Emotions influence human decisions under risk and uncertainty, even when they are unrelated to the decisions, i.e. incidental to them. Empirical findings are mixed regarding the directions and sizes of the effects of discrete emotions such as fear, anger, or happiness. According to the Appraisal-Tendency Framework (ATF), appraisals of certainty and control determine why same-valence emotions can differentially alter preferences for risky and uncertain options. Building upon this framework of emotion-specific appraisals, we conducted a systematic review and meta- (...) class='Hi'>analysis of 28 experimental studies on the effects of discrete incidental emotions on decision-making under risk and uncertainty. We evaluated potential moderators at the task and study levels. We find emotion-specific, moderately heterogeneous effects partially in line with the expectations of the ATF. The framing and financial consequences of choices, the type of choices, and the presence of other participants during the task do not moderate the effect. Our meta-analytic results support the differential influence of discrete, incidental emotions on decision-making under risk and uncertainty depending on appraisals other than valence. We discuss limited sample sizes and heterogeneity as reasons for the absence of significant moderators and encourage experimental investigations of individual differences in the susceptibility to incidental affective influences. (shrink)

Motivated by the analysis of a general optimal portfolio selection problem, which encompasses as special cases an optimal consumption and an optimal debt-arrangement problem, we are concerned with the questions of how a personality trait like risk-perception can be formalized and whether the two objectives of utility-maximization and risk-minimization can be both achieved simultaneously. We address these questions by developing an axiomatic foundation of preferences for which utility-maximization is equivalent to minimizing a utility-based shortfall risk measure. (...) Our axiomatization hinges on a novel axiom in decision theory, namely the risk-perception axiom. (shrink)

Prospect theory emerged as one of the leading descriptive decision theories that can rationalize a large body of behavioral regularities. The methods for eliciting prospect theory parameters, such as its value function and probability weighting, are invaluable tools in decision analysis. This paper presents a new simple method for eliciting prospect theory’s value function without any auxiliary/simplifying parametric assumptions. The method is applicable both to choice under ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) and risk (when events are characterized by objective (...) probabilities). Our new elicitation method is implemented in a simple paper-and-pencil experiment (via an iterative multiple price list format). This is one of the first experiments that elicits non-parametric prospect theory’s value function with salient rewards. The collected data generally confirm findings in the existing literature: the value function is S-shaped (concave in the gain domain and convex in the loss domain) though there is a weaker loss aversion on the aggregate level and a substantial heterogeneity in loss aversion on the individual level (41% loss averse, 6% loss neutral and 53% gain seeking). (shrink)

With the development of distributed networks, the remote controllability of the distributed energy objects and the vulnerability of user-side information security protection measures make distributed energy objects extremely vulnerable to malicious control by attackers. Hence, the large-scale loads may produce abnormal operation performance, such as load casting/dropping synchronously or frequent and synchronous casting and dropping, and hence, it can threaten the security and stable operation of the distribution networks. First, we analyze the security threats faced by industrial controllable load, civil (...) controllable load, and the gains and losses of attacks on the distribution networks. Considering the factors of cyber attacks, we propose a control model and cyber attack model in active distribution networks. And, three types of attacks that the target suffered are defined on the basis of “on” and “off” modes for control. Then, the controllable load was maliciously controlled as the research object, and a suitable scenario is selected. The impact of malicious control of the controllable load on the power supply reliability and power quality of the distribution networks are simulated and analyzed, and risk consequences for different types of attacks are provided. (shrink)

This study aims to explore the influence mechanism of COVID-19 risk perception on anxiety in emerging adulthood in the context of public health events of the second round of COVID-19 outbreaks and provide support for exploring the path of mental health after the normalization of the epidemic situation. An online questionnaire, combined with community social work, was used in this study, and data of 522 emerging adults were collected in February 2021. The Perceived Risk of COVID-19 pandemic scale, (...) the generalized anxiety disorder 7-item scale, the scale of affect balance, and the connor-davidson resilience scale were used to investigate. The results showed that: first, the risk perception of COVID-19 in early adulthood was positively predictive of anxiety symptoms [B = 0.110, p < 0.05, 95%CI = ]. Second, the affective quality of life plays a mediating role between the risk perception of COVID-19 and anxiety [B = 0.108, 95%CI = ]. Thirdly, resilience plays a moderating role between the risk perception of COVID-19 and anxiety, the higher the resilience of emerging adulthood, the weaker effects of the risk perception of COVID-19 negative prediction of anxiety [B = −0.110, p < 0.001, 95%CI = ]. Therefore, to control the anxiety of emerging adulthood in public health events, we should pay attention to the propaganda and management of epidemic information, improve the quality of life, and attention should be paid to the emerging adulthood with low resilience. (shrink)

College student entrepreneurship is a complex and dynamic process, in which the potential risks faced by entrepreneurial enterprises are interactive and diverse. The changes in risk assessment for college student entrepreneurship are also dynamic and nonlinear and are affected by many factors, which make the risk assessment process for college student entrepreneurship quite complicated. Big data analysis technology is a new product formed under the background of cloud computing and Internet technology, which has the characteristics of (...) large data scale, multiple data types, and strong data value and provides more technical support for the researches on the risk assessment algorithm for college student entrepreneurship. On the basis of summarizing and analyzing previous research results, this article expounded the research status and significance of the risk assessment algorithm for college student entrepreneurship, elaborated the development background, current status, and future challenges of big data analysis technology, introduced the basic principles of support vector machine and hierarchical analytic process, constructed a risk assessment model for college student entrepreneurship based on big data analysis, analyzed the risk factors and assessment indicators of the entrepreneurial model, proposed a risk assessment algorithm for college student entrepreneurship based on big data analysis, performed the discrimination coefficient calculation and comprehensive correlation optimization, and finally conducted a case experiment and its result analysis. The study results show that the risk assessment algorithm for college student entrepreneurship based on big data analysis can effectively realize the comprehensive management of risk factors, make full use of the value of assessment parameter data, and significantly improve the accuracy and efficiency of the risk assessment for college student entrepreneurship, providing more technical support for the researches on the risk assessment algorithm for college student entrepreneurship. The study results of this article provide a reference for further researches on the risk assessment algorithm of college student entrepreneurship based on big data analysis. (shrink)

