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  1. A Note on Incomplete Theory.Han Geurdes - manuscript
    In the paper it is demonstrated that Bell's theorem is unproveable.
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  2. Jacques Lacan’s Registers of the Psychoanalytic Field, Applied Using Geometric Data Analysis to Edgar Allan Poe’s “The Purloined Letter”.Fionn Murtagh & Giuseppe Iurato - manuscript
    In a first investigation, a Lacan-motivated template of the Poe story is fitted to the data. A segmentation of the storyline is used in order to map out the diachrony. Based on this, it will be shown how synchronous aspects, potentially related to Lacanian registers, can be sought. This demonstrates the effectiveness of an approach based on a model template of the storyline narrative. In a second and more Comprehensive investigation, we develop an approach for revealing, that is, uncovering, Lacanian (...)
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  3. Enhancing Student Understanding of Color Perception: A Teaching Activity on Intersubjective Color Variations.Dimitria Electra Gatzia, Richard Einsporn & Rex Ramsier - forthcoming - American Biology Teacher.
    Abstract: -/- We present a teaching activity, whose aim is to enhance students’ understanding of color perception by introducing them to intersubjective color variations among normal perceivers. The approach can be used in different disciplines, including biology, philosophy, psychology, physics, or statistics, for different purposes and with college students having various levels of sophistication and scientific training.
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  4. Implementing Dempster-Shafer Theory for Property Similarity in Conceptual Spaces Modeling.Jeremy R. Chapman, John L. Crassidis, James Llinas, Barry Smith & David Kasmier - 2022 - Sensor Systems and Information Systems IV, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) SCITECH Forum 2022.
    Previous work has shown that the Complex Conceptual Spaces − Single Observation Mathematical framework is a useful tool for event characterization. This mathematical framework is developed on the basis of Conceptual Spaces and uses integer linear programming to find the needed similarity values. The work of this paper is focused primarily on space event characterization. In particular, the focus is on the ranking of threats for malicious space events such as a kinetic kill. To make the Conceptual Spaces framework work, (...)
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  5. Changing Use of Formal Methods in Philosophy: Late 2000s Vs. Late 2010s.Samuel Fletcher, Joshua Knobe, Gregory Wheeler & Brian Woodcock - 2021 - Synthese 199 (5-6):14555-14576.
    Traditionally, logic has been the dominant formal method within philosophy. Are logical methods still dominant today, or have the types of formal methods used in philosophy changed in recent times? To address this question, we coded a sample of philosophy papers from the late 2000s and from the late 2010s for the formal methods they used. The results indicate that the proportion of papers using logical methods remained more or less constant over that time period but the proportion of papers (...)
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  6. Misalignment Between Research Hypotheses and Statistical Hypotheses: A Threat to Evidence-Based Medicine?Insa Lawler & Georg Zimmermann - 2021 - Topoi 40 (2):307-318.
    Evidence-based medicine frequently uses statistical hypothesis testing. In this paradigm, data can only disconfirm a research hypothesis’ competitors: One tests the negation of a statistical hypothesis that is supposed to correspond to the research hypothesis. In practice, these hypotheses are often misaligned. For instance, directional research hypotheses are often paired with non-directional statistical hypotheses. Prima facie, one cannot gain proper evidence for one’s research hypothesis employing a misaligned statistical hypothesis. This paper sheds lights on the nature of and the reasons (...)
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  7. Papias's Prologue and the Probability of Parallels.Nevin Climenhaga - 2020 - Journal of Biblical Literature 139 (3):591-596.
    Several scholars, including Martin Hengel, R. Alan Culpepper, and Richard Bauckham, have argued that Papias had knowledge of the Gospel of John on the grounds that Papias’s prologue lists six of Jesus’s disciples in the same order that they are named in the Gospel of John: Andrew, Peter, Philip, Thomas, James, and John. In “A Note on Papias’s Knowledge of the Fourth Gospel” (JBL 129 [2010]: 793–794), Jake H. O’Connell presents a statistical analysis of this argument, according to which the (...)
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  8. Scientific Self-Correction: The Bayesian Way.Felipe Romero & Jan Sprenger - 2020 - Synthese (Suppl 23):1-21.
