Women’s fertility is the focus of most demographic analyses, for in most mammals, and in many preindustrial societies, variance in male fertility, while an interesting biological phenomenon, is irrelevant. Yet in monogamous societies, the reproductive ecology of men, as well as that of women, is important is creating reproductive patterns. In nineteenth-century Sweden, the focus of this study, male reproductive ecology responded to resource conditions: richer men had more children than poorer men. Men’s fertility also interacted with local and (...) historical factors in complex ways to have significant impact on population growth. As a result, “the” demographic transition was local, and locally reversible, in Sweden. Results cannot be simply translated from nineteenth-century studies to current attempts to promote fertility decline, because today, male and female resource-fertility curves differ in shape, not only in magnitude. When we translate studies of fertility decline, it is important to study individual fertility and to discern whether, in any particular case, male and female patterns are similar. (shrink)

In this paper intergenerational dimensions of reproductive behavior are studied within the context of the experience of a mid-sized Spanish town just before and during the demographic transition. Different indicators of reproduction are used in bivariate and multivariate approaches. Fertility shows a small, often statistically significant intergenerational dimension, with stronger effects working through women and their mothers than those stemming from the families of their husbands. These effects are materialized mainly through duration-related fertility variables, are singularly absent for (...) variables such as age at first birth or birth intervals, and are much stronger in the case of firstborn daughters than with later siblings. There is a substantial increase in the strength of intergenerational effects during the course of the demographic transition, most visible in age at last birth and duration of reproduction (between women and their mothers), as well as in the effects working through the families of their husbands. These results underscore the on-going importance of biological dimensions of reproduction as well as the way attitudes toward reproduction are taught within the family. The changes identified in this study suggest that the transmission of values and attitudes became more important for reproductive outcomes during this period of demographic modernization. (shrink)

The hypothesis that family size limitation by parents enhances the upward mobility chances of their children in (post)industrial populations has a long-standing record in many disciplines, including sociology and economics, as well as evolutionary anthropology and social biology. Yet the empirical record supporting or contradicting the theory is surprisingly limited. The aim of this contribution is to develop a test of the effect of family size limitation on children’s intergenerational mobility. This test is applied to an urban population in Belgium (...) that was in the process of experiencing its demographic transition, including the decline of fertility, at the end of the 19th century. The results indicate that the effect of family size was strong, even after controlling for parental social status as well as birth order. Surprisingly, the effects of birth order and family size appear to be largely independent. (shrink)

This commentary suggests that there is more continuity in pre- and post-demographic transition populations with respect to grandparental investments than is assumed by Coall & Hertwig (C&H). Recent research employing high-quality data supports the claim that sex-biased grandparental investments are likely to exist in industrialized societies, and that the economic status of grandparents is related to their long-term fitness.

Demographic transition faced by modern economies, including China, are among the most important long-term socio-economic challenges. In 2022, China observed its population decline for the first time since the early 1960s. The low fertility rate was of critical importance. The unprecedented one-child policy is quite commonly indicated as the main reason for the low fertility rate. However, the departure from this restrictive policy and the actions introduced under the two-child policy implemented from 2016, and then the three-child policy (...) from mid-2021, have not brought an improvement in fertility rates. The aim of the paper is to answer the following research questions: Should the decline and persistent low fertility rate in China be attributed solely or mainly to the unprecedented one-child policy, which was in force for over three decades? Fertility transition in China is the effect of several factors and depends largely on the studied period. In the 1970s and 1980s, the government’s family policy was a key determinant of the decline in fertility. However, contrary to the prevailing belief about the determining influence of the one-child policy, the first stage of the implementation of the birth control policy, the Wan, Xi, Shao program, had a greater impact. Since the 1990s, the low fertility rate has been mainly explained by the extraordinary socio-economic changes and rapidly increasing prosperity of the Chinese people. Since the beginning of the 21st century, cultural changes resulting mainly from the integration of the Chinese economy with the global system have been crucial. Cultural changes have affected reproductive behaviour, marriage patterns, marriage postponement, birth postponement, fertility, and family size in Chinese society, which is observed below-replacement fertility. China’s demographic future depends on the fertility trajectory. However, due to the size of the population, but also the position of the Chinese economy in the global economic system, Chinese demographic transition may also bring significant consequences for the global economy. (shrink)