An offshoot of decision analysis, risk-cost-benefit analysis (RCBA) dominates US policymaking regarding science and technology. In this paper a central normative presupposition of RCBA, called "the linearity assumption" is argued against. This is that there is a linear relationship between the actual probability of fatality and the value of avoiding a social risk or the cost of a social risk. The main object of this essay is to show that the presuppositions underlying the linearity assumption (...) are highly questionable. It is maintained that assessors ought to give more consideration to broadening their interpretations of "unit cost" and "societal risk" and to abandoning their claims about linearity. (shrink)

The risk priority number calculation method is one of the critical subjects of failure mode and effects analysis research. Recently, RPN research under a fuzzy uncertainty environment has become a hot topic. Accordingly, increasing studies have ignored the important impact of the random sampling uncertainty in the FMEA assessment. In this study, a fuzzy beta-binomial RPN evaluation method is proposed by integrating fuzzy theory, Bayesian statistical inference, and the beta-binomial distribution. This model can effectively realize real-time, dynamic, (...) and long-term evaluation of RPN under the condition of continuous knowledge accumulation. The major contribution of the proposed model is to use the random uncertainty and fuzzy uncertainty in an integrated model and provide a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to solve the complex integrated model. The study presented a case study, which presented how to apply this model in practice and indicated the significant influence on the measurement error caused by ignoring the random uncertainty caused by expert evaluation in RPN calculations. (shrink)

The online version of the original article can be found under doi:10.1007/s11948-007-9045-2.

Precaution is a relevant and much-invoked value in environmental risk analysis, as witnessed by the ongoing vivid discussion about the precautionary principle (PP). This article argues (i) against purely decision-theoretic explications of PP; (ii) that the construction, evaluation, and use of scientific models falls under the scope of PP; and (iii) that epistemic and decision-theoretic robustness are essential for precautionary policy making. These claims are elaborated and defended by means of case studies from climate science and conservation (...) biology. (shrink)

With the development of economic globalization and the policy guidance of International Financial Reporting Standards, the overseas investment of Chinese enterprises has been greatly affected. To study the overseas investment risks of Chinese enterprises, this paper applies a risk analysis model to summarize and analyze the results of overseas investment of Haier from 2008 to 2020. This paper defines the risk analysis model as risk identification, risk assessment, and risk response, and studies overseas (...) investment risks including political, economic, cultural, legal, cost, epidemic, and business risks. The existence of various risks is identified in the company’s overseas investment projects;. The overseas investment risks of Haier are evaluated, through a comprehensive evaluation method combining qualitative and quantitative, financial data, and market response;. In view of the deficiencies of the existing risk prevention measures in the overseas investment of enterprises, some reasonable suggestions are purposed. The innovation of this paper are: This paper combines IFRS 9, IFRS 15, and IFRS 16, selects theories, and combines cases to evaluate the risks of overseas investment that are difficult to quantify, and analyzes the risks of overseas investment by Z-value models and market effects. This research method has pertinence and applicability to enterprises investing overseas. (shrink)

Within the context of global debates about safety and ethics of supporting women to give birth at home, it is important to analyse documents governing midwifery and obstetric practice and influence decision‐making around place of birth. In Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom, relatively small numbers of women choose to give birth at home despite their midwifery colleges' support. In the United States and Australia, the obstetric colleges do not support homebirth and these countries have lower numbers of (...) women who birth at home, compared with the United Kingdom. There are numerous regulatory and industry challenges for midwives attending homebirths. This paper reports on a Foucauldian analysis of Australian obstetric and midwifery colleges' position statements about homebirth, who have conflicting views, with the view to understanding their arguments and underlying assumptions. The documents highlighted tensions between competing discourses of risk and autonomy and differences in academic argument. Opportunities for strengthening their statements are highlighted. The methodology is applicable for future analysis of similar documents governing practice in other countries. (shrink)

In this paper we analyse how risk factors in highly industrialised agriculture are connected to animal neglect. With Danish agriculture as a case study, we use two types of data. First, we use register data from Statistics Denmark to map how risk factors such as farmers’ financial and social troubles are connected to convictions of neglect. Second, we analyse narratives where interviewed farmers, involved in cases of neglect, describe how they themselves experienced the incidents. We find that while (...) livestock farmers in general have a low risk of animal neglect problems, a small percentage of them face severe financial difficulties, divorce and psychiatric problems, which are connected to an increased risk of being convicted for the neglect of farm animals. The narratives bring forward themes of pressure related to financial trouble, technological break down, family problems, stress and a growing concern among the farmers towards the governmental control in farm animal production. We discuss how these factors can be used to identify and help farmers with a high risk of being convicted of livestock neglect. (shrink)

Corruption involves greed, money, and risky decision-making. We explore the love of money, pay satisfaction, probability of risk, and dishonesty across cultures. Avaricious monetary aspiration breeds unethicality. Prospect theory frames decisions in the gains-losses domain and high-low probability. Pay dissatisfaction (in the losses domain) incites dishonesty in the name of justice at the individual level. The Corruption Perceptions Index, CPI, signals a high-low probability of getting caught for dishonesty at the country level. We theorize that decision-makers adopt avaricious love-of-money (...) aspiration as a lens and frame dishonesty in the gains-losses domain (pay satisfaction-dissatisfaction, Level 1) and high-low probability (CPI, Level 2) to maximize expected utility and ultimate serenity. We challenge the myth: Pay satisfaction mitigates dishonesty across nations consistently. Based on 6500 managers in 32 countries, our cross-level three-dimensional visualization offers the following discoveries. Under high aspiration conditions, pay dissatisfaction excites the highest- (third-highest) avaricious justice-seeking dishonesty in high (medium) CPI nations, supporting the certainty effect. However, pay satisfaction provokes the second-highest avaricious opportunity-seizing dishonesty in low CPI entities, sustaining the possibility effect—maximizing expected utility. Under low aspiration conditions, high pay satisfaction consistently leads to low dishonesty, demonstrating risk aversion—achieving ultimate serenity. We expand prospect theory from a micro and individual-level theory to a cross-level theory of monetary wisdom across 32 nations. We enhance the S-shaped Curve to three 3-D corruption surfaces across three levels of the global economic pyramid, providing novel insights into behavioral economics, business ethics, the environment, and responsibility. (shrink)

