Results for 'Ellsberg’s paradox'

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  1. Ellsberg's Paradox and the value of chances.Richard Bradley - 2016 - Economics and Philosophy 32 (2):231-248.
    What value should we put on our chances of obtaining a good? This paper argues that, contrary to the widely accepted theory of von Neumann and Morgenstern, the value of a chance of some good G may be a nonlinear function of the value of G. In particular, chances may have diminishing marginal utility, a property that is termed chance uncertainty aversion. The hypothesis that agents are averse to uncertainy about chances explains a pattern of preferences often observed in the (...)
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  2.  24
    In Search of a Pointless Decision Principle.Prasanta S. Bandyopadhayay - 1994 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1994:260 - 269.
    I advance a decision principle called the "weak dominance principle" (WDP) based on the interval notion of probability to deal with the Ellsberg type paradox (ETP). Given ETP, I explain three things: (i) Why WDP is a better principle than many principles e.g. Kyburg's principle and Gardenfors and Sahlin's principle, (ii) Why one should not, contrary to many principles, expect a unique solution in ETP, and (iii) What is the relationship between WDP and the principles mentioned above. I prove (...)
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  3. How Much Ambiguity Aversion? Finding Indifferences between Ellsberg's Risky and Ambiguous Bets.Ken Binmore, Lisa Stewart & Alex Voorhoeve - 2012 - Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 45 (3):215-38.
    Experimental results on the Ellsberg paradox typically reveal behavior that is commonly interpreted as ambiguity aversion. The experiments reported in the current paper find the objective probabilities for drawing a red ball that make subjects indifferent between various risky and uncertain Ellsberg bets. They allow us to examine the predictive power of alternative principles of choice under uncertainty, including the objective maximin and Hurwicz criteria, the sure-thing principle, and the principle of insufficient reason. Contrary to our expectations, the principle (...)
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  4.  49
    E-Capacities and the Ellsberg Paradox.Jürgen Eichberger & David Kelsey - 1999 - Theory and Decision 46 (2):107-138.
    Ellsberg's (1961) famous paradox shows that decision-makers give events with ‘known’ probabilities a higher weight in their outcome evaluation. In the same article, Ellsberg suggests a preference representation which has intuitive appeal but lacks an axiomatic foundation. Schmeidler (1989) and Gilboa (1987) provide an axiomatisation for expected utility with non-additive probabilities. This paper introduces E-capacities as a representation of beliefs which incorporates objective information about the probability of events. It can be shown that the Choquet integral of an E-capacity (...)
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  5. Secrecy and national security whistleblowing.Daniel Ellsberg - 2010 - Social Research: An International Quarterly 77 (3):773-804.
    The promise to keep "secrets of state," once demanded and given, becomes virtually part of one's core identity. In the national security apparatus, one's pride and self-respect is founded in particular in the fact that one has been trusted to keep secrets in general and trusted with these particular secrets. I suggest that there are psycho-social aspects of promises made under these circumstances—bearing on self-image and self-respect, as well as status and acceptance in the larger society— that especially inhibit violating (...)
     
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  6. 1. Zeno's Metrical Paradox. The version of Zeno's argument that points to possible trouble in measure theory may be stated as follows: 1. Composition. A line segment is an aggregate of points. 2. Point-length. Each point has length 0. 3. Summation. The sum of a (possibly infinite) collection of 0's is. [REVIEW]Zeno'S. Metrical Paradox Revisited - 1988 - Philosophy of Science 55:58-73.
     
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  7.  9
    " To be an object" means" to have properties." Thus, any object has at least one property. A good formalization of this simple conclusion is a thesis of second-order logic:(1) Vx3P (Px) This formalization is based on two assumptions:(a) object variables. [REVIEW]Russell'S. Paradox - 2006 - In J. Jadacki & J. Pasniczek (eds.), The Lvov-Warsaw School: The New Generation. Reidel. pp. 6--129.