In this work, the evolution of demographic and health patterns in a Basque rural population from Spain is analysed, as they relate to progress in demographic and epidemiological transition. For this purpose, parochial record data on 13,298 births and 9215 deaths, registered during the 19th and 20th centuries (180090) resulting from cardiovascular diseases and malignant neoplasms (post-transition causes). This last point is in contrast with observations from the first four decades of the 20th century, when infectious (...) diseases and respiratory ailments were determining factors in mortality among this population. The data provided by the study of the variation over time in demographic and health patterns indicate that reducing the risk of mortality is one of the most important preconditions for fertility decline. (shrink)

Current local and national demographic trends have deepened the existing and formed new global demographic processes that have received a new historical reasoning that requires deep scientific research taking into account the influence of the multifactorial global dimension of the modern society development. The purpose of the article is to study the development of global demographic processes and to define the causes of their occurrence, manifestations, implications and prospects for implementation in the first half of the 21st (...) century. The authors have identified and characterized four global demographic processes, namely population growth, migration, increase of tourism, and change in population structure. It is projected that in the 30’s of the 21st century, the number and growth rates of the world population will reach the objective growth and these dynamics over the next two decades will begin to change in the direction of reducing the growth rates, which will lead to gradual stabilization, and eventually reduce the size of the world population. By the middle of the 21st century, one can observe the preservation of the growth rates of international and domestic migration, the growth of international migration flows from the South to the North and from the East to the West, the strengthening of new economically developed centers of gravity (Canada, Australia and New Zealand), the increase in migration of rural population to cities, as well as urbanization and activation of the metropolises development. The share of international tourists in comparison with the world population will be constantly increasing, and the annual growth rate of the number of international tourists will significantly depend on the world economy and may vary at the several percent level. Permanent change will occur in the age, religious-cultural and socio-economic structure of the population. (shrink)

In this article, we report the results of a survey of North American adults conducted between March 24 and 30, 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Respondents completed the COVID-TIS and the 21-item Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale, indicated their level of COVID-infection concern for themselves and close others, and provided demographic information. The results indicated: during its early stage, the pandemic produced only moderate levels of material and psychological change; the pandemic produced mild to moderate levels (...) of psychological distress; respondents who lost their jobs as a result of the pandemic experienced more change and more psychological distress than those who did not, and younger respondents and less well-educated ones experienced more psychological distress than older respondents. Unexpectedly, respondents indicated that they were more concerned that friends and family members would become infected with COVID-19 than that they would be. We conclude by speculating that these results are driven less by the immediate changes brought about by the pandemic and more by uncertainty concerning its long-term economic and social impact. (shrink)

Globally, mortality and fertility rates generally fall as resource abundance increases. This pattern represents an evolutionary paradox insofar as resource-rich ecological contexts can support higher numbers of offspring, a component of biological fitness. This paradox has not been resolved, in part because the relationships between fertility, life history strategies, reproductive behavior, and socioeconomic conditions are complex and cultural-historically contingent. We aim to understand how we might make sense of this paradox in the specific context of late-twentieth-century, mid–demographic transition (...) Chile. We use distribution-specific generalized linear models to analyze associations between fertility-related life-history traits—number of offspring, ages at first and last reproduction, average interbirth interval, and average number of live births per reproductive span year—and socioeconomic position (SEP) using data from a cohort of 6,802 Chilean women born between 1961 and 1970. We show that Chilean women of higher SEP have shorter average interbirth intervals, more births per reproductive span year, later age at first reproduction, earlier ages at last reproduction, and, ultimately, fewer children than women of lower SEP. Chilean women of higher SEP consolidate childbearing over a relatively short time span in the middle of their reproductive careers, whereas women of lower SEP tend to reproduce over the entirety of their reproductive lifespans. These patterns may indicate that different SEP groups follow different pathways toward declining fertility during the demographic transition, reflecting different life-history trade-offs in the process. (shrink)

