Multiple cortical areas of the human brain motor system interact coherently in the low frequency range (< 0.1 Hz), even in the absence of explicit tasks. Following stroke, cortical interactions are functionally disturbed. How these interactions are affected and how the functional organization is regained from rehabilitative treatments as people begin to recover motor behaviors has not been systematically studied. We recorded the intrinsic functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) signals from 30 participants: 17 young healthy controls and 13 aged stroke (...) survivors. Stroke participants underwent mental practice (MP) or both mental practice and physical therapy (MP + PT) within 14-51 days following stroke. We investigated the network activity of five core areas in the motor-execution network, consisting of the left primary motor area (LM1), the right primary motor area (RM1), the left pre-motor cortex (LPMC), the right pre-motor cortex (RPMC) and the supplementary motor area (SMA). We discovered that (i) the network activity dominated in the frequency range 0.06 Hz – 0.08 Hz for all the regions, and for both able-bodied and stroke participants (ii) the causal information flow between the regions: LM1 and SMA, RPMC and SMA, RPMC and LM1, SMA and RM1, SMA and LPMC, was reduced significantly for stroke survivors (iii) the flow did not increase significantly after MP alone and (iv) the flow among the regions during MP+PT increased significantly. We also found that sensation and motor scores were significantly higher and correlated with directed functional connectivity measures when the stroke-survivors underwent MP+PT but not MP alone. The findings provide evidence that a combination of mental practice and physical therapy can be an effective means of treatment for stroke survivors to recover or regain the strength of motor behaviors, and that the spectra of causal information flow can be used as a reliable biomarker for evaluating rehabilitation in stroke survivors. (shrink)

The total electron content in the ionosphere widely influences Global Navigation Satellite Systems especially for critical applications by inducing localized positional errors in the GNSS measurements. These errors can be mitigated by measuring TEC from stations located around the world at various temporal and spatial scales and using them for advanced forecasting of TEC. The TEC can be used as a tool in understanding space weather phenomena such as geomagnetic storms which cause disruptions in the ionosphere. This paper examines the (...) causal relationship between perturbations in TEC caused by geomagnetic storms. The causality between two geomagnetic indices auroral electrojet and disturbed storm index and TEC is investigated using Granger causality at two low-latitude stations, Bangalore and Hyderabad. The outcomes of this study strengthen the regional understanding and modeling of ionospheric parameters which can contribute towards the global efforts for modeling and reducing the ionospheric effects on trans-ionospheric communication and navigation. The causal inferences combined with the data-driven model can be useful in identifying the correct and informative physical quantities to improve the forecasting models. (shrink)

We describe a unification of old and recent ideas for formulating graphical models to explain time series data, including Granger causality, semi-automated search procedures for graphical causal models, modeling of contemporaneous influences in times series, and heuristic generalized additive model corrections to linear models. We illustrate the procedures by finding a structure of exogenous variables and mediating variables among time series of remote geospatial indices of ocean surface temperatures and pressures. The analysis agrees with known exogenous drivers of (...) the indices, not assumed in the analysis. Automated search applied to the residuals after regressing each series on its lags and the lags of its Granger causes yields a graphical model of “comtemporaneous” causal relations identical with the qualitative graphical relations from the time series. A similar analysis produces reasonable results when applied to candidate climate indices obtained by a clustering method from sea surface temperature and sea level pressure data. (shrink)

Recent research into how musicians coordinate their expressive timing, phrasing, articulation, dynamics, and other stylistic characteristics during performances has highlighted the role of predictive processes, as musicians must anticipate how their partners will play in order to be together. Several studies have used information flow techniques such as Granger causality to show that upcoming movements of a musician can be predicted from immediate past movements of fellow musicians. Although musicians must move to play their instruments, a major goal (...) of music making is to create a joint interpretation through the sounds they produce. Yet, information flow techniques have not been applied previously to examine the role that fellow musicians' sound output plays in these predictive processes and whether this changes as they learn to play together. In the present experiment, we asked professional violinists to play along with recordings of two folk pieces, each eight times in succession, and compared the amplitude envelopes of their performances with those of the recordings using Granger causality to measure information flow and cross-correlation to measure similarity and synchronization. In line with our hypotheses, our measure of information flow was higher from the recordings to the performances than vice versa, and decreased as the violinists became more familiar with the recordings over trials. This decline in information flow is consistent with a gradual shift from relying on auditory cues to predict the recording to relying on an internally-based (learned) model built through repetition. There was also evidence that violinists became more synchronized with the recordings over trials. These results shed light on the planning and learning processes involved in the aligning of expressive intentions in group music performance and lay the groundwork for the application of Granger causality to investigate information flow through sound in more complex musical interactions. (shrink)