    The enduring replication crisis in many scientific disciplines casts doubt on the ability of science to estimate effect sizes accurately, and in a wider sense, to self-correct its findings and to produce reliable knowledge. We investigate the merits of a particular countermeasure—replacing null hypothesis significance testing with Bayesian inference—in the context of the meta-analytic aggregation of effect sizes. In particular, we elaborate on the advantages of this Bayesian reform proposal under conditions of publication bias and other methodological imperfections that are (...)
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  9. The Radiocarbon Dating of the Turin Shroud: New Evidence From Raw Data.Tristan Casabianca, Emanuela Marinelli, Giuseppe Pernagallo & Benedetto Torrisi - 2019 - Archaeometry 5 (61):1223-1231.
    In 1988, three laboratories performed a radiocarbon analysis of the Turin Shroud. The results, which were centralized by the British Museum and published in Nature in 1989, provided ‘conclusive evidence’ of the medieval origin of the artefact. However, the raw data were never released by the institutions. In 2017, in response to a legal request, all raw data kept by the British Museum were made accessible. A statistical analysis of the Nature article and the raw data strongly suggests that homogeneity (...)
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  10. Why Do We Need to Employ Bayesian Statistics and How Can We Employ It in Studies of Moral Education?: With Practical Guidelines to Use JASP for Educators and Researchers.Hyemin Han - 2018 - Journal of Moral Education 47 (4):519-537.
    ABSTRACTIn this article, we discuss the benefits of Bayesian statistics and how to utilize them in studies of moral education. To demonstrate concrete examples of the applications of Bayesian statistics to studies of moral education, we reanalyzed two data sets previously collected: one small data set collected from a moral educational intervention experiment, and one big data set from a large-scale Defining Issues Test-2 survey. The results suggest that Bayesian analysis of data sets collected from moral educational studies can provide (...)
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  11. An Open Database of Productivity in Vietnam's Social Sciences and Humanities for Public Use.Quan-Hoang Vuong, Viet-Phuong La, Thu-Trang Vuong, Manh-Toan Ho, Hong K. T. Nguyen, Viet-Ha T. Nguyen, Hiep-Hung Pham & Manh-Tung Ho - 2018 - Scientific Data (Nature) 5 (180188):1-15.
    This study presents a description of an open database on scientific output of Vietnamese researchers in social sciences and humanities, one that corrects for the shortcomings in current research publication databases such as data duplication, slow update, and a substantial cost of doing science. Here, using scientists’ self-reports, open online sources and cross-checking with Scopus database, we introduce a manual system and its semi-automated version of the database on the profiles of 657 Vietnamese researchers in social sciences and humanities who (...)
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  12. Understanding Polarization: Meaning, Measures, and Model Evaluation.Aaron Bramson, Patrick Grim, Daniel J. Singer, William Berger, Graham Sack, Steven Fisher, Carissa Flocken & Bennett Holman - 2017 - Philosophy of Science 84:115-159.
    Polarization is a topic of intense interest among social scientists, but there is significant disagreement regarding the character of the phenomenon and little understanding of underlying mechanics. A first problem, we argue, is that polarization appears in the literature as not one concept but many. In the first part of the article, we distinguish nine phenomena that may be considered polarization, with suggestions of appropriate measures for each. In the second part of the article, we apply this analysis to evaluate (...)
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  13. Causal Analysis of an Agent-Based Model of Human Behaviour.Marcel Kvassay, Peter Krammer, Ladislav Hluchý & Bernhard Schneider - 2017 - Complexity 2017:1-18.
    This article investigates causal relationships leading to emergence in an agent-based model of human behaviour. A new method based on nonlinear structural causality is formulated and practically demonstrated. The method is based on the concept of a causal partition of a model variable which quantifies the contribution of various factors to its numerical value. Causal partitions make it possible to judge the relative importance of contributing factors over crucial early periods in which the emergent behaviour of a system begins to (...)
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  14. Uncertainty in Hiring Does Not Justify Affirmative Action.Thomas Mulligan - 2017 - Philosophia 45 (3):1299-1311.
