Results for 'Perfect Bayesian equilibrium'

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  1.  11
    Optimal equilibrium contracts in the infinite horizon with no commitment across periods.Subir K. Chakrabarti & Jaesoo Kim - 2022 - Theory and Decision 94 (3):379-404.
    The paper studies equilibrium contracts under adverse selection when there is repeated interaction between a principal and an agent over an infinite horizon, without commitment across periods. We show the second-best contract is offered in a perfect Bayesian equilibrium of the infinite horizon model. Unlike the equilibrium contracts in the finite-horizon, the equilibrium contracts in the infinite horizon are not subject to either the ratchet effect or take-the-money-and-run strategy, but rely on a carrot and (...)
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  2. Gaming Prediction Markets: Equilibrium Strategies with a Market Maker.Yiling Chen, Rahul Sami & Daniel M. Reeves - unknown
    We study the equilibrium behavior of informed traders interacting with market scoring rule (MSR) market makers. One attractive feature of MSR is that it is myopically incentive compatible: it is optimal for traders to report their true beliefs about the likelihood of an event outcome provided that they ignore the impact of their reports on the profit they might garner from future trades. In this paper, we analyze non-myopic strategies and examine what information structures lead to truthful betting by (...)
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  3.  43
    Uncertainty and the role of the pawn in extended deterrence.D. M. Kilgour & F. C. Zagare - 1994 - Synthese 100 (3):379 - 412.
    This paper develops an incomplete information model of extended deterrence relationships. It postulates players who are fully informed about the costs of war and all other relevant variables, save for the values their opponents place on the issues at stake, i.e., the pawn. We provide consistent and intuitively satisfying parallel definitions for two types of players, Hard and Soft, in terms of the parameters of our model. We also answer several particular questions about the strategy choices of players in an (...)
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  4.  64
    AGM Belief Revision in Dynamic Games.Giacomo Bonanno - 2011 - In Krzysztof Apt (ed.), Proceedings of the 13th Conference on Theoretical Aspects of Rationality and Knowledge (TARK XIII).
    Within the context of extensive-form (or dynamic) games, we use choice frames to represent the initial beliefs of a player as well as her disposition to change those beliefs when she learns that an information set of hers has been reached. As shown in [5], in order for the revision operation to be consistent with the AGM postulates [1], the player’s choice frame must be rationalizable in terms of a total pre-order on the set of histories. We consider four properties (...)
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  5. Intentional time inconsistency.Agah R. Turan - 2019 - Theory and Decision 86 (1):41-64.
    We propose a theoretical model to explain the usage of time-inconsistent behavior as a strategy to exploit others when reputation and trust have secondary effects on the economic outcome. We consider two agents with time-consistent preferences exploiting common resources. Supposing that an agent is believed to have time-inconsistent preferences with probability p, we analyze whether she uses this misinformation when she has the opportunity to use it. Using the model originally provided by Levhari and Mirman (Bell J Econ 11(1):322–334, 1980), (...)
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  6. Game Theory.Giacomo Bonanno - 2018 - North Charleston, SC, USA: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform.
    This is a two-volume set that provides an introduction to non-cooperative Game Theory. Volume 1 covers the basic concepts, while Volume 2 is devoted to advanced topics. The book is richly illustrated with approximately 400 figures. It is suitable for both self-study and as the basis for an undergraduate course in game theory as well as a first-year graduate-level class. It is written to be accessible to anybody with high-school level knowledge of mathematics. At the end of each chapter there (...)
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  7.  36
    Prediction, Bayesian Deliberation and Correlated Equilibrium.Isaac Levi - 1998 - Vienna Circle Institute Yearbook 5:173-185.
    In a pair of controversy provoking papers1, Kadane and Larkey argued that the normative or prescriptive understanding of expected utility theory recommended that participants in a game maximize expected utility given their assessments of the probabilities of the moves that other players would make. They observed that no prescription, norm or standard of Bayesian rationality recommends how they should come to make probability judgments about the choices of other players. For any given player, it is an empirical question as (...)
