Results for 'Indeterminate probability'

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  1. Isaac Levi.on Indeterminate Probabilities - 1978 - In A. Hooker, J. J. Leach & E. F. McClennen (eds.), Foundations and Applications of Decision Theory. D. Reidel. pp. 233.
     
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  2. On indeterminate probabilities.Isaac Levi - 1974 - Journal of Philosophy 71 (13):391-418.
  3.  51
    On Indeterminate Probabilities.Isaac Levi - 1978 - Journal of Philosophy 71 (13):233--261.
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  4. Rationality and indeterminate probabilities.Alan Hájek & Michael Smithson - 2012 - Synthese 187 (1):33-48.
    We argue that indeterminate probabilities are not only rationally permissible for a Bayesian agent, but they may even be rationally required . Our first argument begins by assuming a version of interpretivism: your mental state is the set of probability and utility functions that rationalize your behavioral dispositions as well as possible. This set may consist of multiple probability functions. Then according to interpretivism, this makes it the case that your credal state is indeterminate. Our second (...)
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  5.  13
    Why indeterminate probability is rational.Isaac Levi - 2009 - Journal of Applied Logic 7 (4):364-376.
  6. Imprecise and Indeterminate Probabilities.Fabio G. Cozman - 2016 - In Alan Hájek & Christopher Hitchcock (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
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  7.  32
    Decisions with indeterminate probabilities.Teddy Seidenfeld - 1983 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 6 (2):259-261.
  8.  13
    Bayesian Inference with Indeterminate Probabilities.Stephen Spielman - 1976 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1976:185 - 196.
    The theory of personal probability needs to be developed as a logic of credibility in order to provide an adequate basis for the theories of scientific inference and rational decision making. But standard systems of personal probability impose formal structures on probability relationships which are too restrictive to qualify them as logics of credibility. Moreover, some rules for conditional probability have no justification as principles of credibility. A formal system of qualitative probability which is free (...)
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  9. Isaac Levi and Indeterminate Probability, Decision Theory and the Problem of Induction in Philosophy of Science (2020).Jack Robert June Edmunds-Coopey - manuscript
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  10.  36
    Decisions with indeterminate probabilities.Ronald P. Loui - 1986 - Theory and Decision 21 (3):283-309.
  11. Forecasting with Imprecise/Indeterminate Probabilities [IP] – some preliminary findings.Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark Schervish & Jay Kadane - unknown
    Part 1 Background on de Finetti’s twin criteria of coherence: Coherence1: 2-sided previsions free from dominance through a Book. Coherence2: Forecasts free from dominance under Brier (squared error) score. Part 2 IP theory based on a scoring rule.
     
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  12. Ambiguity aversion: the explanatory power of indeterminate probabilities.Horacio Arló-Costa & Jeffrey Helzner - 2010 - Synthese 172 (1):37-55.
    Daniel Ellsberg presented in Ellsberg (The Quarterly Journal of Economics 75:643–669, 1961) various examples questioning the thesis that decision making under uncertainty can be reduced to decision making under risk. These examples constitute one of the main challenges to the received view on the foundations of decision theory offered by Leonard Savage in Savage (1972). Craig Fox and Amos Tversky have, nevertheless, offered an indirect defense of Savage. They provided in Fox and Tversky (1995) an explanation of Ellsberg’s two-color problem (...)
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  13. On the Explanatory Power of Indeterminate Probabilities.Jeffrey Helzner & Horacio Arlo-Costa - unknown
    Building on work that we reported at ISIPTA 2005 we revisit claims made by Fox and Tversky concerning their "comparative ignorance" hypothesis for decision making under uncertainty.
     
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  14. Incomplete Preference and Indeterminate Comparative Probabilities.Yang Liu - 2022 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 73 (3):795-810.
    The notion of comparative probability defined in Bayesian subjectivist theory stems from an intuitive idea that, for a given pair of events, one event may be considered “more probable” than the other. Yet it is conceivable that there are cases where it is indeterminate as to which event is more probable, due to, e.g., lack of robust statistical information. We take that these cases involve indeterminate comparative probabilities. This paper provides a Savage-style decision-theoretic foundation for indeterminate (...)
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  15. Perceiving indeterminately.Bence Nanay - 2020 - Thought: A Journal of Philosophy 9 (3):160-166.