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  8.  5
    On the Ellsberg and Machina paradoxes.Keiran Sharpe - 2023 - Theory and Decision 95 (4):539-573.
    This paper constructs a simple model of decision-making that accounts for the paradoxes of Ellsberg and Machina. It does so by representing decision makers’ beliefs on the vector space $${\mathbb{R}}\times {\mathbb{R}}$$ R × R and by providing a reasonable decision rule with axiomatic foundations. Moreover, the model allows for a characterization that clearly distinguishes between the two paradoxes. The interesting feature of the paper is that the ‘resolution’ of the paradoxes is along the lines suggested by the eponymous authors themselves. (...)
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  9. Expected utility theory, Jeffrey’s decision theory, and the paradoxes.Philippe Mongin & Jean Baccelli - 2020 - Synthese 199 (1):695-713.
    In Richard Bradley’s book, Decision Theory with a Human Face, we have selected two themes for discussion. The first is the Bolker-Jeffrey theory of decision, which the book uses throughout as a tool to reorganize the whole field of decision theory, and in particular to evaluate the extent to which expected utility theories may be normatively too demanding. The second theme is the redefinition strategy that can be used to defend EU theories against the Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes, a strategy (...)
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  10.  7
    The outer limits of reason: what science, mathematics, and logic cannot tell us.Noson S. Yanofsky - 2013 - Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.
    Many books explain what is known about the universe. This book investigates what cannot be known. Rather than exploring the amazing facts that science, mathematics, and reason have revealed to us, this work studies what science, mathematics, and reason tell us cannot be revealed. In The Outer Limits of Reason, Noson Yanofsky considers what cannot be predicted, described, or known, and what will never be understood. He discusses the limitations of computers, physics, logic, and our own thought processes. Yanofsky describes (...)
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  11. Fechner's paradox predicts visual adaptation to induced interocular brightness differences.E. S. MacMillan, L. S. Gray & G. Heron - 1996 - In Enrique Villanueva (ed.), Perception. Ridgeview. pp. 118-118.
     
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  12. Simpson's Paradox and Causality.Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay, Mark Greenwood, Don Dcruz & Venkata Raghavan - 2015 - American Philosophical Quarterly 52 (1):13-25.
    There are three questions associated with Simpson’s Paradox (SP): (i) Why is SP paradoxical? (ii) What conditions generate SP?, and (iii) What should be done about SP? By developing a logic-based account of SP, it is argued that (i) and (ii) must be divorced from (iii). This account shows that (i) and (ii) have nothing to do with causality, which plays a role only in addressing (iii). A counterexample is also presented against the causal account. Finally, the causal and (...)
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  13. Moore’s Paradox: New Essays on Belief, Rationality, and the First Person.Mitchell S. Green & John N. Williams (eds.) - 2007 - Oxford, England: Oxford University Press.
    G. E. Moore observed that to assert, 'I went to the pictures last Tuesday but I don't believe that I did' would be 'absurd'. Over half a century later, such sayings continue to perplex philosophers. In the definitive treatment of the famous paradox, Green and Williams explain its history and relevance and present new essays by leading thinkers in the area.
  14.  84
    The logic of Simpson’s paradox.Prasanta S. Bandyoapdhyay, Davin Nelson, Mark Greenwood, Gordon Brittan & Jesse Berwald - 2011 - Synthese 181 (2):185 - 208.
    There are three distinct questions associated with Simpson's paradox, (i) Why or in what sense is Simpson's paradox a paradox? (ii) What is the proper analysis of the paradox? (iii) How one should proceed when confronted with a typical case of the paradox? We propose a "formar" answer to the first two questions which, among other things, includes deductive proofs for important theorems regarding Simpson's paradox. Our account contrasts sharply with Pearl's causal (and questionable) (...)
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  15.  30
    The logic of Simpson’s paradox.Prasanta S. Bandyoapdhyay, Davin Nelson, Mark Greenwood, Gordon Brittan & Jesse Berwald - 2011 - Synthese 181 (2):185-208.
