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Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Cambridge University Press (1982)

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  1. Medical Error and Moral Luck.Dieneke Hubbeling - 2016 - HEC Forum 28 (3):229-243.
    This paper addresses the concept of moral luck. Moral luck is discussed in the context of medical error, especially an error of omission that occurs frequently, but only rarely has adverse consequences. As an example, a failure to compare the label on a syringe with the drug chart results in the wrong medication being administered and the patient dies. However, this error may have previously occurred many times with no tragic consequences. Discussions on moral luck can highlight conflicting intuitions. Should (...)
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  • Stats.con.Jeremy Howick - 2011 - Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 17 (5):1011-1012.
  • What Does the Frame Problem Tell us About Moral Normativity?Terry Horgan & Mark Timmons - 2009 - Ethical Theory and Moral Practice 12 (1):25-51.
    Within cognitive science, mental processing is often construed as computation over mental representations—i.e., as the manipulation and transformation of mental representations in accordance with rules of the kind expressible in the form of a computer program. This foundational approach has encountered a long-standing, persistently recalcitrant, problem often called the frame problem; it is sometimes called the relevance problem. In this paper we describe the frame problem and certain of its apparent morals concerning human cognition, and we argue that these morals (...)
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  • Positive illusion and the normativity of substantive and structural rationality.Tsung-Hsing Ho - 2022 - Philosophical Explorations 26 (3).
    To explain why we should be structurally rational – or mentally coherent – is notoriously difficult. Some philosophers argue that the normativity of structural rationality can be explained in terms of substantive rationality, which is a matter of correct response to reason. I argue that the psychological phenomena – positive illusions – are counterexamples to the substantivist approach. Substantivists dismiss the relevance of positive illusions because they accept evidentialism that reason for belief must be evidence. I argue that their evidentialist (...)
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  • Special Number or a Mere Numerical Array? Effect of Repdigits on Judgments and Choices.Hidehito Honda, Sota Matsunaga & Kazuhiro Ueda - 2020 - Frontiers in Psychology 11.
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  • Probing the “Achilles' heel” of rational analysis.Keith J. Holyoak - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (3):498-499.
  • On doing research on consciousness without being aware of it.Daniel Holender - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):612-614.
  • Selecting for the con in consciousness.Deborah Hodgkin & Alasdair I. Houston - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):668-669.
  • “Consciousness” is the name of a nonentity.Deborah Hodgkin & Alasdair I. Houston - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):611-612.
  • Matter, levels, and consciousness.Jerry R. Hobbs - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):610-611.
  • The lovely and the probable. [REVIEW]Christopher Hitchcock - 2007 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 74 (2):433–440.
  • Cause and Norm.Christopher Hitchcock & Joshua Knobe - 2009 - Journal of Philosophy 106 (11):587-612.
    Much of the philosophical literature on causation has focused on the concept of actual causation, sometimes called token causation. In particular, it is this notion of actual causation that many philosophical theories of causation have attempted to capture.2 In this paper, we address the question: what purpose does this concept serve? As we shall see in the next section, one does not need this concept for purposes of prediction or rational deliberation. What then could the purpose be? We will argue (...)
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  • A fallacious fallacy?Jaakko Hintikka - 2004 - Synthese 140 (1-2):25 - 35.
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  • Searle's vision of psychology.James Higginbotham - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):608-610.
  • Penrose's Platonism.James Higginbotham - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):667-668.
  • Understanding the rationality principle in economics as a functional a priori principle.Catherine Https://Orcidorg Herfeld - 2020 - Synthese 198 (Suppl 14):3329-3358.
    Since the early days of economics, the rationality principle has been a core element of economic theorizing. It is part of almost any theoretical framework that economists use to generate knowledge. Despite its central role, the principle’s epistemic status and function continue to be debated between empiricists and rationalists, and a clear winner is yet to emerge. One point of contention is that we cannot explain the principle’s special status in light of clear evidence against its empirical validity and the (...)
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  • The Foundations of Behavior: The Beliefs, Preferences, and Constraints Model.Herbert Gintis - 2006 - Biological Theory 1 (2):123-127.