Abstract Aim: The COVID-19 infection is transmitted either by human-to-human contact, social-physical contact, and respiratory droplets or by touching items touched by the infected. This has triggered some conflicted behaviors such as stigma, violence, and opposite behavior applause. The aim of this study is to explore several newspaper articles about stigma, violence, or insensitive behavior against healthcare professionals and to analyze the reason for these behaviors during these COVID-19 pandemics. Method: The website of the Turkish Medical Association "Press Releases News" (...) and online newspaper articles have been scanned using keywords and have been classified and analyzed according to the content of articles between the periods of March 11 to April 28, 2020. This is a qualitative study with content analysis. No official ethical permission was obtained as the study was conducted through open access internet news sites. Result: 16 reports were selected from online reports that matched the keywords of the study. 13 of these reports included desensitization, violence, lack of precaution, stigmatization, and applause, and 3 reports included doctors’ statements. After being categorized, content analyses were conducted. Conclusion: This study revealed the necessity of a multi-faceted evaluation of the problems faced by healthcare professionals who are at the forefront of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study has a primary role in the detection, diagnosis, and treatment of the pandemic and reveals that doctors are trying to fulfill their duties in an ethical framework despite stigmatized behavior. Authorities should provide various supports to protect healthcare professionals before, during, and after the epidemic for the success of the COVID-19 outbreak struggle. (shrink)

In several experiments of survival analysis, the cause of death or failure of any subject may be characterized by more than one cause. Since the cause of failure may be dependent or independent, in this work, we discuss the competing risk lifetime model under progressive type-II censored where the removal follows a binomial distribution. We consider the Akshaya lifetime failure model under independent causes and the number of subjects removed at every failure time when the removal (...) follows the binomial distribution with known parameters. The classical and Bayesian approaches are used to account for the point and interval estimation procedures for parameters and parametric functions. The Bayes estimate is obtained by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method under symmetric and asymmetric loss functions. We apply the Metropolis–Hasting algorithm to generate MCMC samples from the posterior density function. A simulated data set is applied to diagnose the performance of the two techniques applied here. The data represented the survival times of mice kept in a conventional germ-free environment, all of which were exposed to a fixed dose of radiation at the age of 5 to 6 weeks, which was used as a practice for the model discussed. There are 3 causes of death. In group 1, we considered thymic lymphoma to be the first cause and other causes to be the second. On the base of mice data, the survival mean time of mice of the second cause is higher than the first cause. (shrink)

In this paper, I examine the decision-theoretic status of risk attitudes. I start by providing evidence showing that the risk attitude concepts do not play a major role in the axiomatic analysis of the classic models of decision-making under risk. This can be interpreted as reflecting the neutrality of these models between the possible risk attitudes. My central claim, however, is that such neutrality needs to be qualified and the axiomatic relevance of risk (...) attitudes needs to be re-evaluated accordingly. Specifically, I highlight the importance of the conditional variation and the strengthening of risk attitudes, and I explain why they establish the axiomatic significance of the risk attitude concepts. I also present several questions for future research regarding the strengthening of risk attitudes. (shrink)

This commentary provides a legal analysis of the extent to which changes proposed by scholars to promote care for substance use disorder or other under-treated illnesses through risk adjustment could be implemented administratively, without legislation, in federal risk adjustment systems: Medicare's privatized component, Medicare's pharmaceutical component, and the individual and small group market. As the article explains, federal laws governing risk adjustment provide broad discretion to regulators and can reasonably be interpreted to permit full and (...) final implementation through the administrative process of almost all of the changes that scholars have proposed. (shrink)

The EU Artificial Intelligence Act (AIA) defines four risk categories for AI systems: unacceptable, high, limited, and minimal. However, it lacks a clear methodology for the assessment of these risks in concrete situations. Risks are broadly categorized based on the application areas of AI systems and ambiguous risk factors. This paper suggests a methodology for assessing AI risk magnitudes, focusing on the construction of real-world risk scenarios. To this scope, we propose to integrate the AIA with (...) a framework developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and related literature. This approach enables a nuanced analysis of AI risk by exploring the interplay between (a) risk determinants, (b) individual drivers of determinants, and (c) multiple risk types. We further refine the proposed methodology by applying a proportionality test to balance the competing values involved in AI risk assessment. Finally, we present three uses of this approach under the AIA: to implement the Regulation, to assess the significance of risks, and to develop internal risk management systems for AI deployers. (shrink)

There has been relatively little empirical research into the causes of research misconduct. To begin to address this void, the authors collected data from closed case files of the Office of Research Integrity (ORI). These data were in the form of statements extracted from ORI file documents including transcripts, investigative reports, witness statements, and correspondence. Researchers assigned these statements to 44 different concepts. These concepts were then analyzed using multidimensional scaling and cluster analysis. The authors chose a solution consisting (...) of seven clusters: (1) personal and professional stressors, (2) organizational climate, (3) job insecurities, (4) rationalizations A, (5) personal inhibitions, (6) rationalizations B and, (7) personality factors. The authors discuss the implications of their findings for policy and for future research. (shrink)

This chapter contains sections titled: Risk Cost–Benefit Analysis Precautionary Principles Evaluating the Precautionary Principle.