This paper contributes to the understanding on the reasons that lead to entrepreneurship in other countries. We focus on expat-preneurs, those who decided to undertake business opportunities in other countries (before or after settling there). Using comparison analysis and logistic regression, we examine pre-departure and transitioned expat-preneurs’ demographic characteristics and push-pull factors that lead them to expatriate. From a survey conducted in 2015-2016 of 5,532 Lithuanians expatriated in 24 countries, a sample of 308 respondents with their own businesses abroad (...) was selected. This research contributes to the literature on expat-preneurs, with empirical evidence on pre-departure and transitioned self-initiated (SI) expat-preneurs. The results revealed that demographic features matter when studying such global entrepreneurs. It is a process experienced differently by males and females and, as such, it can be considered as gender selective. Thus, more pre-departure expat-preneurs are male than female, but there is a growing number of female transitioned expat-preneurs. Pre-departure expat-preneurs are older and less educated than transitioned ones and have been pushed to move abroad by issues such as political corruption or a non-supportive tax system, and are attracted by a higher possibility of self-realisation as well as the prestige of the host country. Meanwhile, transitioned expat-preneurs have been pushed to emigrate due to family reasons or too few employment opportunities in their home country. (shrink)

There are very significant conceptual links between theories of social macroevolution and theories of the World System development. It is shown that the growth of the World System complexity and integrity can be traced through a system of phase transitions of macroevolution. The first set of phase transition is connected with the agrarian, industrial, and information-scientific revolutions (that are interpreted as changes of “production principles”). The second set consists of phase transitions within one production principle. These phase transitions are (...) analyzed on the basis of the World System urbanization dynamics, but they can be traced with respect to the other (cultural, economic, technological, demographic, political, etc.) dimensions of the World System development. (shrink)

Recent social developments, such as demographic change, skill shortages and new medical technologies, have necessitated a transition in the traditional roles of health-care professions. New forms of division of labour and inter-professional health-care education are emerging while at the same time ethical challenges, such as corruption and conflicts of interest, have to be mastered. This book addresses historical, conceptual and empirical aspects of professionalism and inter-professionalism in health care from an international and interdisciplinary perspective. The work is divided (...) into five sections: historical and societal aspects of health care professions; learning and teaching medical professionalism; transformation of health care professions; professional leadership and team decision-making in health care; and ethical challenges to health care professionalism. The final chapter integrates the main ideas and perspectives on health-care professionalism which have been developed throughout the book and highlights how the work in the diverse disciplines is interrelated. The book will be a valuable reference for the many researchers and students with an interest in medical ethics, professionalism and comparative systems of healthcare. (shrink)

SummaryFrom 1996 to 2006, Nepal experienced a substantial fertility decline, with the total fertility rate dropping from 4.6 to 3.1 births per woman. This study examines the associations between progress towards universal primary and secondary schooling and fertility decline in rural Nepal. Several hypotheses regarding mechanisms through which education affects current fertility behaviour are tested, including: the school environment during women's childhood; current availability of schools; knowledge of educational costs; and women's own educational attainment. Data for the analysis come from (...) the 2003–04 Nepal Living Standards Survey, a nationally representative random sample of households, which includes detailed data on fertility, household expenditure, educational attainment, demographic characteristics and the use of social services. Census and administrative data are also used to construct district-level gross enrolment ratios for primary and secondary schools during the women's childhood. Discrete dependent variable modelling techniques are used to estimate the effects of the following variables on the probability of women giving birth in a given year: district-level gross enrolment ratios for primary and secondary schools during women's childhood; having had a child previously in school; women's own educational level; current school availability; and other covariates. Separate models are estimated for the overall sample of rural women of reproductive age, and for parity-specific sub-samples. The results suggest that district-level gross enrolment ratios for secondary schools and, in some instances, having had a previous child enrolled in school are significant determinants of fertility in rural areas. These results are highly independent of women's own educational levels. Overall, the results suggest that, in the rural Nepal context, mass schooling influences the fertility transition through both community- and household-level pathways. (shrink)

With a population of over 1.3 billion, China is the most populous country in the world. It is facing an acute aging population problem, with a projected 440 million residents over age 60 and 101 million over age 80 by 2050. Furthermore, rapid industrialization and urbanization in China have resulted in serious air pollution and associated public health problems, including an increase in respiratory diseases and cancers. These and other demographic trends have generated concerns about the cost of health (...) care and its impact on population health. In recent years, the Chinese government has invested heavily in the fields of translational research and biobanking with the hope that research in both fields can yield effective solutions to improve the public’s health and quality of life. The establishment of national biobanks was identified as a major initiative needed for the biomedical industry in the 12th Five-Year National Development Plan of Strategic Emerging Industries promulgated by the State Council in 2012. (shrink)