    It has been argued recently that perception is indeterminate. But there are more than one ways of spelling out what this means. The standard line is that perceptual states attribute different probabilities to different propositions. I provide an alternative to this view, where it is not the attitude, but the content of perceptual states that is indeterminate, inasmuch as it consists of the representation of determinable properties. This view does justice to the more general claim that perception is (...)
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  16. Distinguishing indeterminate belief from “risk-averse” preferences.Katie Steele - 2007 - Synthese 158 (2):189-205.
    I focus my discussion on the well-known Ellsberg paradox. I find good normative reasons for incorporating non-precise belief, as represented by sets of probabilities, in an Ellsberg decision model. This amounts to forgoing the completeness axiom of expected utility theory. Provided that probability sets are interpreted as genuinely indeterminate belief, such a model can moreover make the “Ellsberg choices” rationally permissible. Without some further element to the story, however, the model does not explain how an agent may come (...)
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  17. Extending Bayesian Theory to Cooperative Groups: an introduction to Indeterminate/Imprecise Probability Theories [IP] also see www.sipta.org.Teddy Seidenfeld & Mark Schervish - unknown
    Pi(AS) = Pi(A)Pi(S) for i = 1, 2. But the Linear Pool created a group opinion P3 with positive dependence. P3(A|S) > P3(A).
     
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  18.  46
    Indeterminate Preferences.Martin Peterson - 2006 - Philosophical Studies 130 (2):297-320.
    It is commonly assumed that preferences are determinate; that is, that an agent who has a preference knows that she has the preference in question and is disposed to act upon it. This paper argues the dubiousness of that assumption. An account of indeterminate preferences in terms of self-predicting subjective probabilities is given, and a decision rule for choices involving indeterminate preferences is proposed. Wolfgang Spohn’s and Isaac Levi ’s arguments against self-predicting probabilities are also considered, in light (...)
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  19.  44
    Indeterminate Causation and Apportionment of Damages: An Essay on Holtby, Allen, and Fairchild.Ariel Porat & Alex Stein - 2003 - Oxford Journal of Legal Studies 23 (4):667-702.
    Holtby, Allen and Fairchild are both recent and revolutionary decisions that address an important aspect of the indeterminate causation problem that frequently arises in tort litigation. In Holtby and Allen, the Court of Appeal departed from the traditional binary approach, under which a tort claimant either recovers compensation for his or her entire injury or is altogether denied recovery—depending on whether his or her case against the defendant is more probable than not. Holtby and Allen substituted this approach by (...)
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  20. Subjective Probabilities Should be Sharp.Adam Elga - 2010 - Philosophers' Imprint 10.
    Many have claimed that unspecific evidence sometimes demands unsharp, indeterminate, imprecise, vague, or interval-valued probabilities. Against this, a variant of the diachronic Dutch Book argument shows that perfectly rational agents always have perfectly sharp probabilities.
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  21.  60
    Subjective causal networks and indeterminate suppositional credences.Jiji Zhang, Teddy Seidenfeld & Hailin Liu - 2019 - Synthese 198 (Suppl 27):6571-6597.
    This paper has two main parts. In the first part, we motivate a kind of indeterminate, suppositional credences by discussing the prospect for a subjective interpretation of a causal Bayesian network, an important tool for causal reasoning in artificial intelligence. A CBN consists of a causal graph and a collection of interventional probabilities. The subjective interpretation in question would take the causal graph in a CBN to represent the causal structure that is believed by an agent, and interventional probabilities (...)
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  22.  74
    The Probability Problem in Everettian Quantum Mechanics Persists.Foad Dizadji-Bahmani - 2015 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 66 (2):257-283.
    Everettian quantum mechanics (EQM) results in ‘multiple, emergent, branching quasi-classical realities’ (Wallace [2012]). The possible outcomes of measurement as per ‘orthodox’ quantum mechanics are, in EQM, all instantiated. Given this metaphysics, Everettians face the ‘probability problem’—how to make sense of probabilities and recover the Born rule. To solve the probability problem, Wallace, following Deutsch ([1999]), has derived a quantum representation theorem. I argue that Wallace’s solution to the probability problem is unsuccessful, as follows. First, I examine one (...)
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  23.  6
    Heterodox Probability Theory.Peter Forrest - 2006 - In Dale Jacquette (ed.), A Companion to Philosophical Logic. Oxford, UK: Blackwell. pp. 582–594.