Despite the role of public health interventions in controlling disease transmission and protecting the public during the COVID-19 emergency, the implementation of quarantine restrictions has raised serious ethical concerns, especially in relation to the well-being of vulnerable populations. Drawing on the lived experiences of rural Chinese migrants who are subject to pandemic control, the authors highlight their inadequate capacities to manage the risks associated with the pandemic and adjust to quarantine restrictions. Informed by an ethical discourse of vulnerability, we show (...) that underpinning this group’s deficient coping strategies is a range of detrimental social structures and institutions that have developed under the persistent rural–urban divide in China. These structural constraints and pathologies expose rural migrants to serious risks and uncertainties while depriving them of the means and resources necessary to protect their own interests in the process of complying with quarantine restrictions. Understanding the plight of rural Chinese migrants as a structural problem also has implications for the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We further suggest a need for state intervention to mitigate structural deficiencies and empower the vulnerable during the COVID-19 era. (shrink)

It is almost universally acknowledged that risks have to be weighed against benefits, but there are different ways to perform the weighing. In conventional risk analysis, collectivist risk-weighing is the standard. This means that an option is accepted if the sum of all individual benefits outweighs the sum of all individual risks. In practices originating in clinical medicine, such as ethical appraisals of clinical trials, individualist risk-weighing is the standard. This implies a much stricter criterion for (...) risk acceptance, namely that the risk to which each individual is exposed should be outweighed by benefits for that same individual. The different choices of risk-weighing methods in different policy areas seem to have emerged from traditional thought patterns and social relations, rather than from explicit deliberations on possible justifications for the alternative ways to weigh risks against benefits. It is not obvious how the prevalent differences in risk-weighing practices can be reconstructed in terms of consistent underlying principles of preventive health or social priority-setting. (shrink)

Purpose This paper aims to expose the challenges facing the attempt by Jamaica to introduce a new digital ID system without adequate regard to public consultation and the rights of citizens. Design/methodology/approach The method used is critical text analysis and policy analysis, providing background and relevant factors leading up to the legislative changes under review. Extensive literature sources were consulted and the relevant sections of the Jamaican constitution referenced and analysed. Findings The case study may have national (...) peculiarities not applicable in other jurisdictions. Its introduction acknowledges that the Jamaican Government may amend and re-submit the legislation, absent the flawed clauses. The paper however will remain valid given its detailed analysis and exposure of risks associated with biometric data collection, face recognition technology and data storage flaws. Practical implications It will be a practical example of the risks associated with flawed biometric data collection and the role of Courts in reviewing such legislation. Referrals to the Courts can be used as a remedy, as occurred not only in Jamaica but also in many other jurisdictions, including India and Kenya. Social implications The paper foregrounds the rights of citizens to be consulted on the collection and storage of their sensitive biometric data. The social implications and risks of violating the constitutional rights of citizens were made evident, and can be an example to other jurisdictions. Originality/value The paper is the first of its kind to provide detailed data and analysis on an outright rejection by the Courts of a country's ID legislation on grounds that it violated the constitution and rights of citizens. It shows the ethical and social challenges in proposing and implementing legislation without adequate public consultation on such sensitive matters as biometric data. It also exposes some of the challenges of artificial intelligence and face recognition technologies in ID data collection, including flaws related to race, gender and coding. (shrink)

Having children is probably as old as the first successful organism. It is often done thoughtlessly. This book is an argument for giving procreating some serious thought, and a theory of how, when, and why procreation may be permissible.Rivka Weinberg begins with an analysis of the kind of act procreativity is and why we might be justifiably motivated to engage in it. She then proceeds to argue that, by virtue of our ownership and control of the hazardous material that (...) is our gametes, we are parentally responsible for the risks we take with our gametes and for the persons that develop when we engage in activity that allows our gametes to unite with others and develop into persons. Further argument establishes that when done respectfully, and in cases where the child's chances of leading a life of human flourishing are high, procreation may be permissible. Along the way, Weinberg argues that the non-identity problem is a curiously common mistake. Arguments intending to show that procreation is impermissible because life is bad for people and imposed on them without their consent are shown to have serious flaws. Yet because they leave us with lingering concerns, Weinberg argues that although procreation is permissible under certain conditions, it is not only a welfare risk but also a moral risk. Still, it is a risk that is often permissible for us to take and impose, given our high level of legitimate interest in procreativity. In order to ascertain when the procreative risk is permissible to impose, contractualist principles are proposed to fairly attend to the interests prospective parents have in procreating and the interests future people have in a life of human flourishing. The principles are assessed on their own merits and in comparison with rival principles. They are then applied to a wide variety of procreative cases. (shrink)

Scientific evidence and scientific values under risk and uncertainty are strictly connected from the point of view of Peirce’s pragmaticism. In addition, economy and statistics play a key role in both choosing and testing hypotheses. Hence we may show also the connection between the methodology of the economy of research and statistical frequentism, both originating from pragmaticism. The connection is drawn by the regulative principles of synechism, tychism and uberty. These principles are values that have both epistemic and (...) non-epistemic dimension. They concern both the decisions to test a hypothesis as well as inductive risk. The validity of this result stems from the values cost–benefit analysis imposes on scientific inquiry. Values associated with the economy of research are important not only in the pre-test phases of generating hypotheses but also when hypotheses are effectively tested. Peirce took these economic considerations to leave room for an interpretation of probability which is not only a frequentist and propensity-theoretic but also a conceptualist one referring to degrees of belief. We show that this leeway nonetheless agrees with the theory of the economy of scientific methods. (shrink)

