Psychiatry is rapidly adopting digital phenotyping and artificial intelligence/machine learning tools to study mental illness based on tracking participants’ locations, online activity, phone and text message usage, heart rate, sleep, physical activity, and more. Existing ethical frameworks for return of individual research results (IRRs) are inadequate to guide researchers for when, if, and how to return this unprecedented number of potentially sensitive results about each participant’s real-world behavior. To address this gap, we convened an interdisciplinary expert working group, supported (...) by a National Institute of Mental Health grant. Building on established guidelines and the emerging norm of returning results in participant-centered research, we present a novel framework specific to the ethical, legal, and social implications of returning IRRs in digital phenotyping research. Our framework offers researchers, clinicians, and Institutional Review Boards (IRBs) urgently needed guidance, and the principles developed here in the context of psychiatry will be readily adaptable to other therapeutic areas. (shrink)

The tendency to neglect base-rates in judgment under uncertainty may be as Barbey & Sloman (B&S) suggest, but it is neither inevitable (as they document; see also Koehler 1996) nor unique. Here we would like to point out another line of evidence connecting ecological rationality to dual processes, the failure of individuals to appropriately judge cumulative probability.

Individuals typically produce auditory sequences, such as speech or music, at a consistent spontaneous rate or tempo. We addressed whether spontaneous rates would show patterns of convergence across the domains of music and language production when the same participants spoke sentences and performed melodic phrases on a piano. Although timing plays a critical role in both domains, different communicative and motor constraints apply in each case and so it is not clear whether music and speech would display similar timing (...) mechanisms. We report the results of two experiments in which adult participants produced sequences from memory at a comfortable spontaneous (uncued) rate. In Experiment 1, monolingual pianists in Buffalo, New York engaged in three production tasks: speaking sentences from memory, performing short melodies from memory, and tapping isochronously. In Experiment 2, English-French bilingual pianists in Montréal, Canada produced melodies on a piano as in Experiment 1, and spoke short rhythmically-structured phrases repeatedly. Both experiments led to the same pattern of results. Participants exhibited consistent spontaneous rates within each task. People who produced one spoken phrase rapidly were likely to produce another spoken phrase rapidly. This consistency across stimuli was also found for performance of different musical melodies. In general, spontaneous rates across speech and music tasks were not correlated, whereas rates of tapping and music were correlated. Speech rates (for syllables) were faster than music rates (for tones) and speech showed a smaller range of spontaneous rates across individuals than did music or tapping rates. Taken together, these results suggest that spontaneous rate reflects cumulative influences of endogenous rhythms (in consistent self-generated rates within domain), peripheral motor constraints (in finger movements across tapping and music), and communicative goals based on the cultural transmission of auditory information (slower rates for to-be-synchronized music than for speech). (shrink)

The aim of this longitudinal study was to investigate the temporal dynamics of ethical organisational culture and how it associates with well-being at work when potential changes in ethical culture are measured over an extended period of 6 years. We used a person-centred study design, which allowed us to detect both typical and atypical patterns of ethical culture stability as well as change among a sample of leaders. Based on latent profile analysis and hierarchical linear modelling we found longitudinal, concurrent (...) relations and cumulative gain and loss cycles between different ethical culture patterns and leaders’ well-being. Leaders in the strongest ethical culture pattern experienced the highest level of work engagement and a decreasing level of ethical dilemmas and stress. Leaders who gave the lowest ratings on ethical culture which also decreased over time reported the highest level of ethical dilemmas, stress, and burnout. They also showed a continuous increase in these negative outcomes over time. Thus, ethical culture has significant cumulative effects on well-being, and these longitudinal effects can be both negative and positive, depending on the experienced strength of the culture’s ethicality. (shrink)

The gray prediction model, based on the GM method, is an important branch of gray theory with the most active research and the most fruitful results, and it is the most widely used because of its small sample size, simple modeling process, and easy to use. Such advantages have been successfully applied in many fields such as transportation, agriculture, energy, medicine, and environment and have been gradually developed into a mainstream predictive modeling method. This study combines the Three-parameter Whitenization Grey (...) Model ), which fits the inhomogeneous exponential law sequence, and the Particle Swarm Algorithm to optimize the order and background value coefficients under the condition of the minimum sum of squares of simulation errors, and hence, to solve the problem that the cumulative order is fixed to “1” and the background value coefficient value is fixed to “0.5.” As a result, a parameter-optimized gray system model with flexibility, adaptability, and dynamic adjustment is designed to simulate and predict China’s higher education gross enrollment rate. The application shows that the model has better overall simulation and prediction performance than others. On the one hand, the parametric optimization model significantly improves its own performance, and on the other hand, its intelligent and adjustable adaptivity improves the accuracy and further extends its application. (shrink)

Epidemiological studies have confirmed that long-term exposure to road traffic noise can cause cardiovascular diseases, and when noise exposure reaches a certain level, the risk of related CDs significantly increases. Currently, a large number of Chinese residents are exposed to high noise exposure, which could greatly increase the risk of cardiovascular disease. On the other hand, relevant studies have found that people with high noise sensitivity are more susceptible to noise. And it is necessary to pay more attention to the (...) high noise-sensitive people. This study investigated the acute physiological effect of different noise-sensitive groups by indoor-level noise stimulus experiments under laboratory conditions, by observing heart rate variability indicators, including standard deviation of NN intervals, low frequency/high frequency, and heart rate. The results showed that there was no significant difference in HRV between the high-sensitive group and the low-sensitive group at the physiological baseline and the different stimulating noise levels. Then, based on the theory of cumulative effect of noise proposed by WHO Regional Office for Europe, non-significant but observable differences between groups were further discussed. By analyzing differences of the variation trends and the within-group significant changes of SDNN and HR between the two groups, the results tended to show that the high-sensitive group is more affected by road traffic noise. In addition, the values of SDNN and HR showed observable between-group differences at 55 dB and 65 dB which corresponding to the SPL associated with a significantly increased risk of cardiovascular disease concerned by epidemiological studies. According to the cumulative effect theory, these differences in HRV caused by short-term noise stimulation may have the potential to produce physiological response and lead to between-groups differences in prevalence after long-term recurrent effect, and deserve attention and further research. (shrink)

In this study, we explore how investors reconcile information on firms’ social responsibility with analysts’ assessments of future firm risk in the pricing of long-term bonds. We ask whether investors pay attention to small strides toward and/or small slips away from socially responsible behavior, arguing that analysts’ corporate bias toward gains and against losses influences investor reactions to corporate social responsibility. We hypothesize that analysts notice and reward improvements in social responsibility, yet excuse lapses. We find support for this hypothesis, (...) using a unique dataset of long-term bonds that combines lagged measures of firm-level financial and social performance with bond-specific data pertaining to risk of default and pricing. The empirically robust asymmetry in investor responses to small but often cumulative increases versus decreases in corporate social responsibility reveals an under-examined root cause of longer-term, larger-scale distortions in financial market returns regarding corporate social performance. Our findings elaborate earlier behavioral research on how corporate bias influences analysts’ short-term assessments of economic risk, by theorizing why this corporate bias may influence long-term assessments of social risk. Our work also motivates more critical scrutiny of the role analysts play in revising the future risk of today’s social action versus inaction. (shrink)

E-commerce sites have been doing profitable business since their induction in high-speed and secured networks. Moreover, they continue to influence consumers through various methods. One of the most effective methods is the e-commerce review rating system, in which consumers provide review ratings for the products used. However, almost all e-commerce review rating systems are unable to provide cumulative review ratings. Furthermore, review ratings are influenced by positive and negative malicious feedback ratings, collectively called false reviews. In this paper, we (...) proposed an e-commerce review system framework developed using the cumulative sum method to detect and remove malicious review ratings. (shrink)