  • Finding Foundations for Bounded and Adaptive Rationality.Ralph Hertwig & Arthur Paul Pedersen - 2016 - Minds and Machines 26 (1-2):1-8.
  • Ethnolinguistic identity and social cognition.David Herman - 2007 - Sign Systems Studies 35 (1-2):217-228.
    Analysts studying the nexus between language and ethnic identity have characterized ethnolinguistic ideologies as the deep structure of overt language practices. By contrast, this exploratory analysis argues for the advantages of shifting from a multi-level to a single-level explanatory model, consisting of interpretive frames and data (= aspects of sociocommunicative behavior) interpreted by way of those frames. The single-level model affords, arguably, a more unified treatment of people’s everyday inferences about ethnolinguistic identity, on the one hand, and research paradigms for (...)
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  • Polanyi's tacit knowing and the relevance of epistemology to clinical medicine.Stephen G. Henry - 2010 - Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 16 (2):292-297.
    Most clinicians take for granted a simple, reductionist understanding of medical knowledge that is at odds with how they actually practice medicine; routine medical decisions incorporate more complicated kinds of information than most standard accounts of medical reasoning suggest. A better understanding of the structure and function of knowledge in medicine can lead to practical improvements in clinical medicine. This understanding requires some familiarity with epistemology, the study of knowledge and its structure, in medicine. Michael Polanyi's theory of tacit knowing (...)
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  • “Economic man” in cross-cultural perspective: Behavioral experiments in 15 small-scale societies.Joseph Henrich, Robert Boyd, Samuel Bowles, Colin Camerer, Ernst Fehr, Herbert Gintis, Richard McElreath, Michael Alvard, Abigail Barr, Jean Ensminger, Natalie Smith Henrich, Kim Hill, Francisco Gil-White, Michael Gurven, Frank W. Marlowe & John Q. Patton - 2005 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 28 (6):795-815.
    Researchers from across the social sciences have found consistent deviations from the predictions of the canonical model of self-interest in hundreds of experiments from around the world. This research, however, cannot determine whether the uniformity results from universal patterns of human behavior or from the limited cultural variation available among the university students used in virtually all prior experimental work. To address this, we undertook a cross-cultural study of behavior in ultimatum, public goods, and dictator games in a range of (...)
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  • Explanation and rationality naturalized.David Henderson - 2010 - Philosophy of the Social Sciences 40 (1):30-58.
    Familiar accounts have it that one explains thoughts or actions by showing them to be rational. It is common to find that the standards of rationality presupposed in these accounts are drawn from what would be thought to be aprioristic sources. I advance an argument to show this must be mistaken. But, recent work in epistemology and on rationality takes a less aprioristic approach to such standards. Does the new (psychological or cognitive scientific) realism in accounts of rationality itself significantly (...)
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  • Another vote for rationality.Mary Henle - 1981 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 4 (3):339-339.
  • Rationalizing two-tiered choice functions through conditional choice.Jeffrey Helzner - 2013 - Synthese 190 (6):929-951.
    Set-valued choice functions provide a framework that is general enough to encompass a wide variety of theories that are significant to the study of rationality but, at the same time, offer enough structure to articulate consistency conditions that can be used to characterize some of the theories within this encompassed variety. Nonetheless, two-tiered choice functions, such as those advocated by Isaac Levi, are not easily characterized within the framework of set-valued choice functions. The present work proposes conditional choice functions as (...)
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  • Optimality and constraint.David A. Helweg & Herbert L. Roitblat - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):222-223.
  • Epistemology and economics.Jeffrey Helzner - 2013 - Synthese 190 (5):781-786.
  • Truth or consequences.John Heil - 1994 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 17 (1):19-20.
  • Rationality and psychological explanation.John Heil - 1985 - Inquiry: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Philosophy 28 (1-4):359 – 371.
