Addresses ‘too-odd-not-to-be-true’ reasoning in the assessment of testimony. This is the curious phenomenon that an initially less plausible report from multiple independent witnesses may elicit more confidence than an initially more plausible report.

The Sure-Thing Principle famously appears in Savage’s axiomatization of Subjective Expected Utility. Yet Savage introduces it only as an informal, overarching dominance condition motivating his separability postulate P2 and his state-independence postulate P3. Once these axioms are introduced, by and large, he does not discuss the principle any more. In this note, we pick up the analysis of the Sure-Thing Principle where Savage left it. In particular, we show that each of P2 and P3 is equivalent to a dominance condition; (...) that they strengthen in different directions a common, basic dominance axiom; and that they can be explicitly combined in a unified dominance condition that is a candidate formal statement for the Sure-Thing Principle. Based on elementary proofs, our results shed light on some of the most fundamental properties of rational choice under uncertainty. In particular they imply, as corollaries, potential simplifications for Savage’s and the Anscombe- Aumann axiomatizations of Subjective Expected Utility. Most surprisingly perhaps, they reveal that in Savage’s axiomatization, P3 can be weakened to a natural strengthening of so-called Obvious Dominance. (shrink)

We provide a novel Bayesian justification of inference to the best explanation. More specifically, we present conditions under which explanatory considerations can provide a significant confirmatory boost for hypotheses that provide the best explanation of the relevant evidence. Furthermore, we show that the proposed Bayesian model of IBE is able to deal naturally with the best known criticisms of IBE such as van Fraassen?s?bad lot? argument.

The "myside bias'' in evaluating arguments is an empirically well-confirmed phenomenon that consists of overweighting arguments that endorse one's beliefs or attack alternative beliefs while underweighting arguments that attack one's beliefs or defend alternative beliefs. This paper makes two contributions: First, it proposes a probabilistic model that adequately captures three salient features of myside bias in argument evaluation. Second, it provides a Bayesian justification of this model, thus showing that myside bias has a rational Bayesian explanation under certain conditions.

During his long and continuing scholarly career, Patrick Suppes contributed significantly both to the sciences and to their philosophies. The volume consists of papers by an international group of Suppes colleagues, collaborators, and students in many of the areas of his expertise, building on or adding to his insights. Michael Friedman offers an overview of Suppes accomplishments and of his unique perspective on the relation between science and philosophy. Paul Humphreys, Stephen Hartmann, and Tom Ryckman present essays in the (...) philosophy of physics. Jens-Erik Fenstad, Harvey Friedman, and Jaako Hintikka consider problems in the foundations of mathematics, while the late Duncan Luce, Jean-Claude Falmagne, Brian Skyrms, and Hannes Leitgeb have contributed essays in theory of measurement, decision theory and probability. Foundations of economics and political theory are addressed by Adolfo Garcia de la Sienra, Russell Hardin, and Kenneth Arrow. Psychology, language, and philosophy of language are addressed by Elizabeth Loftus, Anne Fagot-Largeault, Willem Levelt, Dagfinn Follesdal, and Marcos Perreau-Guimares and some of Suppes most recent research in neurobiology is addressed in essays by Colleen Crangle, Acadio de Barros and Claudio Carvalhes. Finally Nancy Cartwright and Alexandre Marcelles consider the alignment (or misalignment) of method and policy. Each of the essays is accompanied by a response from Suppes.". (shrink)

It is no exaggeration to say that of the early 20th century German philosophers who claimed to establish a new ontology, former neo-Kantian turned realist Nicolai Hartmann is the only one to have actually followed through. "Ontology: Laying the Foundations" deals with "what is insofar as it is," and its four parts tackle traditional ontological assumptions and prejudices and traditional categories such as substance, thing, individual, whole, object, and phenomenon; a novel redefinition of existence and essence in terms of (...) the ontological factors Dasein and Sosein and their interrelations; an analysis of modes of "givenness" and the ontological embeddedness of cognition in affective transcendent acts; and a discussion of the status of ideal being, including mathematical being, phenomenological essences, logical laws, values, and the interconnections between the ideal and real spheres. Hartmann’s work offers rich resources for those interested in overcoming the human-centeredness of much 20th century philosophy. Hartmann’s work offers rich resources for those interested in overcoming the human-centeredness of much 20th century philosophy. (shrink)