This paper selected Vanke as the case to study the governance problems of Vanke and the protection of the interests of small and medium shareholders under the situation of equity disputes. At the same time, the study further explored the advantages and disadvantages of the dispersed ownership structure, the long-term impact on the company’s development and the choice of the involved corporate governance methods under the current Chinese capital market conditions. This paper adopted the event research method and selected the (...) period from June 2015 to June 2017 as the observation period to analyze the market performance impact of Vanke in the equity disputes. At the same time, this paper also measured Vanke’s individual stock rate of return and market rate of return, and calculated Vanke’s normal rate of return [E], abnormal rate of return, and cumulative abnormal rate of return during different event windows. Vanke’s shareholding was too dispersed and the stock price had been sluggish for a long time, which had greatly reduced the acquisition difficulty and cost of Baoneng, thus triggering the “barbarian invasion” of Baoneng. In the struggle for control, whether it was Vanke’s anti-takeover measures or China Resources, Baoneng, and Evergrande’s competition for equity, their actions had harmed the interests of small and medium shareholders. The market supervision department was too lenient to supervise and punish the interests of small and medium shareholders, and opportunism made behaviors that infringe on the interests of others more reckless. However, small and medium shareholders cannot actively participate in the company’s management decision-making to safeguard their legitimate rights and interests, which intensifies the violations of all parties in the equity disputes, thus forming a vicious circle. Therefore, the protection of the interests of small and medium shareholders required the joint efforts and consciousness of regulators, small and medium shareholders, and acquirers. (shrink)

We thank Leo Lam and Taylor Nichols for their response1 to our paper ‘COVID-19 vaccine boosters for young adults: a risk–benefit assessment and ethical analysis of mandate policies at universities’.2 In our paper, we demonstrate that the risk–benefit calculus to mandate boosters for young adults aged 18–29 is a net risk intervention. The authors assert that we have made three inappropriate comparisons of benefits versus risks of the mRNA vaccine booster dose in this age group. We provide our response to (...) each below. We erred on the side of overestimating benefits of the booster dose against severe COVID-19 in this age group and still found net harms to outweigh net benefits. The conclusion of our paper holds, and university booster mandates for young people were—and remain—unethical. For the first comparison, we weighed predicted hospitalisations prevented by one booster dose of BNT162b2 with vaccine-associated SAEs from the manufacturer’s randomised trial (3/5055).3 We found that the rate of expected SAEs would outweigh the benefits of the booster against hospitalisation by at least 18-fold. Lam and Nichols suggest that this was an inappropriate comparison, as not all SAEs result in hospitalisation. However, the definition of SAE as used in the trial included death, hospitalisation, disability, permanent damage, life-threatening event or condition, which required medical or surgical intervention to prevent a serious outcome.4 While all comparisons include some degree of incommensurability, comparing these SAEs with hospitalisations prevented by the booster is more reasonable than Lam and Nichols’ suggestion of comparing SAEs to infections prevented. The COVID-19 infection hospitalisation risk in this age group was <0.5% (or <1/200)5 even prior to widespread immunity, thus comparing SAEs to infection risk is entirely inappropriate. Furthermore, a booster dose will only offer transient (if any) protection against infection6 and cumulative infection rates …. (shrink)

La réflexion sur la contrepartie que la télévision publique doit offrir au paiement de la redevance par l'ensemble des téléspectateurs relève d'un débat public orchestré par les représentants de l'Etat. La télévision publique ne peut se soustraire à une mesure de son audience, mais peut proposer des critères d'évaluation appropriés, comme les indicateurs d'audience cumulée qui expriment l'étendue du public touché. Plus fondamentalement, afin de développer le dialogue avec le public, France Télévisions a instauré un droit de chaque téléspectateur à (...) être écouté, à obtenir une réponse et à s'assurer que ses remarques seront considérées avec respect, à travers un dispositif de médiateurs et un service de relation avec les téléspectateurs.Any thought on what public television must offer to viewers in return for their licence fee is dependent on a public discussion orchestrated by State representatives. Public television cannot be excluded from audience ratings but can propose adapted criteria of evaluation, like the indicators of cumulated audience ratings which express the range of the audience covered. Basically, to develop a dialogue with the public France Télévisions adopted the policy that each viewer should have the right to be listened to, the right to obtain an answer and the right to have his or her remarks considered with respect through a system of mediators and a customer service department for viewers. (shrink)

This paper reports on action research that evaluated local perceptions and knowledge of indigenous tree planting and management in the Romwe catchment, Chivi District, southern Zimbabwe. The species tested were the overexploited Afzelia quanzensis, important for timber and carvings of sculptures and utensils; Sclerocarya birrea, the marula tree used for wood, bark, and fruit; and Brachystegia glaucescens, the dominant miombo tree species, used for firewood, fiber, and fodder. Participants volunteered to plant and manage the test seeds, while a research team (...) monitored their activities and results for 26 months. For Afzelia quanzensis, the germination rate was 81%, and 69% of the seedlings were still alive after one year. In the case of Sclerocarya birrea, the germination rate was 69%, and the one-year survival rate was 50%. For Brachystegia glaucescens, the germination rate was only 30%, and the survival rate was 31%. The main reasons for planting were to provide shade, to serve as a windbreak, and to conserve and gain individual control over dwindling natural resources, particularly Afzelia quanzensis. Women were generally more active and innovative than men. For instance, they searched for their own seeds or seedlings in the bush when there weren’t sufficient plants. Some participants tried out various indigenous methods of pest and disease control, water conservation, and moisture retention. Group feedback sessions and informal interactions provided the opportunity to share experiences. The participants learned that indigenous trees can be purposefully planted and were not simply a gift from God. Despite the droughts and political instability of recent years, a growing number of people became involved in tree planting during 2002–2003. As a result, there is now greater awareness among the local population of dwindling resources and their future potential. (shrink)

This chapter discusses what maximin egalitarians should think about two types of age-sensitive taxation. One is a form of cumulative income taxation, which taxes yearly incomes taking into account all earlier income years instead of only the last one. The second is age-differentiated taxation, which taxes yearly incomes adjusting the rate to the taxpayer’s age. The chapter first presents the main reasons supporting cumulative income taxation and then proceeds to look at how it affects fiscal obligations across (...) life. Then it argues that egalitarians should aim at a fiscal reform that benefits the young and the elderly but not the middle-aged. Finally, it questions whether cumulative income taxes can deliver this without resorting to age-differentiated taxes. The chapter shows that while cumulative income taxation can benefit the young, age-differentiated taxes are necessary to benefit the elderly. (shrink)

Objective of the study: To analyze the costs and profits of sugarcane production regarding the cultural practices of sugarcane suppliers. Methodology/approach: This study positions itself in this gap by comparatively analyzing 6 types of cultural practices: unraveling, windrowing, application of correctives, herbicides, insecticides and fertilizers, with the option of two systems Fixed rate (TF) and Variable rate (TV). Originality/Relevance: Brazil is a world reference in sugarcane production, with the State of São Paulo being the largest Brazilian producer. However, (...) for sugarcane suppliers to maintain this activity there is a need to reduce production costs and increase profitability/ha. However, there is a theoretical-practical gap in the financial assessment (costs and profits) of different cultural practices inherent to sugarcane production. Main results: The results demonstrated that the costs of cultural practices represent more than 30% of the total sugarcane production costs. The TF system proved to be more cost-efficient in the following operations: correctives, herbicides and insecticides. In the application of fertilizers, the TV system, in broadcast mode, had the best result. Finally, the profit/ton was R$1.70, demonstrating a very low profit margin/ha given the risk of the activity. Theoretical/methodological contributions: The sample for this research comprised 55 sugarcane suppliers from the State of São Paulo, whose data were obtained through a survey. The comparative analysis was based on the difference in costs of cultural practices and the estimation of the level of certainty (profit/costs), analyzed through the cumulative frequency carried out through the Monte Carlo Simulation (SMC). (shrink)

When making decisions, humans can observe many kinds of information about others' activities, but their effects on performance are not well understood. We investigated social learning strategies using a simple problem-solving task in which participants search a complex space, and each can view and imitate others' solutions. Results showed that participants combined multiple sources of information to guide learning, including payoffs of peers' solutions, popularity of solution elements among peers, similarity of peers' solutions to their own, and relative payoffs from (...) individual exploration. Furthermore, performance was positively associated with imitation rates at both the individual and group levels. When peers' payoffs were hidden, popularity and similarity biases reversed, participants searched more broadly and randomly, and both quality and equity of exploration suffered. We conclude that when peers' solutions can be effectively compared, imitation does not simply permit scrounging, but it can also facilitate propagation of good solutions for further cumulative exploration. (shrink)

