The purpose of the study is to study the demographic situation in the Russian Federation using a system of general and particular statistical indicators, to identify the problems of socio-economic policy and suggest possible ways to solve them. The article examines various factors that influenced the demographic situation in Russia in 2000-2021; demographic problems, the consequences of which affect the socio-economic life of Russian society; the demographic situation that has arisen due to the epidemiological situation in our country. The (...) scientific novelty of the research consists in considering the influence of various factors, including pandemics, on the demographic processes in the Russian Federation. As a result of the study, possible measures were proposed to improve the socio-economic policy of the state. (shrink)

This paper recommends how authors of statistical studies can communicate to general audiences fully, clearly, and comfortably. The studies may use statistical methods to explore issues in science, engineering, and society or they may address issues in statistics specifically. In either case, readers without explicit statistical training should have no problem understanding the issues, the methods, or the results at a non-technical level. The arguments for those results should be clear, logical, and persuasive. This paper (...) also provides advice for editors of general journals on selecting high quality statistical articles without the need for exceptional work or expense. Finally, readers are also advised to watch out for some common errors or misuses of statistics that can be detected without a technical statistical background. (shrink)

The emergent properties are properties referring to a system as a whole, but they do not make sense to its elements or parts being small enough. Furthermore certain emergent properties are reducible to those of elements or relevant parts often. The paper means the special case where the description of the system by means of its emergent properties is much simpler than that of its relevant elements or parts. The concept is investigated by a case study based on statistic thermodynamics, (...) general relativity, and quantum mechanics. (shrink)

Statistical distributions have great applicability for modeling data in almost every applied sector. Among the available classical distributions, the inverse Weibull distribution has received considerable attention. In the practice of distribution theory, numerous methods have been studied and suggested/introduced to increase the flexibility level of the traditional probability distributions. In this paper, we implement different distribution methods to obtain five new different versions of the inverse Weibull model. The new modifications of the inverse Weibull model are called the logarithm (...) transformed-inverse Weibull, a flexible reduced logarithmic-inverse Weibull, the weighted TX-inverse Weibull, a new generalized-inverse Weibull, and the alpha power transformed extended-inverse Weibull distributions. To illustrate the flexibility and applicability of the new modifications of the inverse Weibull model, a biomedical data set is analyzed. The data set consists of 108 observations and represents the mortality rate of the COVID-19-infected patients. The practical application shows that the new generalized-inverse Weibull is the best modification of the inverse Weibull distribution. (shrink)

Classification in statistics is usually used to solve the problems of identifying to which set of categories, such as subpopulations, new observation belongs, based on a training set of data containing information whose category membership is known. The article aims to use the Gaussian Mixture Model to model the daily closing price index over the period of 1/1/2013 to 16/8/2020 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The daily closing price index over the period declined, which might be the effect of (...) corona virus, and the mean of the study period is about 7866.965. The closing price is the last regular deal that took place during the continuous trading period. If there are no transactions on the stock during the day, the closing price is the previous day’s closing price. The closing auction period comes after the continuous trading period, during which investors can enter by buying and selling the stocks at this period. The experimental results show that the best mixture model is E with three components according to the BIC criterion. The expectation-maximization algorithm converged in 2 repetitions. The data source is from Tadawul KSA. (shrink)

We present a new approach to the old problem of how to incorporate the role of the observer in statistics. We show classical probability theory to be inadequate for this task and take refuge in the epsilon-model, which is the only model known to us caapble of handling situations between quantum and classical statistics. An example is worked out and some problems are discussed as to the new viewpoint that emanates from our approach.

According to the Bayesian view, scientific hypotheses must be appraised in terms of their posterior probabilities relative to the available experimental data. Such posterior probabilities are derived from the prior probabilities of the hypotheses by applying Bayes'theorem. One of the most important problems arising within the Bayesian approach to scientific methodology is the choice of prior probabilities. Here this problem is considered in detail w.r.t. two applications of the Bayesian approach: (1) the theory of inductive probabilities (TIP) developed by Rudolf (...) Carnap and other epistomologists and (2) the analysis of the multinational inferences provided by Bayesian statstics (BS). ... Zie: Summary. (shrink)

Setting optimal significance levels that minimize Type I and Type II errors allows for more transparent and well‐considered statistical decision making compared to the traditional α = 0.05 significance level. We use the optimal α approach to re‐assess conclusions reached by three recently published tests of the pace‐of‐life syndrome hypothesis, which attempts to unify occurrences of different physiological, behavioral, and life history characteristics under one theory, over different scales of biological organization. While some of the conclusions reached using optimal (...) α were consistent to those previously reported using the traditional α = 0.05 threshold, opposing conclusions were also frequently reached. The optimal α approach reduced probabilities of Type I and Type II errors, and ensured statistical significance was associated with biological relevance. Biologists should seriously consider their choice of α when conducting null hypothesis significance tests, as there are serious disadvantages with consistent reliance on the traditional but arbitrary α = 0.05 significance level. (shrink)