    This chapter contains sections titled: The Bayesian Orthodoxy Idealization Two Approaches to a Theory of Probability Adjustment for Nonclassical Logics Carnap's Confirmation Theory Proportional Syllogisms Kyburg's Fuzzy Probabilities Levi's Indeterminate Systems Qualitative Theories of Probability The Dynamics of Subjective Probability Probability Theory and Quantum Theory.
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  24.  5
    Probability in Economics.Omar Hamouda & Robin Rowley - 2013 - Routledge.
    Notions of probability and uncertainty have been increasingly prominant in modern economics. This book considers the philosophical and practical difficulties inherent in integrating these concepts into realistic economic situations. It outlines and evaluates the major developments, indicating where further work is needed. This book addresses: * probability, utility and rationality within current economic thought and practice * concepts of ignorance and indeterminancy * experimental economics * econometrics, with particular reference inference and estimation.
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  25.  92
    Imprecision and indeterminacy in probability judgment.Isaac Levi - 1985 - Philosophy of Science 52 (3):390-409.
    Bayesians often confuse insistence that probability judgment ought to be indeterminate (which is incompatible with Bayesian ideals) with recognition of the presence of imprecision in the determination or measurement of personal probabilities (which is compatible with these ideals). The confusion is discussed and illustrated by remarks in a recent essay by R. C. Jeffrey.
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  26. Decision making with imprecise probabilities.Brian Weatherson - 1998
    Orthodox Bayesian decision theory requires an agent’s beliefs representable by a real-valued function, ideally a probability function. Many theorists have argued this is too restrictive; it can be perfectly reasonable to have indeterminate degrees of belief. So doxastic states are ideally representable by a set of probability functions. One consequence of this is that the expected value of a gamble will be imprecise. This paper looks at the attempts to extend Bayesian decision theory to deal with such (...)
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  27. On the imprecision of full conditional probabilities.Gregory Wheeler & Fabio G. Cozman - 2021 - Synthese 199 (1-2):3761-3782.
    The purpose of this paper is to show that if one adopts conditional probabilities as the primitive concept of probability, one must deal with the fact that even in very ordinary circumstances at least some probability values may be imprecise, and that some probability questions may fail to have numerically precise answers.
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  28. Why Should We Try to be Sustainable? Expected Consequences and the Ethics of Making an Indeterminate Difference.Howard Nye - 2021 - In Chelsea Miya, Oliver Rossier & Geoffrey Rockwell (eds.), Right Research: Modelling Sustainable Research Practices in the Anthropocene. Open Book Publishers. pp. 3-35.
    Why should we refrain from doing things that, taken collectively, are environmentally destructive, if our individual acts seem almost certain to make no difference? According to the expected consequences approach, we should refrain from doing these things because our individual acts have small risks of causing great harm, which outweigh the expected benefits of performing them. Several authors have argued convincingly that this provides a plausible account of our moral reasons to do things like vote for policies that will reduce (...)
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  29.  5
    De l’intraitable à l’indéterminé : entre calcul et géométrie, réflexions leibniziennes autour de ⁰⁄₀.Sandra Bella - 2021 - Philosophia Scientiae 25:21-45.
    Leibniz introduit l’expression « ⁰⁄₀ » en 1672 dans un écrit mathématique sur les séries numériques pour exprimer la somme des unités. Il s’agit très probablement d’une des premières apparitions de cette expression dans l’histoire des mathématiques. Leibniz cependant l’abandonne aussitôt. Elle apparaît à nouveau dans le contexte du calcul différentiel au moment où celui-ci fait débat à l’Académie royale des sciences. Une des questions les plus saillantes soulevées par l’introduction du nouveau calcul est de savoir si la notion de (...)
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  30. A Decision Theory for Imprecise Probabilities.Susanna Rinard - 2015 - Philosophers' Imprint 15.
    Those who model doxastic states with a set of probability functions, rather than a single function, face a pressing challenge: can they provide a plausible decision theory compatible with their view? Adam Elga and others claim that they cannot, and that the set of functions model should be rejected for this reason. This paper aims to answer this challenge. The key insight is that the set of functions model can be seen as an instance of the supervaluationist approach to (...)
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  31. PCR5 and Neutrosophic Probability in Target Identification.Florentin Smarandache, N. Abbas, Y. Chibani, B. Hadjadji & Z. A. Omar - 2017 - Neutrosophic Sets and Systems 16:76-79.
    In this paper, we use PCR5 in order to fusion the information of two sources providing subjective probabilities of an event A to occur in the following form: chance that A occurs, indeterminate chance of occurrence of A, chance that A does not occur. -/- .