The diversity in agronomic practices being used by sugarcane producers in Brazil determines differences in economic performance and cost structure. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the cost of six systems of agronomic practices using fixed or variable rates for soil amendment, fertilizer, and defensive applications and assess the profitability of these systems at three scales of sugarcane production. We then describe the data sample related to the 2019–2020 harvest season and collected from fifty-five sugarcane producers in the (...) central-south region of Brazil. Thereafter, using a quantitative approach, a cost analysis was performed, and the cumulative frequency of the net revenue for the three scales of production (small, medium, and large), was calculated using a Monte Carlo simulation. The cost analysis indicated that fertilizer had the highest cost considering the agronomic practices adopted at the three scales of production analyzed. The cumulative frequency analysis results from the Monte Carlo simulation showed the highest net revenue per hectare for medium sugarcane producers. In addition, the presence of economies of scale was not confirmed because the lowest cost was found in small-scale sugarcane producers and the highest net revenue was obtained by medium-scale sugarcane producers. (shrink)

This research on the rate of actzvzty of the Members of the Belgian Senate is a remake of a study made five years ago by M. Dèweerdt, although the method is different the results are nearly the same.Half of parliamentary work is performed by less than one fifth of the Members. The directly elected Members, who are also Members of the «Vlaamse Raad» or of the «Conseil de la Communauté française» or of the «Conseil Régional Wallon», seem also less (...) active than their indirectly elected colleagues, which does not plead for the legally organized cumulation of mandates.The Members in charge of a municipal mandate are also less active than their colleagues. On the contrary, it was impossible to trace any link between language, parliamentary position, or sex and rate of parliamentary activity. (shrink)

The birth rates per 1000 married females of specified ages and durations of marriage generally attained their post-war maxima in 19463000 and (b) the cumulative fertility up to 5 or 10 years of marriage duration of later cohorts was considerably higher (13–40% higher) than that of earlier cohorts. These facts, and similar ones for Australia covering a wider period (Basavarajappa, 1964), are thought to suggest that the total fertility of cohorts who have not yet completed their childbearing might not (...) be far outside the limits of 2500 and 3000. (shrink)

Background: Debates over legalisation of physician-assisted suicide or euthanasia often warn of a “slippery slope”, predicting abuse of people in vulnerable groups. To assess this concern, the authors examined data from Oregon and the Netherlands, the two principal jurisdictions in which physician-assisted dying is legal and data have been collected over a substantial period.Methods: The data from Oregon comprised all annual and cumulative Department of Human Services reports 1998–2006 and three independent studies; the data from the Netherlands comprised all (...) four government-commissioned nationwide studies of end-of-life decision making and specialised studies. Evidence of any disproportionate impact on 10 groups of potentially vulnerable patients was sought.Results: Rates of assisted dying in Oregon and in the Netherlands showed no evidence of heightened risk for the elderly, women, the uninsured , people with low educational status, the poor, the physically disabled or chronically ill, minors, people with psychiatric illnesses including depression, or racial or ethnic minorities, compared with background populations. The only group with a heightened risk was people with AIDS. While extralegal cases were not the focus of this study, none have been uncovered in Oregon; among extralegal cases in the Netherlands, there was no evidence of higher rates in vulnerable groups.Conclusions: Where assisted dying is already legal, there is no current evidence for the claim that legalised PAS or euthanasia will have disproportionate impact on patients in vulnerable groups. Those who received physician-assisted dying in the jurisdictions studied appeared to enjoy comparative social, economic, educational, professional and other privileges. (shrink)

The typical outcome measure in infertility treatment is the (cumulative) healthy live birth rate per patient or per cycle. This means that those who end the treatment trajectory with a healthy baby in their arms are considered to be successful and those who do not are considered to have failed. In this article, we argue that by adopting the healthy live birth standard as the outcome measure that defines a successful fertility treatment, it becomes an interpretative self-fulfilling prophecy: (...) those who achieve the goal consider themselves successful and those who do not consider themselves failures. This is regardless of the fact that having children is only one out of many ways to alleviate the suffering related to infertility and that stopping fertility treatment can also be a positive decision to move on to other goals, rather than a form of “giving up,” “dropping out,” “nonadherence,” or failure. We suggest that those seeking fertility treatment would be served better by an alternative outcome measure, which can be equally self-fulfilling, according to which a successful treatment is one in which people leave the clinic released from the suffering that accompanied their status as infertile when they first entered the clinic. This new outcome measure still implies that walking out with a healthy baby is a positive outcome. What changes is that walking out without a baby can also be a positive outcome, rather than being marked exclusively as a failure. (shrink)

Social scientists are often interested in understanding how the dynamics of social systems are driven by the behavior of individuals that make up those systems. However, this process is hindered by the difficulty of experimentally studying how individual behavioral tendencies lead to collective social dynamics in large groups of people interacting over time. In this study, we investigate the role of social influence, a process well studied at the individual level, on the puzzling nature of success for cultural products such (...) as books, movies, and music. Using a “multiple‐worlds” experimental design, we are able to isolate the causal effect of an individual‐level mechanism on collective social outcomes. We employ this design in a Web‐based experiment in which 2,930 participants listened to, rated, and downloaded 48 songs by up‐and‐coming bands. Surprisingly, despite relatively large differences in the demographics, behavior, and preferences of participants, the experimental results at both the individual and collective levels were similar to those found in Salganik, Dodds, and Watts (2006). Further, by comparing results from two distinct pools of participants, we are able to gain new insights into the role of individual behavior on collective outcomes. We conclude with a discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of Web‐based experiments to address questions of collective social dynamics. (shrink)

Behavioral genetics and cultural evolution have both revolutionized our understanding of human behavior – largely independent of each other. Here, we reconcile these two fields under a dual inheritance framework, offering a more nuanced understanding of the interaction between genes and culture. Going beyond typical analyses of gene–environment interactions, we describe the cultural dynamics that shape these interactions by shaping the environment and population structure. A cultural evolutionary approach can explain, for example, how factors such as rates of innovation and (...) diffusion, density of cultural subgroups, and tolerance for behavioral diversity impact heritability estimates, thus yielding predictions for different social contexts. Moreover, when cumulative culture functionally overlaps with genes, genetic effects become masked, unmasked, or even reversed, and the causal effects of an identified gene become confounded with features of the cultural environment. The manner of confounding is specific to a particular society at a particular time, but a WEIRD (western, educated, industrialized, rich, and democratic) sampling problem obscures this boundedness. Cultural evolutionary dynamics are typically missing from models of gene-to-phenotype causality, hindering generalizability of genetic effects across societies and across time. We lay out a reconciled framework and use it to predict the ways in which heritability should differ between societies, between socioeconomic levels, and other groupings within some societies but not others, and over the life course. An integrated cultural evolutionary behavioral genetic approach cuts through the nature–nurture debate and helps resolve controversies in topics such as IQ. (shrink)

There is an ongoing debate about loss of control in addiction: Some theorists say at least some addicts’ drug-directed desires are irresistible, while others insist that pursuing drugs is a choice. The debate is long-standing and has essentially reached a stalemate. This essay suggests a way forward. I propose an alternative model of loss of control in addiction, one based not on irresistibility, but rather fallibility. According to the model, on every occasion of use, self-control processes exhibit a low, but (...) non-zero, rate of failure due to error. When these processes confront highly recurrent drug-directed desires, the cumulative probability of a self-control lapse steadily grows. The model shows why the following statement—which has an air of paradox—can in fact be true: Each drug-directed desire the addict faces is fully resistible, but the addict nonetheless has significantly diminished control over eventually giving in. (shrink)

