Stochastic forecasts in complex environments can benefit from combining the estimates of large groups of forecasters (“judges”). But aggregating multiple opinions faces several challenges. First, human judges are notoriously incoherent when their forecasts involve logically complex events. Second, individual judges may have specialized knowledge, so different judges may produce forecasts for different events. Third, the credibility of individual judges might vary, and one would like to pay greater attention to more trustworthy forecasts. These considerations limit the value of simple aggregation (...) methods like linear averaging. In this paper, a new algorithm is proposed for combining probabilistic assessments from a large pool of judges. Two measures of a judge’s likely credibility are introduced and used in the algorithm to determine the judge’s weight in aggregation. The algorithm was tested on a data set of nearly half a million probability estimates of events related to the 2008 U.S. presidential election (∼ 16000 judges). (shrink)

This study tests the effects of top management team member collectivistic values and TMT dissatisfaction with the financial situation on the environmental ethics of TMT members. We also examine the moderating effect of collectivistic values on the relationship between financial dissatisfaction and environmental ethics. Analyses of multi-level and source data show that financial dissatisfaction of the TMT negatively affects TMT members’ environmental ethics. However, TMT members’ individual collectivism can increase TMT members’ environmental ethics. Analyses also show that TMT members’ collectivism (...) moderates the relationship between financial dissatisfaction and environmental ethics across individual and team levels. (shrink)

��The Coherent Approximation Principle (CAP) is a method for aggregating forecasts of probability from a group of judges by enforcing coherence with minimal adjustment. This paper explores two methods to further improve the forecasting accuracy within the CAP framework and proposes practical algorithms that implement them. These methods allow flexibility to add fixed constraints to the coherentization process and compensate for the psychological bias present in probability estimates from human judges. The algorithms were tested on a data set of nearly (...) half a million probability estimates of events related to the 2008 U.S. presidential election (from about 16000 judges). The results show that both methods improve the stochastic accuracy of the aggregated forecasts compared to using simple CAP. (shrink)

The dimension of spatial representations can be assessed by above-chance performance in novel shortcut or spatial reasoning tasks independent of accuracy levels, systematic biases, mosaic/segmentation across space, separate coding of individual dimensions, and reference frames. Based on this criterion, humans and some other animals exhibited sufficient evidence for the existence of three-dimensional and/or four-dimensional spatial representations.

In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content:Diacritics 30.4 (2000) 15-37 [Access article in PDF] Kant's Strange LightRomanticism, Periodicity, and the Catachresis of Genius Orrin N. C. Wang We might say that in deconstruction history is always posed as a question, at once urgent, ubiquitous, and insoluble, whereas ideological demystification conceives of its relation to history as an answer, a solution, to its critical hermeneutic. Certainly, this critical truism has special force in Romantic studies, (...) a field very much shaped by the complex relation between deconstruction and ideological critique over the last twenty-five years. But it could just as well be said that the full implications of this relation are especially clarified by the field of Romantic studies, not least because its object of study replays the tensions between these two modes of inquiry. Studying Romanticism means knowing it as a historical period but also knowing it as a figure that stands for something else: an aesthetic practice, a form of consciousness, a political aspiration, an ideology, the possibility of historicity itself. That as a figure Romanticism can be either transhistorical or tied to its historical identity makes its situation all the more complicated and compelling. Romanticism especially dramatizes the interlocking relation between period identity and trope, and the investment of literary studies in that dynamic. Romanticism is the period metaphor that both stabilizes and disrupts the very concept of period metaphors.1 The deconstruction and demystification of Romanticism is very much about the deconstruction and demystification of history, its existence as either question or calculation, trope or immanent being.But even as Romanticism asserts its special relation to history it must also confront an opposite trajectory, how its meaning is best understood through a constellation of other, larger historical identities, such as the Enlightenment and modernity itself. At present the potential disciplinary reorganization of Romanticism into the long eighteenth century is the most vivid academic expression of the question, where does the historical specificity of Romanticism reside, within itself or something larger, or both?Sorting this issue out is certainly a historical proposition, but as Romanticism's special relation to history reminds us, it is also, in Paul de Man's sense, rhetorical. Which is to say, Romanticism's relation to history is, paradoxically, not special-or, more precisely, it is a trope for something pervasive among all the period fields of literary studies, insofar as they remain particular and distinct from one another. This includes those historical entities that might subsume or entangle with Romanticism itself, that would enact historicity by absorbing a field so intent on both the enabling and worrying of historical thought. Approached tropologically, the relation of Romanticism to these larger historical periods is not simply about events and formations that constitute [End Page 15] the boundaries of historical identities. It is also about best identifying and clarifying the workings of figure that create the intelligence of such periodicity.Such labor, what de Man designated innocently enough by the term "reading," calls for its own crossing of a particular set of boundaries. A philosophical text, generated by the entanglement between Romanticism and the eighteenth-century Enlightenment, might contain sections exemplary in their recording of the interstice between trope and historical periodization. Immanuel Kant's short meditation on genius in the third Critique is, like the rest of his book, about the limits and possibilities of the judging subject; his words on genius are also specifically about the artistically creative subject. In resolving the contradictions between aesthetic judgment and creation, Kant transforms the solar light of human genius into the historical genius of the Enlightenment, which is very much the linguistic genius of Romanticism. This all occurs in a register not of consciousness or of historical truth, but of something else before either's constative realization.Kant's text is especially telling in its reflexive expression of this situation, so much so that it helps illuminate the sharp distinction between deconstruction and ideological demystification. For if deconstruction always poses history as the pressure of an insoluble, omnipresent question, it does so through figure, before truth. In contrast, ideological demystification, with... (shrink)

