In this article, we articulate and defend a contextual approach to political theory. According to what we shall call ‘iterative contextualism’, context has two important roles to play in determining what is required by justice. First, it is through the exploration and evaluation of multiple contexts that general principles are devised, revised and refined. Second, significant weight should be given to the norms to be found in specific contexts because the people affected by those norms strongly identify with them. Having (...) said this, the application of general principles to particular contexts may still result in recommendations which deviate to some degree from the prevailing norms. In this case, we shall argue that although justice requires something other than what local norms say, what is required is likely to be intimated by the relevant context. Thus, whilst considerations of identification act as significant constraints on iterative contextualists’ thinking, the idea of intimations provides them with an important resource. (shrink)

We explore aspects of what it means to be a ‘moderate’ Muslim in Britain. Based on interviews with 21 Muslim intellectuals or those active in public or community debates, we examine what these Muslims think about multiculturalism. While there is a variety of views, the respondents are promulticulturalism as long as it includes faith as a dimension of ‘difference’, something they believe has only belatedly, tentatively and slowly happened in Britain. Most of the other aspects of the multicultural ideal and (...) criticisms of contemporary British practice, such as the distinction between mutual respect and tolerance, the importance of non-separateness and dialogue, the need for transformative change on the part of the minorities as well as the majority, seem to be similar to the views held by non-Muslim British multiculturalists. Yet some believe that the Qur’an, Islam and Muslim history are powerful sources of multi-culturalism and represent a form superior to any that has been developed elsewhere or is on offer in the contemporary West. This view was held by those who are experts in using and engaging with contemporary Western discourses rather than those who are authorities in interpreting Islamic texts, and so they, like most others in the group could be said to be a relatively new kind of Muslim public figure. (shrink)

It was only a few years ago that the central topic of academic political philosophy, at least in the English-speaking world, was distributive justice. The focus was very much on economic or material goods; the question being whether people were entitled to have what they had, or did justice require that someone else should have some of it. That the arguments about justice led to investigating the conceptions of self, rationality and community that underpinned them meant that the debate was (...) far from governed by economics and welfare, and was capable of moving in many directions and far from its starting-point. Yet that many of the leading participants in the ‘liberalism v . communitarianism’ debate should now have come to place diversity, pluralism and multiculturalism at the centre of their theorising, with the emphasis being on the justness of cultural rather than economic transactions, is surely not just a product of ‘following the argument to where it leads’. The change in philosophical focus is also determined by changes in the political world; by the challenges of feminism, the growing recognition that most Western societies are, partly because of movements of populations, increasingly multi-ethnic and multi-racial, and the growing questioning of whether the pursuit of a universal theory of justice may not itself be an example of a Western cultural imperialism. The politics I am pointing to is various and by no means harmonious, but a common feature perhaps is the insistence that there are forms of inequality and domination beyond those of economics and material distributions. (shrink)

Will Kymlicka has recently (in Analyse & Kritik 14, 33-56) argued that western liberals are mistaken in assuming that religious pluralism presupposes a commitment to individual rights. He instances the millet system of the Ottoman Empire as a successful form of toleration based on group rather than individual rights. In the course of his argument he makes some remarks about British Muslims and arranged marriages, sexual segregation in education and the Rushdie Affair which are false or highly misleading though typical (...) of the prejudice-cum-ignorance with which British and other intellectuals discuss Muslims. (shrink)

I accept Kymlicka’s admission that his remarks on arranged marriages and sex-segregated education were misleading, and continue to contest his description of British Muslim perspectives on the Rushdie Affair. By not recognising that Muslims are adapting to western legal systems and political culture he contributes to a polarisation and fails to see that liberals do have something to be optimistic about.

In this article, we present a case for the recognition of multiple religions, arguing that states have a non-absolute duty to recognise religions which it is likely they should discharge along different dimensions and to different degrees. More concretely, we focus on several Western European states (or regions thereof), arguing that they would be more legitimate if they were to recognise an extensive range of faiths and ethno-religious groups. In order to make this argument, we deploy a method of iterative (...) contextualism, consisting of two interlocking steps which can be thought of as obverse halves of a hermeneutic circle. First we identify and describe two cross-contextual principles, which we call identification and discretionary recognition. Then we suggest how it may be shown that these principles are already present to a significant degree in Denmark, Finland and Alsace-Moselle – the three contexts with which we are particularly concerned here. This, then, is a normatively robust and contextually sensitive argument for the multidimensional recognition of religion by a state, and at the same time it explains how we apply the method of iterative contextualism. (shrink)

This volume brings together academics from a variety of disciplines to discuss Collingwood's contributions to philosophy, aesthetics, philosophy of history, political philosophy and archaeological theory. It begins with a general survey of his contribution to history, politics and philosophy.