    Certain philosophical arguments apparently show that the having of beliefs is tied conceptually to rationality. Such a view, however, seems at odds both with the possibility of irrational belief and with recent empirical discoveries in the psychology of reasoning. The aim of this paper is to move toward a reconciliation of these apparently conflicting perspectives by distinguishing between internalist and externalist conceptions of rationality. It is argued that elements of each are required for a satisfactory theory, one that allows for (...)
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  • Manipulating number generation: Loud+ long= large?Alexander Heinemann, Roland Pfister & Markus Janczyk - 2013 - Consciousness and Cognition 22 (4):1332-1339.
  • How Children and Adults Represent God's Mind.Larisa Heiphetz, Jonathan D. Lane, Adam Waytz & Liane L. Young - 2016 - Cognitive Science 40 (1):121-144.
    For centuries, humans have contemplated the minds of gods. Research on religious cognition is spread across sub-disciplines, making it difficult to gain a complete understanding of how people reason about gods' minds. We integrate approaches from cognitive, developmental, and social psychology and neuroscience to illuminate the origins of religious cognition. First, we show that although adults explicitly discriminate supernatural minds from human minds, their implicit responses reveal far less discrimination. Next, we demonstrate that children's religious cognition often matches adults' implicit (...)
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  • Revelation and Rhetoric: A Critical Model of Forensic Discourse. [REVIEW]Chris Heffer - 2013 - International Journal for the Semiotics of Law - Revue Internationale de Sémiotique Juridique 26 (2):459-485.
    Over the past thirty years or so, theoretical work in such fields as legal semiotics and law and literature has argued that the legal process is profoundly rhetorical. At the same time, a number of communication-based disciplines such as semiotics, sociolinguistics and linguistic anthropology have provided, particularly in interdisciplinary combination with law, a wealth of empirical evidence on, and insight into, the micro-contexts of language and communication in the legal process. However, while these invaluable nitty-gritty analyses provide empirical support for (...)
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  • Patterns of Response Times and Response Choices to Science Questions: The Influence of Relative Processing Time.Andrew F. Heckler & Thomas M. Scaife - 2015 - Cognitive Science 39 (3):496-537.
    We report on five experiments investigating response choices and response times to simple science questions that evoke student “misconceptions,” and we construct a simple model to explain the patterns of response choices. Physics students were asked to compare a physical quantity represented by the slope, such as speed, on simple physics graphs. We found that response times of incorrect answers, resulting from comparing heights, were faster than response times of correct answers comparing slopes. This result alone might be explained by (...)
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  • The role of causal models in multiple judgments under uncertainty.Brett K. Hayes, Guy E. Hawkins, Ben R. Newell, Martina Pasqualino & Bob Rehder - 2014 - Cognition 133 (3):611-620.
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  • The Moral Problem of Risk Impositions: A Survey of the Literature.Madeleine Hayenhjelm & Jonathan Wolff - 2012 - European Journal of Philosophy 20 (S1):E1-E142.
    This paper surveys the current philosophical discussion of the ethics of risk imposition, placing it in the context of relevant work in psychology, economics and social theory. The central philosophical problem starts from the observation that it is not practically possible to assign people individual rights not to be exposed to risk, as virtually all activity imposes some risk on others. This is the ‘problem of paralysis’. However, the obvious alternative theory that exposure to risk is justified when its total (...)
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  • Effects of the Use of the Availability Heuristic on Ethical Decision-Making in Organizations.Sefa Hayibor & David M. Wasieleski - 2009 - Journal of Business Ethics 84 (S1):151 - 165.
    Recent corporate scandals across various industries have led to an increased focus on research in business ethics, particularly on understanding ethical decision-making. This increased interest is due largely to managers' desire to reduce the incidence of unwanted behaviors in the workplace. This article examines one major moderator of the ethical decision-making process - moral intensity. In particular, we explore the potential influence of a particular cognitive heuristic - the availability heuristic -on perceptions of moral intensity. It is our contention that (...)
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  • Rational analysis and the Lens model.Reid Hastie & Kenneth R. Hammond - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (3):498-498.
  • The Problem of Induction.Gilbert Harman & Sanjeev R. Kulkarni - 2006 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 72 (3):559-575.