    Luc Bovens has recently advanced a novel argument for affirmative action, grounded in the plausible idea that it is hard for an employer to evaluate the qualifications of candidates from underrepresented groups. Bovens claims that this provides a profit-maximizing employer with reason to shortlist prima facie less-qualified candidates from underrepresented groups. In this paper, I illuminate three flaws in Bovens’s argument. First, it suffers from model error: A rational employer does not incur costs to scrutinize candidates when it knows their (...)
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  15. Expectational V. Instrumental Reasoning: What Statistics Contributes to Practical Reasoning.Mariam Thalos - 2017 - Diametros 53:125-149.
    Utility theories—both Expected Utility (EU) and non-Expected Utility (non-EU) theories—offer numericalized representations of classical principles meant for the regulation of choice under conditions of risk—a type of formal representation that reduces the representation of risk to a single number. I shall refer to these as risk-numericalizing theories of decision. I shall argue that risk-numericalizing theories (referring both to the representations and to the underlying axioms that render numericalization possible) are not satisfactory answers to the question: “How do I take the (...)
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  16. Disambiguation of Social Polarization Concepts and Measures.Aaron Bramson, Patrick Grim, Daniel J. Singer, Steven Fisher, William Berger, Graham Sack & Carissa Flocken - 2016 - Journal of Mathematical Sociology 40:80-111.
    ABSTRACT This article distinguishes nine senses of polarization and provides formal measures for each one to refine the methodology used to describe polarization in distributions of attitudes. Each distinct concept is explained through a definition, formal measures, examples, and references. We then apply these measures to GSS data regarding political views, opinions on abortion, and religiosity—topics described as revealing social polarization. Previous breakdowns of polarization include domain-specific assumptions and focus on a subset of the distribution’s features. This has conflated multiple, (...)
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  17. Neonatal Diagnostics: Toward Dynamic Growth Charts of Neuromotor Control.Elizabeth B. Torres, Beth Smith, Sejal Mistry, Maria Brincker & Caroline Whyatt - 2016 - Frontiers in Pediatrics 4:121.
    The current rise of neurodevelopmental disorders poses a critical need to detect risk early in order to rapidly intervene. One of the tools pediatricians use to track development is the standard growth chart. The growth charts are somewhat limited in predicting possible neurodevelopmental issues. They rely on linear models and assumptions of normality for physical growth data – obscuring key statistical information about possible neurodevelopmental risk in growth data that actually has accelerated, non-linear rates-of-change and variability encompassing skewed distributions. Here, (...)
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  18. The Ontology of Biological and Clinical Statistics (OBCS) for Standardized and Reproducible Statistical Analysis.Jie Zheng, Marcelline R. Harris, Anna Maria Masci, Lin Yu, Alfred Hero, Barry Smith & Yongqun He - 2016 - Journal of Biomedical Semantics 7 (53).
    Statistics play a critical role in biological and clinical research. However, most reports of scientific results in the published literature make it difficult for the reader to reproduce the statistical analyses performed in achieving those results because they provide inadequate documentation of the statistical tests and algorithms applied. The Ontology of Biological and Clinical Statistics (OBCS) is put forward here as a step towards solving this problem. Terms in OBCS, including ‘data collection’, ‘data transformation in statistics’, ‘data visualization’, ‘statistical data (...)
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  19. Philosophical Controversies in the Evaluation of Medical Treatments : With a Focus on the Evidential Roles of Randomization and Mechanisms in Evidence-Based Medicine.Alexander Mebius - 2015 - Dissertation, KTH Royal Institute of Technology
    This thesis examines philosophical controversies surrounding the evaluation of medical treatments, with a focus on the evidential roles of randomised trials and mechanisms in Evidence-Based Medicine. Current 'best practice' usually involves excluding non-randomised trial evidence from systematic reviews in cases where randomised trials are available for inclusion in the reviews. The first paper challenges this practice and evaluates whether adding of evidence from non-randomised trials might improve the quality and precision of some systematic reviews. The second paper compares the alleged (...)