Many caricaturists get the idea for their caricature from current issues of society. The philosophy of the caricature lies in the opinion it presents, which discusses society’s goals, culture, and crises, and it is represented in an ironic way to deliver its visual message. The fight for women’s rights, inequality, and discrimination are examples of issues concerning Saudi women that have been represented by several caricaturists. Hence, the aim of this paper is to investigate female and male caricaturists’ linguistic and (...) semiotic representation of Saudi women’s challenging issues. Following (Kress and Van Leeuwen. 2006. Reading images: The grammar of visual design, 2nd edn. London: Routledge), a social semiotic multimodal approach to the analysis is adopted in this study, which is drawn from Halliday’s social semiotic theory. Twenty caricatures were carefully selected based on the content and the issues that are being discussed in the caricatures with a consideration of their relation to the aim of the study. The present study contributes to enriching Saudi women’s rights in relation to Saudi Vision 2030. The research is significant in that, in examining women/male caricaturists’ representations of the challenges and opportunities of Saudi women empowerment prior/after Saudi Vision 2030 in the workplace, social life, it contributes to understanding the supportive caricature discourse, basic social values for Saudi women, the pressures they undergo, and the success they have achieved so far in attaining their rights. The study findings show that both the semiotic and verbal elements of the caricatures were significant in delivering the messages for women’s rights in the new Saudi. (shrink)

Personal health technologies such as apps and wearables that generate health and behavior data close to the individual patient are envisioned to enable personalized healthcare - and self-care. And yet, they are consumer devices. Proponents of these devices presuppose that measuring will be helpful, and that data will be meaningful. However, a growing body of research suggests that self-tracking data does not necessarily make sense to users. Drawing together data studies and digital health research, we aim to further research on (...) data ambivalence, a term we use to refer to the ambiguities and uncertainties people experience when interpreting their own data, as well as the critical obligation towards cultivating ethically sound uses and responses to such data in context. We develop the relationship between data, interpretation, and context as a central theoretical and practical problem in the datafication of healthcare. We then show how interpretation and context matter for data ambivalence through an empirical study of heart patients with an implanted advanced pacemaker who were offered a Fitbit wristband for self-tracking as part of a research project. We argue that the hope, anxiety, and doubt connected to the promise and accuracy of data are tempered by the context and purpose of self-tracking, and by individual circumstances. Finally, we link the findings on context-sensitivity in data interpretation to questions about response-ability in cloud-based care infrastructures. We discuss the ethical dilemmas associated with the use of commercial wellness-technologies in healthcare, and with researching such emerging practices. (shrink)

This paper develops a critical engagement with ‘cosmopolitanism’ and specifically the geographical imaginations it implicates. It does so in order to work through some of the geographical closures in the new cosmopolitanism literature and, further, to suggest alternative — more uncertain and speculative — spatial imaginations for modes of living together with radical alterity. The paper is written in the context of the wealth of recent literature that has sought to recuperate cosmopolitanism as a progressive political philosophy and imagination. Part (...) of the paper’s intervention, however, is to suggest that mechanisms and political imaginations for living together might in fact gain much by stepping out from cosmopolitanism’s conceptual shadow. First, the paper argues that implicated within much of the new cosmopolitan literature is a planetary consciousness that has a long historical antecedence in western thought. The paper stresses the problematic textures of the planetary geographical imaginations embedded within avowedly cosmopolitan discourse, arguing that the ‘cosmos’ of cosmopolitanism is no geographically innocent signifier. It is in fact tethered to an imperial Apollonian gaze that cannot help but rekindle ancient Greek notions of formal order and beauty, Pythagorean beliefs in a universe of harmony, and their realization in western liberalism and particularly US Cold War imperialism. Second, drawing upon postcolonial re-readings of the planet and critical geographical mobilizations of place, the paper suggests alternative, less certain, and less avowedly ‘cosmopolitan’ imaginations that have the capacity to engage difference in non-assimilatory terms. Cumulatively, the paper is an attempt to answer one simple question: what difference does it make to think geographically about cosmopolitanism? (shrink)