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  8. Genuine Bayesian Multiallelic Significance Test for the Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium Law.Julio Michael Stern, Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira, Fabio Nakano & Martin Ritter Whittle - 2006 - Genetics and Molecular Research 5 (4):619-631.
    Statistical tests that detect and measure deviation from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) have been devised but are limited when testing for deviation at multiallelic DNA loci is attempted. Here we present the full Bayesian significance test (FBST) for the HWE. This test depends neither on asymptotic results nor on the number of possible alleles for the particular locus being evaluated. The FBST is based on the computation of an evidence index in favor of the HWE hypothesis. A great (...)
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  9.  22
    Subgame Perfect Equilibrium in the Rubinstein Bargaining Game with Loss Aversion.Zhongwei Feng & Chunqiao Tan - 2019 - Complexity 2019:1-23.
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  10.  56
    The punctuated equilibrium of scientific change: a Bayesian network model.Patrick Grim, Frank Seidl, Calum McNamara, Isabell N. Astor & Caroline Diaso - 2022 - Synthese 200 (4):1-25.
    Our scientific theories, like our cognitive structures in general, consist of propositions linked by evidential, explanatory, probabilistic, and logical connections. Those theoretical webs ‘impinge on the world at their edges,’ subject to a continuing barrage of incoming evidence. Our credences in the various elements of those structures change in response to that continuing barrage of evidence, as do the perceived connections between them. Here we model scientific theories as Bayesian nets, with credences at nodes and conditional links between them (...)
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  11.  22
    The Hypothesis of Nash Equilibrium and Its Bayesian Justification.Paul Weirich - 1994 - In Dag Prawitz & Dag Westerståhl (eds.), Logic and Philosophy of Science in Uppsala. Kluwer Academic Publishers. pp. 245--264.
    How does Bayesian reasoning support participation in a game's Nash equilibrium? This paper provides an answer.
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  12. Reexamination of the Perfectness Concept for Equilibrium Points in Extensive Games.Reinhard Selten - 1975 - International Journal of Game Theory 4:25-55.
     
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  13.  72
    On Stalnaker's Notion of Strong Rationalizability and Nash Equilibrium in Perfect Information Games.Giacomo Bonanno & Klaus Nehring - 1998 - Theory and Decision 45 (3):291-295.
    Counterexamples to two results by Stalnaker (Theory and Decision, 1994) are given and a corrected version of one of the two results is proved. Stalnaker's proposed results are: (1) if at the true state of an epistemic model of a perfect information game there is common belief in the rationality of every player and common belief that no player has false beliefs (he calls this joint condition ‘strong rationalizability’), then the true (or actual) strategy profile is path equivalent to (...)
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  14.  30
    Simulation Research on Safe Flow Rate of Bidirectional Crowds Using Bayesian-Nash Equilibrium.Can Liao, Kejun Zhu, Haixiang Guo & Jian Tang - 2019 - Complexity 2019:1-15.
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  15. Bayesian Variations: Essays on the Structure, Object, and Dynamics of Credence.Aron Vallinder - 2018 - Dissertation, London School of Economics
    According to the traditional Bayesian view of credence, its structure is that of precise probability, its objects are descriptive propositions about the empirical world, and its dynamics are given by conditionalization. Each of the three essays that make up this thesis deals with a different variation on this traditional picture. The first variation replaces precise probability with sets of probabilities. The resulting imprecise Bayesianism is sometimes motivated on the grounds that our beliefs should not be more precise than the (...)
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  16.  87
    Correlated Equilibrium in Games with Incomplete Information Revisited.Françoise Forges - 2006 - Theory and Decision 61 (4):329-344.
    A mistake in “Five legitimate definitions of correlated equilibrium (CE) in games with incomplete information” motivates a re-examination of some extensions of the solution concept that Aumann introduced.