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  32. Hermann Vetter.Logical Probability - 1970 - In Paul Weingartner & Gerhard Zecha (eds.), Induction, physics, and ethics. Dordrecht,: Reidel. pp. 75.
     
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  33.  4
    ma: tMlW)(D.What Remains Of Probability - 2010 - In F. Stadler, D. Dieks, W. Gonzales, S. Hartmann, T. Uebel & M. Weber (eds.), The Present Situation in the Philosophy of Science. Springer. pp. 373.
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  34. Paolo legrenzi.Naive Probability - 2003 - In M. C. Galavotti (ed.), Observation and Experiment in the Natural and Social Sciences. Springer Verlag. pp. 232--43.
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  35. Philippe Mongin.Nonaddittve Probability - 1994 - In Dag Prawitz & Dag Westerståhl (eds.), Logic and Philosophy of Science in Uppsala. Kluwer Academic Publishers. pp. 49.
     
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  36.  19
    Jon Williamson.Probability Logic - 2002 - In Dov M. Gabbay (ed.), Handbook of the Logic of Argument and Inference: The Turn Towards the Practical. Elsevier. pp. 397.
  37. Theory and decison.Richard G. Brody, John M. Coulter, Alireza Daneshfar, Auditor Probability Judgments, Discounting Unspecified Possibilities, Paula Corcho, José Luis Ferreira & Generalized Externality Games - 2003 - Theory and Decision 54:375-376.
     
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  38. You've Come a Long Way, Bayesians.Jonathan Weisberg - 2015 - Journal of Philosophical Logic 44 (6):817-834.
    Forty years ago, Bayesian philosophers were just catching a new wave of technical innovation, ushering in an era of scoring rules, imprecise credences, and infinitesimal probabilities. Meanwhile, down the hall, Gettier’s 1963 paper [28] was shaping a literature with little obvious interest in the formal programs of Reichenbach, Hempel, and Carnap, or their successors like Jeffrey, Levi, Skyrms, van Fraassen, and Lewis. And how Bayesians might accommodate the discourses of full belief and knowledge was but a glimmer in the eye (...)
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  39.  35
    Introduction: Toward a Definition of Biosemiosic Chance.Victoria N. Alexander - 2014 - Biosemiotics 7 (3):329-334.
    In this special issue, our objective is to clarify what biosemioticians may mean insofar as they claim that living systems are capable of making choices or that biosemiotic interpretations are partially indeterminate. A number of different senses of the term “chance” are discussed as we move toward a consensus. We find that biosemiosic chance may arise out of conditions involving quantum indeterminacy, randomness, deterministic chaos, or unpredictability, but biosemiosic chance is mainly due to the fact that living entities invest (...)
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  40.  50
    The fallacy of intrinsic distributions.Amos Nathan - 1984 - Philosophy of Science 51 (4):677-684.
    Jaynes contends that in many statistical problems a seemingly indeterminate probability distribution is made unique by the transformation group of necessarily implied invariance properties, thereby justifying the principle of indifference. To illustrate and substantiate his claims he considers Bertrand's Paradox. These assertions are here refuted and the traditional attitude is vindicated.
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  41.  72
    Risk's Place in Decision Rules.Paul Weirich - 2001 - Synthese 126 (3):427-441.
    To handle epistemic and pragmatic risks, Gärdenfors and Sahlin (1982, 1988) design a decision procedure for cases in which probabilities are indeterminate. Their procedure steps outside the traditional expected utility framework. Must it do this? Can the traditional framework handle risk? This paper argues that it can. The key is a comprehensive interpretation of an option's possible outcomes. Taking possible outcomes more broadly than Gärdenfors and Sahlin do, expected utility can give risk its due. In particular, Good's (1952) decision (...)
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  42.  23
    What is Wrong with Strict Bayesianism?Patrick Maher - 1986 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1986:450 - 457.
    Bayesian decision theory, in its classical or strict form, requires agents to have a determinate probability function. In recent years many decision theorists have come to think that this requirement should be weakened to allow for cases in which the agent makes indeterminate probability judgments. It has been claimed that this weakening makes the theory more realistic, and that it makes the theory more tenable as a normative ideal. This paper shows that the usual technique for weakening (...)
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  43.  29
    Fallacy and controversy about base rates.Isaac Levi - 1996 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 19 (1):31-32.