Much human adaptation depends on the gradual accumulation of culturally transmitted knowledge and technology. Recent models of this process predict that large, well-connected populations will have more diverse and complex tool kits than small, isolated populations. While several examples of the loss of technology in small populations are consistent with this prediction, it found no support in two systematic quantitative tests. Both studies were based on data from continental populations in which contact rates were not available, and therefore these studies (...) do not provide a test of the models. Here, we show that in Oceania, around the time of early European contact, islands with small populations had less complicated marine foraging technology. This finding suggests that explanations of existing cultural variation based on optimality models alone are incomplete because demography plays an important role in generating cumulative cultural adaptation. It also indicates that hominin populations with similar cognitive abilities may leave very different archaeological records, a conclusion that has important implications for our understanding of the origin of anatomically modern humans and their evolved psychology. (shrink)

It is often claimed that reducing population size would be advantageous for climate change mitigation, on the grounds that lower population would naturally correspond to lower emissions. This apparently obvious claim is in fact seriously misleading. Reducing population size would indeed, other suitable things being equal, reduce the emissions rate. But it is well recognised that the primary determinant of the eventual amount of climate change is not the emissions rate, but rather cumulative emissions. It is far (...) less clear whether reducing population size would reduce cumulative emissions, or would in any other way prove an advantage for reasons related to climate change. This paper identifies and briefly discusses the issues relevant to assessing that less clear question. (shrink)

Overpopulation is often identified as one of the key drivers of climate change. Further, it is often thought that the mechanism behind this is obvious: 'more people means more greenhouse gas emissions'. However, in light of the fact that climate change depends most closely on cumulative emissions rather than on emissions rates, the relationship between population size and climate change is more subtle than this. Reducing the size of instantaneous populations can fruitfully be thought of as spreading out a (...) fixed number of people more thinly over time, and (in light of the significance of cumulative emissions) it is not immediately clear whether or how such a 'spreading' would help with climate change. To bring the point into sharp relief, I first set out a simple model according to which population reduction would not lead to any climate-change-related improvement. I then critically examine the assumptions of the model. If population reduction would lead to a significant climate-change-related improvement, this must be because (i) population reduction would significantly reduce even cumulative emissions, and/or (ii) climate damages are, to a significant extent, driven by the pace of climate change, and not only the eventual extent of the change. (shrink)

Our objective is to test an optimality model of human fertility that specifies the behavioral requirements for fitness maximization in order (a) to determine whether current behavior does maximize fitness and, if not, (b) to use the specific nature of the behavioral deviations from fitness maximization towards the development of models of evolved proximate mechanisms that may have maximized fitness in the past but lead to deviations under present conditions. To test the model we use data from a representative sample (...) of 7,107 men living in Albuquerque, New Mexico, between 1990 and 1993. The model we test proposes that low fertility in modern settings maximizes number of grandchildren as a result of a trade-off between parental fertility and next generation fertility. Results do not show the optimization, although the data do reveal a trade-off between parental fertility and offspring education and income.We propose that two characteristics of modern economies have led to a period of sustained fertility reduction and to a corresponding lack of association between income and fertility. The first is the direct link between costs of investment and wage rates due to the forces of supply and demand for labor in competitive economies. The second is the increasing emphasis on cumulative knowledge, skills, and technologies in the production of resources. Together they produce historically novel conditions. These two features of modern economies may interact with evolved psychological and physiological mechanisms governing fertility and parental investment to produce behavior that maximizes the economic productivity of lineages at the expense of fitness. If cognitive processes evolved to track diminishing returns to parental investment and if physiological processes evolved to regulate fertility in response to nutritional state and patterns of breast feeding, we might expect non-adaptive responses when returns from parental investment do not diminish until extremely high levels are reached. With high economic payoffs from parental investment, people have begun to exercise cognitive regulation of fertility through contraception and family planning practices. Those cognitive processes maynot have evolved to handle fitness trade-offs between fertility and parental investment. (shrink)

There are two possible realist defense strategies against the pessimistic meta-induction and Laudan’s meta-modus tollens: the selective strategy, claiming that discarded theories are partially true, and the discontinuity strategy, denying that pessimism about past theories can be extended to current ones. A radical version of discontinuity realism is proposed by Gerald Doppelt: rather than discriminating between true and false components within theories, he holds that superseded theories cannot be shown to be even partially true, while present best theories are demonstrably (...) completely true. I argue that this position, running counter both the cumulativity of science and fallibilism, is untenable; it cannot account for the success of past theories, nor for the failures of current theories, and rather than shutting the door to the pessimistic historical objections it opens it wide. The best strategy, instead, joins the selective idea there was both some truth and some falsity in discarded theories, like in current ones, with the moderate discontinuity idea that the truth rate in present best theories is much greater than in past ones. (shrink)

In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content:196 HISTORY OF PHILOSOPHY in 1943, was to write an Epilogue to Julian Marias' History o] Philosophy. In early 1944, the Epilogue was conceived as a volume of 400 pages, and later of 700. In 1945 a part of the Epilogue was to be detached and given the title The Origin ol Philosophy. Then one completed part of that was published in 1953 as an essay in a Festschrift (...) for Karl Jaspers. That, and other sections, have been put together here. The first part of the book treats philosophy as a cumulative enterprise in which each man rethinks and thinks further what other men have thought. Even when past thought has reached an end, or taken a direction we will not follow, it is only for the reason that it has already happened that we do not have to do it ourselves. This is not because history is rational but because thought is historical, rooted in ideas we did not ourselves create and based on methods we have acquired and sometimes altered. The second part of the book deals with the origin of philosophy--and the origin of "philosophy" for Ortega is concerned throughout with language and etymology. The word "philosophy" is not one Ortega likes; he prefers the word "aletheia," which was used by Parmenides and his contemporaries. In popular language, aletheia meant discovery, exposure, denudation, revelation. For the thinker, "aletheia" is "truth" as a verb, the activity of uncovering reality, which is concealed under the robes of appearance or falsehood. Philosophy, for Ortega, begins with Parmenides and Heraclitus; "proto-philosophers" he calls them. The Ionians had been scientists; their attempts at natural explanation upset religion and tradition, and prepared the way for philosophy. In a remarkably subtle and complex analysis for so short a space, Ortega argues that skepticism, atheism, wealth, and knowledge of nature created a freedom based on a need to create or choose one's own beliefs in a world in which relative abundance demands choice, since in poverty "an individual is never in the position of being able to choose; for choice assumes that the circle of one's possibilities is notably greater than that of one's needs" (p. 98). The social need to define the thinker and so grant him professional status that might minimize the hostility of the tradition-ridden and reactionary populace, especially in Athens, led to the name "sophist," which became disreputable to a hostile citizenry, and then to "philosopher." Socrates was, unfortunately, the only philosopher, the man who liked, had a taste for, or loved wisdom, but made no pretense that he had any, saying only he sought it. But the name persisted, and helped institutionalize the new profession. I haven't even intimated the delight of Ortega's incidental insights. He was probably justified in believing that his stature as a thinker was much greater than his reputation. A first-rate, full-scale study of Ortega in English would help, but what we need most is a collection and translation of his complete works. RSLPH ROSS ~cripps College Discourse on Thinking. By Martin Heidegger. Translated by John M. Anderson and E. Hans Freund. (New York: Harper and Row, 1966. Pp. 93. $3.50.) This is a translation of a speech and conversation originally published under the thematic title Gelassenheit (Pfullingen: Giinther Neske, 1959). Heidegger uses this unusual German word to remind us that there is another way of thinking than the calculative and dialectical modes made prominent by the mathematical sciences and modem cultural philosophy respectively. We have forgotten a less busy mode of thinking, a thinking released from all desire to control reality. Gelassenheit is rendered throughout as "releasement" in this translation. But Gelassenheit does not just mean letting go, or freedom from, as "releasement" may suggest. It also has the more positive sense of composure and a patient letting things be. In the context of Heidegger's attempts to define a mode of thinking not concerned with dominating reality, Gelassenheit comes to mean the freedom to be open to reality. BOOK REVIEWS 197 Heidegger stresses the ability to wait for insight, which is not, however, a mere passive waiting for something fixed. It would be... (shrink)