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  17. Bayesian Norms and Non-Ideal Agents.Julia Staffel - 2024 - In Maria Lasonen-Aarnio & Clayton Littlejohn (eds.), The Routledge Handbook of the Philosophy of Evidence. New York, NY: Routledge.
    Bayesian epistemology provides a popular and powerful framework for modeling rational norms on credences, including how rational agents should respond to evidence. The framework is built on the assumption that ideally rational agents have credences, or degrees of belief, that are representable by numbers that obey the axioms of probability. From there, further constraints are proposed regarding which credence assignments are rationally permissible, and how rational agents’ credences should change upon learning new evidence. While the details are hotly disputed, (...)
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  18. Nash Equilibrium with Lower Probabilities.Ebbe Groes, Hans Jørgen Jacobsen, Birgitte Sloth & Torben Tranaes - 1998 - Theory and Decision 44 (1):37-66.
    We generalize the concept of Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies for strategic form games to allow for ambiguity in the players' expectations. In contrast to other contributions, we model ambiguity by means of so-called lower probability measures or belief functions, which makes it possible to distinguish between a player's assessment of ambiguity and his attitude towards ambiguity. We also generalize the concept of trembling hand perfect equilibrium. Finally, we demonstrate that for certain attitudes towards ambiguity it is (...)
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  19.  53
    Bayesian Rationality and Decision Making: A Critical Review.Max Albert - 2003 - Analyse & Kritik 25 (1):101-117.
    Bayesianism is the predominant philosophy of science in North-America, the most important school of statistics world-wide, and the general version of the rational-choice approach in the social sciences. Although often rejected as a theory of actual behavior, it is still the benchmark case of perfect rationality. The paper reviews the development of Bayesianism in philosophy, statistics and decision making and questions its status as an account of perfect rationality. Bayesians, who otherwise are squarely in the empiricist camp, invoke (...)
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  20.  27
    Hyperintensional evidence and Bayesian coherence.Ted Poston - 2024 - Asian Journal of Philosophy 3 (1):1-13.
    Bayesian approaches to rationality require that a person’s degrees of belief be coherent. Among other implications, coherence requires that a person has the same degree of belief in every logically equivalent proposition. However, a person can have evidence for a claim without having evidence for all its propositional equivalences. This paper explores this conflict and argues that a person may be perfectly rational by virtue of responding to their evidence, even if their credences are not coherent. The paper also (...)
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  21.  48
    Arbitrage, rationality, and equilibrium.Robert F. Nau & Kevin F. McCardle - 1991 - Theory and Decision 31 (2-3):199-240.
  22.  67
    Introduction to Game Theory.Martin J. Osborne - 2004 - Oxford University Press USA.
    Game-theoretic reasoning pervades economic theory and is used widely in other social and behavioural sciences. An Introduction to Game Theory International Edition, by Martin J. Osborne, presents the main principles of game theory and shows how they can be used to understand economics, social, political, and biological phenomena. The book introduces in an accessible manner the main ideas behind the theory rather than their mathematical expression. All concepts are defined precisely, and logical reasoning is used throughout. The book requires an (...)
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  23.  23
    Bayesian Subjunctive Conditionals for Games and Decisions.Brian Skyrms - 1998 - Vienna Circle Institute Yearbook 5:161-172.
    The theory of rational decision has always been implicitly involved with subjunctive and counterfactual conditionals. “If I were to do A, this would happen; if I were to do B that would happen. ” When I have done A, I use the counterfactual: “If I had done B, the outcome would have been worse. ” Counterfactuals are handled so smoothly in decision theory and game theory that they are hardly ever explicitly discussed except in cases where they cause problems. For (...)
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  24.  38
    Causality and independence in perfectly adapted dynamical systems.Joris M. Mooij & Tineke Blom - 2023 - Journal of Causal Inference 11 (1).