We describe a unification of old and recent ideas for formulating graphical models to explain time series data, including Granger causality, semi-automated search procedures for graphical causal models, modeling of contemporaneous influences in times series, and heuristic generalized additive model corrections to linear models. We illustrate the procedures by finding a structure of exogenous variables and mediating variables among time series of remote geospatial indices of ocean surface temperatures and pressures. The analysis agrees with known exogenous drivers of (...) the indices, not assumed in the analysis. Automated search applied to the residuals after regressing each series on its lags and the lags of its Granger causes yields a graphical model of “comtemporaneous” causal relations identical with the qualitative graphical relations from the time series. A similar analysis produces reasonable results when applied to candidate climate indices obtained by a clustering method from sea surface temperature and sea level pressure data. (shrink)

Tianjaou Chu, David Danks, and Clark Glymour. Data Driven Methods for Nonlinear Granger Causality: Climate Teleconnection Mechanisms.

Understanding the neural basis of schizophrenia (SZ) is important for shedding light on the neurobiological mechanisms underlying this mental disorder. Structural and functional alterations in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), hippocampus, and medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) have been implicated in the neurobiology of SZ. However, the effective connectivity among them in SZ remains unclear. The current study investigated how neuronal pathways involving these regions were affected in first-episode SZ using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Forty-nine patients (...) with a first-episode of psychosis and diagnosis of SZ—according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, Text Revision—were studied. Fifty healthy controls (HCs) were included for comparison. All subjects underwent resting state fMRI. We used spectral dynamic causal modeling (DCM) to estimate directed connections among the bilateral ACC, DLPFC, hippocampus, and MPFC. We characterized the differences using Bayesian parameter averaging (BPA) in addition to classical inference (t-test). In addition to common effective connectivity in these two groups, HCs displayed widespread significant connections predominantly involved in ACC not detected in SZ patients, but SZ showed few connections. Based on BPA results, SZ patients exhibited anterior cingulate cortico-prefrontal-hippocampal hyperconnectivity, as well as ACC-related and hippocampal-dorsolateral prefrontal-medial prefrontal hypoconnectivity. In summary, spectral DCM revealed the pattern of effective connectivity involving ACC in patients with first-episode SZ. This study provides a potential link between SZ and dysfunction of ACC, creating an ideal situation to associate mechanisms behind SZ with aberrant connectivity among these cognition and emotion-related regions. (shrink)

Aristotle's Idea of the Soul considers the nature of the soul within Aristotle's psychology and natural philosophy. A survey is provided of the contemporary interpretations of Aristotle's idea of the soul, which are prominent in the Aristotelian scholarship within the analytic tradition. These interpretations are divided into two positions: `attributivism', which considers the soul to be a property; and `substantialism', which considers it to be a thing. Taxonomies are developed for attributivism and substantialism, and the cases for each of them (...) are considered. It is concluded that neither position may be maintained without compromise, since Aristotle ascribes to the soul features that belong exclusively to a thing and exclusively to a property. Aristotle treats the soul as a `property-thing', as a cross between a thing and a property. It is argued that Aristotle comes by this idea of the soul because his hylomorphism casts the soul as a property and his causal doctrine presents it as a causal agent and thereby as a thing. (shrink)