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  20. Refrain From Standards? French, Cavemen and Computers. A (Short) Story of Multidimensional Analysis in French Prehistoric Archaeology.Sébastien Plutniak - 2015 - In Oliver Schlaudt & Lara Huber (eds.), Standardization in Measurement. Philosophical and Sociological Issues. Londra, Regno Unito: pp. 39-52.
    Focusing on the history of prehistoric archaeology in the 20th century, this papers shows (1) that statistical multidimensional analyses were carried out by a new kind of actors who challenged the previous common language shared by prehistorians. This fundamental change was important, considering that (2) language is a fundamental point for the epistemology of archaeology. However, a comparison of multidimensional analyses applications over time shall make clear that (3) the differences are mostly a generational matter: the transmission processes between them (...)
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  21. The Inflationary and Deflationary Trends in the Global Economy, or ‘the Japanese Disease’ is Spreading.Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2014 - Journal of Globalization Studies 5 (2):152-173.
    The danger of deflation has been rather frequently mentioned recently among nu-merous concerns over the European and partly American economies. Analysts cite the Japanese economy which has been suffering from deflation for the last two decades despite the large investments in economy and the government's efforts to increase inflation. Similarly, notwithstanding many trillions of dollars, euro, pounds and yen that were invested in economies over the past few years, the infla-tion in the Western countries still remains low. On the whole, (...)
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  22. Optimization Models for Reaction Networks: Information Divergence, Quadratic Programming and Kirchhoff’s Laws.Julio Michael Stern - 2014 - Axioms 109:109-118.
    This article presents a simple derivation of optimization models for reaction networks leading to a generalized form of the mass-action law, and compares the formal structure of Minimum Information Divergence, Quadratic Programming and Kirchhoff type network models. These optimization models are used in related articles to develop and illustrate the operation of ontology alignment algorithms and to discuss closely connected issues concerning the epistemological and statistical significance of sharp or precise hypotheses in empirical science.
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  23. Bayesian Test of Significance for Conditional Independence: The Multinomial Model.Julio Michael Stern, Pablo de Morais Andrade & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2014 - Entropy 16:1376-1395.
    Conditional independence tests have received special attention lately in machine learning and computational intelligence related literature as an important indicator of the relationship among the variables used by their models. In the field of probabilistic graphical models, which includes Bayesian network models, conditional independence tests are especially important for the task of learning the probabilistic graphical model structure from data. In this paper, we propose the full Bayesian significance test for tests of conditional independence for discrete datasets. The full Bayesian (...)
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  24. OBCS: The Ontology of Biological and Clinical Statistics.Jie Zheng, Marcelline R. Harris, Anna Maria Masci, Yu Lin, Alfred Hero, Barry Smith & Yongqun He - 2014 - Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on Biomedical Ontology 1327:65.
    Statistics play a critical role in biological and clinical research. To promote logically consistent representation and classification of statistical entities, we have developed the Ontology of Biological and Clinical Statistics (OBCS). OBCS extends the Ontology of Biomedical Investigations (OBI), an OBO Foundry ontology supported by some 20 communities. Currently, OBCS contains 686 terms, including 381 classes imported from OBI and 147 classes specific to OBCS. The goal of this paper is to present OBCS for community critique and to describe a (...)
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  25. Statistical Analyses.Glenys Bishop - 2013 - In Katrina Hutchison & Fiona Jenkins (eds.), Women in Philosophy: What Needs to Change? Oup Usa. pp. 253.
  26. Refuting Data Aggregation Arguments and How the Instance-Based Learning Model Stands Criticism: A Reply to Hills and Hertwig.Cleotilde Gonzalez & Varun Dutt - 2012 - Psychological Review 119 (4):893-898.
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  27. Towards the Reduction of Data Used for the Classification of Network Flows.Maciej Grzenda - 2012 - In Emilio Corchado, Vaclav Snasel, Ajith Abraham, Michał Woźniak, Manuel Grana & Sung-Bae Cho (eds.), Hybrid Artificial Intelligent Systems. Springer. pp. 68--77.
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  28. Estimation and Model Selection in Dirichlet Regression.Julio Michael Stern - 2012 - AIP Conference Proceedings 1443:206-213.