Husserl saw the Cartesian critique of scepticism as one of the eternal merits of Descartes’ philosophy. In doing so, he accepted the legitimacy of the very idea of a universal doubt, and sought to present as an alternative to it a renewed, specifically phenomenological concept of self-evidence, making it possible to obtain an unshakable foundation for the edifice of knowledge. This acceptance of the skeptical problem underlies his entire conceptual framework, both before and after the transcendental turn, and especially the (...) immanence/transcendence distinction, i.e., the very basis of intentionality. In taking as its starting point an analysis of perception, the article puts forth a certain number of phenomenological arguments in order to put into question the validity of the skeptical problem and, therefore, of the Husserlian conceptual framework; it defends, in the first place, a disjunctive conception of perception and, in the second place, a holism of experience. (shrink)

I describe the general structure of most infinite regress arguments; introduce some basic vocabulary; present a working hypothesis of the nature and derivation of an infinite regress; apply this working hypothesis to various infinite regress arguments to explain why they fail to entail an infinite regress; describe a common mistake in attempting to derive certain infinite regresses; and examine how infinite regresses function as a premise.

This paper discusses some of the ways in which circular definitions and circular explanations entail or fail to entail infinite regresses. And since not all infinite regresses are vicious, a few criteria of viciousness are examined in order to determine when the entailment of a regress refutes a circular definition or a circular explanation.

The my-side bias is a well-documented cognitive bias in the evaluation of arguments, in which reasoners in a discussion tend to overvalue arguments that confirm their prior beliefs, while undervaluing arguments that attack their prior beliefs. The first part of this paper develops and justifies a Bayesian model of myside bias at the level of individual reasoning. In the second part, this Bayesian model is implemented in an agent-based model of group discussion among myside-biased agents. The agent-based model is then (...) used to perform a number of experiments with the objective to study whether the myside bias hinders or enhances the ability of groups to collectively track the truth, that is, to reach the correct answer to a given binary issue. An analysis of the results suggests the following: First, whether the truth-tracking ability of groups is helped or hindered by myside bias crucially depends on how the strength of myside bias is differentially distributed across subgroups of discussants holding different beliefs. Second, small groups are more likely to track the truth than larger groups, suggesting that increasing group size has a detrimental effect on collective truth-tracking through discussion. (shrink)

Taking the problem of perception and illusion as a leading clue, this article presents a new phenomenological approach to perception and the world: holism of experience. It challenges not only Husserl’s transcendentalism, but also what remains of it in Heidegger’s early thought, on the grounds that it is committed to the skeptical inference: Since we can always doubt any perception, we can always doubt perception as a whole. The rejection of such an implicit inference leads to a relational paradigm of (...) Being-in-the-World that differs from Heidegger’s on many points. (shrink)

Stage organise par le Centre d'etudes superieures de la Renaissance de Tours, sous la direction de Jean-Claude Margolin et tenu du 3 au 25 juillet.

This conception of natural kinds might be dubbed a 'structural kinds' view. It is the conception of kinds offered by ExtOSR within a Humean framework. To invoke structural kinds also means to invoke structural laws. For laws generalize over ...

Shows how to construct a coherence quasi-ordering that respects the claim that the more coherent a set of propositions is, the greater the degree of confidence ought to be in its content, ceteris paribus. Applies this result to the problem of scientific-theory choice.

Applies the models to the confirmation of scientific hypotheses by means of partially reliable test instruments. Shows that the variety-of-evidence thesis is false under certain plausible interpretations and assesses the Duhem–Quine thesis for positively relevant versus independent hypotheses and auxiliaries.