In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content:The Journal of Aesthetic Education 37.4 (2003) 50-58 [Access article in PDF] Evolution in Qualitative Factors Used to Evaluate Japanese Students [Tables] Introduction Two basic viewpoints are typically taken in the evaluation of achievement in Japanese schools: either the focus is primarily on "field-content-basedevaluation" or on "ability-concept-based evaluation." I have compared the qualitative factors encompassed by these two viewpoints as reflected in the permanent school records of Japanese students. (...) These recordsinclude classes taken, grades earned, and school-related information. Kanten (in Japanese) has become a key word in the evaluation of academic achievement in Japan. It represents the qualitative factors that should be considered when evaluating a student's learning achievements. In this essay, I review how these qualitative factors have evolved, both for general subjects and for fine arts.From the beginning of the educational system (1872) to 1938, the "assessment" [Hyoutei] of a student depended on the comprehensiveness of the student's achievement in each subject. (Overall assessments are now usually made using a three-point scale; 1-3, a five-point scale; 1-5, or an ABC scale.) However, it was not clearly specified how scholastic ability and learning accomplishment should be assessed or which qualitative factors should be considered.Starting in 1941, teachers were required to evaluate, comprehensively assess, and record the student's learning, consideration, dealing, application, skill, appreciation, practice, and learning attitude through his or her daily learning and activity. 1 The factors seem to be basically equivalent to those recently used as "interest/aspiration/attitude," "thinking," "judgment," [End Page 50] and "expressive power." After 1941, the point of view in the area of fine arts gradually changed from focusing on the "field-content-based factor" to the "ability-concept-based factor" in both the educational content and in evaluation.This report focuses on the evolution in the qualitative factors used in evaluations in the postwar era. From 1949 to 1991 "Understanding," "attitude," and "skill" were specified as factors that shouldbe considered when evaluating a student's learning achievements in 1949. For a few years, these factors were considered independently in the non-referenced evaluation of five-point ratings. The two basic viewpoints, "field-content-based factor" and "ability-concept-based factor," coexisted in the course of study in the early 1950s, according to a tentative plan published in 1951. "Attitude" and "habits" carried the same weight as "understanding" and "skill." These factors received minimal attention at the elementary school level. Evaluations thus evolved from simply an overall assessment of the student's achievement in a subject to an assessment of these specific factors. For instance, at the elementary school level, drawing and handicrafts both had factors related to "field content difference" (for example, drawing, color, and pattern) and to "ability concept difference" (for example, attitude and habit). At the junior high level, the factors were represented by a double-layer structure (Table 1). The elements underlined in Table 1 reflect on the "ability concept difference" (for example, expression activities and understanding activities) instead on the "field content difference." Following the revision of the permanent cumulative records in 1955, students were evaluated based only on an overall assessment of their individual [End Page 51] performance in each subject (Japanese language, mathematics, social studies, music, and drawing and handicrafts). There were three main reasons for this change.The effort it takes to evaluate each factor analytically. The difficulty of evaluating "attitude." The demand by schools at the next level for a comprehensive and uniform evaluation for each student for each subject. 3Furthermore, although "interest" was added as one of factors to be considered in the evaluation, it was not to be dealt with analytically in the evaluation of what the student learned. Consequently, evaluations became clearer and more comprehensive, although the weights of the factors, referred to as the "affective domain," took a step backward. In 1961, the factor "interest/attitude toward fine arts" was added. At the same time, "interest" was given more weight. However, the higher weighting of the factor was short-lived because intangible factors such as... (shrink)

In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content:The Journal of Aesthetic Education 37.4 (2003) 50-58 [Access article in PDF] Evolution in Qualitative Factors Used to Evaluate Japanese Students [Tables] Introduction Two basic viewpoints are typically taken in the evaluation of achievement in Japanese schools: either the focus is primarily on "field-content-basedevaluation" or on "ability-concept-based evaluation." I have compared the qualitative factors encompassed by these two viewpoints as reflected in the permanent school records of Japanese students. (...) These recordsinclude classes taken, grades earned, and school-related information. Kanten (in Japanese) has become a key word in the evaluation of academic achievement in Japan. It represents the qualitative factors that should be considered when evaluating a student's learning achievements. In this essay, I review how these qualitative factors have evolved, both for general subjects and for fine arts.From the beginning of the educational system (1872) to 1938, the "assessment" [Hyoutei] of a student depended on the comprehensiveness of the student's achievement in each subject. (Overall assessments are now usually made using a three-point scale; 1-3, a five-point scale; 1-5, or an ABC scale.) However, it was not clearly specified how scholastic ability and learning accomplishment should be assessed or which qualitative factors should be considered.Starting in 1941, teachers were required to evaluate, comprehensively assess, and record the student's learning, consideration, dealing, application, skill, appreciation, practice, and learning attitude through his or her daily learning and activity. 1 The factors seem to be basically equivalent to those recently used as "interest/aspiration/attitude," "thinking," "judgment," [End Page 50] and "expressive power." After 1941, the point of view in the area of fine arts gradually changed from focusing on the "field-content-based factor" to the "ability-concept-based factor" in both the educational content and in evaluation.This report focuses on the evolution in the qualitative factors used in evaluations in the postwar era. From 1949 to 1991 "Understanding," "attitude," and "skill" were specified as factors that shouldbe considered when evaluating a student's learning achievements in 1949. For a few years, these factors were considered independently in the non-referenced evaluation of five-point ratings. The two basic viewpoints, "field-content-based factor" and "ability-concept-based factor," coexisted in the course of study in the early 1950s, according to a tentative plan published in 1951. "Attitude" and "habits" carried the same weight as "understanding" and "skill." These factors received minimal attention at the elementary school level. Evaluations thus evolved from simply an overall assessment of the student's achievement in a subject to an assessment of these specific factors. For instance, at the elementary school level, drawing and handicrafts both had factors related to "field content difference" (for example, drawing, color, and pattern) and to "ability concept difference" (for example, attitude and habit). At the junior high level, the factors were represented by a double-layer structure (Table 1). The elements underlined in Table 1 reflect on the "ability concept difference" (for example, expression activities and understanding activities) instead on the "field content difference." Following the revision of the permanent cumulative records in 1955, students were evaluated based only on an overall assessment of their individual [End Page 51] performance in each subject (Japanese language, mathematics, social studies, music, and drawing and handicrafts). There were three main reasons for this change.The effort it takes to evaluate each factor analytically. The difficulty of evaluating "attitude." The demand by schools at the next level for a comprehensive and uniform evaluation for each student for each subject. 3Furthermore, although "interest" was added as one of factors to be considered in the evaluation, it was not to be dealt with analytically in the evaluation of what the student learned. Consequently, evaluations became clearer and more comprehensive, although the weights of the factors, referred to as the "affective domain," took a step backward. In 1961, the factor "interest/attitude toward fine arts" was added. At the same time, "interest" was given more weight. However, the higher weighting of the factor was short-lived because intangible factors such as... (shrink)

BackgroundThere are limited sensitive evaluation methods to distinguish people’s symptoms of peripheral fatigue and central fatigue simultaneously. The purpose of this study is to identify and evaluate them after acute exercise with a simple and practical scale.MethodsThe initial scale was built through a literature review, experts and athlete population survey, and a small sample pre-survey. Randomly selected 1,506 students were evaluated with the initial scale after exercise. Subjective fatigue self-assessments were completed at the same time.ResultsThe Acute Exercise-Induced Fatigue Scale was (...) determined after performing a factor analysis. In the exploratory factor analysis, the cumulative variance contribution rate was 65.464%. The factor loadings of the total 8 questions were 0.661–0.816. In the confirmatory factor analysis, χ2/df = 2.529, GFI = 0.985, AGFI = 0.967, NFI = 0.982, IFI = 0.989, CFI = 0.989, and RMSEA = 0.048. The Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for the scale was 0.872, and it was 0.833 for peripheral fatigue and 0.818 for central fatigue. The intra-class correlation coefficient for the scale was 0.536, and the intra-class correlation coefficients for peripheral fatigue and central fatigue were 0.421 and 0.548, respectively. The correlation coefficient between the total score of the AEIFS and the SFSA score was 0.592.ConclusionOur results demonstrate that the AEIFS can distinguish peripheral fatigue and central fatigue and can also reflect their correlation. This scale can be a useful evaluation tool not only for measuring fatigue after acute exercise but also for guiding reasonable exercise, choosing objective testing indicators, and preventing sports injuries resulting from acute exercise-induced fatigue. (shrink)