ABSTRACTIn this article, we discuss the benefits of Bayesian statistics and how to utilize them in studies of moral education. To demonstrate concrete examples of the applications of Bayesian statistics to studies of moral education, we reanalyzed two data sets previously collected: one small data set collected from a moral educational intervention experiment, and one big data set from a large-scale Defining Issues Test-2 survey. The results suggest that Bayesian analysis of data sets collected from moral educational (...) class='Hi'>studies can provide additional useful statistical information, particularly that associated with the strength of evidence supporting alternative hypotheses, which has not been provided by the classical frequentist approach focusing on P-values. Finally, we introduce several practical guidelines pertaining to how to utilize Bayesian statistics, including the utilization of newly developed free statistical software, Jeffrey’s Amazing Statistics Program, and thresholding based on Bayes Factors, to scholars in the field of moral education. (shrink)

There is little empirical evidence showing a direct link between a capacity for statistical learning (SL) and proficiency with natural language. Moreover, discussion of the role of SL in language acquisition has seldom focused on literacy development. Our study addressed these issues by investigating the relationship between SL and reading ability in typically developing children and healthy adults. We tested SL using visually presented stimuli within a triplet learning paradigm and examined reading ability by administering the Wide Range Achievement (...) Test (WRAT-4; Wilkinson & Robertson, 2006). A total of 38 typically developing children (mean age of 9;5 years, range 6;4–12;5) and 37 healthy adults (mean age of 21 years, range 18–34) were assessed. In children, SL was significantly related to reading ability. Importantly, this relationship was independent of grade and also age. The adult data, too, revealed that SL was significantly related to reading ability. A regression analysis of the combined child and adult data revealed that SL accounted for a unique amount of variance in reading ability, after age and attention had been taken into consideration. For the first time, this study provides empirical evidence that a capacity for more effective SL is related to higher reading ability in the general population. (shrink)

Historical records show that there was no real concept of probability in Europe before the mid-seventeenth century, although the use of dice and other randomizing objects was commonplace. Ian Hacking presents a philosophical critique of early ideas about probability, induction, and statistical inference and the growth of this new family of ideas in the fifteenth, sixteenth, and seventeenth centuries. Hacking invokes a wide intellectual framework involving the growth of science, economics, and the theology of the period. He argues that (...) the transformations that made it possible for probability concepts to emerge have constrained all subsequent development of probability theory and determine the space within which philosophical debate on the subject is still conducted. First published in 1975, this edition includes an introduction that contextualizes his book in light of developing philosophical trends. Ian Hacking is the winner of the Holberg International Memorial Prize 2009. (shrink)

Ian Hacking here presents a philosophical critique of early ideas about probability, induction and statistical inference and the growth of this new family of ...

I argue that there are two distinct approaches to understanding reduction: the ontology-first approach and the theory-first approach. They concern the relation between ontological reduction and inter-theoretic reduction. Further, I argue for the significance of this distinction by demonstrating that either one or the other approach has been taken as an implicit assumption in, and has in fact shaped, our understanding of what statistical mechanics is. More specifically, I argue that the Boltzmannian framework of statistical mechanics assumes and (...) relies on the ontology-first approach, whereas the Gibbsian framework should assume the theory-first approach. -/- . (shrink)

The fundamental problem on which Ilya Prigogine and the Brussels–Austin Group have focused can be stated briefly as follows. Our observations indicate that there is an arrow of time in our experience of the world (e.g., decay of unstable radioactive atoms like uranium, or the mixing of cream in coffee). Most of the fundamental equations of physics are time reversible, however, presenting an apparent conflict between our theoretical descriptions and experimental observations. Many have thought that the observed arrow of time (...) was either an artifact of our observations or due to very special initial conditions. An alternative approach, followed by the Brussels–Austin Group, is to consider the observed direction of time to be a basic physical phenomenon due to the dynamics of physical systems. This essay focuses mainly on recent developments in the Brussels–Austin Group after the mid-1980s. The fundamental concerns are the same as in their earlier approaches (subdynamics, similarity transformations), but the contemporary approach utilizes rigged Hilbert space (whereas the older approaches used Hilbert space). While the emphasis on nonequilibrium statistical mechanics remains the same, their more recent approach addresses the physical features of large Poincare systems, nonlinear dynamics and the mathematical tools necessary to analyze them. (shrink)