In this paper, I explore the concept of applied Islamic ethics, the facts, its challenges, and its future. I aim to highlight some of the deep-rooted issues that Muslims have faced historically and continue to experience today as they apply religious guidance to their daily lives. I consider the causes and rationale behind the current situation and look beyond to suggest ways in which this may evolve, calling for a radical reform. Muslims throughout the world are experiencing a deepening crisis (...) of identity and confusion about their faith's principles and practices. I suggest how improvements might be achieved, in order to gain more coherence and understanding. This approach recognizes the importance of inviting an in-depth, deliberate analysis of relevant dialogues between religious experts of the text (scholars) and practitioners, those working at the grassroots. This approach remains faithful to the fundamental principles of the Islamic sources but also considers our present context. I recommend a shift in authority from scholars alone to a more inclusive, critical engagement of practitioners. Through this more comprehensive methodology of applied Islamic ethics, I suggest that Muslim communities, organizations, and individuals can remain faithful to their religious principles while, at the same time, actively participating in and contributing to our evolving societies. While I recognize that this will be a long process, I am confident that with applied Islamic ethics, the current feelings of confusion, self-doubt, and even apathy, given the previous failed processes of adaptation and reform, will give way to a new confidence in knowing how to address contemporary challenges. (shrink)

Graphical AbstractOn the Black Swans of conventional sex determination theory: There aren't many, but when an exception to the standard model of sex determination (evolutionary turnover of genes playing the role of “master sex determiner”) arises, it certainly screams out for an explanation. In this issue, a novel one is put forward. It now awaits testing, particularly at the population level.

Winner of the Award for Excellence in the Study of Religion: Textual Studies from the American Academy of ReligionFakhr al-Din al-Razi wrote prolifically in the disciplines of theology, Quranic exegesis, and philosophy. He composed treatises on jurisprudence, medicine, physiognomy, astronomy, and astrology. His body of work marks a momentous turning point in the Islamic tradition and his influence within the post-classical Islamic tradition is striking. After his death in 1210 his works became standard textbooks in Islamic institutions of higher learning. (...) Razi investigates his transformative contributions to the Islamic intellectual tradition. One of the leading representatives of Sunni orthodoxy in medieval Islam, Razi was the first intellectual to exploit the rich heritage of ancient and Islamic philosophy to interpret the Quran. Jaffer uncovers Razi's boldly unconventional intellectual aspirations. The book elucidates the development of Razi's unique appropriation of methods and ideas from ancient and Islamic philosophy into a unified Quranic commentary--and consequently into the Sunni worldview.Jaffer shows that the genre of Quranic commentary in the post-classical period contains a wealth of philosophical material that is of major interest for the history of philosophical ideas in Islam and for the interaction of the aqli and naqli sciences in Islamic civilization. Jaffer demonstrates the ways Razi reconciled the opposing intellectual trends of his milieu on major methodological conflicts. A highly original work, this book brilliantly repositions the central aims of Razi's intellectual program. (shrink)

Our objective is to examine the effects of Big Five personality traits on ethical ideologies using a time-lagged design of 406 employees of higher education institutions in Pakistan. Based on low/high idealism versus relativism, we investigate the conceptual linkage between each of the personality traits and moral philosophy. The results illustrate that extraversion and openness to experience believed on subjectivism moral philosophy, agreeableness believed on situationism, and neuroticism believed on absolutism moral philosophies. In addition, contentiousness believed on exceptionism moral philosophy. (...) Furthermore, managerial implications and future research directions are suggested. (shrink)

Science has been dazzlingly successful in explaining nature. Scientific advances also have led to certain undesirable, though unintended, side effects, one of which is alienation from the spiritual. Revelation comes from the Divine. But what is the status of authenticity of a particular piece claimed to be revelation? What is its historical validity and current state of preservation? This essay proposes to develop a list of rational criteria, in consultation with all stakeholders, for addressing the subject. The aim is to (...) bring objectivity into this discourse by placing it more on the turf of reason rather than basing it on considerations of faith and prior allegiance. (shrink)