With a population of over 1.3 billion, China is the most populous country in the world. It is facing an acute aging population problem, with a projected 440 million residents over age 60 and 101 million over age 80 by 2050. Furthermore, rapid industrialization and urbanization in China have resulted in serious air pollution and associated public health problems, including an increase in respiratory diseases and cancers. These and other demographic trends have generated concerns about the cost of health (...) care and its impact on population health. In recent years, the Chinese government has invested heavily in the fields of translational research and biobanking with the hope that research in both fields can yield effective solutions to improve the public’s health and quality of life. The establishment of national biobanks was identified as a major initiative needed for the biomedical industry in the 12th Five-Year National Development Plan of Strategic Emerging Industries promulgated by the State Council in 2012. (shrink)

ABSTRACT The disparity in the venezuelan demographic transition is a fact known by experts. On this setting, there are four municipalities in Falcón State with a high elder population, one of them is Tocópero. This research had as general objectives to study the estimations of demographic risks and the social politics for elders, people who are 75 and more, from Tocópero Municipality, considering that specialists indicate that, once the demographic oldness has arrived, it is important to (...) study thoroughly the elder population in order to design relevant politics and programs, taking into consideration that it is a vulnerable group. It was an exploratory and descriptive study, with a field-no experimental-transectional design. The sample was intentional. Structured interviews and questionnaires were applied to elders and municipal officials. The data processing was carried out by using quantitative methods. The conclusions indicated that the elder population in Tocópero Municipality had a marked female tendency. In general terms, the adverse effects associated to the estimations of demographic risk were not present in the studied sample. There was no relation between the demographic reality of this municipality and the social politics and programs implemented. The programs concentrated the elder and suppressed the intergenerational contact; the centralism was the key element to understand the present politics of the Venezuelan state towards the oldness. The demographic oldness of this municipality was determined by the way in which the birth of the municipality was approved. (shrink)

This chapter contains sections titled: The Malthusian Warning “Population Control” and its Critics “Leveling Off”: The Demographic Transition The Ethics of Population Programs Optimal Population Size: Fewer with More, or More with Less? A Thought‐Experiment About a Solution to the Population Problem References.

What motivates grandparents to their altruism? We review answers from evolutionary theory, sociology, and economics. Sometimes in direct conflict with each other, these accounts of grandparental investment exist side-by-side, with little or no theoretical integration. They all account for some of the data, and none account for all of it. We call for a more comprehensive theoretical framework of grandparental investment that addresses its proximate and ultimate causes, and its variability due to lineage, values, norms, institutions (e.g., inheritance laws), and (...) social welfare regimes. This framework needs to take into account that the demographic shift to low fecundity and mortality in economically developed countries has profoundly altered basic parameters of grandparental investment. We then turn to the possible impact of grandparental acts of altruism, and examine whether benefits of grandparental care in industrialized societies may manifest in terms of less tangible dimensions, such as the grandchildren's cognitive and verbal ability, mental health, and well-being. Although grandparents in industrialized societies continue to invest substantial amounts of time and money in their grandchildren, we find a paucity of studies investigating the influence that this investment has on grandchildren in low-risk family contexts. Under circumstances of duress there is converging evidence that grandparents can provide support that helps to safeguard their children and grandchildren against adverse risks. We conclude by discussing the role that grandparents could play in what has been referred to as Europe's demographic suicide. (shrink)

Ovaj rad opisuje promene naucne paradigme u demografiji do kojih je doslo u kontekstu drustveno-politickih procesa tokom zadnje dve decenije dvadesetog veka. Promena se posmatra u domenu analize reproduktivnog ponasanja gde je, kako tvrdi autorka, teorija demografske tranzicije ostala dominantan okvir analize ali je prednost dobila njena modifikovana verzija koja primat daje idejnim u odnosu na struktrualne varijable u objasnjavanju reproduktivnog ponasanja; i u domenu socijalne politike, gde je, po recima autorke, napusten koncept planiranja porodice a na njegovo mesto stupio (...) koncept populacione politike. Autorka, medjutim, tvrdi da alarmirajuca upozorenja i ostra retorika o populacionim problemima nisu doveli do formulisanja specificnih mera populacione politike te da su demografski diskursi koji su u to vreme prepravili javni prostor bili mnogo znacajniji za politiku identiteta - nacionalnog i rodnog - nego za socijalnu politiku. (shrink)

This response outlines more reasons why we need the integrative framework of grandparental investments and intergenerational transfers that we advocated in the target article. We discusses obstacles that stand in the way of such a framework and of a better understanding of the effects of grandparenting in the developed world. We highlight new research directions that have emerged from the commentaries, and we end by discussing some of the things in our target article about which we may have been wrong.