Cognitive architectures (i.e., theorized blueprints on the structure of the mind) can be used to make predictions about the effect of multiregion brain activity on the systems level. Recent work has connected one high-level cognitive architecture, known as the “Common Model of Cognition,” to task-based functional MRI data with great success. That approach, however, was limited in that it was intrinsically top-down, and could thus only be compared with alternate architectures that the experimenter could contrive. In this paper, we propose (...) a bottom-up method to infer a cognitive architecture directly from brain imaging data itself, overcoming this limitation. Specifically, Granger causality modeling was applied to the same task-based fMRI data to infer a network of causal connections between brain regions based on their functional connectivity. The resulting network shares many connections with those proposed by the Common Model of Cognition but also suggests important additions likely related to the role of episodic memory. This combined top-down and bottom-up modeling approach can be used to help formalize the computational instantiation of cognitive architectures and further refine a comprehensive theory of cognition. (shrink)

The finding of fractal scaling (FS) in behavioral sequences has raised a debate on whether FS is a pervasive property of the cognitive system or is the result of specific processes. Inferences about the origins of properties in time sequences are causal. That is, as opposed to correlational inferences reflecting instantaneous symmetrical relations, causal inferences concern asymmetric relations lagged in time. Here, I integrate Granger‐causality with inferences about FS. Four simulations illustrate that causal analyses can isolate distinct FS (...) sources, whereas correlational techniques cannot. I then analyze three simultaneous sequences of responses from a database of word‐naming trials. I find that two, or perhaps three, distinct sources account for the presence of FS in these sequences, but FS is not a general property of the system. This suggests that FS arises due to the properties of a limited number of identifiable psychological and/or neural processes. Finally, I reanalyze a previously published dataset of acoustic frequency spectra using the new tools. The causality/criticality combination introduced here offers a new important perspective in the study of cognition. (shrink)

The finding of fractal scaling (FS) in behavioral sequences has raised a debate on whether FS is a pervasive property of the cognitive system or is the result of specific processes. Inferences about the origins of properties in time sequences are causal. That is, as opposed to correlational inferences reflecting instantaneous symmetrical relations, causal inferences concern asymmetric relations lagged in time. Here, I integrate Granger-causality with inferences about FS. Four simulations illustrate that causal analyses can isolate distinct FS (...) sources, whereas correlational techniques cannot. I then analyze three simultaneous sequences of responses from a database of word-naming trials. I find that two, or perhaps three, distinct sources account for the presence of FS in these sequences, but FS is not a general property of the system. This suggests that FS arises due to the properties of a limited number of identifiable psychological and/or neural processes. Finally, I reanalyze a previously published dataset of acoustic frequency spectra using the new tools. The causality/criticality combination introduced here offers a new important perspective in the study of cognition. (shrink)

Causality in Macroeconomics examines causality while taking macroeconomics seriously. A pragmatic and realistic philosophy is joined to a macroeconomic foundation that refines Herbert Simon's well-known work on causal order to make a case for a structural approach to causality. The structural approach is used to understand modern rational expectations models, regime switching models, Granger causality, vector autoregressions, the Lucas critique, and concept exogeneity. Techniques of causal inference based on patterns of stability and instability in the (...) face of identified regime changes are developed and illustrated in two empirical case studies. (shrink)

This study assesses the causal relationship between corporate social performance (CSP) and financial performance (FP). We perform our empirical analyses on a sample of 179 publicly held Canadian firms and use the measures of CSP provided by Canadian Social Investment Database for the years 2004 and 2005. Using the “Granger causality” approach, we find no significant relationship between a composite measure of a firm’s CSP and FP, except for market returns. However, using individual measures of CSP, we find (...) a robust significant negative impact of the environmental dimension of CSP and three measures of FP, namely return on assets, return on equity, and market returns. This latter finding is consistent, at least in the short run, with the trade-off hypothesis and, in part, with the negative synergy hypothesis which states that socially responsible firms experience lower profits and reduced shareholder wealth, which in turn limits the socially responsible investments. (shrink)