Named by Time magazine as one of the 100 most important innovators of the century, Tariq Ramadan is a leading Muslim scholar, with a large following especially among young European and American Muslims. Now, in his first book written for a wide audience, he offers a marvelous biography of the Prophet Muhammad, one that highlights the spiritual and ethical teachings of one of the most influential figures in human history. Here is a fresh and perceptive look at Muhammad, capturing (...) a life that was often eventful, gripping, and highly charged. Ramadan provides both an intimate portrait of a man who was shy, kind, but determined, as well as a dramatic chronicle of a leader who launched a great religion and inspired a vast empire. More important, Ramadan presents the main events of the Prophet's life in a way that highlights his spiritual and ethical teachings. The book underscores the significance of the Prophet's example for some of today's most controversial issues, such as the treatment of the poor, the role of women, Islamic criminal punishments, war, racism, and relations with other religions. Selecting those facts and stories from which we can draw a profound and vivid spiritual picture, the author asks how can the Prophet's life remain--or become again--an example, a model, and an inspiration? And how can Muslims move from formalism--a fixation on ritual--toward a committed spiritual and social presence? In this thoughtful and engaging biography, Ramadan offers Muslims a new understanding of Muhammad's life and he introduces non-Muslims not just to the story of the Prophet, but to the spiritual and ethical riches of Islam. (shrink)

November 9, 2009 will mark 20 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall, the monumental event that signaled the beginning of the end of Communism in the former Soviet Union. Yet, why was this collapse of Communism considered final, but the many failures of capitalism are considered temporary and episodic? In _The Idea of Communism_, Tariq Ali addresses this very question. The idea of Communism, argues Ali, was simple and noble. _The Communist Manifesto_, which advocated the creation of (...) a society based on the principle of “from each according to his ability, to each according to his need” rather than a system based on greed and profit, appealed to millions all over the globe. However, Ali argues that the vision of society adumbrated by the founders of Communism was a far cry from what became known as actually existing socialism in the Soviet Union and China. The Communist system that developed ignored Engels’s belief that a workers’ movement and its victory were inconceivable without freedom of the press and assembly. This freedom, Engels insisted, “is the air it needs to breathe. Here, in a thought-provoking re-evaluation, Ali argues that a new form of socialism and global planning is vital to save the planet from capitalist and environmental degradation. (shrink)

Baruch Spinoza is considered one of the great rationalist thinkers of the seventeenth century. His magnum opus, _Ethics_, in which he criticized the dualism of Descartes, solidified his reputation and greatly influenced the Enlightenment thinkers who would build from his work. Born in Amsterdam into a family of Sephardic Jews who had to take refuge there after they were expelled from Portugal, the precocious young scholar imbibed skepticism at an early age. By the time he was twenty-four, he had challenged (...) what he called the “fairy tales” of the Old Testament and was excommunicated by the Synagogue. In this biographical play, Tariq Ali contextualizes Spinoza’s philosophy by linking it to the turbulent politics of the period, in which Spinoza was deeply involved. Ali originally wrote _The Trials of Spinoza_ as part of a series on philosophy for British Channel Four television, and this publication also includes a DVD of that original television production. This work will be welcomed as a testament to the continuing interest in and relevance of Spinoza’s work and as an example of Ali’s eloquent and always politically engaged writing. (shrink)

Over recent years, brain-computer interface (BCI) has emerged as an alternative communication system between the human brain and an output device. Deciphered intents, after detecting electrical signals from the human scalp, are translated into control commands used to operate external devices, computer displays and virtual objects in the real-time. BCI provides an augmentative communication by creating a muscle-free channel between the brain and the output devices, primarily for subjects having neuromotor disorders, or trauma to nervous system, notably spinal cord injuries (...) (SCI), and subjects with unaffected sensorimotor functions but disarticulated or amputated residual limbs. This review identifies the potentials of electroencephalography (EEG) based BCI applications for locomotion and mobility rehabilitation. Patients could benefit from its advancements such as wearable lower-limb (LL) exoskeletons, orthosis, prosthesis, wheelchairs, and assistive-robot devices. The EEG communication signals employed by the aforementioned applications that also provide feasibility for future development in the field are sensorimotor rhythms (SMR), event-related potentials (ERP) and visual evoked potentials (VEP). The review is an effort to progress the development of user’s mental task related to LL for BCI reliability and confidence measures. As a novel contribution, the reviewed BCI control paradigms for wearable LL and assistive-robots are presented by a general control framework fitting in hierarchical layers. It reflects informatic interactions, between the user, the BCI operator, the shared controller, the robotic device and the environment. Each sub layer of the BCI operator is discussed in detail, highlighting the feature extraction, classification and execution methods employed by the various systems. All applications’ key features and their interaction with the environment are reviewed for the EEG-based activity mode recognition, and presented in form of a table. It is suggested to structure EEG-BCI controlled LL assistive devices within the presented framework, for future generation of intent-basedmultifunctional controllers. Despite the development of controllers, for BCI-based wearable or assistive devices that can seamlessly integrate user intent, practical challenges associated with such systems exist and have been discerned, which can be constructive for future developments in the field. (shrink)