    Koehler's target article attempts a balanced view of the relevance of knowledge of base rates to judgments of subjective or credal probability, but he is not sensitive enough to the difference between requiring and permitting the equation of probability judgments with base rates, the interaction between precision of base rate and reference class information, and the possibility of indeterminate probability judgment.
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  44.  90
    Indeterminacy of fair infinite lotteries.Philip Kremer - 2014 - Synthese 191 (8):1757-1760.
    In ‘Fair Infinite Lotteries’ (FIL), Wenmackers and Horsten use non-standard analysis to construct a family of nicely-behaved hyperrational-valued probability measures on sets of natural numbers. Each probability measure in FIL is determined by a free ultrafilter on the natural numbers: distinct free ultrafilters determine distinct probability measures. The authors reply to a worry about a consequent ‘arbitrariness’ by remarking, “A different choice of free ultrafilter produces a different ... probability function with the same standard part but (...)
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  45.  89
    Realistic Decision Theory: Rules for Nonideal Agents in Nonideal Circumstances.Paul Weirich - 2004 - New York, US: OUP Usa.
    Decision theory aims at a general account of rationality covering humans but to begin makes idealizations about decision problems and agents' resources and circumstances. It treats inerrant agents with unlimited cognitive power facing tractable decision problems. This book systematically rolls back idealizations and without loss of precision treats errant agents with limited cognitive abilities facing decision problems without a stable top option. It recommends choices that maximize utility using quantizations of beliefs and desires in cases where probabilities and utilities are (...)
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  46. Unsharp Sharpness.Nils-Eric Sahlin & Paul Weirich - 2013 - Theoria 80 (1):100-103.
    In a recent, thought-provoking paper Adam Elga argues against unsharp – e.g., indeterminate, fuzzy and unreliable – probabilities. Rationality demands sharpness, he contends, and this means that decision theories like Levi's, Gärdenfors and Sahlin's, and Kyburg's, though they employ different decision rules, face a common, and serious, problem. This article defends the rule to maximize minimum expected utility against Elga's objection.
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  47. Vague Credence.Aidan Lyon - 2017 - Synthese 194 (10):3931-3954.
    It is natural to think of precise probabilities as being special cases of imprecise probabilities, the special case being when one’s lower and upper probabilities are equal. I argue, however, that it is better to think of the two models as representing two different aspects of our credences, which are often vague to some degree. I show that by combining the two models into one model, and understanding that model as a model of vague credence, a natural interpretation arises that (...)
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  48.  85
    Some epistemological ramifications of the Borel–Kolmogorov paradox.Michael Rescorla - 2015 - Synthese 192 (3):735-767.
    This paper discusses conditional probability $$P$$ P , or the probability of A given B. When $$P>0$$ P > 0 , the ratio formula determines $$P$$ P . When $$P=0$$ P = 0 , the ratio formula breaks down. The Borel–Kolmogorov paradox suggests that conditional probabilities in such cases are indeterminate or ill-posed. To analyze the paradox, I explore the relation between probability and intensionality. I argue that the paradox is a Frege case, similar to those (...)
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  49.  78
    The Solvability of Probabilistic Regresses. A Reply to Frederik Herzberg.David Atkinson & Jeanne Peijnenburg - 2010 - Studia Logica 94 (3):347-353.
    We have earlier shown by construction that a proposition can have a welldefined nonzero probability, even if it is justified by an infinite probabilistic regress. We thought this to be an adequate rebuttal of foundationalist claims that probabilistic regresses must lead either to an indeterminate, or to a determinate but zero probability. In a comment, Frederik Herzberg has argued that our counterexamples are of a special kind, being what he calls ‘solvable’. In the present reaction we investigate (...)
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  50.  4
    La consonance imparfaite, Maurice Merleau-Ponty et la psychanalyse.Thamy Ayouch - 2012 - Lormont: Le Bord de l'eau.
    C'est "par ce qu'elle sous-entend ou dévoile à sa limite - par son contenu latent ou inconscient - que la phénoménologie est en consonance avec la psychanalyse", écrit Maurice Merleau-Ponty en 1960, dans la préface à l'ouvrage de Angelo Hesnard L'Oeuvre et l'esprit de Freud. Singulière euphonie, que celle ici entendue entre deux disciplines habituellement opposées dans leurs définitions : l'une centre en effet ses recherches sur la conscience, l'autre sur l'inconscient ; la première s'en tient à la description la (...)
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