Under the Second Demographic Transition, alternative forms of living arrangement are on the rise. The aim of this article is to compare quality of life in children living in married and cohabiting families. We present the results of representative research conducted in Slovakia in 2018 (N = 1,010 respondents). We tested whether children brought up in traditional married families had better material resources and healthcare, fewer behavioural problems, better peer relations and spent more leisure time with their parents (...) than children brought up by cohabiting parents. We also investigated whether number of children in the family and net monthly household income affected the children’s quality of life. The results show that there were almost no differences in quality of life between children brought up by married and by cohabiting parents and that number of children in the family and level of net monthly household income affected only the child’s material resources. (shrink)

The cultural norms of traditional societies encourage behavior that is consistent with maximizing reproductive success but those of modern post-demographic transition societies do not. Newson et al (2005) proposed that this might be because interaction between kin is relatively less frequent in modern social networks. Assuming that people’s evaluations of reproductive decisions are influenced by a desire to increase their inclusive fitness, they will be inclined to prefer their kin to make fitness-enhancing choices. Such a preference will encourage (...) the emergence of pronatal cultural norms if social networks are dense with kin. Less pronatal norms will emerge if contact between kin makes up a small proportion of social interactions. This article reports evidence based on role-play studies that supports the assumption of the kin influence hypothesis that evaluations of reproductive decisions are influenced by a desire to increase inclusive fitness. It also presents a cultural evolutionary model demonstrating the long-term effect of declining kin interaction if people are more likely to encourage fitness-enhancing choices when interacting with their kin than with nonrelatives. D 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (shrink)

This article provides an overview of a number of research studies conducted within the field of parenthood and reproduction in a variety of Western cultures, including Slovakia and the countries of Eastern Europe. The main aim of this overview is to analyse two key indicators on Second Demographic Transition: delaying marriage and parenthood until later on in life and the growth in cohabitation as an alternative living arrangement and childbearing as part of that. The author points out that (...) the majority of parents opt to have a first child and this brings normative and emotional fulfilment. Most young people do not reject this, but simply postpone it until later on in life. The hypothesis is postulated that the decision on whether to have further children is to a larger extent rationally based and is more dependent on weighing up the incentives available from the state. The article emphasises, on the basis of a comparison of the results of various empirical studies, that the same patterns of reproductive behaviour can produce markedly different consequences and outcomes within various subgroups of the population. It is recommended that current research into parenthood and reproduction should be extended so that studies are conducted into similar groups within subpopulations across different countries—in contrast to the current prevailing research that is focused on single countries or in comparing different countries as a whole. It is also recommended that the scope of the research be extended to compare a number of different subpopulations with similar value and life-style configurations as opposed to the majority of the current narrowly-focused approaches that concentrate on examining the differences in reproductive behaviour patterns of a section of the population selected on the basis of education. (shrink)

For most of the vast span of human history, economic growth was all but nonexistent. Then, about two centuries ago, some nations began to emerge from this epoch of economic stagnation, experiencing sustained economic growth that led to significant increases in standards of living and profoundly altered the level and distribution of wealth, population, education, and health across the globe. The question ever since has been--why? This is the first book to put forward a unified theory of economic growth that (...) accounts for the entire growth process, from the dawn of civilization to today. Oded Galor, who founded the field of unified growth theory, identifies the historical and prehistorical forces behind the differential transition timing from stagnation to growth and the emergence of income disparity around the world. Galor shows how the interaction between technological progress and population ultimately raised the importance of education in coping with the rapidly changing technological environment, brought about significant reduction in fertility rates, and enabled some economies to devote greater resources toward a steady increase in per capita income, paving the way for sustained economic growth. Presents a unified theory of economic growth from the dawn of civilization to today Explains the worldwide disparities in living standards and population we see today Provides a comprehensive overview of the three phases of the development process Analyzes the Malthusian theory and its empirical support Examines theories of demographic transition and their empirical significance Explores the interaction between economic development and human evolution. (shrink)