Presents some general reflections on the role and the challenges of probabilistic modelling in philosophy.

Introduces the topic of information-gathering from multiple independent sources through some well-known Genesis stories.

Shows how the degree of confidence that information from multiple sources is a function of the plausibility and the coherence of the information as well as of the reliability of the sources. There is a long-standing question in epistemology about how to construct a measure that yields a coherence ordering over sets of propositions and there are various proposals in the literature. Presents an impossibility result to the effect that there cannot exist such a measure. This has implications for the (...) coherence theory of justification. (shrink)

Introduces different interpretations of witness reliability into the models and constructs Bayesian-Network representations. Applies the models to Condorcet-style jury voting and Tversky and Kahneman’s Linda puzzle.

La désignation de risques comme problèmes publics ainsi que la sélection et la hiérarchisation de ces risques s’expliquent souvent de trois grandes façons : soit comme le résultat d’arbitrages opérés par les autorités publiques ; soit comme le résultat de confrontations entre « société civile » et autorités publiques ; soit encore comme le résultat de la manière dont de multiples acteurs définissent et construisent les problèmes. Une des questions qui se posent est celle du statut de ces explications mobilisées (...) par des acteurs et des chercheurs. Correspondent-elles à des modes d’analyses ou bien sont-elles avant tout des discours intégrant les contraintes rhétoriques propres à tout problème public faisant l’objet de nombreuses appropriations, comme c’est le cas aujourd’hui avec les risques collectifs ?The designation of risks as public problems as well as the selection and the grading of these risks are often explained in three great ways : either like the result of arbitrations operated by the public authorities ; either like the result of confrontations between « civil society », and public authorities ; or still as the result of the way in which multiple actors define and build the problems. One of the questions which arise is that of the status of these explanations mobilized by actors and researchers. Do they correspond to modes of analyses or are they above all speeches integrating the rhetorical constraints which are specific to any public problem being the subject of many appropriations, as it is the case today with collective risks ? (shrink)

Contemporary philosophy, from Kant through Bergson and Husserl to Heidegger, has assumed that time must be conceived as a fundamental determination of the subject: Time is not first in things but arises from actions, attitudes, or comportments through which a subject temporalizes mtime, expecting or remembering, anticipating the future or making a decision. Event and Time traces the genesis of this thesis through detailed, rigorous analyses of the philosophy of time in Plato, Aristotle, and Augustine, ultimately showing that, in the (...) development of metaphysics, the understanding of the temporal phenomenon as an inner-temporal phenomenon has made possible time's subjectivization. The book goes on to argue that time is in fact not thinkable according to metaphysical subjectivity. Instead, the guiding thread for the analysis of time must shift to the eventual hermeneutics of the human being, first developed in Event and World, and now deepened and completed in Event and Time. Romano's diptych makes a compelling, rigorous, and original philosophical contribution to the thinking of the event. (shrink)

In this introductory paper, I try to give an overview of the concept of normativity in its philosophical history and its contemporary interpretations and uses in different fields. From philosophy of logic and mathematics to philosophy of language and mind, and to philosophy of medicine and care, normativity is found as a key concept pointing at the possibility of scientific and technical progress and improvement of human life in the interaction between the individual and his environment.

This is a translation of an early essay by the German philosopher Nicolai Hartmann (1882–1950). In this 1923 essay Hartmann presents many of the fundamental ideas of his new critical ontology. He summarizes some of the main points of his critique of neo-Kantian epistemology, and provides the point of departure for his new approach in an extensive criticism of the errors of the classical ontological tradition. Some of these errors concern the definition of an ontological category or principle, (...) and others concern the relations among categories themselves. The outline for the new ontology is sketched through the correctives Hartmann appends to the treatment of each error, prefiguring his mature ontological system. (shrink)