Societal evaluation of new technologies, specifically nanotechnology and genetically engineered organisms , challenges current practices of governance and science. Employing environmental risk assessment for governance and oversight assumes we have a reasonable ability to understand consequences and predict adverse effects. However, traditional ERA has come under considerable criticism for its many shortcomings and current governance institutions have demonstrated limitations in transparency, public input, and capacity. Problem Formulation and Options Assessment is a methodology founded on three key concepts in (...) risk assessment and three in governance . Developed through a series of international workshops, the PFOA process emphasizes engagement with stakeholders in iterative stages, from identification of the problem through comparison of multiple technology solutions that could be used in the future with their relative benefits, harms, and risk. It provides “upstream public engagement” in a deliberation informed by science that identifies values for improved decision making. (shrink)

This article draws on contributions from the Sociology of Science and Technology and Science and Technology Studies, the Sociology of Risk and Uncertainty, and the Sociology of Work, focusing on the transformations of employment regarding expanded automation, robotization and informatization. The new work patterns emerging due to the introduction of software and hardware technologies, which are based on artificial intelligence, algorithms, big data gathering and robotic systems are examined closely. This article attempts to “open the black boxes” of the (...) “black carpet” (robotic sorting system) and examine the reorganization of Greek postal services through the introduction of software and hardware technologies, highlighting a) the high risk of flexible, pluralistic, decentralized (under)employment and aspects of the sub-politics of automation, b) the new forms of work organization and c) aspects of labor precariousness as a result of de-specialization or “flexible expertise” interconnected with new forms of inequalities based on AI, algorithms, big data and robots as reflected in the lived experiences of workers. The above are investigated through primary empirical social research in postal service companies in Greece. (shrink)

Mainstream theories of decision making conceptualise uncertainty in terms of a well-defined probability distribution or weighting function. Following Knight, radical Keynesians consider subjective expected utility (SEU) theory and its variants as a restricted theory of decision-making applicable to situations of risk and, hence, of limited relevance to the understanding of crucial economic decisions under conditions of fundamental uncertainty in which probabilities are ill-defined, possibly non-existent. The objective of this paper is to outline a radical Keynesian theory of decision-making (...) under uncertainty, arguing that Keynes's suggestion to a two-dimensional probability-credence framework provides the basis for determining the limitations of mainstream approaches and points the way forward to the construction of a more general encompassing theory relevant to psychologists and economists outside of the Keynesian tradition. (shrink)

What is risk? How do we assess risk? What are the ethical implications of risk? The concept of risk is important – sometimes even crucial – for many philosophical domains, from philosophy of science and technology to ethics and sustainability. Philosophy and Science of Risk is a clear, wide-ranging introduction to this urgent and fast-growing subject. It covers the following key topics: -/- • The philosophical and historical background to understanding and interpreting risk -/- (...) • The meaning of risk and how it differs from closely related concepts, such as uncertainty or dangers -/- • The social construction of risk -/- • Risk perception and risk as an object of scientific study -/- • The measurement of risk, its probability and severity -/- • Risk and scientific modeling -/- • Risk, value judgments, and expertise -/- • Risk management, including cost-benefit analysis and the precautionary approach -/- • Risk communication, including deliberative models -/- • Ethics of risk, including duties toward nonhuman animals and future generations -/- • Risk and sustainability -/- • Decision-making under risk -/- Including helpful additional features such as text boxes, chapter summaries, review, and discussion questions, Philosophy and Science of Risk: An Introduction is an ideal textbook for students of the philosophy of risk. It is also suitable for students studying the conceptual questions surrounding risk in related subjects, such as sociology, psychology, economics, politics, geography, sustainability, and environmental studies. (shrink)

In reliability engineering and lifetime analysis, many units of the product fail with different causes of failure, and some tests require stress higher than normal stress. Also, we need to design the life experiments which present methodology for formulating scientific and engineering problems using statistical models. So, in this paper, we adopted a partially constant stress accelerated life test model to present times to failure in a small period of time for Gompertz life products. Also, considering that, units are (...) failing with the only two independent causes of failure and tested under type-I generalized hybrid censoring scheme the data built. Obtained data are analyzed with two methods of estimations, maximum likelihood and Bayes methods. These two methods are used to construct the point and interval estimators with the help of the MCMC method. The developed results are measured and compared under Monte Carlo studying. Also, a data set is analyzed for illustration purposes. Finally, some comments are presented to describe the numerical results. (shrink)

This edited volume looks at whether it is possible to be more transparent about uncertainty in scientific evidence without undermining public understanding and trust. With contributions from leading experts in the field, this book explores the communication of risk and decision-making in an increasingly post-truth world. Drawing on case studies from climate change to genetic testing, the authors argue for better quality evidence synthesis to cut through the noise and highlight the need for more structured public dialogue. For uncertainty (...) in scientific evidence to be communicated effectively, they conclude that trustworthiness is vital: the data and methods underlying statistics must be transparent, valid, and sound, and the numbers need to demonstrate practical utility and add social value to people's lives. Presenting a conceptual framework to help navigate the reader through the key social and scientific challenges of a post-truth era, this book will be of great relevance to students, scholars and policy makers with an interest in risk analysis and communication. (shrink)

This paper reports the results of a series of experiments examining intertemporal choice. The paper makes three contributions: First, it presents a new analytic device, the intertemporal choice triangle, which is analogous to the Marschak--Machina choice triangle used in the analysis of choice under risk. Second, we have developed a new experimental design based on the intertemporal choice triangle which allows subjects greater flexibility in making choices, and which allows the researcher to make more subtle inferences, than (...) are possible with designs previously employed. Subjects are able to create their most-preferred outcome in each choice situation by choosing a constrained linear combination of two extreme options. Third, our results show that while subjects do not typically maximize present value, they are significantly influenced break by present value considerations. We refer to this finding as it present value-seeking behavior. We find only weak evidence of several previously documented intertemporal choice anomalies in our framework. (shrink)