    We study Compositional Models based on Dirichlet Regression where, given a (vector) covariate x, one considers the response variable, y, to be a positive vector with a conditional Dirichlet distribution, y | X We introduce a new method for estimating the parameters of the Dirichlet Covariate Model given a linear model on X, and also propose a Bayesian model selection approach. We present some numerical results which suggest that our proposals are more stable and robust than traditional approaches.
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  29. Non-Arbitrage In Financial Markets: A Bayesian Approach for Verification.Julio Michael Stern & Fernando Valvano Cerezetti - 2012 - AIP Conference Proceedings 1490:87-96.
    The concept of non-arbitrage plays an essential role in finance theory. Under certain regularity conditions, the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing states that, in non-arbitrage markets, prices of financial instruments are martingale processes. In this theoretical framework, the analysis of the statistical distributions of financial assets can assist in understanding how participants behave in the markets, and may or may not engender arbitrage conditions. Assuming an underlying Variance Gamma statistical model, this study aims to test, using the FBST - Full (...)
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  30. Cointegration: Bayesian Significance Test Communications in Statistics.Julio Michael Stern, Marcio Alves Diniz & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2012 - Communications in Statistics 41 (19):3562-3574.
    To estimate causal relationships, time series econometricians must be aware of spurious correlation, a problem first mentioned by Yule (1926). To deal with this problem, one can work either with differenced series or multivariate models: VAR (VEC or VECM) models. These models usually include at least one cointegration relation. Although the Bayesian literature on VAR/VEC is quite advanced, Bauwens et al. (1999) highlighted that “the topic of selecting the cointegrating rank has not yet given very useful and convincing results”. The (...)
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  31. FBST for Covariance Structures of Generalized Gompertz Models.Julio Michael Stern & Viviane Teles de Lucca Maranhao - 2012 - AIP Conference Proceedings 1490:202-211.
    The Gompertz distribution is commonly used in biology for modeling fatigue and mortality. This paper studies a class of models proposed by Adham and Walker, featuring a Gompertz type distribution where the dependence structure is modeled by a lognormal distribution, and develops a new multivariate formulation that facilitates several numerical and computational aspects. This paper also implements the FBST, the Full Bayesian Significance Test for pertinent sharp (precise) hypotheses on the lognormal covariance structure. The FBST’s e-value, ev(H), gives the epistemic (...)
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  32. Nociones Introductorias de Muestreo Estadístico (Introductory Notions of Statistical Sampling).M. H. Badii, A. Guillen, E. Cerna & J. Valenzuela - 2011 - Daena 6 (1):89-105.
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  33. Statistical Learning Theory: A Tutorial.Sanjeev R. Kulkarni & Gilbert Harman - 2011 - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Computational Statistics 3 (6):543-556.
    In this article, we provide a tutorial overview of some aspects of statistical learning theory, which also goes by other names such as statistical pattern recognition, nonparametric classification and estimation, and supervised learning. We focus on the problem of two-class pattern classification for various reasons. This problem is rich enough to capture many of the interesting aspects that are present in the cases of more than two classes and in the problem of estimation, and many of the results can be (...)
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  34. Unit Roots: Bayesian Significance Test.Julio Michael Stern, Marcio Alves Diniz & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2011 - Communications in Statistics 40 (23):4200-4213.
    The unit root problem plays a central role in empirical applications in the time series econometric literature. However, significance tests developed under the frequentist tradition present various conceptual problems that jeopardize the power of these tests, especially for small samples. Bayesian alternatives, although having interesting interpretations and being precisely defined, experience problems due to the fact that that the hypothesis of interest in this case is sharp or precise. The Bayesian significance test used in this article, for the unit root (...)
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  35. Steps Towards a Unified Basis for Scientific Models and Methods.Inge S. Helland - 2010 - World Scientific.
  36. Finite-Time Destruction of Entanglement and Non-Locality by Environmental Influences.Kevin Ann & Gregg Jaeger - 2009 - Foundations of Physics 39 (7):790-828.