L'idéal universaliste, qui a traversé les siècles jusqu'à aujourd'hui en surplombant les traditions intellectuelles tant chinoise qu'européenne, a façonné un certain nombre de nos représentations et imposé l'idée d'une antinomie entre ce qui relève de l'universel et ce qui renvoie à l'existence du particulier. Outre ce que, à bien y regarder, cette incompatibilité supposée peut avoir de paradoxal, divers épisodes chinois ou européens montrent que, au cours de sa très longue histoire, l'universalisme a aussi entretenu des relations équivoques avec des (...) créations historiques instituant des communautés particulières, telle la nation. Et ce sont ses rapports, tantôt connivents, tantôt antagoniques avec un ensemble de constructions mentales ou historiques particularisantes que l'auteure envisage en première partie. A partir du XVIIe siècle, les deux universalismes évoluent dans une certaine interaction, au gré des rencontres de leurs divers représentants ou de moments de proximité intellectuelle : c'est cette histoire de leurs relations, longue de plus de quatre siècles, que retrace la seconde partie. Le dialogue né de cette interaction, marqué par des méprises et incompréhensions, aura été quelque peu tortueux, mais néanmoins fructueux, dans la mesure où il aura favorisé une prise de conscience par chacun des deux universalismes... d'eux-mêmes. (shrink)

Édition commentée des deux fragments de manuscrits littéraires grecs découverts dans la trésorerie du palais d'Aï-Khanoum, dans un contexte daté de 145 av. J.-C. Ces manuscrits avaient été rédigés dans des officines méditerranéennes et sont paléographiquement datables entre le milieu du IIIe et le début du IIe s. av. J.-C. Le premier texte, rédigé sur papyrus, est un dialogue philosophique platonicien ou aristotélicien relatif à la théorie platonicienne des Idées ; le second, rédigé sur parchemin en trimètres iambiques, relève peut-être (...) du genre théâtral. Leur présence à Aï Khanoum atteste l'existence d'une bibliothèque dans le palais de cette cité. (shrink)

Samotność i tajemnica. Prolegomena do fenomenologii ludzkiej więzi (tłum. Marek Drwięga).

Based on a psychobiographical approach, this study addresses magical thinking across the life span of Paulo Coelho. Paulo Coelho, who was born in Brazil in the 1940s, has become one of the most sold and famous contemporary authors in the world. In his life, as well as in his books, which are mainly autobiographical accounts, magic and magical thinking, spirituality, meaningfulness, and the living of one’s dream, are key themes. The aim of this study was to explore magic and magical (...) thinking in Paulo Coelho’s life and creative works. The study uses a psychobiographical single case study approach within the methodological frame of Husserl’s phenomenology. The author, Paulo Coelho, was chosen as the subject of research. Documents providing both first person and third person perspectives were subjected to content analysis. The findings show that magical thinking played an important role in Coelho’s creative works and in his life, in the form, for example, of ascriptions of magic to key situations in his life, the performance of daily rituals, mystic interpretations of life events, and his deep religious faith. Magical thinking is usually regarded as indicative of pathological and inappropriate cognitive and psychological behaviour, especially when found in adults in a westernised culture. However, the analysis of Coelho’s life and works shows that magical thinking can be utilised creatively and be integrated into one’s life to enable personal development and growth while simultaneously providing fertile ground for creative production. In Paulo Coelho’s case, the intertwining of religion and magical thinking provided deep meaning that guided his personal development. (shrink)

This article focuses on systems psychodynamics and particularly on the CIBART-model which explores conflict, identity, boundary, authority, role and task and how these phenomena work out on an unconscious level. Therefore, this article presents empirical findings on CIBART in a German multinational engineering organization operating in South Africa. For this study, 16 managers where interviewed on their transformation toward Industry 4.0 with special interest in the interconnection how CIBART aspects play out in the South African context. Findings show that all (...) of the CIBART-phenomena are important during the transformation to more advanced technological levels and restructuring processes. Conclusions are drawn and recommendations are given how to deal with systems-psychodynamic influences within the organization. (shrink)

Résumé À partir de données expérimentales issues d’un jeu de la confiance répété, nous estimons des modèles structurels de formation des croyances permettant de distinguer les modes d’apprentissage des deux joueurs. Nous trouvons que les deux joueurs ne peuvent être décrits par le même mode d’apprentissage. Des simulations sur longue période montrent ensuite que l’interaction de ces deux types d’agents peut conduire à des issues contrastées.