While dynamic epistemic logics with common knowledge have been extensively studied, dynamic epistemic logics with distributed knowledge have so far received far less attention. In this paper we study extensions of public announcement logic ( $\mathcal{PAL }$ ) with distributed knowledge, in particular their expressivity, axiomatisations and complexity. $\mathcal{PAL }$ extended only with distributed knowledge is not more expressive than standard epistemic logic with distributed knowledge. Our focus is therefore on $\mathcal{PACD }$ , the result of adding both common and (...) distributed knowledge to $\mathcal{PAL }$ , which is more expressive than each of its component logics. We introduce an axiomatisation of $\mathcal{PACD }$ , which is not surprising: it is the combination of well-known axioms. The completeness proof, however, is not trivial, and requires novel combinations and extensions of techniques for dealing with $S5$ knowledge, distributed knowledge, common knowledge and public announcements at the same time. We furthermore show that $\mathcal{PACD }$ is decidable, more precisely that it is $\textsc {exptime}$ -complete. This result also carries over to $\mathcal{S 5\mathcal CD }$ with common and distributed knowledge operators for all coalitions (and not only the grand coalition). Finally, we propose a notion of a trans-bisimulation to generalise certain results and give deeper insight into the proofs. (shrink)

Individuals engage in moral cleansing, a compensatory process to reaffirm one's moral identity, when one's moral self-concept is threatened. However, too much moral cleansing can license individuals to engage in future unethical acts. This study examined the effects of incentives and consequences of one's actions on cheating behavior and moral cleansing. Results found that incentives and consequences interacted such that unethical thoughts were especially threatening, resulting in more moral cleansing, when large incentives to cheat were present and cheating explicitly harmed (...) others. Implications are discussed in terms of ethics training, using incentives as motivators, and the depersonalized norms of science. (shrink)

We introduce a type of weighted modal logic with explicit weights both in the language and in the models. The framework has its applications in epistemic logic for reasoning about agents’ knowledge based on their capability, and in deontic logic for agents’ choices based on their deontic capability or utilities. We make use of weighted Kripke models with the weights understood epistemically as a similarity measure between states and deontically as a measure of expected utilities. We present sound and complete (...) axiomatizations for the logics, and discuss variants and possible extensions. (shrink)

The logical intuition hypothesis proposes a difference in the strength between logical and heuristic intuitions. The labels of logical and heuristic intuitions are exclusive to conventional reasoning research. This paper reports the result of testing intuition strength using the dot-probe methodology in a novel multiplication paradigm. Here, “logical intuition” and “heuristic intuition” were relabeled as “weaker intuition” (-1 × 5 = 5) and “stronger intuition” (1 × 5 = 5), respectively, to assess the assumptions about the difference in the strength (...) of “Chinese multiplication mnemonics” intuitions. The dot-probe paradigm was utilized in the following experiments to measure attentional bias. This was assessed by calculating the difference in reaction time between incongruent (the target location is opposite to the probe location) and congruent (the target location is the same as the probe location) conditions. Experiment 1 found attentional bias directed attention to the correct answer for both weaker and stronger intuitions. Experiment 2 replicated and extended Experiment 1 with a secondary task to manipulate high and low cognitive loads. Consequently, stronger intuitions were unaffected by cognitive load and participants were biased toward the correct answer, whereas attentional bias for weaker intuitions only occurred in low load conditions. These results revealed that although both intuitions can guide attention, stronger intuition may guide attention bias in a high-load situation due to its robust automation. Our findings extend the logical intuition hypothesis that proposes a difference in the automated strengths of intuitions to mathematical and analytic thinking. (shrink)