The financial crisis that began in the US real-estate market in 2007 and culminated in a global economic slump showed bluntly how wrong financial risk models can be. This state of affairs has triggered a number of reactions and observations at the level of the specification and use of models and at a more conceptual/fundamental level. This article focuses on the epistemic features of such models – namely the nature, source, conditions of validity, structure and limits of the knowledge (...) that ‘well-specified’ models generate – so as to assess models in a balanced way, giving due weight to the fundamental determinants of their output and warning against overestimation of their possibilities; clarify the conditions under which models can be validly applied to economic and social relationships; render intelligible why the degree of accuracy that successful models would require is intrinsically unattainable; better understand models’ failure as evidenced by the crisis; and comment on the policy steps being undertaken to prevent similar financial crisis in the future. The analysis applies the principal tenets of critical realism to the daily preoccupations of risk management professionals and financial regulators alike. It is not intended as an intervention into critical realism. It draws on the works of Tony Lawson and Roy Bhaskar, and revisits relevant aspects of John Maynard Keynes’s work, connecting dots amongst them and marrying economic and philosophical analysis with day-to-day financial risk management and regulatory issues. Content Type Journal Article Category Article Pages 462-486 DOI 10.1558/jcr.v11i4.462 Authors Mattia L. Rattaggi, UBS/Cambridge Social Ontology Group Journal Journal of Critical Realism Online ISSN 1572-5138 Print ISSN 1476-7430 Journal Volume Volume 11 Journal Issue Volume 11, Number 4 / 2012. (shrink)

The article purports to examine the risk to cultural identity amongst an Indian community in South Africa using a single case study methodology. A case study approach was followed, using the qualitative research methodology, whereby not only the how, but also adding focus on the thoughts, feelings, perceptions, experiences and motivations that people have underlie their behaviour. The year 1960 marked the 100th anniversary of the arrival of the Indians to the Colony of Natal, hence the study considers the (...) period 1895 to 1960. Identifying with a particular culture allows members of that community to experience feelings of belonging and security. Moving across continents, Indian indentured sugar plantation labourers came to the Colony of Natal from 1860 until 1911 bringing with them their cultural identity. The risk to cultural identity is a significant contributor to an individual’s well-being. Cultural identity may be viewed as a sense of belonging based on one’s ancestry, rituals, religion, traditions, values and even language. When they were transported during the concurrent time of colonisation and indenture, they became displaced and thus an emotional threat to their well-being, belonging and security was created and simultaneously experienced. This threat compromised their cultural identity. This risk to cultural identity is investigated in the narrative of an Indian female national matriarch, Mrs Takurine Mahesh Singh who arrived in the Colony in 1895 and passed away in 1959. A risk to cultural identity existed, but the Indian community in South Africa did not experience deculturalisation. They were able to practise their ancestral culture without losing their identity. This is one of the findings and it concludes the abstract.Contribution: The study of identity, identity diffusion, identity loss is a very important aspect to study, especially for displaced communities who suffer not only alienation from their mother country, but also losing contact and cultures as a result of displacement. This article provides insight on the risk to cultural identity in Natal between 1895 and 1960. In terms of the findings, cultural identity is an important contributor to well-being. Identifying with a particular culture gave the matriarch a feeling of belonging and security. It also provides access to social and other networks which provide support and shared strength, values and aspirations. Although a product of oral history, for this research, the article could not be supported by other historical materials in an attempt at balancing the views as scholars have not explored the widowed Indian nationals who have remained in the Colony after indenture. This article should not be viewed simplistically as a retelling of Mrs Singh’s life story, but rather a narrative based on reflective memories that pieced together her departure from India under the political system of indenture, living and surviving as a widow under harsh laws and having multiple identities. The narrative oral history approach combined with a qualitative research methodology does not focus on analysis and interpretation but rather brings to the fore, the opportunity for further exploratory studies where the question ‘why’ will be answered. (shrink)

Autonomous vehicles (AV) offer promising benefits to society in terms of safety, environmental impact and increased mobility. However, acute challenges persist with any novel technology, inlcuding the perceived risks and trust underlying public acceptance. While research examining the current state of AV public perceptions and future challenges related to both societal and individual barriers to trust and risk perceptions is emerging, it is highly fragmented across disciplines. To address this research gap, by using the Web of Science database, our (...) study undertakes a bibliometric and performance analysis to identify the conceptual and intellectual structures of trust and risk narratives within the AV research field by investigating engineering, social sciences, marketing, and business and infrastructure domains to offer an interdisciplinary approach. Our analysis provides an overview of the key research area across the search categories of ‘trust’ and ‘risk’. Our results show three main clusters with regard to trust and risk, namely, behavioural aspects of AV interaction; uptake and acceptance; and modelling human–automation interaction. The synthesis of the literature allows a better understanding of the public perception of AV and its historical conception and development. It further offers a robust model of public perception in AV, outlining the key themes found in the literature and, in turn, offers critical directions for future research. (shrink)

A substantial literature on risk perception demonstrates the limits of human rationality, especially in the face of catastrophic risks. Human judgment, it seems, is flawed by the tendency to overestimate the magnitude of rare but evocative risks, while underestimating risks associated with commonplace dangers. Such findings are particularly relevant to the problem of crafting responsible public policy in the face of the kinds of threat posed by climate change. If the risk perception of ordinary citizens cannot be trusted, (...) then it would seem logical to base policy decisions on expert judgment. But how rational, how trustworthy, are expert assessments of catastrophic risk? I briefly review the limitations of conventional models of expert risk analysis, especially in dealing with the large uncertainties endemic to the risk of low-probability, high-impact events in the distant future. The challenges such events pose to the underlying assumptions of these analyses are severe enough to question their basic rationality. I argue that a conception of rationality premised on the bounded knowledge of experts and lay citizens alike, based on context-appropriate heuristics, may help us in the search for a more trustworthy basis for decision making. (shrink)