The article looks at the varying forms taken by parenthood in different societies, past and present. It examines how it belatedly came to be defined by Lewis Morgan, in the context of our modern societies, in terms of an aristocratic and genetic conception, thus establishing a model which Lévi-Strauss unintentionally took to an aporia. Against such a schematic conceptualisation of parenthood, the article posits the material and sentimental links which grow from the responsibilities assumed for the material and educational needs (...) of minors by « parents » devoid of any genetic link to those who are dependent on their care. (shrink)

The cheerleader effect describes the phenomenon whereby faces are perceived as being more attractive when flanked by other faces than when they are perceived in isolation. At least four theories predict the cheerleader effect. Two visual memory processes could cause a cheerleader effect. First, visual information will sometimes be averaged in the visual memory: the averaging of faces could increase the perceived attractiveness of all the faces flanked by other faces. Second, information will often be combined into a higher-order concept. (...) This hierarchical encoding suggests that information processing causes faces to appear more attractive when flanked by highly attractive faces. Two further explanations posit that comparison processes cause the cheerleader effect. While contrast effects predict that a difference between the target face and the flanking faces causes the cheerleader effect due to comparison processes, a change in the evaluation mode, which alters the standard of comparison between joint and separate evaluation of faces, could be sufficient for producing a cheerleader effect. This leads to the prediction that even when there is no contrast between the attractiveness of the target face and the flanking faces, a cheerleader effect could occur. The results of one experiment support this prediction. The findings of this study have practical implications, such as for individuals who post selfies on social media. An individual’s face will appear more attractive in a selfie taken with people of low attractiveness than in a selfie without other people, even when all the faces have equally low levels of attractiveness. (shrink)

I argue that there are at least two kinds of tacit premises; describe a certain type of counterexample against the validity of arguments, and then use it to identify one kind of tacit premise. I distinguish two classes of tacit premises on the grounds that they are discovered or constructed differently, they have different roles in an argument or causal explanation, and have different logical relations to each other.

Showing that the premises of an argument are not sufficient for (viz., do not entail) a conclusion a conclusion involves citing a counterexample that would show the premises of the argument to be true and the conclusion false. This paper distinguishes counterexamples by analogy (an argument with the same form as argument against which it is advanced but where it is clearly the case that the premises are true and the conclusion is false), counterexamples by possible conjunction (a conjunction of (...) the premises and the negation of the conclusion), and counter-arguments (arguments directed against the truth of the conclusion). After detailing the logical differences between these concepts, the paper describes the pedagogical significance of this distinction and provides an assortment of test exercises for students. (shrink)

In many species of reptiles, sex is determined at fertilization by zygotic sex chromosome composition. In other species, including all crocodilians, most turtles and some lizards, sex is determined by temperature during the earlier stages of gonadal differentiation. The effects of exogenous estrogens, antiestrogens and aromatase inhibitors at different temperatures have unambiguously demonstrated the involvement of estrogens in sexual differentiation of the gonads. Aromatase is the enzyme that converts androgens to estrogens. Gonadal aromatase activity is well correlated with gonadal structure. (...) It increases exponentially in differentiating ovaries, whereas it remains low in differentiating testes. Moreover, there is a high correlation between the thermosensitive periods for both ovary differentiation and increase in aromatase activity. We suggest that a thermosensitive factor intervenes, directly or indirectly, in the transcriptional regulation of the aromatase gene in reptiles with temperature‐dependent sex determination. (shrink)