Yablo has argued (1995) the received view in philosophy, that spectral surface reflectances (SSRs) are the causes of color-experience, is mistaken. SSRs, he says, are not commensurate with our experiences and so are not their causes. This motivated Yablo to posit sui generis, “unscientific” color properties to fill the resultant causal lacunae (cf. Watkins in Australasian Journal of Philosophy 83:33–52, 2005;Watkins in Philosophical Studies 150:123–137, 2010; Gert, in: Brown & Macpherson (eds) Routledge Handbook of Philosophy of Colour, Routledge, 2021). (...) This move, I argue, only works if no physical posits commensurate with our experiences exist to fill the same lacunae. And there are, today, familiar such posits: dispositions to reflect long-, medium-, and short-wavelength light (Bradley & Tye in Journal of Philosophy 98:469, 2001; cf. Koenderink in Color for the Sciences, MIT Press, 2010). Moreover, these dispositions are commensurate with our cone and opponent-neural states too, those states, more than our color-experiences, demanding paradigmatically physical causes. The above, conjoined with the platitude that colors are the causes of color-experience, motivates reducing colors to the noted (physical) dispositions. (shrink)

This paper is an attempt at re-examining the question of co integration and causality between money supply and inflation. As a first step we have used the statistical theory of integrated regresses to establish the time series properties of MI, M2, CPI and WPI economic series for Pakistan and then tested causality between money supply and inflation using Granger causality test. The result indicates that M,, M2, CPI and WPI are integrated of order one. Both M1 (...) and M2 are co integrated with CPI and WPI. The result also indicates that money supply cause inflation irrespective of whether it is represented by the CPI or WPI. It is also observed that inflation. cause changes in money supply, irrespective of whether it is measured as M1 or M2. (shrink)

The present study aims to examine the relationship between the cortical midline structures (CMS), which have been regarded to be associated with selfhood, and moral decision making processes at the neural level. Traditional moral psychological studies have suggested the role of moral self as the moderator of moral cognition, so activity of moral self would present at the neural level. The present study examined the interaction between the CMS and other moral-related regions by conducting psycho-physiological interaction analysis of functional images (...) acquired while 16 subjects were solving moral dilemmas. Furthermore, we performed Granger causality analysis to demonstrate the direction of influences between activities in the regions in moral decision-making. We first demonstrate there are significant positive interactions between two central CMS seed regions—i.e., the medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) and posterior cingulate cortex (PCC)—and brain regions associated with moral functioning including the cerebellum, brainstem, midbrain, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, orbitofrontal cortex and anterior insula (AI); on the other hand, the posterior insula (PI) showed significant negative interaction with the seed regions. Second, several significant Granger causality was found from CMS to insula regions particularly under the moral-personal condition. Furthermore, significant dominant influence from the AI to PI was reported. Moral psychological implications of these findings are discussed. The present study demonstrated the significant interaction and influence between the CMS and morality-related regions while subject were solving moral dilemmas. Given that, activity in the CMS is significantly involved in human moral functioning. (shrink)

The temporal structure of behavior contains a rich source of information about its dynamic organization, origins, and development. Today, advances in sensing and data storage allow researchers to collect multiple dimensions of behavioral data at a fine temporal scale both in and out of the laboratory, leading to the curation of massive multimodal corpora of behavior. However, along with these new opportunities come new challenges. Theories are often underspecified as to the exact nature of these unfolding interactions, and psychologists have (...) limited ready-to-use methods and training for quantifying structures and patterns in behavioral time series. In this paper, we will introduce four techniques to interpret and analyze high-density multi-modal behavior data, namely, to: (1) visualize the raw time series, (2) describe the overall distributional structure of temporal events (Burstiness calculation), (3) characterize the nonlinear dynamics over multiple timescales with Chromatic and Anisotropic Cross-Recurrence Quantification Analysis (CRQA), (4) and quantify the directional relations among a set of interdependent multimodal behavioral variables with Granger Causality. Each technique is introduced in a module with conceptual background, sample data drawn from empirical studies and ready-to-use Matlab scripts. The code modules showcase each technique’s application with detailed documentation to allow more advanced users to adapt them to their own datasets. Additionally, to make our modules more accessible to beginner programmers, we provide a “Programming Basics” module that introduces common functions for working with behavioral timeseries data in Matlab. Together, the materials provide a practical introduction to a range of analyses that psychologists can use to discover temporal structure in high-density behavioral data. (shrink)