The current study aims to compare compliance with the COVID-19 prevention guidelines among citizens from 13 districts in Wuhan and to explore the influence of individual-level psychological factors and district-level factors on compliance. A total of 811 participants from 13 districts in Wuhan were invited to complete surveys regarding demographics, psychosocial factors and compliance with epidemic prevention guidelines. Individual-level characteristics were combined with district-level measures to create multilevel predictive models of compliance with prevention guidelines, and used the Hierarchical Linear Model (...) to analyze the data. Findings revealed that there were significant differences in the compliance of citizens from 13 districts of Wuhan. Hierarchical linear model analysis revealed that the risk factors case growth rate, COVID-19-related perceived stress, anxiety, significantly negatively predicted compliance. Hope and conscientiousness significantly positively predicted compliance with prevention guidelines, and the negative predictive effect of anxiety disappeared. Overall, we found significant differences in compliance with prevention guidelines among different districts. Risk factors at the individual level have had a negative impact on individuals’ compliance with prevention guidelines, but this impact can be mitigated by the positive role of personal protective factors such as conscientiousness and hope. (shrink)

Purpose This study aims to ascertain the impact of data collecting awareness on perceived information security concerns and information-sharing behavior on social networking sites. Design/methodology/approach Based on communication privacy management theory, the study forecasted the relationship between information-sharing behavior and awareness of data collecting purposes, data collection tactics and perceived security risk using structural equation modeling analysis and one-way ANOVA. The sample size of 521 young social media users in Vietnam, ages 18 to 34, was made up of (...) 26.7% men and 73.3% women. When constructing the questionnaire survey method with lone source respondents, the individual’s unique awareness and experiences with using online social networks (OSNs) were taken into account. Findings The results of the investigation demonstrate a significant relationship between information-sharing and awareness of data collecting, perceptions of information security threats and behavior. Social media users have used OSN privacy settings and paid attention to the sharing restriction because they are concerned about data harvesting. Research limitations/implications This study was conducted among young Vietnamese social media users, reflecting specific characteristics prevalent in the Vietnamese environment, and hence may be invalid in other nations’ circumstances. Practical implications Social media platform providers should improve user connectivity by implementing transparent privacy policies that allow users to choose how their data are used; have clear privacy statements and specific policies governing the use of social media users’ data that respect users’ consent to use their data; and thoroughly communicate how they collect and use user data while promptly detecting any potential vulnerabilities within their systems. Originality/value The authors ascertain that the material presented in this manuscript will not infringe upon any statutory copyright and that the manuscript will not be submitted elsewhere while under Journal of Information, Communication and Ethics in Society review. (shrink)

Paradoxically, DNA sequence polymorphisms in cancer risk loci rarely correlate with the expression of cancer genes. Therefore, the molecular mechanism underlying an individual's susceptibility to cancer has remained largely unknown. However, recent evaluations of the correlations between DNA methylation and gene expression levels across healthy and cancerous genomes have revealed enrichment of disease‐related DNA methylation variations within disease‐associated risk loci. Moreover, it appears that transcriptional enhancers embedded in cancer risk loci often contain DNA methylation sites that closely (...) define the expression of prominent cancer genes, despite the lack of significant correlations between gene expression levels and the surrounding disease‐associated polymorphic sequences. We suggest that DNA methylation variations may obscure the effect of co‐residing risk sequence alleles. Analysis of enhancer methylation data may help to reveal the regulatory circuits underlying predisposition to cancers and other common diseases.Editor's suggested further reading in BioEssays DNA methylation reprogramming in cancer: Does it act by re‐configuring the binding landscape of Polycomb repressive complexes? Abstract. (shrink)

Two decades of social and political analysis have helped to enrich the concept of risk that underlies the bulk of modern environmental regulation. Risk is no longer seen merely as the probability of harm arising from more or less determinable physical, biological or social causes. Instead, it seems more appropriate to view risk as the embodiment of deeply held cultural values and beliefs – the songlines of the paper's title – concerning such issues as agency, causation, (...) and uncertainty. These values are incorporated into the formal methodologies, such as quantitative risk assessment, by which industrial societies assess risk. The meaning of risk accordingly varies from one cultural context to another, posing difficult problems for global environmental governance. The paper reflects on the role of science in promoting convergent perceptions of risk across disparate political cultures. (shrink)

Over ten years have elapsed since Virginia passed the nation's first criminal DNA banking law, which authorized law enforcement authorities to collect DNA samples from certain categories of offenders for the purposes of performing profile analysis. Within nine years, Rhode Island became the fiftieth state to enact a similar statute. The passage of a decade since the first enactment provides a convenient opportunity to assess the strengths and weaknesses of ethical safeguards under present law as well as predict (...) the likely direction of future developments.DNA forensics are merely the latest in a long line of biologically based identifying law enforcement technologies that include fingerprints and serotyping. Nevertheless, DNA has properties that make it significantly different than its predecessors with respect to the ethical and social concerns it raises. (shrink)

Over ten years have elapsed since Virginia passed the nation's first criminal DNA banking law, which authorized law enforcement authorities to collect DNA samples from certain categories of offenders for the purposes of performing profile analysis. Within nine years, Rhode Island became the fiftieth state to enact a similar statute. The passage of a decade since the first enactment provides a convenient opportunity to assess the strengths and weaknesses of ethical safeguards under present law as well as predict (...) the likely direction of future developments.DNA forensics are merely the latest in a long line of biologically based identifying law enforcement technologies that include fingerprints and serotyping. Nevertheless, DNA has properties that make it significantly different than its predecessors with respect to the ethical and social concerns it raises. (shrink)

Due to the advent of deglobalization and regional integration, this article aims to adopt LASSO-based network connectedness to estimate the multiscale tail risk spillover effects of global stock markets. The results show that tail risk varies across frequencies and shocks. In static analysis, the risk is centered mostly on the developed European and North American markets at a low frequency, and regionalization is imposed on the moderate frequency. Moreover, emerging markets could be sources of risk (...) spillover, especially at the highest frequency where there is no absolute risk center. In dynamic analysis, we use rolling window estimation and find that different frequencies identify distinct episodes of shocks, which provides us with the reason for the diverse risk centers at different time scales in static analysis. Our findings provide heterogeneous financial practitioners, regulators, and investors with diverse characteristics of stock markets under multiple time horizons and help them operate their own trading strategies. (shrink)

