Results for 'Hindsight bias'

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  1. Hindsight bias is not a bias.Brian Hedden - 2019 - Analysis 79 (1):43-52.
    Humans typically display hindsight bias. They are more confident that the evidence available beforehand made some outcome probable when they know the outcome occurred than when they don't. There is broad consensus that hindsight bias is irrational, but this consensus is wrong. Hindsight bias is generally rationally permissible and sometimes rationally required. The fact that a given outcome occurred provides both evidence about what the total evidence available ex ante was, and also evidence about (...)
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  2.  53
    Does hindsight bias change perceptions of business ethics?Frank Sligo & Nicole Stirton - 1998 - Journal of Business Ethics 17 (2):111-124.
    Ethical decision theory may not be sufficiently well developed to furnish reliable guidelines to people involved in complex decision making that involves conflict between ethical considerations and business imperatives such as making a profit. In conditions of ethical uncertainty hindsight bias may occur, and this study reports on an exploration of hindsight bias effects among participants in continuing education in business programmes. Perceptions of business ethics were found to differ among groups within the sample depending on (...)
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  3.  9
    Hindsight bias in a very sparse environment.Judith E. Hennessey & Stephen E. Edgell - 1991 - Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society 29 (5):433-436.
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    Role of Hindsight Bias, Ethics, and Self-Other Judgments in Students’ Evaluation of an Animal Experiment.Harry L. Hom & Donn L. Kaiser - 2016 - Ethics and Behavior 26 (1):1-13.
    Does hindsight knowledge make research seem more ethical and predictable? In line with the notion of hindsight bias, students in 3 experiments knowing the outcome of an animal experiment judged the results as more foreseeable and ethical relative to students who did not know the outcome. Via self to other comparisons, students evaluate themselves more favorably compared to a peer but exhibited hindsight bias in doing so. Uniquely, the findings reveal the possibility that students deem (...)
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  5. Outcome Effects, Moral Luck and the Hindsight Bias.Markus Kneer & Iza Skoczeń - 2023 - Cognition 232.
    In a series of ten preregistered experiments (N=2043), we investigate the effect of outcome valence on judgments of probability, negligence, and culpability – a phenomenon sometimes labelled moral (and legal) luck. We found that harmful outcomes, when contrasted with neutral outcomes, lead to increased perceived probability of harm ex post, and consequently to increased attribution of negligence and culpability. Rather than simply postulating a hindsight bias (as is common), we employ a variety of empirical means to demonstrate that (...)
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  6.  28
    The reiteration effect in hindsight bias.Ralph Hertwig, Gerd Gigerenzer & Ulrich Hoffrage - 1997 - Psychological Review 104 (1):194-202.
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  7.  31
    Assessing the Evidence for Outcome Bias and Hindsight Bias.Mikkel Gerken - 2024 - Review of Philosophy and Psychology 15 (1):237-252.
    Outcome bias and hindsight bias are important in philosophical debates and have wide-ranging implications outside of philosophy. Recently, Hedden has articulated a novel line of argumnt that the empirical evidence for what he labels hindsight bias is largely misguided and that empirical researchers who postulate such a bias are engaged in a fallacy fallacy. In this paper, I articulate Hedden’s core insights in terms of two principles and argue that in the relevant empirical research, (...)
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  8.  37
    Outcome effects, moral luck and the hindsight bias.Markus Https://Orcidorg Kneer & Izabela Skoczen - 2022 - Cognition 232 (C):105258.
    In a series of ten preregistered experiments (N=2043), we investigate the effect of outcome valence on judgments of probability, negligence, and culpability – a phenomenon sometimes labelled moral (and legal) luck. We found that harmful outcomes, when contrasted with neutral outcomes, lead to increased perceived probability of harm ex post, and consequently to increased attribution of negligence and culpability. Rather than simply postulating a hindsight bias (as is common), we employ a variety of empirical means to demonstrate that (...)