The focus of this work is the analysis of changes in completed family size and possible determinants of that size over time, in an attempt to characterize the evolution of reproductive patterns during the demographic transition. With this purpose in mind, time trends are studied in relation to the mean number of live births per family (as an indirect measure of fertility), using family reconstitution techniques to trace the reproductive history of each married woman. The population surveyed is (...) a Spanish rural community called Lanciego, located at the southern end of the province of Alava (Basque Country). A total of 24,510 parish records of baptisms, marriages and burials made between 1800 and 1969 were examined to obtain the demographic data set. For each reconstituted family, the variables included in the study were the number of live births per family or family size (FAMS), year of marriage (YEAR), age at marriage of both partners (AMAN, AWOM), wife’s age at the end of marriage (WEND), duration of marriage (MARD), age at first maternity (A1CH), length of reproductive span (REPS) and number of children dying before their first anniversary (MINF). Through a principal component analysis, three factors were found that explained more than 75% of the total variance. Association of variables in factors I and III was particularly useful in characterizing the variability of mean family size in pre-transitional, transitional and post-transitional cohorts. During demographic transition, a decreasing trend is observed in the variables FAMS, REPS and MINF, while variables AWOM, AMAN, WEND and A1CH show a tendency to increase over the 20th century. Results obtained by multiple regression analysis confirm that the best predictors of family size (dependent variable) were REPS and MINF, which between them explained over 85% of the total variation in FAMS (R2=0·853). In Lanciego, birth control seems to be present on the evidence of an increase in age at first maternity and a decrease in age at last parturition, indicating that the beginning of the reproductive span is delayed and its end is brought forward. Interaction between family size and infant mortality is discussed in the light of various hypotheses, including replacement of descendants, the so-called biological effect and the theory of r and k selection. (shrink)

Late in a career of more than sixty years, Thomas Burch, an internationally known social demographer, undertook a wide-ranging methodological critique of demography. This open access volume contains a selection of resulting papers, some previously unpublished, some published but not readily accessible [from past meetings of The International Union for the Scientific Study of Population and its research committees, or from other small conferences and seminars]. Rejecting the idea that demography is simply a branch of applied statistics, his work views (...) it as an autonomous and complete scientific discipline. When viewed from the perspective of modern philosophy of science, specifically the semantic or model-based school, demography is a balanced discipline, with a rich body of techniques and data, but also with more and better theories than generally recognized. As demonstrated in this book, some demographic techniques can also be seen as theoretical models, and some substantive/behavioral models, commonly rejected as theory because of inconsistent observations, are now seen as valuable theoretical models, for example demographic transition theory. This book shows how demography can build a strong theoretical edifice on its broad and deep empirical foundation by adoption of the model-based approach to science. But the full-fruits of this approach will require demographers to make greater use of computer modeling [both macro- and micro-simulation], in the statement and manipulation of theoretical ideas, as well as for numerical computation. This book is open access under a CC BY license. (shrink)

We are living through a demographic transition from a world in which there were lots of young people and very few older adults to one in which the numbers in these age groups are becoming more evenly balanced. One reason for this is that more of us are living into our seventies, eighties, nineties, and beyond. That is the good news. Unfortunately, the chance of developing chronic illnesses (including diabetes, arthritis, and dementia) is typically higher for people in (...) these older age groups than for those who are younger. Because we do not know how to cure these illnesses, many of us will spend at least some of this extra time with one or more chronic illness. While we are more likely than in the past to live into older age, we are likely to be living with illness when we get there. That raises a challenge: how should we respond to this change? (shrink)

Not by Genes Alone excellently explains Peter J. Richerson and Robert Boyd's important ideas about human gene-culture co-evolution to a broader audience but remains short of a larger vision of civilization. Several decades ago Ralph Burhoe had seen that fertile possibility in Richerson and Boyd's work. I suggest getting past present reductionistic customs to a scientific perspective having an integral place for virtue. Subsystem agency is part of this view, as is the driving role of abundance, whose ultimate origins are (...) in the mysterious, quintessentially energetic Big Bang. The free-rider problem may not impede higher social organization as inexorably as Richerson and Boyd believe; "the tragedy" of enervating leakage from "the commons" may often be less influential than an invigorating flow of externalities to the commons. Eukaryotic origins mark the origin of inevitable wider sharing as higher living systems evolve. I use a metaphor of flesh and spirit in drawing a parallel between that turning point and the wide sharing that occurs in civilization. This helps solve the enigma of the demographic transition. Why do so many productive participants in first-world societies severely restrict their selfish-gene reproduction to below replacement birth rate? It is not because culture is maladaptive but because civilization's brain and womb have become partially differentiated in distinct populations. Considerations of social boundaries, myths of sacrifice, and human creativity help in understanding how human social evolution taps potentials present in reality. Human beings' diverse vigorous activities—the organized ones and the inadvertent ones, the wise and the foolish, the good and the bad, the carefully thoughtful and the merely playful—provide the ground of being, or primordial soup, for cultural entities that transcend our intentions. If we have it right for the most part and are fortunate, we will continue to emerge at higher levels. (shrink)