Background The potential for transmission of blood-borne pathogens such as hepatitis B virus from infected healthcare workers to patients is an important and difficult issue facing healthcare policymakers internationally. Law and policy on the subject is still in its infancy, and subject to a great degree of uncertainty and controversy. Policymakers have made few recommendations regarding the specifics of practice restriction for health care workers who are hepatitis B seropositive. Generally, they have deferred this work to vaguely defined "expert panels" (...) which will have the power to dictate the conditions under which infected health care workers may continue to practice. Discussion In this paper we use recent Canadian policy statements as a critical departure point to propose more specific recommendations regarding disclosure of transmission risks in a way that minimizes practice restriction of hepatitis B seropositive health care workers without compromising patient safety. The range of arguments proposed in the literature are critically examined from the perspective of ethical analysis. Summary A process for considering the ethical implications of the disclosure of the sero-status of health care workers is advanced that considers the varied perspectives of different stakeholders. (shrink)

Over the past years, one of the most contentious topics in policy debates on genetics has been the use of genetic testing in insurance. In the rush to confront concerns about potential abuses of genetic information, most countries throughout Europe and the US have enacted genetics-specific legislation for insurance. Drawing on current debates on the pros and cons of a genetics-specific legislative approach, this article offers empirical insight into how such legislation works out in insurance practice. To this end, ethnographic (...) fieldwork was done in the underwriting departments of Belgian insurance companies. Belgium was one of the first European countries introducing genetics-specific legislation in insurance. Although this approach does not allow us to speak in terms of ‘ the causal effects of the law’, it enables us to point to some developments in insurance practice that are quite different than the law’s original intentions. It will not only become clear that the Belgian genetics-specific legislation does not offer adequate solutions to the underlying issues it was intended for. We will also show that, while the legislation’s focus has been on the inadmissibility of genetic discrimination, at the same time differences are made in the insurance appraisal within the group of the asymptomatic ill. In other words, by giving exclusive legal protection to the group of genetic risks, other non-genetic risk groups are unintendedly being under-protected. From a policy point of view, studying genetics-specific legislation is especially valuable because it forces us to return to first principles: Which risks deserve our legal protection in insurance? Who do we declare our solidarity with? (shrink)

This paper presents a personal view of the interaction between the analysis of choice under uncertainty and the analysis of production under uncertainty. Interest in the foundations of the theory of choice under uncertainty was stimulated by applications of expected utility theory such as the Sandmo model of production under uncertainty. This interest led to the development of generalized models including rank-dependent expected utility theory. In turn, the development of generalized expected utility models raised (...) the question of whether such models could be used in the analysis of applied problems such as those involving production under uncertainty. Finally, the revival of the state-contingent approach led to the recognition of a fundamental duality between choice problems and production problems. (shrink)

While prior literature has widely acknowledged that the entrepreneurial environment significantly fertilizes entrepreneurship, the impact of workplace receives limited attention, and the vital role of organizations in linking social entrepreneurial environment and employee entrepreneurship has been largely ignored. Therefore, this study aims to unfold how multiple entrepreneurial environments shape employee entrepreneurship and then further reveal how such relationships vary with employees’ risk propensity. Drawn on the theoretical lens of mindsponge process, which offers an explanation of why and how organizations (...) and individuals adopt new values through the cost-benefit analysis, we proposed a research model to explain the influence mechanisms of the social entrepreneurial environment on the cost-benefit analysis of both organizations and individual employees. Specifically, given that organizations deeply embedded in the society need to balance the costs and benefits under the pressure of the social entrepreneurial environment, the social entrepreneurial environment affects the organizational entrepreneurial environment. Similarly, employees’ cost-benefit analysis under the pressure of organizational hostility will influence their entrepreneurial intentions. Through analyzing the data collected from a two-wave survey with 220 employees, we showed that organizational hostility toward employee entrepreneurship plays a mediating role between social entrepreneurial environment and employees’ entrepreneurial intentions. In addition, such mediation relationship is moderated by coworkers’ unethical behaviors during their entrepreneurship and employees’ risk propensity, which are expected to influence organizations’ and employees’ cost-benefit analysis, respectively. (shrink)

The lack of engagement of philosophy with decisions made under conditions of risk and uncertainty has lately received increasing attention. But philosophers have devoted little thought to the development of a conceptual framework for distinguishing different types of risks. This article begins by illustrating the need for a more nuanced conceptual framework. As the normative considerations risks give rise to are highly varied, ethicists need to distinguish between different types of risks. It then offers two ideas. First, it (...) proposes that we understand ‘risk’ as a multi-dimensional concept, i.e. a concept that can always be evaluated in different dimensions, e.g. a qualitative, a quantitative and an epistemic dimension. While this understanding of risk underlies the current practice of risk analysis, making it explicit is of value, in particular for the philosophical debate. It draws attention to the diversity of risks, helps to group them sensibly and sharpens existing arguments. Second, the article introduces a novel account of the notion ‘systemic risk’. Criticising existing accounts, it proposes we understand ‘systemic risk’ as referring to a risk that endangers the functioning of a system and originates in the system or its background noise, where a system is conceived of as a set of interdependent, interacting components that form a complex, functionally defined whole. The article identifies a number of structural features shared by systemic risks and evaluates the distinctive normative considerations they give rise to. It then argues that the notion ‘systemic risk’ is particularly suited to characterise some of the most pressing risks faced in an increasingly interconnected world. While the notion ‘systemic risk’ rests on the understanding of ‘risk’ as a multi-dimensional concept, it also complements it. Its necessity shows that in addressing risks, it is sometimes helpful to move beyond a characterisation based solely on their dimensions. (shrink)