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  9.  21
    Effects of dysphoria and induced negative mood on the processes underlying hindsight bias.Julia Groß & Ute J. Bayen - 2017 - Cognition and Emotion 31 (8):1715-1724.
    ABSTRACTHindsight bias is the tendency to overestimate one’s prior knowledge of facts or events once the actual facts or events are known. Several theoretical frameworks suggest that affective states might influence hindsight bias. Nondysphoric participants in negative or neutral mood, and dysphoric participants generated and recalled answers to difficult knowledge questions. All groups showed hindsight bias, that is, their recalled estimates were closer to the correct answer when this answer was shown at recall. Multinomial modelling (...)
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  10. Evidence and Bias.Nick Hughes - 2019 - In Maria Lasonen-Aarnio & Clayton Littlejohn (eds.), The Routledge Handbook of the Philosophy of Evidence. Routledge.
    I argue that evidentialism should be rejected because it cannot be reconciled with empirical work on bias in cognitive and social psychology.
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  11. Critical Thinking and Cognitive Bias.Jeffrey Maynes - 2015 - Informal Logic 35 (2):183-203.
    Teaching critical thinking skill is a central pedagogical aim in many courses. These skills, it is hoped, will be both portable and durable. Yet, both of these virtues are challenged by pervasive and potent cognitive biases, such as motivated reasoning, false consensus bias and hindsight bias. In this paper, I argue that a focus on the development of metacognitive skill shows promise as a means to inculcate debiasing habits in students. Such habits will help students become more (...)
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  12. A gond embere: létváz.László Fábián - 2002 - Veszprém: Művészetek Háza.
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  13.  4
    A fájdalom embere: találgatások a halálról.László Fábián - 1997 - Budapest: Kráter Műhely Egyesület.
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  14.  28
    A note on deduction theorem for gödel's propositional calculus G.Ewa Żarnecka-Biaŀy - 1968 - Studia Logica 23 (1):35 - 41.
  15.  12
    A note on deduction theorem for Gödel's propositional calculus G4.Ewa Żarnecka-Biaŀy - 1968 - Studia Logica 23 (1):35-40.
  16. Apáczai Csere János: Kismonográfia.Ernő Fábián - 1975 - Kolozsvár-Napoca: Dacia.
     
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  17. Semantica e lessicologia storiche: atti del XXXII Congresso internazionale di studi, Budapest 29-31 ottobre 1998.Zsuzsanna Fábián & Giampaolo Salvi (eds.) - 2001 - Roma: Bulzoni.
     
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  18. The gender of illiberalism : new transnational alliances against open societies in Central and Eastern Europe.Katalin Fábián - 2023 - In Christof Royer & Liviu Matei (eds.), Open society unresolved: the contemporary relevance of a contested idea. New York: Central European University Press.
  19.  6
    Művészet és tér: Hamvas Béla-konferencia balatonfüred, 2014. március 21-22.Krisztián Tóbiás, László Cserép & István Nádler (eds.) - 2014 - Balatonfüred: Balatonfüred Városért Közalapítvány.
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  20.  9
    The limits of certainty in the oral history of philosophy: the problem of memory.Vsevolod Khoma - 2019 - Filosofska Dumka (Philosophical Thought) 4:67-80.
    The article argues that the oral history of philosophy (OHP) will not produce reliable results unless it develops effective methods of counteracting cognitive biases related to human memory. So far, this problem has not even been raised. I highlighted the main cognitive memory biases that affect the validity of the UIF: choice-supportive bias, hindsight bias, fundamental attribution error. Describing the nature of their detrimental effects on the interview, I suggested ways to counteract it: (1) multi-level verification of (...)
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  21. Australasian Journal of Philosophy Contents of Volume 91.Present Desire Satisfaction, Past Well-Being, Volatile Reasons, Epistemic Focal Bias, Some Evidence is False, Counting Stages, Vague Entailment, What Russell Couldn'T. Describe, Liberal Thinking & Intentional Action First - 2013 - Australasian Journal of Philosophy 91 (4).