    There are three distinct questions associated with Simpson’s paradox. Why or in what sense is Simpson’s paradox a paradox? What is the proper analysis of the paradox? How one should proceed when confronted with a typical case of the paradox? We propose a “formal” answer to the first two questions which, among other things, includes deductive proofs for important theorems regarding Simpson’s paradox. Our account contrasts sharply with Pearl’s causal account of the first two (...)
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  16. Mathematics, Models and Zeno's Paradoxes.Joseph S. Alper & Mark Bridger - 1997 - Synthese 110 (1):143-166.
    A version of nonstandard analysis, Internal Set Theory, has been used to provide a resolution of Zeno's paradoxes of motion. This resolution is inadequate because the application of Internal Set Theory to the paradoxes requires a model of the world that is not in accordance with either experience or intuition. A model of standard mathematics in which the ordinary real numbers are defined in terms of rational intervals does provide a formalism for understanding the paradoxes. This model suggests that in (...)
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  17. Truths about Simpson's Paradox - Saving the Paradox from Falsity.Don Dcruz, Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay, Venkata Raghavan & Gordon Brittain Jr - 2015 - In M. Banerjee & S. N. Krishna (eds.), LNCS 8923. pp. 58-75.
    There are three questions associated with Simpson’s paradox (SP): (i) Why is SP paradoxical? (ii) What conditions generate SP? and (iii) How to proceed when confronted with SP? An adequate analysis of the paradox starts by distinguishing these three questions. Then, by developing a formal account of SP, and substantiating it with a counterexample to causal accounts, we argue that there are no causal factors at play in answering questions (i) and (ii). Causality enters only in connection with (...)
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    Paradoxes of multi-location.S. Barker & P. Dowe - 2003 - Analysis 63 (2):106-114.
  19. Hempel's paradox and Wason's selection task: Logical and psychological puzzles of confirmation.Raymond S. Nickerson - 1996 - Thinking and Reasoning 2 (1):1 – 31.
    Hempel's paradox of the ravens has to do with the question of what constitutes confirmation from a logical point of view; Wason 's selection task has been used extensively to investigate how people go about attempting to confirm or disconfirm conditional claims. This paper presents an argument that the paradox is resolved, and that people's typical performance in the selection task can be explained, by consideration of what constitutes an effective strategy for seeking evidence of the tenability of (...)
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  20.  26
    The 'mental eye' defence of an infinitized version of Yablo's paradox.S. Bringsjord & B. V. Heuveln - 2003 - Analysis 63 (1):61-70.
  21.  3
    Bertrand’s Paradox Revisited: More Lessons about that Ambiguous Word, Random.Samuel S. Chiu & Richard C. Larson - 2009 - Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering 3 (1):1-26.
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  22. Are Scientific Models of life Testable? A lesson from Simpson's Paradox.Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay, Don Dcruz, Nolan Grunska & Mark Greenwood - 2020 - Sci 1 (3).
    We address the need for a model by considering two competing theories regarding the origin of life: (i) the Metabolism First theory, and (ii) the RNA World theory. We discuss two interrelated points, namely: (i) Models are valuable tools for understanding both the processes and intricacies of origin-of-life issues, and (ii) Insights from models also help us to evaluate the core objection to origin-of-life theories, called “the inefficiency objection”, which is commonly raised by proponents of both the Metabolism First theory (...)
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  23. Humphrey's paradox and the interpretation of inverse conditional propensities.Christopher S. I. Mccurdy - 1996 - Synthese 108 (1):105 - 125.
    The aim of this paper is to distinguish between, and examine, three issues surrounding Humphreys's paradox and interpretation of conditional propensities. The first issue involves the controversy over the interpretation of inverse conditional propensities — conditional propensities in which the conditioned event occurs before the conditioning event. The second issue is the consistency of the dispositional nature of the propensity interpretation and the inversion theorems of the probability calculus, where an inversion theorem is any theorem of probability that makes (...)