    Entanglement and non-locality are non-classical global characteristics of quantum states important to the foundations of quantum mechanics. Recent investigations have shown that environmental noise, even when it is entirely local in influence, can destroy both of these properties in finite time despite giving rise to full quantum state decoherence only in the infinite time limit. These investigations, which have been carried out in a range of theoretical and experimental situations, are reviewed here.
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  37. Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions.Vincent Hendricks & Alan Hajek (eds.) - 2009 - Birkerød, Denmark: Automatic Press.
    Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits in these respects. Interviews with Nick Bingham, Luc Bovens, Terrence L. Fine, Haim Gaifman, Donald Gillies, James Hawthorne, Carl Hoefer, James M. Joyce, Joseph B. Kadane Isaac Levi, D.H. Mellor, Patrick Suppes, Jan (...)
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  38. FBST for a Generalized Poisson Distribution.Julio Michael Stern, Paulo do Canto Hubert & Marcelo de Souza Lauretto - 2009 - AIP Conference Proceedings 1193:210-217.
    The Generalized Poisson Distribution (GPD) adds an extra parameter to the usual Poisson distribution. This parameter induces a loss of homogeneity in the stochastic processes modeled by the distribution. Thus, the generalized distribution becomes an useful model for counting processes where the occurrence of events is not homogeneous. This model creates the need for an inferential procedure, to test for the value of this extra parameter. The FBST (Full Bayesian Significance Test) is a Bayesian hypotheses test procedure, capable of providing (...)
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  39. A Straightforward Multiallelic Significance Test for the Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium Law.Julio Michael Stern, Marcelo de Souza Lauretto, Fabio Nakano, Silvio Rodrigues Faria & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2009 - Genetics and Molecular Biology 32 (3):619-625.
    Much forensic inference based upon DNA evidence is made assuming Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) for the genetic loci being used. Several statistical tests to detect and measure deviation from HWE have been devised, and their limitations become more obvious when testing for deviation within multiallelic DNA loci. The most popular methods-Chi-square and Likelihood-ratio tests-are based on asymptotic results and cannot guarantee a good performance in the presence of low frequency genotypes. Since the parameter space dimension increases at a quadratic rate on (...)
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  40. Hierarchical Forecasting with Polynomial Nets.Julio Michael Stern, Fabio Nakano, Marcelo de Souza Lauretto & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2009 - Studies in Computational Intelligence 199:305-315.
    This article presents a two level hierarchical forecasting model developed in a consulting project for a Brazilian magazine publishing company. The first level uses a VARMA model and considers econometric variables. The second level takes into account qualitative aspects of each publication issue, and is based on polynomial networks generated by Genetic Programming (GP).
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  41. Factor Structure of the Psychopathic Personality Inventory (PPI): Findings From a Large Incarcerated Sample.Craig S. Neumann, Melanie B. Malterer & Joseph Newman - 2008 - Psychological Assessment 20 (2):169–174.
    Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) of the Psychopathic Personality Inventory (PPI; S. O. Lilienfeld, 1990; S. O. Lilienfeld & B. P. Andrews, 1996) with a community sample has suggested that the PPI subscales may comprise 2 higher order factors (S. D. Benning, C. J. Patrick, B. M. Hicks, D. M. Blonigen, & R. F. Krueger, 2003). However, substantive and structural evidence raises concerns about the viability of this 2-factor model, particularly in offender populations. The authors attempted to replicate the S. D. (...)
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  42. The Full Bayesian Significance Test for Mixture Models: Results in Gene Expression Clustering.Julio Michael Stern, Marcelo de Souza Lauretto & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2008 - Genetics and Molecular Research 7 (3):883-897.
    Gene clustering is a useful exploratory technique to group together genes with similar expression levels under distinct cell cycle phases or distinct conditions. It helps the biologist to identify potentially meaningful relationships between genes. In this study, we propose a clustering method based on multivariate normal mixture models, where the number of clusters is predicted via sequential hypothesis tests: at each step, the method considers a mixture model of m components (m = 2 in the first step) and tests if (...)
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  43. Special Characterizations of Standard Discrete Models.Julio Michael Stern & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2008 - RevStat – Statistical Journal 6:199-230.