    Perfect adaptation in a dynamical system is the phenomenon that one or more variables have an initial transient response to a persistent change in an external stimulus but revert to their original value as the system converges to equilibrium. With the help of the causal ordering algorithm, one can construct graphical representations of dynamical systems that represent the causal relations between the variables and the conditional independences in the equilibrium distribution. We apply these tools to formulate sufficient (...)
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  25.  8
    Strategic manipulation in Bayesian dialogues.Christina Pawlowitsch - 2021 - Synthese 199 (3-4):11279-11303.
    In a Bayesian dialogue two individuals report their Bayesian updated belief about a certain event back and forth, at each step taking into account the additional information contained in the updated belief announced by the other at the previous step. Such a process, which operates through a reduction of the set of possible states of the world, converges to a commonly known posterior belief, which can be interpreted as a dynamic foundation for Aumann’s agreement result. Certainly, if two (...)
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  26. Infinite Lotteries, Perfectly Thin Darts and Infinitesimals.Alexander R. Pruss - 2012 - Thought: A Journal of Philosophy 1 (2):81-89.
    One of the problems that Bayesian regularity, the thesis that all contingent propositions should be given probabilities strictly between zero and one, faces is the possibility of random processes that randomly and uniformly choose a number between zero and one. According to classical probability theory, the probability that such a process picks a particular number in the range is zero, but of course any number in the range can indeed be picked. There is a solution to this particular problem (...)
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  27.  43
    Veto players and equilibrium uniqueness in the Baron–Ferejohn model.Levent Celik & Bilgehan Karabay - 2016 - Theory and Decision 81 (1):33-52.
    In political economy, the seminal contribution of the Baron–Ferejohn bargaining model constitutes an important milestone for the study of legislative policy making. In this paper, we analyze a particular equilibrium characteristic of this model, equilibrium uniqueness. The Baron–Ferejohn model yields a class of payoff-unique stationary subgame perfect equilibria in which players’ equilibrium strategies are not uniquely determined. We first provide a formal proof of the multiplicity of equilibrium strategies. This also enables us to establish some (...)
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  28.  3
    Strategic Foundations of General Equilibrium: Dynamic Matching and Bargaining Games.Douglas Gale - 2000 - Cambridge University Press.
    The theory of competition has held a central place in economic analysis since Adam Smith. This book, written by one of the most distinguished of contemporary economic theorists, reports on a major research program to provide strategic foundations for the theory of perfect competition. Beginning with a concise survey of how the theory of competition has evolved, Gale makes extensive and rigorous use of dynamic matching and bargaining models to provide a more complete description of how a competitive equlibrium (...)
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  29. A Straightforward Multiallelic Significance Test for the Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium Law.Julio Michael Stern, Marcelo de Souza Lauretto, Fabio Nakano, Silvio Rodrigues Faria & Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira - 2009 - Genetics and Molecular Biology 32 (3):619-625.
    Much forensic inference based upon DNA evidence is made assuming Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) for the genetic loci being used. Several statistical tests to detect and measure deviation from HWE have been devised, and their limitations become more obvious when testing for deviation within multiallelic DNA loci. The most popular methods-Chi-square and Likelihood-ratio tests-are based on asymptotic results and cannot guarantee a good performance in the presence of low frequency genotypes. Since the parameter space dimension increases at a quadratic rate (...)
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  30.  52
    Five Legitimate Definitions of Correlated Equilibrium in Games with Incomplete Information.FranÇoise Forges - 1993 - Theory and Decision 35 (3):277.
  31.  18
    Ideology and neoclassical thought: Perfect competence as original myth.Manuel Antonio Jiménez-Castillo - 2016 - Cinta de Moebio 55:96-105.
    The purpose of this paper aims to unravel the ideological strategy that rises from the well-celebrated epistemic rigor of neoclassical economic thought. From the Economics Nobel Price Paul Krugman’s popularized connotation naming to "freshwater" economists as those fervent followers of the most orthodox academic creed, we will expose the logical inconsistency and empirical implausibility of such thought’s underlying assumptions: perfect competence and equilibrium’s approaching. From a critical analysis that will be conducted from each of those mentioned assumptions, we (...)
