17 found
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Michael Smithson [15]Michael J. Smithson [2]
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Michael Smithson
Australian National University
  1. Rationality and Indeterminate Probabilities.Alan Hájek & Michael Smithson - 2012 - Synthese 187 (1):33-48.
    We argue that indeterminate probabilities are not only rationally permissible for a Bayesian agent, but they may even be rationally required . Our first argument begins by assuming a version of interpretivism: your mental state is the set of probability and utility functions that rationalize your behavioral dispositions as well as possible. This set may consist of multiple probability functions. Then according to interpretivism, this makes it the case that your credal state is indeterminate. Our second argument begins with our (...)
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  2.  60
    Toward a Social Theory of Ignorance.Michael Smithson - 1985 - Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour 15 (2):151–172.
  3.  11
    Ambiguity and Conflict Aversion When Uncertainty Is in the Outcomes.Michael Smithson, Daniel Priest, Yiyun Shou & Ben R. Newell - 2019 - Frontiers in Psychology 10.
  4. Social Theories of Ignorance.Michael J. Smithson - 2008 - In Robert N. Proctor & Londa Schiebinger (eds.), Agnotology: The Making and Unmaking of Ignorance. Stanford University Press Stanford, California. pp. 209--229.
     
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  5. Resolving Social Dilemmas: Dynamic, Structural, and Intergroup Aspects.Margaret Foddy, Michael Smithson, Sherry Schneider & Michael A. Hogg (eds.) - 1999 - Psychology Press.
    First published in 1999. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
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  6.  9
    Effects of Question Formats on Causal Judgments and Model Evaluation.Yiyun Shou & Michael Smithson - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
  7.  9
    Probability Judgments Under Ambiguity and Conflict.Michael Smithson - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
  8.  22
    How Many Alternatives? Partitions Pose Problems for Predictions and Diagnoses.Michael Smithson - 2009 - Social Epistemology 23 (3):347-360.
    This paper focuses on one matter that poses a problem for both human judges and standard probability frameworks, namely the assumption of a unique (privileged) and complete partition of the state-space of possible events. This is tantamount to assuming that we know all possible outcomes or alternatives in advance of making a decision, but it is clear that there are many practical situations in prediction, diagnosis, and decision-making where such partitions are contestable and/or incomplete. The paper begins by surveying the (...)
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  9.  26
    Scale Construction From a Decisional Viewpoint.Michael Smithson - 2006 - Minds and Machines 16 (3):339-364.
    Many quantitative scales are constructed using cutoffs on a continuum with scores assigned to the cutoffs. This paper develops a framework for using or constructing such scales from a decision-making standpoint. It addresses questions such as: How many distinct thresholds or cutoffs on a scale (i.e., what levels of granularity) are useful for a rational agent? Where should these thresholds be placed given a rational agent’s preferences and risk-orientation? Do scale score assignments have any bearing on decision-making and if so, (...)
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  10. The Psychological Benefits of an Uncertain World: Hope and Optimism in the Face of Existential Threat.Michael Smithson, Yiyun Shou, Amy Dawel, Alison L. Calear, Louise Farrer & Nicolas Cherbuin - 2022 - Frontiers in Psychology 13.
    We examine how prior mental health predicts hopes and how hopes predict subsequent mental health, testing hypotheses in a longitudinal study with an Australian nation-wide adult sample regarding mental health consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak during its initial stage. Quota sampling was used to select a sample representative of the adult Australian population in terms of age groups, gender, and geographical location. Mental health measures were selected to include those with the best psychometric properties. Hypotheses were tested using generalized linear (...)
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  11.  12
    Interests and the Growth of Uncertainty.Michael Smithson - 1980 - Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour 10 (3):157–168.
    The sociology of knowledge and related work in social psychology have been biased towards overvaluing shared perspectives and the attainment of certainty. This paper moves to fill a theoretical gap created by relative inattention to the roles of nonshared perspectives and uncertainty by outlining a middle-range theory of the connections between human interests and uncertainty. It is proposed that individuals and groups find instrumental uses for uncertainty, just as they do for other states of mind, and that these uses arise (...)
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  12.  22
    Groupness in Preverbal Infants: Proof of Concept.Benjamin Sylvester Bradley & Michael Smithson - 2017 - Frontiers in Psychology 8.
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  13.  23
    Randomly Stopped Sums: Models and Psychological Applications.Michael Smithson & Yiyun Shou - 2014 - Frontiers in Psychology 5.
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  14.  14
    Asymmetries in Responses to Attitude Statements: The Example of “Zero-Sum” Beliefs.Michael Smithson & Yiyun Shou - 2016 - Frontiers in Psychology 7.
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  15.  10
    Science, Ignorance and Human Values.Michael Smithson - 1996 - Journal of Human Values 2 (1):67-81.
    This paper attempts to establish that ignorance is a necessary condition for science to have a purpose, just as it is a precondition for any kind of intentional learning or discovety. The author argues that those who find intrinsic value in science must necessarily attribute positive value to ignorance, for the relationship between the two is symbiotic rather than combative. He presents a number of ways in which scientific ignorance may be positively valued by scientists and non-scientists and lays down (...)
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  16.  25
    Models for Fuzzy Nominal Data.Michael Smithson - 1982 - Theory and Decision 14 (1):51-74.
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  17.  9
    When Ignorance is Adaptive: Not Knowing About the Nuclear Threat.Joseph P. Reser & Michael J. Smithson - 1988 - Knowledge in Society 1 (4):7-27.
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