The article considers the changing position of women and the family from the Second World War until today using the UK as its example. It offers a theoretical perspective by setting out to examine the possibility that the rise of second-wave feminism both reflected and spearheaded an aspect of demographic transition to non-replacement populations. It considers the tension between the formation of ‘sexual difference’ to enable reproduction and what it calls the ‘engendering of gender’ in lateral relations which (...) are indifferent to procreation. With the achievements of feminism as a political vanguard and the demographic transition as its socioeconomic base, women were no longer defined by the family; their definition ceased to depend on procreation. The article proposes that the new use of the term ‘gender’ entered the political arena to become a key concept of feminism to indicate non-procreative sexuality and sexual relations that need not be heterosexual or biologically procreative. Judith Butler’s well-known suggestion that ‘gender’ troubles the status quo in a revolutionary manner cannot be sustained. Rather than disturbing the universe, the advent of ‘gender’ reflects the transition to a new demographic order. (shrink)

Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant. The growth of the number of people expresses the sum outcome of all economic, social and cultural activities that comprise human history. Demographic data in a concise and quantitative way describe this process in the past and present. By applying the concepts of nonlinear dynamics and synergetics, it is possible to work out a mathematical model for a phenomenological description of the global demographic process and project its (...) trends into the future. Assuming self-similarity as the dynamic principle of development, growth can be described over practically the whole of human history, with a growth rate proportional to the square of the number of people. This is due to a collective interaction, responsible for the growth of human numbers, as the result of the informational nature of development. The large parameter of the theory and the effective size of a coherent population group is of the order of 105. As the microscopic parameter of the phenomenology, the human life span is introduced into the theory. Estimates of the beginning of human development 4-5 million years ago and of the total number of people who have ever lived since then ≈ 100 billion are made. In the framework of the model, large scale cycles defined by history and anthropology are shown to follow an exponential pattern of growth, culminating in the demographic transition, a veritable revolution when population growth is to stabilize at 10 to 12 billion. (shrink)

This paper discusses to what extent, if any, recent street uprisings in Iran have been fuelled by gender inequalities; and, what the legal challenges of transforming such gender equality demands into the constitution are. I argue that a demographic transition that commenced two decades ago in Iran changed the status of women in family and society. Such a transition has unavoidably increased the presence of women in the public sphere and challenged gender presumptions within the law. To (...) give a constitutional response to such demands, I argue, the Iranian Constitution must re-examine the correlation between women and men as biological and/or social groups, and the relationship among women themselves as a group consisting of diverse identities. Moreover, equal attention must be paid to women’s norm, diversity, and agency. (shrink)

This article explores a promising theoretical approach for reassessing the relationship between inequality and economic growth. The article draws some insights from the influential inverted U-curve hypothesis originally advanced by Simon Kuznets, but drastically recasts the original arguments by shifting two fundamental premises. First, retaining Kuznets’s emphasis on the importance of economic growth in generating demographic transitions between existing and new distributional arrays, we argue that a “constant drive toward inequality” results after replacing a Schumpeterian notion of “creative destruction” (...) for the dualistic assumptions in Kuznets’s model. Second, while Kuznets devoted considerable attention to the impact of institutions on distributional outcomes, we argue that institutions should be understood as relational and global mechanisms of regulation, operating within countries while simultaneously shaping interactions and flows between nations. The article argues that economic growth, unfolding through institutions embedded in time and space, produces a constant drive towards inequality that results in a multiple and overlapping matrix of distributional arrays, an overall income distribution (e.g., within and between countries) that is both systemic and historical. (shrink)