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  32.  93
    Should I pretend I'm perfect?Julia Staffel - 2017 - Res Philosophica 94 (2):301-324.
    Ideal agents are role models whose perfection in some normative domain we try to approximate. But which form should this striving take? It is well known that following ideal rules of practical reasoning can have disastrous results for non-ideal agents. Yet, this issue has not been explored with respect to rules of theoretical reasoning. I show how we can extend Bayesian models of ideally rational agents in order to pose and answer the question of whether non-ideal agents should form (...)
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  33.  60
    Are Game Theoretic Concepts Suitable Negotiation Support Tools? From Nash Equilibrium Refinements toward a Cognitive Concept of Rationality.Bertrand R. Munier - 1993 - Theory and Decision 34 (3):235.
  34.  83
    The Logic of Rational Play in Games of Perfect Information.Giacomo Bonanno - 1991 - Economics and Philosophy 7 (1):37-65.
    For the past 20 years or so the literature on noncooperative games has been centered on the search for an equilibrium concept that expresses the notion of rational behavior in interactive situations. A basic tenet in this literature is that if a “rational solution” exists, it must be a Nash equilibrium. The consensus view, however, is that not all Nash equilibria can be accepted as rational solutions. Consider, for example, the game of Figure 1.
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  35. Studies of localized modes by spin-lattice relaxation measurements.Raman Scattering of Phonons In Perfect - 1968 - In Peter Koestenbaum (ed.), Proceedings. [San Jose? Calif.,: [San Jose? Calif..
     
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  36. Paul Weirich.Bayesian Justification - 1994 - In Dag Prawitz & Dag Westerståhl (eds.), Logic and Philosophy of Science in Uppsala. Kluwer Academic Publishers. pp. 245.
     
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  37. Chapter Five Process, Parturition, and Perfect Love: Diotima's Rather Non-Platonic Metaphysic of Eros Donald Wayne Viney.Perfect Love - 2007 - In Thomas Jay Oord (ed.), The Many Facets of Love: Philosophical Explorations. Cambridge Scholars Press. pp. 41.
  38.  22
    The tip-of-the-tongue phenomenon: Do experimenter-presented interlopers have any effect?Timothy J. Perfect & J. Richard Hanley - 1992 - Cognition 45 (1):55-75.
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  39.  31
    Anatomy of forest-related corruption in Tanzania: theoretical perspectives, empirical explanations, and policy implications.Joseph Perfect-Mrema - 2017 - Journal of Global Ethics 13 (2):221-240.
    The majority of studies on natural resources management in both developed and developing countries are silent on the issue of analysis of corruption – or they treat it tangentially, as an annoying anomaly, or simply deviance from the rules. As a result, the issue has hardly been subjected to in-depth characterisation or reforms. This study employed and integrated mainstream principal-agent theory and more recently developed collective action theory to enhance our understanding – in different but complementary ways − of the (...)
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  40.  21
    Feeling-of-knowing judgments do not predict subsequent recognition performance for eyewitness memory.Timothy J. Perfect & Tara S. Hollins - 1999 - Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 5 (3):250.
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  41.  14
    Models of Cognitive Aging.Timothy J. Perfect & Elizabeth A. Maylor (eds.) - 2000 - Oxford University Press UK.
    We live in an ageing society, where people are living longer, and where decreases in the birth rate mean that the proportion of the population above retirement age is steadily increasing. An ageing population has considerable implications for health services and care provision. Consequently there is a growing interest among researchers, medical practitioners, and policy makers in older adults, their capabilities, and the changes in their cognitive functioning. This book offers an up-to-the-minute account of the latest methodological and theoretical issues (...)
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  42. The Astonishing Life of Octavian Nothing - Traitor to the Nation Volume One: The Pox Party [Book Review].Lauren Perfect - 2009 - Agora (History Teachers' Association of Victoria) 44 (4):73.