    The problem of induction is sometimes motivated via a comparison between rules of induction and rules of deduction. Valid deductive rules are necessarily truth preserving, while inductive rules are not.
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  • The Appeal to Expert Opinion: Quantitative Support for a Bayesian Network Approach.Adam J. L. Harris, Ulrike Hahn, Jens K. Madsen & Anne S. Hsu - 2016 - Cognitive Science 40 (6):1496-1533.
    The appeal to expert opinion is an argument form that uses the verdict of an expert to support a position or hypothesis. A previous scheme-based treatment of the argument form is formalized within a Bayesian network that is able to capture the critical aspects of the argument form, including the central considerations of the expert's expertise and trustworthiness. We propose this as an appropriate normative framework for the argument form, enabling the development and testing of quantitative predictions as to how (...)
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  • Referee agreement in context.Lowell L. Hargens - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (1):150-151.
  • Logic and probability theory versus canons of rationality.Gilbert Harman - 1983 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 6 (2):251-251.
  • Kyburg on practical certainty.Willam L. Harper - 1983 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 6 (2):251-252.
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  • Intentionality: Some distinctions.Gilbert Harman - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):607-608.
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  • Intuitive Dilation?Casey Hart & Michael G. Titelbaum - 2015 - Thought: A Journal of Philosophy 4 (4):252-262.
    Roger White objects to interval-valued credence theories because they produce a counterintuitive “dilation” effect in a story he calls the Coin Game. We respond that results in the Coin Game were bound to be counterintuitive anyway, because the story involves an agent who learns a biconditional. Biconditional updates produce surprising results whether the credences involved are ranged or precise, so White's story is no counterexample to ranged credence theories.
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  • Decision-making: A neuroeconomic perspective.Benoit Hardy-Vallée - 2007 - Philosophy Compass 2 (6):939–953.
    This article introduces and discusses from a philosophical point of view the nascent field of neuroeconomics, which is the study of neural mechanisms involved in decision-making and their economic significance. Following a survey of the ways in which decision-making is usually construed in philosophy, economics and psychology, I review many important findings in neuroeconomics to show that they suggest a revised picture of decision-making and ourselves as choosing agents. Finally, I outline a neuroeconomic account of irrationality.
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  • Coding Ethical Decision-Making in Research.David J. Hartmann, Thomas Van Valey & Wayne Fuqua - 2017 - Science and Engineering Ethics 23 (1):121-146.
    This paper presents methods and challenges attendant on the use of protocol analysis to develop a model of heuristic processing applied to research ethics. Participants are exposed to ethically complex scenarios and asked to verbalize their thoughts as they formulate a requested decision. The model identifies functional parts of the decision-making task: interpretation, retrieval, judgment and editing and seeks to reliably code participant verbalizations to those tasks as well as to a set of cognitive tools generally useful in such work. (...)
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  • Basic Processes in Dynamic Decision Making: How Experimental Findings About Risk, Uncertainty, and Emotion Can Contribute to Police Decision Making.Jason L. Harman, Don Zhang & Steven G. Greening - 2019 - Frontiers in Psychology 10.
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  • Accounting for one's behavior—what really determines its effectiveness? Its type or its content?Shlomo Hareli - 2005 - Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour 35 (4):359–372.
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  • Experimental evidence for paranormal phenomena.C. E. M. Hansel - 1987 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 10 (4):590.
  • Could gambling save science? Encouraging an honest consensus.Robin Hanson - 1995 - Social Epistemology 9 (1):3-33.
    The pace of scientific progress may be hindered by the tendency of our academic institutions to reward being popular rather than being right. A market-based alternative, where scientists can more formally 'stake their reputation', is presented here. It offers clear incentives to be careful and honest while contributing to a visible, self-consistent consensus on controversial scientific questions. In addition, it allows patrons to choose questions to be researched without choosing people or methods. The bulk of this paper is spent in (...)
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  • Debating point.Katherine Hall - 1994 - Health Care Analysis 2 (4):336-338.