Today a change is imperative in approaching global problems: what is needed is not arm-twisting and power politics, but searching for ways of co-evolution in the complex social and geopolitical systems of the world. The modern theory of self-organization of complex systems provides us with an understanding of the possible forms of coexistence of heterogeneous social and geopolitical structures at different stages of development regarding the different paths of their sustainable co-evolutionary development. The theory argues that the evolutionary channel to (...) the observed increasing complexity is extremely narrow and only certain discrete spectra of relatively stable self-maintained structures are feasible in complex systems. There exists a restricted set of ways of assembling a complex evolutionary whole from diverse parts. The law of nonlinear synthesis of complex structures reads: the integration of structures in more complex ones occurs due to the establishment of a common tempo of their evolution. On the basis of the theory, we can see not only desirable but also attainable futures. (shrink)

Modern industrialized populations lack the strong positive correlations between wealth and reproductive success that characterize most traditional societies. While modernization has brought about substantial increases in personal wealth, fertility in many developed countries has plummeted to the lowest levels in recorded human history. These phenomena contradict evolutionary and economic models of the family that assume increasing wealth reduces resource competition between offspring, favoring high fertility norms. Here, we review the hypothesis that cultural modernization may in fact establish unusually intense reproductive (...) trade-offs in wealthy relative to impoverished strata, favoring low fertility. We test this premise with British longitudinal data (the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children), exploring maternal self-perceptions of economic hardship in relation to increasing family size and actual socioeconomic status. Low-income and low-education-level mothers perceived the greatest economic costs associated with raising two versus one offspring. However, for all further increases to family size, reproduction appears most expensive for relatively wealthy and well-educated mothers. We discuss our results and review current literature on the long-term consequences of resource dilution in modern families. (shrink)

Historical demographic research shows that the factors influencing mortality risk are labile across time and space. This is particularly true for datasets that span societal transitions. Here, we seek to understand how marriage, migration, and the local economy influenced mortality dynamics in a rapidly changing environment characterized by high in-migration and male-biased sex ratios. Mortality records were extracted from a compendium of historical vital records for the Baja California peninsula (Mexico). Our sample consists of 1,201 mortality records spanning AD (...) 1835–1900. Findings from Cox proportional hazard models indicate that (1) marriage was associated with a protective effect for both sexes; (2) residing in a mining town was associated with higher mortality for men, but not women; (3) migration was associated with decreased mortality risk for women, but not men; and (4) the risk of mortality increased in the face of infectious disease, but decreased over time. Despite the early initiation of reproduction for women, marriage had a protective effect, likely because marriage linked women to resources. Although mining boomtowns were associated with elevated risk factors generally, only men experienced greater mortality risk, likely due to dangerous working conditions that women did not experience. Last, female, but not male, migrants experienced greater longevity, possibly because exposure to harsh labor conditions eroded the protective effect of selection bias for men. Together, these results shed light on an understudied historical population and broaden our understanding of demographic dynamics in preindustrial settings. (shrink)

The demographic and epidemiological transitions are driving pharmaceutical expenditures up in Latin American and the Caribbean, with much of the cost falling on households. The domestic development and manufacturing of bio-similars could make medicines more affordable.

This study investigated the effects of internal and demographic variables on civic development in late adolescence using the construct civic purpose. We conducted surveys on civic engagement with 480 high school seniors, and surveyed them again two years later. Using multivariate regression and linear mixed models, we tested the main effects of civic purpose dimensions (beyond-the-self motivation, future civic intention), ethnicity, and education on civic development from Time 1 to Time 2. Results showed that while there is an overall (...) decrease in civic engagement in the transition out of high school, both internal and social factors protected participants from steep civic decline. Interaction effects varied. Ethnicity and education interacted in different ways with the dimensions of civic purpose to predict change in traditional and expressive political engagement, and community service engagement. (shrink)

Until relatively recently, it was often supposed that changes in the material record of hominin life indexed advances in hominin cognitive sophistication in a relatively direct way. In particular, the “Upper Paleolithic Transition”—an apparently abrupt increase in the complexity and disparity of our material culture—was thought to signal the arrival of the fully human mind. While the idea of a direct relationship between material complexity and cognitive sophistication still has some defenders, this view has largely been abandoned. It is (...) now widely appreciated that aspects of ancient hominins’ demographic and social organization have a powerful influence both on the material culture they need and the material culture they can sustain. But if this more nuanced view is right, what does the deep material record tell us about the evolution of hominin cognition? I explore that question in this article. (shrink)