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  22.  16
    Opting out: confidentiality and availability of an ‘alibi’ for potential living kidney donors in the USA: Table 1.Carrie Thiessen, Yunsoo A. Kim, Richard Formica, Margaret Bia & Sanjay Kulkarni - 2015 - Journal of Medical Ethics 41 (7):506-510.
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  23.  20
    Sanctification, Hardening of the Heart, and Frankfurt's Concept of.On Some Worldly Worries, Care Justice & Gender Bias - 1988 - Journal of Philosophy 85 (8):436-437.
  24.  9
    ‘I knew all along’: making sense of post-self-deception judgments.Martina Orlandi - 2024 - Synthese 203 (136):1-15.
    Individuals deceive themselves about a wide variety of subjects. In fortunate circumstances, where those who manage to leave self-deception embrace reality, an interesting phenomenon occurs: the formerly self-deceived often confess to having ‘known [the truth] all along’. These post-self-deception judgments are not conceptually innocuous; if genuine, they call into question the core feature of prominent theories of self-deception, namely that self-deceived individuals do not believe the unwelcome truth. In this paper I argue that post-self-deception judgments do not track a belief, (...)
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  25. Reasonableness on the Clapham Omnibus: Exploring the outcome-sensitive folk concept of reasonable.Markus Kneer - 2022 - In P. Bystranowski, Bartosz Janik & M. Prochnicki (eds.), Judicial Decision-Making: Integrating Empirical and Theoretical Perspectives. Springer Nature. pp. 25-48.
    This paper presents a series of studies (total N=579) which demonstrate that folk judgments concerning the reasonableness of decisions and actions depend strongly on whether they engender positive or negative consequences. A particular decision is deemed more reasonable in retrospect when it produces beneficial consequences than when it produces harmful consequences, even if the situation in which the decision was taken and the epistemic circumstances of the agent are held fixed across conditions. This finding is worrisome for the law, where (...)
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  26. No luck for moral luck.Markus Kneer & Edouard Machery - 2019 - Cognition 182 (C):331-348.
    Moral philosophers and psychologists often assume that people judge morally lucky and morally unlucky agents differently, an assumption that stands at the heart of the Puzzle of Moral Luck. We examine whether the asymmetry is found for reflective intuitions regarding wrongness, blame, permissibility, and punishment judg- ments, whether people’s concrete, case-based judgments align with their explicit, abstract principles regarding moral luck, and what psychological mechanisms might drive the effect. Our experiments produce three findings: First, in within-subjects experiments favorable to reflective (...)
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  27.  17
    Flexible yet fair: blinding analyses in experimental psychology.Gilles Dutilh, Alexandra Sarafoglou & Eric-Jan Wagenmakers - 2019 - Synthese 198 (S23):5745-5772.
    The replicability of findings in experimental psychology can be improved by distinguishing sharply between hypothesis-generating research and hypothesis-testing research. This distinction can be achieved by preregistration, a method that has recently attracted widespread attention. Although preregistration is fair in the sense that it inoculates researchers against hindsight bias and confirmation bias, preregistration does not allow researchers to analyze the data flexibly without the analysis being demoted to exploratory. To alleviate this concern we discuss how researchers may conduct (...)
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  28.  20
    Learning From Surprise: Harnessing a Metacognitive Surprise Signal to Build and Adapt Belief Networks.Edward Munnich & Michael A. Ranney - 2019 - Topics in Cognitive Science 11 (1):164-177.
    This paper considers how surprise (or its lack) can be cast as a metacognitive signal with an adaptive function in learning new knowledge and revising belief networks. It reviews the phenomena that may hinder this signal (e.g., hindsight bias) and argues for its extrinsic exploitation in instructional and educational contexts by educators, journalists and parents, who might train learners to internalize the use of surprise to drive explanation‐based learning.