    This article presents important properties of standard discrete distributions and its conjugate densities. The Bernoulli and Poisson processes are described as generators of such discrete models. A characterization of distributions by mixtures is also introduced. This article adopts a novel singular notation and representation. Singular representations are unusual in statistical texts. Nevertheless, the singular notation makes it simpler to extend and generalize theoretical results and greatly facilitates numerical and computational implementation.
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  44. Assessment of Strategies for Evaluating Extreme Risks.James Franklin & Scott Sisson - 2007 - Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis Reports.
    The report begins by outlining several case studies with varying levels of data, examining the role for extreme event risk analysis. The case studies include BA’s analysis of fire blight and New Zealand apples, bank operational risk and several technical failures. The report then surveys recent developments in methods relevant to evaluating extreme risks and evaluates their properties. These include methods for fraud detection in banks, formal extreme value theory, Bayesian approaches, qualitative reasoning, and adversary and advocacy models. The document (...)
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  45. Statistical Magic and/or Statistical Serendipity: An Age of Progress in the Analysis of Categorical Data.Leo A. Goodman - 2007 - Annual Review of Sociology 33:1-19.
    This essay describes in simple terms some of the major concepts of categorical data analysis (CDA) that have been and will continue to be useful in the analysis of sociological data, examples of which include data in the area of social stratification and mobility, and in many other areas that make use of survey data and/or panel studies data, and in empirical studies of latent types, latent variables, and latent structures. The exposition does not make use of any mathematical formulas, (...)
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  46. A New Media Optimizer Based on the Mean-Variance Model.Julio Michael Stern - 2007 - Pesquisa Operacional, 27 (3):427-456.
    In the financial markets, there is a well established portfolio optimization model called generalized mean-variance model (or generalized Markowitz model). This model considers that a typical investor, while expecting returns to be high, also expects returns to be as certain as possible. In this paper we introduce a new media optimization system based on the mean-variance model, a novel approach in media planning. After presenting the model in its full generality, we discuss possible advantages of the mean-variance paradigm, such as (...)
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  47. The Problem of Separate Hypotheses Via Mixtures Models.Julio Michael Stern, Marcelo de Souza Lauretto, Silvio Rodrigues Faria & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2007 - AIP Conference Proceedings 954:268-275.
    This article describes the Full Bayesian Significance Test for the problem of separate hypotheses. Numerical experiments are performed for the Gompertz vs. Weibull life span test.
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  48. Statistical Concepts in Philosophy of Science.Patrick Suppes - 2007 - Synthese 154 (3):485--496.
    This article focuses on the role of statistical concepts in both experiment and theory in various scientific disciplines, especially physics, including astronomy, and psychology. In Sect. 1 the concept of uncertainty in astronomy is analyzed from Ptolemy to Laplace and Gauss. In Sect. 2 theoretical uses of probability and statistics in science are surveyed. Attention is focused on the historically important example of radioactive decay. In Sect. 3 the use of statistics in biology and the social sciences is examined, with (...)
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  49. Understanding and Calculating the Odds: Probability Theory Basics and Calculus Guide for Beginners, with Applications in Games of Chance and Everyday Life.Catalin Barboianu - 2006 - Craiova, Romania: Infarom.
    This book presents not only the mathematical concept of probability, but also its philosophical aspects, the relativity of probability and its applications and even the psychology of probability. All explanations are made in a comprehensible manner and are supported with suggestive examples from nature and daily life, and even with challenging math paradoxes.
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  50. Severe Testing as a Basic Concept in a Neyman–Pearson Philosophy of Induction.Deborah G. Mayo & Aris Spanos - 2006 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 57 (2):323-357.
    Despite the widespread use of key concepts of the Neyman–Pearson (N–P) statistical paradigm—type I and II errors, significance levels, power, confidence levels—they have been the subject of philosophical controversy and debate for over 60 years. Both current and long-standing problems of N–P tests stem from unclarity and confusion, even among N–P adherents, as to how a test's (pre-data) error probabilities are to be used for (post-data) inductive inference as opposed to inductive behavior. We argue that the relevance of error probabilities (...)
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