. In this paper, I first recapitulate the value modelling and then move on to suggest adopting a structurally similar analysis of probability. Indeed, many probability theorists from Poisson onwards did adopt an analysis of this kind. This (...)
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  17. Vague Credence.Aidan Lyon - 2017 - Synthese 194 (10):3931-3954.
    It is natural to think of precise probabilities as being special cases of imprecise probabilities, the special case being when one’s lower and upper probabilities are equal. I argue, however, that it is better to think of the two models as representing two different aspects of our credences, which are often vague to some degree. I show that by combining the two models into one model, and understanding that model as a model of vague credence, a natural interpretation arises that (...)
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  18. A Theory of Physical Probability.Richard Johns (ed.) - 2002 - University of Toronto Press.
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  19. The Foundations of Scientific Inference.Wesley Charles Salmon - 1966 - Pittsburgh, PA, USA: University of Pittsburgh Press.
    This is an authoritative and up-to-date treatment of the subject, and yet it is relatively brief and nontechnical.
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  20. The Design Inference: Eliminating Chance Through Small Probabilities.Jordan Howard Sobel - 2003 - Mind 112 (447):521-525.
  21. Probability, Induction and Statistics. Kyburg - 1973 - Philosophy of Science 40 (3):451-453.
  22. Review of Notes on Philosophy, Probability and Mathematics by Frank Plumpton Ramsey; Maria Carla Galavotti. [REVIEW]Maria Concetta Di Maio - 1994 - Philosophy of Science 61 (3):487-489.
  23. Chance and Probability in Poincaré’s Epistemology.Jacintho Del Vecchio Junior - 2016 - Philosophia Scientae 20:177-196.
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  24. Probability. [REVIEW]Mauricio Suárez - 2011 - Theoria: Revista de Teoría, Historia y Fundamentos de la Ciencia 26 (1):99-103.
  25. The Enterprise of Knowledge: An Essay on Knowledge, Credal Probability, and Chance.Mark Kaplan - 1983 - Philosophical Review 92 (2):310.
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  26. An Objective Theory of Probability.Mark Pastin & D. A. Gillies - 1975 - Philosophical Review 84 (2):270.
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  27. Scientific Inference.Stephen F. Barker - 1958 - Philosophical Review 67 (3):404.
  28. XIV—Probability as the Logic of Science.Mary Hesse - 1972 - Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 72 (1):257-272.
  29. III.—The Philosophy of Probability.Arthur Boutwood - 1902 - Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 2 (1):74-104.
  30. XIII.—The Philosophy of Probability.A. Wolf - 1913 - Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 13 (1):328-361.
  31. Probability and Statistics in Historical PerspectiveThe Probabilistic Revolution. Volume I: Ideas in History. Lorenz Kruger, Lorraine J. Daston, Michael HeidelbergerThe Probabilistic Revolution. Volume II: Ideas in Science. Lorenz Kruger, Gerd Gigerenzer, Mary S. MorganClassical Probability in the Enlightenment. Lorraine J. Daston. [REVIEW]Donald MacKenzie - 1989 - Isis 80 (1):116-124.
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  32. Subjective Probabilities Inferred From Decisions.Ward Edwards - 1962 - Psychological Review 69 (2):109-135.
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  33. The Probability Approach and Nomothetic Theory.Leo Postman - 1955 - Psychological Review 62 (3):218-225.
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  34. Probability in the Philosophy of Religion.Dave Leal - 2016 - Philosophical Quarterly 66 (264):652-655.
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  35. Group Level Interpretations of Probability : New Directions.Darrell Patrick Rowbottom - unknown
    In this article, I present some new group level interpretations of probability, and champion one in particular: a consensus-based variant where group degrees of belief are construed as agreed upon betting quotients rather than shared personal degrees of belief. One notable feature of the account is that it allows us to treat consensus between experts on some matter as being on the union of their relevant background information. In the course of the discussion, I also introduce a novel distinction between (...)
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  36. Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability.Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman - 1973 - Cognitive Psychology 5 (2):207-232.
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  37. Johannes von Kries’s Objective Probability as a Semi-Classical Concept. Prehistory, Preconditions and Problems of a Progressive Idea.Helmut Pulte - 2016 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 47 (1):109-129.