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  29. Mental Simulation: Looking Back in Order to Look Ahead.Keith Markman & Elizabeth Dyczewski - 2013 - In Donal Carlston (ed.), The Oxford Handbook of Social Cognition. Oxford University Press. pp. 402-416.
    Mental simulation refers to the imagination of alternative, counterfactual realities. This chapter provides an overview of research on simulations of the past— retrospective simulation—and simulations of the future— prospective simulation. Two major themes run throughout. The first is that both retrospective and prospective thinking are inextricably linked, relying on a mixture of episodic and semantic memories that share common neural substrates. The second is that retrospective and prospective simulation present trade-offs for the individual. On the one hand, they are functional, (...)
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  30.  31
    Coping with imperfection.Aaron Bronfman - 2016 - Dissertation, University of Michigan
    This dissertation develops the theory of imperfect rationality in the practical and theoretical domains. I characterize imperfect rationality in terms of the quality of reasoning on which an agent's actions and beliefs are based, which I call their rational worth. Perfectly rational actions and beliefs are based on the best reasoning available to the agent: they are based on all the agent's evidence, on an appropriate weighting of all the relevant values, and on the right inductive and deductive principles. Imperfectly (...)
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  31.  19
    Tetlock and counterfactuals: Saving methodological ambition from empirical findings.Ian S. Lustick - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):427-447.
    In five works spanning a decade, Philip E. Tetlock's interest in counterfactuals has changed. He began with an optimistic desire to make social science more rigorous by identifying best practices in the absence of non-imagined controls for experimentation. Soon, however, he adopted a more pessimistic analysis of the cognitive and psychological barriers facing experts. This shift was brought on by an awareness that experts are not rational Bayesians who continually update their theories to keep up with new information; but instead (...)
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  32.  15
    Against Evidential Pluralism in Pharmaceutical Regulation.Doohyun Sung & Bennett Holman - forthcoming - Philosophy of Science:1-16.
    We examine arguments regarding the use of mechanistic evidence in assessing treatment efficacy and find that advocates and critics of EBM+ have largely been talking past each other due to a difference in focus. We explore aducanumab for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease as a case which may speak to the role of EBM+ in pharmaceutical regulation. The case suggests the debate may be more fruitful if philosophers confine debates to particular domains of medicine and weigh in prospectively instead of (...)
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  33.  18
    Against Evidentiary Pluralism in Pharmaceutical Regulation.Richard Sung & Bennett Holman - unknown
    We examine arguments for and against the use of mechanistic evidence in assessing treatment efficacy and find that advocates of EBM+ and their critics have largely been talking past each other due to difference in focus. We explore aducanumab for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease as a case which may speak to the role of EBM+ in pharmaceutical regulation. The case suggests the debate may be more fruitful if philosophers confine debates to particular domains of medical science and weigh in (...)
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  34.  12
    Tetlock and Counterfactuals: Saving Methodological Ambition From Empirical Findings.Ian S. Lustick - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):427-447.
    In five works spanning a decade, Philip E. Tetlock's interest in counterfactuals has changed. He began with an optimistic desire to make social science more rigorous by identifying best practices in the absence of non-imagined controls for experimentation. Soon, however, he adopted a more pessimistic analysis of the cognitive and psychological barriers facing experts. This shift was brought on by an awareness that experts are not rational Bayesians who continually update their theories to keep up with new information; but instead (...)
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  35. Explanation and the hard problem.Wayne Wright - 2007 - Philosophical Studies 132 (2):301-330.
    This paper argues that the form of explanation at issue in the hard problem of consciousness is scientifically irrelevant, despite appearances to the contrary. In particular, it is argued that the 'sense of understanding' that plays a critical role in the form of explanation implicated in the hard problem provides neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition on satisfactory scientific explanation. Considerations of the actual tools and methods available to scientists are used to make the case against it being a (...)