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  24.  11
    Probability and Lycan’s Paradox.R. D. Boyd & S. K. Wertz - 1988 - Southwest Philosophy Review 4 (2):85-85.
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    Probability and Lycan’s Paradox.S. K. Wertz - 1988 - Southwest Philosophy Review 4 (2):85-85.
  26. A new solution to Moore's paradox.Anthony S. Gillies - 2001 - Philosophical Studies 105 (3):237-250.
    Moore's paradox pits our intuitions about semantic oddnessagainst the concept of truth-functional consistency. Most solutions tothe problem proceed by explaining away our intuitions. But``consistency'' is a theory-laden concept, having different contours indifferent semantic theories. Truth-functional consistency is appropriateonly if the semantic theory we are using identifies meaning withtruth-conditions. I argue that such a framework is not appropriate whenit comes to analzying epistemic modality. I show that a theory whichaccounts for a wide variety of semantic data about epistemic modals(Update Semantics) (...)
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  27.  34
    Zeno’s Paradoxes Revisited.Anguel S. Stefanov - 2013 - Logos and Episteme (3):319-335.
    My aim in this paper is to suggest a new outlook concerning the nature of Zeno’s paradoxes. The attention is directed towards the three famous paradoxes known as “Dichotomy,” “Achilles and the Tortoise,” and “The Arrow.” An analysis of the paradigmatic proposals for a solution shows that an adequate solution has not yet been reached. An answer is provided instead to the question “How Zeno’s paradoxes emerge in their quality of aporiae?,” that is to say in their quality of impasses, (...)
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  28.  7
    Feddersen and Pesendorfer meet Ellsberg.Matthew Ryan - 2021 - Theory and Decision 90 (3-4):543-577.
    The Condorcet Jury Theorem formalises the “wisdom of crowds”: binary decisions made by majority vote are asymptotically correct as the number of voters tends to infinity. This classical result assumes like-minded, expected utility maximising voters who all share a common prior belief about the right decision. Ellis : 865–895, 2016) shows that when voters have ambiguous prior beliefs—a set of priors—and follow maxmin expected utility, such wisdom requires that voters’ beliefs satisfy a “disjoint posteriors” condition: different private signals lead to (...)
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  29. Prisoner's Dilemma.S. M. Amadae - 2015 - In Prisoners of Reason: Game Theory and Neoliberal Political Economy. New York: Cambridge University Press. pp. 24-61.
    As these opening quotes acknowledge, the Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD) represents a core puzzle within the formal mathematics of game theory.3 Its rise in conspicuity is evident figure 2.1 above demonstrating a relatively steady rise in incidences of the phrase’s usage between 1960 to 1995, with a stable presence persisting into the twenty first century. This famous two-person “game,” with a stock narrative cast in terms of two prisoners who each independently must choose whether to remain silent or speak, each advancing (...)
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  30.  71
    Risk, Contractualism, and Rose's "Prevention Paradox".S. D. John - 2014 - Social Theory and Practice 40 (1):28-50.
    Geoffrey Rose’s prevention paradox points to a tension between two prima facie plausible moral principles: that we should save the greater number and that weshould save the most at risk. This paper argues that a novel moral theory, ex-ante contractualism, captures our intuitions in many prevention paradox cases, regardless of our interpretation of probability claims. However, it goes on to show that it might be impossible to square ex-ante contractualism with all of our moral intuitions. It concludes that (...)
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  31.  73
    The paradox of self-consciousness.S. Ashford - 2001 - Australasian Journal of Philosophy 79 (2):298 – 300.
    Book Information The Paradox of Self-Consciousness. By José Luis Bermúdez. Bradford/MIT. Cambridge, MA. 1998. Pp. xv + 338. $US30.00.