This paper presents an in-depth literature review on the driving forces and barriers for achieving operational excellence through artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence is a technological concept spanning operational management, philosophy, humanities, statistics, mathematics, computer sciences, and social sciences. AI refers to machines mimicking human behavior in terms of cognitive functions. The evolution of new technological procedures and advancements in producing intelligence for machines creates a positive impact on decisions, operations, strategies, and management incorporated in the production process of goods and (...) services. Businesses develop various methods and solutions to extract meaningful information, such as big data, automatic production capabilities, and systematization for business improvement. The progress in organizational competitiveness is apparent through improvements in firm’s decisions, resulting in increased operational efficiencies. Innovation with AI has enabled small businesses to reduce operating expenses and increase revenues. The focused literature review reveals the driving forces for achieving operational excellence through AI are improvement in computing abilities of machines, development of data-based AI, advancements in deep learning, cloud computing, data management, and integration of AI in operations. The barriers are mainly cultural constraints, fear of the unknown, lack of employee skills, and strategic planning for adopting AI. The current paper presents an analysis of articles focused on AI adoption in production and operations. We selected articles published between 2015 and 2020. Our study contributes to the literature reviews on operational excellence, artificial intelligence, driving forces for AI, and AI barriers in achieving operational excellence. (shrink)

Intelligent big data analysis is an evolving pattern in the age of big data science and artificial intelligence. Analysis of organized data has been very successful, but analyzing human behavior using social media data becomes challenging. The social media data comprises a vast and unstructured format of data sources that can include likes, comments, tweets, shares, and views. Data analytics of social media data became a challenging task for companies, such as Dailymotion, that have billions of daily users and vast (...) numbers of comments, likes, and views. Social media data is created in a significant amount and at a tremendous pace. There is a very high volume to store, sort, process, and carefully study the data for making possible decisions. This article proposes an architecture using a big data analytics mechanism to efficiently and logically process the huge social media datasets. The proposed architecture is composed of three layers. The main objective of the project is to demonstrate Apache Spark parallel processing and distributed framework technologies with other storage and processing mechanisms. The social media data generated from Dailymotion is used in this article to demonstrate the benefits of this architecture. The project utilized the application programming interface of Dailymotion, allowing it to incorporate functions suitable to fetch and view information. The API key is generated to fetch information of public channel data in the form of text files. Hive storage machinist is utilized with Apache Spark for efficient data processing. The effectiveness of the proposed architecture is also highlighted. (shrink)

Corporate Social Responsibility and environmental sustainability have become urgent concerns for contemporary businesses. This study focuses on the interplay between corporate social responsibility perceptions and pro-environmental behaviour in response to experts’ call for research on the micro-foundations of corporate social responsibility. In addition, it reveals the mechanism underpinning how perceived CSR shapes pro-environmental behaviour in an understudied developing context. Empirically, a qualitative multiple-case research design is utilised by selecting three business schools from Peshawar, Pakistan. Fourteen semi-structured interviews were conducted with (...) senior management and faculty to collect data. Besides primary data, a qualitative documentary review is used to enhance the research. Data analysis is done through the thematic network technique. Plantation, cleanliness, waste reduction, and energy conservation are the environmental aspects of CSR as regarded by employees. In addition, perceived CSR shapes pro-environmental behaviour via environmental knowledge and awareness, eco-civic sense, environmental values, personality traits, religious perspective, and perceived organisational support for the environment. This study provides original additions to the CSR literature by suggesting eco-civic sensibility and religious perspective as new CSR drivers for pro-environmental conduct. Incorporating stakeholder salience into the context of the present study also advances CSR research. The findings are also valuable for management to make the CSR agenda of business schools more strategic, comprehensive, and centred on the priorities of salient stakeholders. (shrink)