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  36.  24
    Shusterman’s Epicurean Aesthetics.Joseph Grünfeld - 2002 - Philosophy in the Contemporary World 9 (2):81-86.
    For Shusterman, all experience is a form of understanding, but this makes it difficult for him to explain how we can be mistaken about our experience. His preference for rap remains idiosyncratic, as is his notion of the art of living. In spite of his postmodernist stance, he continues to generalize about what he takes to be the body and about the nature of art. But what “works” in art depends on a variety of subjective factors we come to know (...)
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  37. Bias and Perception.Susanna Siegel - 2020 - In Erin Beeghly & Alex Madva (eds.), An Introduction to Implicit Bias: Knowledge, Justice, and the Social Mind. New York, NY, USA: Routledge. pp. 99-115.
  38. Future Bias and Regret.Sayid Bnefsi - 2023 - In David Jakobsen, Peter Øhrstrøm & Per Hasle (eds.), Logic and Philosophy of Time: The History and Philosophy of Tense-Logic. Aalborg: Aalborg University Press. pp. 1-13.
    The rationality of future bias figures crucially in various metaphysical and ethical arguments (Prior 1959; Parfit 1984; Fischer 2019). Recently, however, philosophers have raised several arguments to the effect that future bias is irrational (Dougherty 2011; Suhler and Callender 2012; Greene and Sullivan 2015). Particularly, Greene and Sullivan (2015) claim that future bias is irrational because future bias leads to two kinds of irrational planning behaviors in agents who also seek to avoid regret. In this paper, (...)
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  39. Implicit bias, ideological bias, and epistemic risks in philosophy.Uwe Peters - 2018 - Mind and Language 34 (3):393-419.
    It has been argued that implicit biases are operative in philosophy and lead to significant epistemic costs in the field. Philosophers working on this issue have focussed mainly on implicit gender and race biases. They have overlooked ideological bias, which targets political orientations. Psychologists have found ideological bias in their field and have argued that it has negative epistemic effects on scientific research. I relate this debate to the field of philosophy and argue that if, as some studies (...)
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  40.  76
    Bias in Human Reasoning: Causes and Consequences.Jonathan St B. T. Evans (ed.) - 1990 - Psychology Press.
    This book represents the first major attempt by any author to provide an integrated account of the evidence for bias in human reasoning across a wide range of disparate psychological literatures. The topics discussed involve both deductive and inductive reasoning as well as statistical judgement and inference. In addition, the author proposes a general theoretical approach to the explanations of bias and considers the practical implications for real world decision making. The theoretical stance of the book is based (...)
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  41.  1
    Confirmation Bias in Argumentation Processes.Anatolii Konverskyi & Nataliia Kolotilova - forthcoming - Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv Philosophy.
    B a c k g r o u n d. The article is devoted to the study of confirmatory distortion as a cognitive bias within the framework of the modern theory of argumentation. In the context of this study, the effectiveness of the critical questioning technique as an argumentation strategy aimed at reducing the negative impact of confirmatory bias is considered. M e t h o d s. To achieve the goals of the research, the method of critical (...)
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  42.  3
    Values, bias and replicability.Michał Sikorski - 2024 - Synthese 203 (164):1-25.
    The Value-free ideal of science (VFI) is a view that claims that scientists should not use non-epistemic values when they are justifying their hypotheses, and is widely considered to be obsolete in the philosophy of science. I will defend the ideal by demonstrating that acceptance of non-epistemic values, prohibited by VFI, necessitates legitimizing certain problematic scientific practices. Such practices, including biased methodological decisions or Questionable Research Practices (QRP), significantly contribute to the Replication Crisis. I will argue that the realizability of (...)
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  43. Implicit Bias and Prejudice.Jules Holroyd & Kathy Puddifoot - 2019 - In M. Fricker, N. J. L. L. Pedersen, D. Henderson & P. J. Graham (eds.), The Routledge Handbook of Social Epistemology. Routledge.