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  32. Long-Term Semantic Memory Versus Contextual Memory in Unconscious Number Processing.S. Dehaene, A. G. Greenwald, R. L. Abrams & L. Naccache - 2003 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 29 (2):235-247.
    Subjects classified visible 2-digit numbers as larger or smaller than 55. Target numbers were preceded by masked 2-digit primes that were either congruent (same relation to 55) or incongruent. Experiments 1 and 2 showed prime congruency effects for stimuli never included in the set of classified visible targets, indicating subliminal priming based on long-term semantic memory. Experiments 2 and 3 went further to demonstrate paradoxical unconscious priming effects resulting from task context. For example, after repeated practice classifying 73 as larger (...)
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  33. Shoemaker on Moore's Paradox and Self-Knowledge.William S. Larkin - 1999 - Philosophical Studies 96 (3):239-252.
    Shoemaker argues that a satisfactory resolution of Moore's paradox requires a _self-intimation thesis that posits a "constitutive relation between belief and believing that one believes." He claims that such a thesis is needed to explain the crucial fact that the assent conditions for '_P' entail those for '_I believe that P'. This paper argues for an alternative resolution of Moore's paradox that provides for an adequate explanation of the crucial fact without relying on the kind of necessary connection (...)
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  34.  11
    The New Defense of Determinism: Neurobiological Reduction.Mehmet Ödemi̇ş - 2021 - Kader 19 (1):29-54.
    Determinist thought with its sui generis view on life, nature and being as a whole is a point of view that could be observed in many different cultures and beliefs. It was thanks to Greek thought that it ceased to be a cultural element and transformed into a systematic cosmology. Schools such as Leucippos, then Democritos and Stoa attempted to integrate the determinist philosophy into ontology and cosmology. In the course of time, physics and metaphysics-based determinism approaches were introduced, and (...)
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  35. On the Einstein Podolsky Rosen paradox.J. S. Bell - 2004 - In John Stewart Bell (ed.), Speakable and unspeakable in quantum mechanics: collected papers on quantum philosophy. New York: Cambridge University Press. pp. 14--21.
  36. Moore’s Paradox, Truth and Accuracy: A Reply to Lawlor and Perry.John N. Williams & Mitchell S. Green - 2011 - Acta Analytica 26 (3):243-255.
    G. E. Moore famously observed that to assert ‘I went to the pictures last Tuesday but I do not believe that I did’ would be ‘absurd’. Moore calls it a ‘paradox’ that this absurdity persists despite the fact that what I say about myself might be true. Krista Lawlor and John Perry have proposed an explanation of the absurdity that confines itself to semantic notions while eschewing pragmatic ones. We argue that this explanation faces four objections. We give a (...)
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  37.  74
    Wittgenstein's analysis of the paradoxes in his lectures on the foundations of mathematics.Charles S. Chihara - 1977 - Philosophical Review 86 (3):365-381.
  38.  75
    Einstein’s “Zur Elektrodynamik...” Revisited, With Some Consequences.S. D. Agashe - 2006 - Foundations of Physics 36 (7):955-1011.
    Einstein, in his “Zur Elektrodynamik bewegter Körper”, gave a physical (operational) meaning to “time” of a remote event in describing “motion” by introducing the concept of “synchronous stationary clocks located at different places”. But with regard to “place” in describing motion, he assumed without analysis the concept of a system of co-ordinates.In the present paper, we propose a way of giving physical (operational) meaning to the concepts of “place” and “co-ordinate system”, and show how the observer can define both the (...)
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  39. On the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen Paradox.J. S. Bell - 1964 - \em Physics 1:195-200.
     
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  40. Analyzing Plato's Arguments: Plato and Platonism.S. Marc Cohen & David Keyt - 1992 - In J. Klagge & N. Smith (eds.), Methods of Interpreting Plato and his Dialogues. Oxford University Press.