This study reviews the existing literature on psychiatric interventions for individuals affected by the COVID-19 epidemic. My article cumulates previous research on how extreme stressors associated with COVID-19 may aggravate or cause psychiatric problems. The unpredictability of the COVID-19 epidemic progression may result in significant psychological pressure on vulnerable populations. Persons with psychiatric illnesses may experience worsening symptoms or may develop an altered mental state related to an increased suicide risk. The inspected findings prove that psychological intervention measures for patients (...) affected by the epidemic should be designed and personalized adequately. Preventive measures seek to decrease infection rates and cut down the risk of the public healthcare system to eventually be overburdened. Throughout the COVID-19 crisis, people with psychiatric illnesses may confront a decrease in mental health services. As limitations in the current review, by focusing only on articles published in journals indexed in Web of Science, Scopus, and ProQuest, I inevitably disregarded other valuable sources. Subsequent research directions should clarify the effectiveness of online mental health services in providing remote psychiatric interventions to individuals affected by the COVID-19 epidemic. (shrink)

This paper uses a computational framework to analyse the equilibrium dynamics of exploitation and inequality in accumulation economies with heterogeneous labour. A novel index is presented which measures the intensity of exploitation at the individual level and the dynamics of the distribution of exploitation intensity is analysed. Various taxation schemes are analysed which may reduce exploitation or inequalities in income and wealth. It is shown that relatively small taxation rates may have significant cumulative effects on wealth and income inequalities. (...) Further, taxation schemes that eliminate exploitation also reduce disparities in income and wealth but in the presence of heterogeneous skills, do not necessarily eliminate them. The inegalitarian effects of different abilities need to be tackled with a progressive education policy that compensates for unfavourable circumstances. (shrink)

In 21 CE, a series of localized movements broke out in Gallia Comata due to heavy debts among provincials according to Tacitus. Modern scholars have long argued that the indebtedness occurred because of rising interest rates, resulting from dwindling currency in circulation after decades of free-spending following Augustus’ victory at Actium, and that Gallic communities were subjected to an additional tribute to support the wars of Germanicus (14–16 CE), which continued unabated after the wars and pushed Gauls beyond their means. (...) These claims are misguided, however, in that there is no certain evidence of a special tax to support Germanicus’ wars and that the argument for a dwindling circulation of currency in Gaul falters under closer inspection. Rather, the pressing statal and military needs imposed on communities in Gallia Comata after 9 CE on top of routine exactions could significantly increase burden levels levied on provincial populations, thus contributing to rising debts. Through examining how Roman logistics and conscription operated in this period, it is possible to trace how populations were impacted by such demands and which communities were most heavily affected by them, too. Individually, the impact of each factor is unlikely to have been burdensome enough to have caused large-scale resistance, it is only the cumulative effect that these explanations had on top of routine Roman extraction schemes that could create the conditions for this revolt. This paper argues that in extraordinary circumstances, such as the period after the Varian Disaster for Gallia Comata, the costs of supporting military campaigns places real short-term strains on local economies, which creates the conditions for revolt. The benefit of this approach is that it may explain other episodes of anti-fiscal resistance that broke out during or within a decade of wars in neighboring regions. (shrink)

In this work, we study and analyze the aggregate death counts of COVID-19 reported by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for the fifty states in the United States. To do this, we derive a stochastic model describing the cumulative number of deaths reported daily by CDC from the first time Covid-19 death is recorded to June 20, 2021 in the United States, and provide a forecast for the death cases. The stochastic model derived in (...) this work performs better than existing deterministic logistic models because it is able to capture irregularities in the sample path of the aggregate death counts. The probability distribution of the aggregate death counts is derived, analyzed, and used to estimate the count’s per capita initial growth rate, carrying capacity, and the expected value for each given day as at the time this research is conducted. Using this distribution, we estimate the expected first passage time when the aggregate death count is slowing down. Our result shows that the expected aggregate death count is slowing down in all states as at the time this analysis is conducted (June 2021). A formula for predicting the end of Covid-19 deaths is derived. The daily expected death count for each states is plotted as a function of time. The probability density function for the current day, together with the forecast and its confidence interval for the next four days, and the root mean square error for our simulation results are estimated. (shrink)

We review studies of an evolution operator ℒ for a discrete Langevin equation with a strongly hyperbolic classical dynamics and a Gaussian noise. The leading eigenvalue of ℒ yields a physically measurable property of the dynamical system, the escape rate from the repeller. The spectrum of the evolution operator ℒ in the weak noise limit can be computed in several ways. A method using a local matrix representation of the operator allows to push the corrections to the escape (...) class='Hi'>rate up to order eight in the noise expansion parameter. These corrections then appear to form a divergent series. Actually, via a cumulant expansion, they relate to analogous divergent series for other quantities, the traces of the evolution operators ℒn. Using an integral representation of the evolution operator ℒ, we then investigate the high order corrections to the latter traces. Their asymptotic behavior is found to be controlled by sub-dominant saddle points previously neglected in the perturbative expansion, and to be ultimately described by a kind of trace formula. (shrink)

The body of measures promulgated to deal with the emergency of the depression is frequently linked up with the idea of a planned economy. That emergency measures have little or no essential connection with planning is the central thesis of this essay.The author discusses the four most important premises of the emergency measures : the intensity of the depression, the degree of organization reached by the country in depression, its social stratification, and its political set-up. Two emergency methods are distinguished. (...) On the one hand, an attempt is made to set the price mechanism in operation by lowering production costs, principally wages but also interest rates, rents, etc. The same adaption is aimed at by measures of state intervention which try to boost prices particularly by restriction of production and of imports. The second method, which has been used in an unprecedented manner during the present depression, attempts to stop the cumulative deflationary process by credit and monetary measures, as well as by public works.The effects of the emergency measures in some of the more important countries are discussed briefly. The author believes that a major part of these measures was necessitated by the course of events, but that their effect will be conflicting and of only short duration.Le but du travail est d'indiquer les idées les plus importantes pour comprendre et juger la politique de crise et de montrer qu'il ne saurait être question de considérer aucune des mesures prises comme un véritable plan. Par politique de crise, on entend les mesures destinées à atténuer ou surmonter une crise économique existante, par opposition à une „politique de conjoncture“ qui tend à une économie sans crise.L'auteur analyse les quatre prémisses fondamentales d'une politique de crise : profondeur de la dépression, degré d'organisation économique, structure sociale et organisation politique du pays atteint par la crise. On distingue deux méthodes employées pour combattre la crise. La politique d'adaptation, sous sa forme libérale, cherche à renforcer l'automatisme du marché, en diminuant les frais de production, etc. Les procédés d'intervention, dans la politique d'adaptation, ont pour objet l'augmentation des prix, avant tout à l'aide de restrictions de production et d'importation. La deuxième méthode, appliquée dans la crise actuelle avec une ampleur jamais encore connue, tâche d'arrêter le processus de déflation par des mouvements contraires. Les moyens principaux sont des mesures qui concernent le crédit et la monnaie, et des travaux publics. L'action d'ensemble de la politique de crise dans quelques pays importants est rapidement étudiée, à la fin de l'article. Encore que l'auteur considère une grande partie des mesures prises contre la crise comme inévitables, il tient leur action pour contradictoire et à courte échéance. (shrink)

Intergenerational impartiality requires putting the welfare of future generations at par with that of our own. However, rational choice requires weighting all welfare values by the respective probabilities of realization. As the risk of non-survival of mankind is strictly positive for all time periods and as the probability of non-survival is cumulative, the probability weights operate like discount factors, though justified on a morally justifiable and completely different ground. Impartial intertemporal welfare maximization is acceptable, though the welfare of people (...) in the very far future has lower effects as the probabilities of their existence are also lower. However, the effective discount rate on future welfare values justified on this ground is likely to be less than 0.1 per annum. Such discounting does not compromise environmental protection and sustainability unduly. The finiteness of our universe implies that the sum of our expected welfare to infinity remains finite, solving the paradox of having to compare different infinite values in optimal growth/conservation theories. (shrink)

Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease at the beginning of December 2019, there have been more than 28.69 million cumulative confirmed cases worldwide as of 12th September 2020, affecting over 200 countries and regions with more than 920,463 deaths. The COVID-19 pandemic has been sweeping worldwide with unexpected rapidity. In this paper, a hybrid modelling strategy based on tessellation structure- configured SEIR model is adopted to estimate the scale of the pandemic spread. Building on the data pertaining (...) to the global pandemic transmission over the last six months around the world, key impact factors in the transmission and control procedure have been analysed, including isolation rate, number of the infected cases before taking prevention measures, degree of contact scope, and medical level, so as to capture the fundamental factor influencing the pandemic. The quantitative evaluation allowed us to illustrate the magnitude of risks of pandemic and to recommend appropriate national health policy of prevention measures for effectively controlling both intra- and interregional pandemic spread. Our modelling results clearly indicate that the early-stage preventive measures are the most effective action to be taken to contain the pandemic spread of the highly contagious nature of the COVID-19. (shrink)

In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content:Economy as a Victimizing Mechanism Erich Kitzmüller Universität Wien and Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien 1. The Enigma of Modern Economics The effects of the present economic system are remarkably ambiguous. When we compare modern society with any preceding society in history it becomes evident that the ability to produce wealth is its distinguishing feature. It also is evident that the most highly productive and technologically advanced societies of the world are (...) at the root of grave social and ecological disturbances that are pushing humankind to the edge of global catastrophe. The scope and complexity of the adverse effects and risks, of the degradation to the natural surroundings and to social cohesion, are unprecedented in history. Although those phenomena are well known, they are not widely understood. The positive effects of modern economics are evident. The outstanding capacity to produce a vast array of technical instruments and rational organizations which serve as problem solving tools have opened the way to a level ofprosperity, and indeed of affluence, that is unparalleled in the history of civilization. In sharp contrast to this story of success is, however, the equally impressive record ofdestruction. The gulf between those who possess vast material means and those who possess the minimum for survival is widening both on a global scale and within individual affluent societies. The relation between increased productivity and ecological destruction seems to parallel that between growing wealth and growing human misery. The high rate of exploitation of natural resources and the artificial changes in climate are endangering the viability of future generations to the extent that the extinction of species and cultures is, finally, not a vague, futuristic threat, but a clear and present danger to life as we know it. The economic performance of the prosperous nations today, and of modern society in general, invokes a number of critical issues that need to be 1 8 Erich Kitzmüller addressed. Why have the developed nations been so successful in achieving their high productivity through the efficient utilization of systems of organization and participation? Why have those particular success-making qualities enabled them to dominate in such a global and universal way, while their competitors retreat into an increasingly marginal economic existence? Why does the paradox exist between the global richness and success of certain societies and the destructive nature of their output? The logical cumulative question is, then, Why is the current economic system both extraordinarily productive and destructive? Paramount efficiency in the production of wealth and success Never before has society been so efficient in accumulating wealth. This is the most striking feature of the upper financial strata of humanity, of, for example, the OCED countries. Whatever factor can be singled out, the formula remains the same: high levels of input of energy and other resources, and high output in terms of tools for production and consumer goods. For decades the general trend of income, savings, investments, and consumer expenditures, whatever their fluctuations, has been upward. In spite of the grievances and alleged cases of injustice, ever growing prosperity and affluence has become the normal expected result of the economic process. Wealth is produced not only in terms of achieved output, but also in terms of the capacity to tackle any difficulties through an expansion of the economic process. This may be the most important feature of present economic performance, even more important than its excellence in increasing the output of goods and services. Wealth is accumulated, moreover, not only in terms of material goods and services, but in terms of the options we have in reacting to the reality of needs and scarcities. The real products themselves become enhanced options that specify particular means to improve technologies and to apply rational solutions to troublesome situations and, thus, to identify those situations as problems and to solve them. In the context of modem society, wealth is essentially the twofold process of the means for domination on the part of both states and companies, and of ever growing liberties. The premise is to win access to exemplary, that is to successful and happy, life styles. AU the while the focus of attraction may shift from power to the anticipated pleasure of consumption... (shrink)

When I was a 7 months pregnant medical student, an attending surgeon asked me to which specialty I would be applying. When I replied that I was hoping to match in general surgery, he touched my pregnant abdomen and said, “Not with that you’re not.” I am not alone. Gender bias and discrimination have been shown to negatively impact women surgeons throughout their careers and deter women from even applying in surgical fields.1 Bias against female surgical trainees leads to less (...) operative autonomy and higher dropout rates.2 3 Once faculty, women surgeons are less likely to reach leadership roles.4 Recent studies confirm the author’s assertion that implicit biases create substantial harm. The author has undertaken an important study, conducting in-depth interviews with 46 women surgeons in Australia that identifies four distinct types of bias causing cumulative harm. In all four types of biases: Workplace factors including leave policies and mentorship. Epistemic injustices, or unfair assessments of women surgeons’ credibility by patients and colleagues. Stereotyped expectations. Objectification, implicit biases were seen. While many of the broad factors impeding women in surgery are well known, the author argues that these subtler factors, including both implicit bias and epistemic injustice, have a large impact. The …. (shrink)

In late 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic began to spread over the world, causing millions of deaths. In the first few months of the pandemic, several countries prevented the spread of the pandemic successfully. By contrast, the pandemic in many other countries was not controlled well. For example, India encountered a second serious outbreak of COVID-19 from April 2021 due to the poor resistance measures implemented by the government. To figure out the effective countermeasures to the pandemic, this research proposes a (...) COVID-19 pandemic and its response system, which consists of the infection subsystem, the quarantine subsystem, and the medical subsystem. On this basis, an improved SEIR-SD model is established which is utilized to analyze the response measures to the pandemic quantitatively. This model successfully simulates the actual epidemic scenarios in Wuhan, which verifies its effectiveness. Afterward, the impact of hospital administration rate, quarantine rate, average contact number, and contact infection rate on the cumulative number of infections and deaths are analyzed by simulation. The results show that both the medical and administrative efforts, especially in the early stage of the epidemic, are significant in reducing the number of infections and shortening the epidemic period. In the medical aspect, the more stringent quarantine brings the earlier inflection point of the epidemic; more importantly, improving the treatment rate significantly reduces the scale of the epidemic. In the administrative aspect, enforcing individual protection and strict community closure can effectively cut off the transmission of the virus and curb the spread of the epidemic. Finally, this research proposes several practical suggestions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The main contribution of this research is that the effects of different response measures on the number of new infections daily and the cumulative number of deaths of a country or region in the COVID-19 pandemic are estimated quantitatively based on modeling and simulation. (shrink)

A modest dc electric field markedly reduced the tensile flow stress at high temperatures in three polycrystalline oxides, i.e. MgO, Al2O3 and yttria-stabilized tetragonal ZrO2 (Y-TZP). The reduction in flow stress ΔσE in Y-TZP consisted of three components: (i) ΔσT due to Joule heating, (ii) a rapid, reversible component obtained in on-off and electric field step tests and (iii) the cumulative effect of the field on microstructure. Only ΔσT and occurred in MgO and Al2O3. It is concluded that results (...) from a reduction in the electrochemical potential for the formation of vacancies corresponding to the diffusion of the rate-controlling ion in the space-charge at the grain boundary. The calculated magnitude of the space-charge zone width and its temperature and solute composition dependence are in accord with theory and experiment; is attributed mainly to the retardation of grain growth by the field. The retardation could be due to one or more of the following effects of the field on the space-charge zone: (i) an increase in the segregated solute ions, (ii) a decrease in grain boundary energy and (iii) a decrease in solute ion mobility. (shrink)