In QED, an external electromagnetic field can be accounted for non-perturbatively by replacing the causal propagators used in Feynman diagram calculations with Green’s functions for the Dirac equation under the external field. If the external field destabilises the vacuum, then it is a difficult problem to determine which Green’s function is appropriate, and multiple approaches have been developed in the literature whose equivalence, in many cases, is not clear. In this paper, we demonstrate for a broad class of external fields (...) that includes all that act for a finite time, that four Green’s functions used in the literature are equivalent: Schwinger’s “proper-time” propagator; the “causal propagator” used in the “Bogoliubov transformation” method based on the canonical quantization of the field operator; and two defined using analytic continuation from complexified parameters. To do so, we formulate Schwinger’s “proper-time quantum mechanics" as a Schrödinger wave mechanics, and use this to re-derive Schwinger’s expression for the propagator as a statement relating solutions of the inhomogeneous Dirac equation to those of the inhomogeneous “proper-time Dirac equation”. This is done by constructing direct integral spectral decompositions of the Hamiltonians of both equations, and deriving a form for solutions of the inhomogeneous Dirac equation in terms of these decompositions. We then show that all four propagators return solutions of the inhomogeneous Dirac equation that satisfy the same boundary condition, which under a physically reasonable assumption is sufficient to specify the solution uniquely. (shrink)

We investigate the role of social-media-triggered public pressure on corporate social responsibility that includes expectations of transparency and accountability on the firm’s part, and participative/evaluative inputs on the public’s part. Using the date when S&P 500 firms established corporate Twitter accounts, we investigate the impact of corporate social media exposure on CSR outcomes. Results from baseline regressions indicate that firms with Twitter accounts significantly outperform industry peers in CSR rating, after controlling for firm and industry characteristics. To test potential reverse (...) causality, we use a dynamic treatment effect model to explore within firm changes of CSR, and find that firms’ CSR rating improves in year one- and year two after establishing a Twitter account, while no difference emerged in similar comparisons with peers prior to the Twitter account establishment. Additionally, Granger causality tests results show that corporate Twitter presence improves CSR performance; it is also shown that CSR outcomes do not motivate corporations to establish a social media presence on Twitter. Finally, firms with more experience on Twitter, and those with more followers, tweets or Twitter accounts are associated with improved CSR outcomes. We draw on two theories and qualitative interviews with senior CSR executives to explain why social media influences CSR firm behaviors. (shrink)

Although the target article provides strong evidence against the locationist view, evidence for the constructionist view is inconclusive, because co-activation of brain regions does not necessarily imply connectivity between them. We propose a rigorous approach wherein connectivity between co-activated regions is first modeled using exploratory Granger causality, and then confirmed using dynamic causal modeling or Bayesian modeling.

This book argues that modern macroeconomics has completely overlooked the aggregate nature of the data. Standard models start with intertemporally maximizing agents and obtain dynamic equations linking economic variables like consumption, income, investment interest rate and employment. Such equations exhibit testable properties like cointegration, definite patterns of Granger causality, and restrictions on the parameters. The usual simplification that agents are identical leads to testing these properties directly on aggregate data. Here this simplification is systematically questioned. In Part I (...) the homogeneity assumption is tested using disaggregate data and strongly rejected. As shown in Part II, the consequence of introducing heterogeneity is that, apart from flukes, cointegration unidirectional Granger causality, restrictions on parameters do not survive aggregation: thus the claim that modern macroeconomics has solid microfoundations is unwarranted. However, it is argued in Part III that aggregation is not necessarily bad. Some important theory-based models that do not fit aggregate data well in their representative-agent version can be reconciled with aggregate data by introducing heterogeneity. (shrink)

The paper presents a partial evaluation of employment and factors related to the labour markets in European countries in 2007-2016. The interconnectedness of these determinants in the context of GDP dynamics per capita for each country was examined. The quoted partial subject literature and empirical research allowed to formulate the most important conclusions, among others: in the context of GDP dynamics per capita, at least four groups of countries can be distinguished in Europe, each of them has completely different characteristics (...) having an influence (in the Granger causality sense) on change in GDP per capita of these countries for various time steps. (shrink)