    Johannes von Kries’s Spielraum-theory is regarded as one of the most important philosophical contributions of the nineteenth century to an objective interpretation of probability. This paper aims at a critical and contextual analysis of von Kries’s approach: It is contextual insofar as it reconstructs the Spielraum-theory in the historical setting that formed his scientific and philosophical outlook. It is critical insofar as it unfolds systematic tensions and inconsistencies which are rooted in this context, especially in the grave change of mechanism (...)
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  38. The Rise of Modern Probability Theory.S. L. Zabell - 2000 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 31 (1):109-116.
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  39. Trends in the Philosophy of Probability.Matthias Hild - 2000 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 31 (3):419-422.
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  40. Subjective Probability Assessments of the Incidence of Unethical Behavior: The Importance of Scenario-Respondent Fit.Darlene Bay & Alexey Nikitkov - 2011 - Business Ethics: A European Review 20 (1):1-11.
  41. Probability in GRW Theory.Roman Frigg & Carl Hoefer - 2007 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 38 (2):371-389.
    GRW Theory postulates a stochastic mechanism assuring that every so often the wave function of a quantum system is `hit', which leaves it in a localised state. How are we to interpret the probabilities built into this mechanism? GRW theory is a firmly realist proposal and it is therefore clear that these probabilities are objective probabilities (i.e. chances). A discussion of the major theories of chance leads us to the conclusion that GRW probabilities can be understood only as either single (...)
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  42. The Emergence and Interpretation of Probability in Bohmian Mechanics.Craig Callender - 2007 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 38 (2):351-370.
    A persistent question about the deBroglie–Bohm interpretation of quantum mechanics concerns the understanding of Born’s rule in the theory. Where do the quantum mechanical probabilities come from? How are they to be interpreted? These are the problems of emergence and interpretation. In more than 50 years no consensus regarding the answers has been achieved. Indeed, mirroring the foundational disputes in statistical mechanics, the answers to each question are surprisingly diverse. This paper is an opinionated survey of this literature. While acknowledging (...)
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  43. Decisions Without Sharp Probabilities.Paul Weirich - 2015 - Philosophia Scientae 19:213-225.
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  44. The Concept of Probability in the Mathematical Representation of Reality.Hans Reichenbach - 2008 - Open Court: La Salle.
    The first English translation of Hans Reichenbach's lucid doctoral thesis sheds new light on how Kant’s Critique of Pure Reason was understood in some quarters at the time. The source of several themes in his still influential The Direction of Time, the thesis shows Reichenbach's early focus on the interdependence of physics, probability, and epistemology.
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  45. Probability: Theory and Examples.Rick Durrett - 2005 - Thomson.
    This book is an introduction to probability theory covering laws of large numbers, central limit theorems, random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theorems, and Brownian motion. It is a comprehensive treatment concentrating on the results that are the most useful for applications. Its philosophy is that the best way to learn probability is to see it in action, so there are 200 examples and 450 problems.
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  46. Probability Theory. The Logic of Science.Edwin T. Jaynes - 2003 - Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
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  47. Philosophical Theories of Probability.Donald Gillies - 2000 - Routledge.
    The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. _Philosophical Theories of Probability_ is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.
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  48. The World According to De Finetti.Joseph Berkovitz - unknown
    Bruno de Finetti is one of the founding fathers of the subjectivist school of probability, where probabilities are interpreted as rational degrees of belief. His work on the relation between the theorems of probability and rationality is among the corner stones of modern subjective probability theory. De Finetti maintained that rationality requires that degrees of belief be coherent, and he argued that the whole of probability theory could be derived from these coherence conditions. De Finetti’s interpretation of probability has been (...)
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  49. History of the Modern Probability Philosophy.Seifedine Kadry - 2014 - Open Journal of Philosophy 4 (2):130-133.
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  50. Probability.Darrell Patrick Rowbottom - 2015 - Polity.
    When a doctor tells you there’s a one percent chance that an operation will result in your death, or a scientist claims that his theory is probably true, what exactly does that mean? Understanding probability is clearly very important, if we are to make good theoretical and practical choices. In this engaging and highly accessible introduction to the philosophy of probability, Darrell Rowbottom takes the reader on a journey through all the major interpretations of probability, with reference to real–world situations. (...)
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