This paper analyzes individual probabilistic predictions of state outcomes in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. Employing an original survey of more than 19,000 respondents, ours is the first study of electoral forecasting to involve multiple subnational predictions and to incorporate the influence of respondents’ home states. We relate a range of demographic, political, and cognitive variables to individual accuracy and predictions, as well as to how accuracy improved over time. We find strong support for wishful thinking bias in expectations, as (...) Republicans gave higher probabilities to McCain victories and were worse at overall prediction. In addition, we find that respondents living in states with higher vote shares for Obama performed better at prediction and displayed less wishful thinking bias. We conclude by showing that suitable aggregations of our respondents’ predictions outperformed Intrade (a prediction market) and fivethirtyeight.com (a poll-based forecast) at most points in time. (shrink)

Integrating power dependence and gender role theories, we investigate the interactive effects of followers’ gender and leaders’ Machiavellian orientation in predicting followers’ usage of upward influence tactics. Using a sample of 156 matched leader–follower dyads, we found that followers’ gender moderated the relationship between Time 1 leaders’ Machiavellian orientation and followers’ use of upward influence tactics at Time 2. Specifically, the relationship between Time 1 leaders’ Machiavellianism and Time 2 followers’ ingratiation was significant and positive for women followers and non-significant (...) for men followers, while the relationship between Time 1 leaders’ Machiavellianism and Time 2 followers’ assertiveness was significant and positive for men followers but non-significant for women followers. These results suggest that gender plays an important role in how followers react to Machiavellian leaders. The social and ethical implications of these findings are discussed. (shrink)

​This volume brings together a group of philosophically oriented logicians and logic-minded philosophers, mainly from Asia, to address a variety of logical and philosophical topics, such as modal logic and related directions (e.g. temporal logic, epistemic logic, deontic logic, logic of conditionals, and modal proof theory), theory of truth, paradoxes, intentionality, and social networks. New approaches are also proposed, such as extended modal logic with planarity of graphs, extended branching time temporal logic with conditional operators, and a relational treatment of (...) language and logical systems, to name but a few.Given the variety of topics and issues discussed here, the book will appeal to readers from a broad range of disciplines, from mathematical/philosophical logic, computing science, cognitive science and artificial intelligence, to linguistics, game theory and beyond. (shrink)

This volume collects selected papers presented at the Second Chinese Conference on Logic and Argumentation in 2018 held in Hangzhou, China. The papers presented reflect recent advances in logic and argumentation, as well as the connections between the two, and also include invited papers contributed by leading experts in these fields. The book covers a wide variety of topics related to dynamics, uncertainty and reasoning. It continues discussions on the interplay between logic and argumentation which has a long history from (...) Aristotle’s ancient logic to very recent formal argumentation in AI. (shrink)

Because of the lack of interaction between seeking mode cats and tracking mode cats in cat swarm optimization, its convergence speed and convergence accuracy are affected. An information interaction strategy is designed between seeking mode cats and tracking mode cats to improve the convergence speed of the CSO. To increase the diversity of each cat, a top-N learning strategy is proposed during the tracking process of tracking mode cats to improve the convergence accuracy of the CSO. On ten standard test (...) functions, the average values, standard deviations, and optimal values of the proposed algorithm with different N values are compared with the original CSO algorithm and the adaptive cat swarm algorithm based on dynamic search. Experimental results show that the global search ability and the convergence speed of the proposed algorithm are significantly improved on all test functions. The proposed two strategies will improve the convergence accuracy and convergence speed of CSO greatly. (shrink)

N6‐methyladenine (6mA) is one of the most abundant types of DNA methylation, and plays an important role in bacteria; however, its roles in higher eukaryotes, such as plants, insects, and mammals, have been considered less important. Recent studies highlight that 6mA does indeed occur, and that it plays an important role in eukaryotes, such as worm, fly, and green algae, and thus the regulation of 6mA has emerged as a novel epigenetic mechanism in higher eukaryotes. Despite this intriguing development, a (...) number of important issues regarding its biological roles are yet to be addressed. In this review, we focus on the 5mC and 6mA modifications in terms of their production, distribution, and the erasure of 6mA in higher eukaryotes including mammals. We perform an analysis of the potential functions of 6mA, hence widening understanding of this new epigenetic mark in higher eukaryotes, and suggesting future studies in this field. (shrink)

We define balance games, which describe the formation of friendships and enmity in social networks. We show that if the agents give high priority to future profits over short term gains, all Pareto optimal strategies will eventually result in a balanced network. If, on the other hand, agents prioritize short term gains over the long term, every Nash equilibrium eventually results in a network that is stable but that might not be balanced.

In this note, it is shown that the set of kernel ideals of a K n, 0-algebra L is a complete Heyting algebra, and the largest congruence on L such that the given kernel ideal as its congruence class is derived and finally, the necessary and sufficient conditions that such a congruence is pro-boolean are given.