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  43.  30
    Visual distraction during word-list retrieval does not consistently disrupt memory.Pamela J. L. Rae & Timothy J. Perfect - 2014 - Frontiers in Psychology 5.
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  44.  97
    Implementing equal division with an ultimatum threat.Esat Doruk Cetemen & Emin Karagözoğlu - 2014 - Theory and Decision 77 (2):223-236.
    We modify the payment rule of the standard divide the dollar (DD) game by introducing a second stage and thereby resolve the multiplicity problem and implement equal division of the dollar in equilibrium. In the standard DD game, if the sum of players’ demands is less than or equal to a dollar, each player receives what he demanded; if the sum of demands is greater than a dollar, all players receive zero. We modify this second part, which involves a (...)
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  45.  47
    Hans Jonas. [REVIEW]Craig Perfect - 2003 - Graduate Faculty Philosophy Journal 24 (1):231-235.
    As the first full-length book dedicated to the philosophical legacy of Hans Jonas, The Integrity of Thinking is largely dedicated to summarizing and integrating the diverse phases in Jonas’ lifework. But the book has another, more ambitious goal. David Levy attempts to demonstrate that Hans Jonas is, for matters of public policy, nothing less than the most important philosopher of the twentieth century. This alleged importance stems from his unique philosophical achievements and their manifold practical applications. According to Levy, Jonas’ (...)
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  46.  4
    Hans Jonas. [REVIEW]Craig Perfect - 2003 - Graduate Faculty Philosophy Journal 24 (1):231-235.
    As the first full-length book dedicated to the philosophical legacy of Hans Jonas, The Integrity of Thinking is largely dedicated to summarizing and integrating the diverse phases in Jonas’ lifework. But the book has another, more ambitious goal. David Levy attempts to demonstrate that Hans Jonas is, for matters of public policy, nothing less than the most important philosopher of the twentieth century. This alleged importance stems from his unique philosophical achievements and their manifold practical applications. According to Levy, Jonas’ (...)
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  47.  4
    De interpretatione. Aristotle & The Perfect Library - 1969 - Bergamo,: Minerva italica. Edited by Antiseri, Dario & [From Old Catalog].
    "De interpretatione" from Aristoteles. Aristotle (384-322 BCE) was a Greek philosopher born in Greece.
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  48.  52
    On Stackelberg mixed strategies.Vincent Conitzer - 2016 - Synthese 193 (3):689-703.
    It is sometimes the case that one solution concept in game theory is equivalent to applying another solution concept to a modified version of the game. In such cases, does it make sense to study the former separately, or should we entirely subordinate it to the latter? The answer probably depends on the particular circumstances, and indeed the literature takes different approaches in different cases. In this article, I consider the specific example of Stackelberg mixed strategies. I argue that, even (...)
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  49.  2
    De unitate intellectus contra Averroistas.Thomas Aquinas & The Perfect The Perfect Library - 1936 - Romae,: apud aedes Pont. universitatis gregorianae. Edited by Leo William Keeler.
    "De unitate intellectus contra Averroistas" from Thomas Aquinas. Thomas Aquinas (1225-1274), sanctus, doctor Ecclesiae catholicae, theologus italianus et philosophus mediaevalis.
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  50.  9
    Law Versus Morality: Cases and Commentaries on Ethical Issues in Social Work Practice.Casmir Obinna Odo, Uche Louisa Nwatu, Manal Makkieh, Perfect Elikplim Kobla Ametepe & Sarah Banks - 2023 - Ethics and Social Welfare 17 (1):83-89.
    This article examines two cases that present ethical challenges encountered by social workers in making decisions either to maintain professional boundaries or fulfil moral obligations while working with service users in vulnerable situations. In the first case, a Lebanese social worker narrates how she was motivated to step out of her official responsibilities to assist a refugee mother of three who showed suicidal ideation. In the second case, a Ugandan social worker recounts her experience while working with a family whose (...)
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