    Recent empirical research has substantiated the finding that very many of us harbour implicit biases: fast, automatic, and difficult to control processes that encode stereotypes and evaluative content, and influence how we think and behave. Since it is difficult to be aware of these processes - they have sometimes been referred to as operating 'unconsciously' - we may not know that we harbour them, nor be alert to their influence on our cognition and action. And since they are difficult to (...)
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  44. Illegitimate Values, Confirmation Bias, and Mandevillian Cognition in Science.Uwe Peters - 2021 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 72 (4):1061-1081.
    In the philosophy of science, it is a common proposal that values are illegitimate in science and should be counteracted whenever they drive inquiry to the confirmation of predetermined conclusions. Drawing on recent cognitive scientific research on human reasoning and confirmation bias, I argue that this view should be rejected. Advocates of it have overlooked that values that drive inquiry to the confirmation of predetermined conclusions can contribute to the reliability of scientific inquiry at the group level even when (...)
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  45.  16
    In Hindsight: An Essay Concerning My Limited Moral Understanding.Niklas Forsberg - 2024 - The Journal of Ethics 28 (2):383-404.
    This article explores one central assumption that is guiding large portions of contemporary (analytic) moral philosophy: the idea that moral philosophy has to be forward-looking and action-guiding. By paying attention to a number of examples, it is argued that this guiding assumption flies in the face of important aspects of actual moral life. Moral situations are not (always) of the nature that we can plan for them, and reason about them in advance. Rather, the moral reality, or the moral contexts, (...)
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  46.  32
    Moral hindsight for good actions and the effects of imagined alternatives to reality.Ruth M. J. Byrne & Shane Timmons - 2018 - Cognition 178 (C):82-91.
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  47. Implicit bias and social schema: a transactive memory approach.Valerie Soon - 2020 - Philosophical Studies 177 (7):1857-1877.
    To what extent should we focus on implicit bias in order to eradicate persistent social injustice? Structural prioritizers argue that we should focus less on individual minds than on unjust social structures, while equal prioritizers think that both are equally important. This article introduces the framework of transactive memory into the debate to defend the equal priority view. The transactive memory framework helps us see how structure can emerge from individual interactions as an irreducibly social product. If this is (...)
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  48. Implicit Bias as Mental Imagery.Bence Nanay - 2021 - Journal of the American Philosophical Association 7 (3):329-347.
    What is the mental representation that is responsible for implicit bias? What is this representation that mediates between the trigger and the biased behavior? My claim is that this representation is neither a propositional attitude nor a mere association. Rather, it is mental imagery: perceptual processing that is not directly triggered by sensory input. I argue that this view captures the advantages of the two standard accounts without inheriting their disadvantages. Further, this view also explains why manipulating mental imagery (...)
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  49. Prestige Bias: An Obstacle to a Just Academic Philosophy.Helen De Cruz - 2018 - Ergo: An Open Access Journal of Philosophy 5.
    This paper examines the role of prestige bias in shaping academic philosophy, with a focus on its demographics. I argue that prestige bias exacerbates the structural underrepresentation of minorities in philosophy. It works as a filter against (among others) philosophers of color, women philosophers, and philosophers of low socio-economic status. As a consequence of prestige bias our judgments of philosophical quality become distorted. I outline ways in which prestige bias in philosophy can be mitigated.
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  50.  70
    Heretical Hindsight: Patočka’s Phenomenology as Questioning Philosophy.Joel Hubick - 2018 - Journal of the British Society for Phenomenology 49 (1):36-54.
    I argue that Jan Patočka’s phenomenology can be understood as a kind of questioning philosophy that preserves the work and thought of Edmund Husserl by holding it in hindsight. Following Martin Heidegger’s lead to take up Husserl’s phenomenological questions more than Husserl’s answers, Patočka further develops Heidegger’s strategy with the addition of heresy: the philosophical process of distinguishing traditional questions from their answers in such a way as to preserve both, the original wonder sourced in questioning as well as (...)
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