This paper is concerned with the formulation and analysis of an epidemic model of COVID-19 governed by an eight-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations, by taking into account the first dose and the second dose of vaccinated individuals in the population. The developed model is analyzed and the threshold quantity known as the control reproduction number R0\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\mathcal {R}_{0}$$\end{document} is obtained. We investigate the equilibrium stability of the system, and the COVID-free equilibrium (...) is said to be locally asymptotically stable when the control reproduction number is less than unity, and unstable otherwise. Using the least-squares method, the model is calibrated based on the cumulative number of COVID-19 reported cases and available information about the mass vaccine administration in Malaysia between the 24th of February 2021 and February 2022. Following the model fitting and estimation of the parameter values, a global sensitivity analysis was performed by using the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) to determine the most influential parameters on the threshold quantities. The result shows that the effective transmission rate (α)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(\alpha )$$\end{document}, the rate of first vaccine dose (ϕ)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(\phi )$$\end{document}, the second dose vaccination rate (σ)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(\sigma )$$\end{document} and the recovery rate due to the second dose of vaccination (η)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(\eta )$$\end{document} are the most influential of all the model parameters. We further investigate the impact of these parameters by performing a numerical simulation on the developed COVID-19 model. The result of the study shows that adhering to the preventive measures has a huge impact on reducing the spread of the disease in the population. Particularly, an increase in both the first and second dose vaccination rates reduces the number of infected individuals, thus reducing the disease burden in the population. (shrink)

AimIn case of extremely rare diseases, case reports are often the only experience to draw from for evidence-based management. Carmi syndrome is a rare, mostly lethal combination of junctional epidermolysis bullosa and pyloric atresia. During an ethical board, there were differences in perception of mortality rate. We tested the hypothesis that the cumulative mortality of single case reports is lower than that of multiple case series.CaseA baby girl was born at 33 weeks gestation with Carmi syndrome. The treatment (...) options discussed in an interdisciplinary ethics board were a palliative approach versus surgical gastrojejunostomy. Because about one third of operated children described in case reports survived, we opted for surgical treatment. The patient died a painful death 4 weeks later.MethodsThe PubMed database was systematically searched for reports of Carmi syndrome. Single case reports were compared to case series in terms of outcome.ResultsA total of 102 cases of Carmi syndrome were identified in the literature. Mortality of single case reports was 17 out of 27 patients (63%), while that of case series was higher at 62 out of 74 patients (84%,p = 0.036).ConclusionsSelection and publication bias may lead to inflation of survival rates in single case reports because successful cases are more likely to be published in the literature. These biases may lead to inappropriately aggressive treatment in futile cases. Clinicians should be cautious when discussing prognosis and making decisions based on the cumulative experience of case reports of extremely rare or novel diseases. (shrink)

Depuis 2001, MédiaCabSat est l'outil spécifique de la mesure d'audience des chaînes diffusées par câble et satellite, mis en place par Médiamétrie pour répondre à l'enjeu de la multiplication des chaînes thématiques. L'audimétrie, qui permet l'enregistrement de l'écoute sur l'année entière, avec identification automatique des chaînes, a été adoptée. À l'origine, le panel est constitué de 830 foyers, dont les 480 foyers du panel Médiamat qui reçoivent l'offre élargie. L'échantillon, qui doit être représentatif des différentes offres élargies reçues, a été (...) construit à partir d'une enquête nationale de cadrage . Pour assurer une fiabilité statistique satisfaisante, malgré la faiblesse de l'échantillon et le grand nombre de chaînes suivies , le choix a été fait de fournir des résultats cumulés sur six mois. Les principales caractéristiques de la population disposant d'une offre élargie sont maintenant connues avec précision.In 2001 the “Médiamétrie” organization introduced the “MédiaCabSat” tool specifically to obtain audience ratings for cable and satellite channels as a response to the important demands represented by the growing number of theme-based channels. TV metering was introduced which records viewing habits and figures for the whole year, with an automatic identification of the channels watched. At first, the panel was made up of 830 homes including the 480 homes of the Mediamat panel which receive the larger choice of channels. The sample audience has to be representative of the various channel packages on offer and was defined using a national audience survey study involving over 75 000 respondents. To ensure statistic reliability even though the sample audience was relatively small and a large number of channels were covered by the survey , the choice was made to produce cumulated results over a six-month period. Now the main characteristics of the This has facilitated the obtention of precise information on the characteristics of the audience receiving the larger channel packages. (shrink)

Introduction. Developing human potential, improving the population’s life quality of the regions are the unconditional priorities of the regional socio-economic policy. The implementation of such priorities requires an objective assessment of the existing socio-economic situation of the Russian Federation’s constituent entities, an analysis of the conditions for regional development, a search for economic growth drivers, and the development of effective mechanisms for implementing priorities. The designated issues are in the area of scientists’ and specialists’ close attention, whose range of scientific (...) research and applied practices is constantly replenished. In this regard, the article expands the understanding of the complexity of the regions’ socio-economic and technological development, and various aspects of the processes of regional development are considered on the basis of the proposed model, the essence of which is represented by the triad “conditions-factors-results”. Within the framework of the proposed triad, «conditions» were determined by the socio-economic situation of the region, scientific, technological and digital «factors» were considered as drivers of development; and “results” were investigated through social parameters that reflect the level of human development. Taking into account the importance of achieving social results in the framework of technological development, studies aimed at studying the interdependence of the processes of technological transformation and human development seem to be very timely and relevant. Purpose. Reveal the mutual influence of the scientific and technical potential and the level of digitalization of the territory, as factors of socio-economic development, on the human potential of the region. Methods. For the study, a statistical analysis was used based on data from Rosstat, Moscow School of Management Skolkovo, RIA Rating; correlation analysis; methods of comparative analysis, rating, grouping and positioning of regions. The scientific novelty of the research consists in the developed model of regional development, the content of which is described by the triad “conditions-factorsresults”. The conditions of regional development are considered as opportunities to achieve the set goal, factors - as catalysts for technological development of territories, results - as an increase in human potential. At the same time, the model has reproductive characteristics, since it provides for direct and feedback connections, namely: the achieved «results» affect and change the «conditions» that form the updated «factors», which in turn generate new «results». The resulting cumulative effect of the technological development of the regions is converted into the strengthening and development of human potential. Results and Conclusions. The authors conducted a study on the influence of integral indicators of the socioeconomic situation of regions, the level of scientific and technical potential and digitalization on the human development index of the regions of the Ural and Siberian federal districts. The comparison of the regions was carried out both separately for each federal district and jointly for all regions of the two districts. The grouping and positioning of regions in the study of the triad «conditions-factors-results» made it possible to identify the strongest regions where a favorable socio-economic situation, high digital and scientific and technical potential contribute to the development of human potential. In contrast, less prosperous regions (from the standpoint of conditions and factors of technological development) are not capable of a technological breakthrough and are limited in their impact on human potential. The unevenness of digital development and the scientific and technical potential of the regions was established, and the leading regions and outsider regions characterized by unequal opportunities for technological development were identified. The positioning of the regions made it possible to identify groups for which measures are needed to expand opportunities for technological development. The influence of the level of digitalization and scientific and technical potential on the human development index was established, which made it possible to identify regions, one of which is advisable to be included in interregional interaction (partnerships) to enhance the use of their specific capabilities, while others - to overcome the lag in the studied areas of development. (shrink)

Intergenerational impartiality requires putting the welfare of future generations at par with that of our own. However, rational choice requires weighting all welfare values by the respective probabilities of realization. As the risk of non-survival of mankind is strictly positive for all time periods and as the probability of non-survival is cumulative, the probability weights operate like discount factors, though justified on a morally justifiable and completely different ground. Impartial intertemporal welfare maximization is acceptable, though the welfare of people (...) in the very far future has lower effects as the probabilities of their existence are also lower. However, the effective discount rate on future welfare values (distinct from monetary values) justified on this ground is likely to be less than 0.1 per annum. Such discounting does not compromise environmental protection and sustainability unduly. The finiteness of our universe implies that the sum of our expected welfare to infinity remains finite, solving the paradox of having to compare different infinite values in optimal growth/conservation theories. (shrink)