La "question" de l'islam obsède l'Occident. Religion, laïcité, citoyenneté, immigration, intégration, multiculturalisme, extrémisme : sur ces sujets, tout concourt à détériorer son image. Et que dire de ces jeunes qui partent follement en guerre, au jihâd pensent-ils, pour rejoindre des groupes violents qui trahissent les enseignements les plus élémentaires de l'islam? Dans cette confusion sans précédent, il importe de revenir aux principes et aux notions premières, en quête de solutions concrètes. Quelle conception de l'homme trouve-t-on au coeur du message islamique? (...) Comment le comprendre et l'incarner dans le contexte occidental? Qu'en est-il de l'indispensable libération des femmes? De la conception islamique de la paix et de la guerre? Comment lutter contre l'islamophobie? Questions ici posées, avec rigueur et simplicité, à l'usage des femmes et des hommes, musulmans ou non, désireux de se comprendre, de dialoguer et de vivre ensemble dans la justice et la paix. C'est à un retour aux sources qu'invite Tariq Ramadan, par un nécessaire travail de "défrichage terminologique" autour des notions centrales et trop souvent dévoyées de shahâda (témoignage), de sharî â (voie) et de jihâd (effort). Une introduction sereine à l'humanisme de l'islam. (shrink)

Que sont le bien et le mal, le licite et l'illicite? Comment déterminer le «bon comportement» et le sens de la vertu? Tout comme dans la pensée occidentale, la préoccupation éthique est centrale dans la tradition islamique. Pour comprendre ce que recouvre cette notion, il importe de se plonger dans l'histoire de la pensée musulmane. Une mise en perspective qui permet de lier la question des valeurs et de la moralité aux réflexions juridiques (fiqh), mystiques (soufisme) et philosophiques (kalam). Qui (...) détermine le «bon» et le «mauvais» au coeur de l'islam, et comment? Doit-on se référer en priorité aux sources scripturaires (Coran et traditions prophétiques)? La raison n'a-t-elle rien à ajouter? Comment l'éthique islamique s'applique-t-elle dans les domaines de la médecine, de l'économie, de l'environnement, de la psychologie, de l'éducation, des arts? Et comment la relier aux autres traditions religieuses et philosophiques? Le questionnement éthique invite à réfléchir aux finalités des savoirs. A la croisée du droit, de la foi et des sciences, cet ouvrage de synthèse ouvre une voie d'accès claire et rigoureuse à l'essence des débats ayant donné corps à l'éthique islamique. (shrink)

How different do our various religions, philosophies and traditions of thought make us? And can we see past what divides us to discover what we have in common?

The primary purpose of this study was to explore the indirect effect of intrinsic religiosity and extrinsic religiosity on ethical intention through ethical judgment. A review of the literature shows the need for more research at the intersection of religiosity and ethics, especially in non-Western, highly religious contexts. This research, therefore, addresses the research question: Do intrinsic religiosity and extrinsic religiosity indirectly impact ethical intention through influencing the ethical judgment of management professionals? Data were gathered from members of the Management (...) Association of Pakistan through a questionnaire. Pearson correlation results show the overall trend between the constructs of interest. Multiple regression results show that both intrinsic religiosity and extrinsic religiosity are significant positive predictors of ethical judgment. Ethical judgment was also found to be a significant, positive predictor of ethical intention. The main contribution of the study is evidence that ethical judgment acts as a mediator between religiosity (whether intrinsic or extrinsic) and ethical intention in a non-Western highly religious context. This research also found that intrinsic religiosity impacts ethical intention directly as well as indirectly through ethical judgment, but extrinsic religiosity influences ethical intention only through its effect on ethical judgment. We discuss our results along with practical and research implications, and limitations of this research are highlighted to guide future research. (shrink)

Zusammenfassung In der vorliegenden Untersuchung wird eine Methodik zur Prognose des sportlichen Erfolgs eines Fußballunternehmens in der Bundesliga aufgezeigt. Um der begrenzten Prognostizierbarkeit des sportlichen Erfolgs Rechnung zu tragen, berücksichtigt das Prognosemodell neben der relativen Spielergehaltssumme, dem relativen Trainergehalt und der Vereinseffizienz explizit den Zufall als Einflussgröße. Das Prognosemodell wird dabei mit Hilfe einer empirischen Untersuchung der Spielzeiten 1996/1997 bis 2002/2003 validiert und spezifiziert. Die Prognose des sportlichen Erfolgs erfolgt mittels Monte-Carlo-Simuladon. Dementsprechend liefert das Prognosemodell keinen einzelnen Erwartungswert für die (...) Platzierung, sondern eine Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung. Hieraus lassen sich Wahrscheinlichkeiten für unterschiedliche sportliche Szenarien, wie z.B. den Gewinn der Deutschen Meisterschaft oder die Champions League-Qualifikation, ableiten. Die so ermittelte Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung der Platzierung ist wiederum geeignet, für die Einnahmenverteilung eines Fußballunternehmens ebenfalls Wahrscheinlichkeiten zu ermitteln. (shrink)