    The historian of philosophy often encounters arguments that are enthymematic: they have conclusions that follow from their explicit premises only by the addition of "tacit" or "suppressed" premises. It is a standard practice of interpretation to supply these missing premises, even where the enthymeme is "real," that is, where there is no other context in which the philosopher in question asserts the missing premises. To do so is to follow a principle of charity: other things being equal, one interpretation is (...)
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  41.  6
    On Paradox: The Claims of Theory.Elizabeth S. Anker - 2022 - Duke University Press.
    In _On Paradox_ literary and legal scholar Elizabeth S. Anker contends that faith in the logic of paradox has been the cornerstone of left intellectualism since the second half of the twentieth century. She attributes the ubiquity of paradox in the humanities to its appeal as an incisive tool for exposing and dismantling hierarchies. Tracing the ascent of paradox in theories of modernity, in rights discourse, in the history of literary criticism and the linguistic turn, and in (...)
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  42.  21
    The Paradox of Being a Wounded Healer: Henri J.M. Nouwen’s Contribution to Pastoral Theology.S. Philip Nolte & Yolanda Dreyer - 2010 - HTS Theological Studies 66 (2).
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  43.  42
    The liar paradox and many-valued logic.S. V. Bhave - 1992 - Philosophical Quarterly 42 (169):465-479.
  44.  49
    Can Cybersemiotics Solve the Paradox of Transdisciplinary Knowing?Søren Brier - 2014 - Semiotics:611-641.
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  45. The paradoxes of analysis and synonymy.S. D. Rieber - 1994 - Erkenntnis 41 (1):103 - 116.
    The very idea of informative analysis gives rise to a well-known paradox. Yet a parallel puzzle, herein called the paradox of synonymy, arises for statements which do not express analyses. The paradox of synonymy has a straightforward metalinguistic solution: certain words are referring to themselves. Likewise, the paradox of analysis can be solved by recognizing that certain expressions in an analysis statement are referring to their own semantic structures.
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  46.  12
    How to solve Blum's paradox.D. K. Nelkin & S. C. Rickless - 2001 - Analysis 61 (1):91-94.
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  47.  89
    Paradox in Wave-Particle Duality.Shahriar S. Afshar, Eduardo Flores, Keith F. McDonald & Ernst Knoesel - 2007 - Foundations of Physics 37 (2):295-305.
    We report on the simultaneous determination of complementary wave and particle aspects of light in a double-slit type “welcher-weg” experiment beyond the limitations set by Bohr’s Principle of Complementarity. Applying classical logic, we verify the presence of sharp interference in the single photon regime, while reliably maintaining the information about the particular pinhole through which each individual photon had passed. This experiment poses interesting questions on the validity of Complementarity in cases where measurements techniques that avoid Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle and (...)
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  48. Separable hidden variables theory to explain Einstein-podolsky-Rosen paradox.S. V. Bhave - 1986 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 37 (4):467-475.
    A realist separable hidden variables theory in conformity with Einstein's principle of causality is developed in this paper to explain the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox, and the experimental results (including those in Aspect's four polarizers experiment) obtained so far with a view to test the non-separability of quantum mechanics.
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  49.  70
    Paradoxes of Rationality.Roy Sorensen - 2004 - In Alfred R. Mele & Piers Rawling (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Rationality. Oup Usa.
    Sorensen provides a panoramic view of paradoxes of theoretical and practical rationality. These puzzles are organized as apparent counterexamples to attractive principles such as the principle of charity, the transitivity of preferences, and the principle that we should maximize expected utility. The following paradoxes are discussed: fearing fictions, the surprise test paradox, Pascal’s Wager, Pollock’s Ever Better wine, Newcomb’s problem, the iterated prisoner’s dilemma, Kavka’s paradoxes of deterrence, backward inductions, the bottle imp, the preface paradox, Moore’s problem, Buridan’s (...)
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  50.  13
    Freeing assumptions from the Liar paradox.S. Read - 2003 - Analysis 63 (2):162-166.
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