Post-stroke depression is a serious complication of stroke that significantly restricts rehabilitation. The use of immersive virtual reality for stroke survivors is promising. Herein, we investigated the effects of a novel immersive virtual reality training system on PSD and explored induced effective connectivity alterations in emotional networks using multivariate Granger causality analysis. Forty-four patients with PSD were equally allocated into an immersive-virtual reality group and a control group. In addition to their usual rehabilitation treatments, the participants in the (...) immersive-virtual reality group participated in an immersive-virtual reality rehabilitation program, while the patients in the control group received 2D virtual reality rehabilitation training. The Hamilton Depression Rating Scale, modified Barthel Index, and resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data were collected before and after a 4-week intervention. rsfMRI data were analyzed using multivariate GCA. We found that the immersive virtual reality training was more effective in improving depression in patients with PSD but had no statistically significant improvement in MBI scores compared to the control group. The GCA showed that the following causal connectivities were strengthened after immersive virtual reality training: from the amygdala, insula, middle temporal gyrus, and caudate nucleus to the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex; from the insula to the medial prefrontal cortex; and from the thalamus to the posterior superior temporal sulcus. These causal connectivities were weakened after treatment in the control group. Our results indicated the neurotherapeutic use of immersive virtual reality rehabilitation as an effective non-pharmacological intervention for PSD; the alteration of causal connectivity in emotional networks might constitute the neural mechanisms underlying immersive-virtual reality rehabilitation in PSD. (shrink)

Globalization hampers the growth level of the countries, then this raising growth rate helps to improve the living standard and reduce inequalities among the masses, that finally downgrade the poverty level of the nations, is the way that global institutions favor it. The debate on rightness of the measures taken for globalization to the socioeconomic development of emerging economies is prolonged and still controversial too. This paper attempts to address the impacts of measures taken for globalization specially with reference to (...) its benefits and harms associated to growth and poverty alleviation in Pakistan. In order to examine the effects of trade liberalization on output growth and poverty, Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality is used, by taking data of last 30 years i.e. 1985 to 2015. The empirical findings and review of literature done in the study is consistent with the judgment of prior studies as concluding the hybrid type effects of globalization to the socio-economic conditions i.e. growth and poverty, of Pakistan. (shrink)

This paper examines the spillover effect between bitcoin, gold, crude oil, and major stock markets by using the MSV model with dynamic correlation and Granger causality. The empirical results of the DC-GC-MSV model are logically correct and convergent. The DIC test result has proved that the DC-GC-MSV model is better and more accurate. Bitcoin has no significant Granger causality spillover effect than other assets. As a safe haven product for stock assets, gold price has one-way spillover (...) effect from stock market volatility. Moreover, crude oil has the highest correlation with the stock market. In the recent COVID-19 epidemic and the sluggish economic environment, investors need to consider a balanced asset allocation among low-correlation assets, medium-correlation assets, and high-correlation assets to reduce risks. (shrink)

Source: Author: Uzoamaka S. Chigbu, Chijindu Promise Ubah, Ezeji E. Chigbu The level of bank development has a determinant effect on the growth potentials of a developing economy. In response, this study examined the impact of banking sector development on foreign investment inflows in the West African countries of Nigeria and Ghana. The study relied on secondary data for analysis and made use of multiple regression technique. However, to ensure the authenticity of our result, Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and (...) Johansen Cointegration techniques were respectively employed to test for the presence unit root and long-run equilibrium relationship in the exogenous variables. Additionally, causal relationships were tested with Granger Causality. It was revealed that banking sector development has a significant influence on foreign investment inflows in the two West African countries. Specifically, domestic credit to private sector and bank deposit rate has significant influence on foreign investment inflows in both countries. Whereas domestic credit to private sector is directly related to the dependent variable in Ghana, it is related inversely in Nigeria. It was also discovered that bank lending rate is significantly and positively related to foreign investment in Ghana. Intermediation efficiency and profitability of banks should be improved by enhancing the capital structure and adopting the appropriate lending rate especially in Nigeria as measures to attract more inflows of foreign investment in both countries. ]]>. (shrink)

Pakistan’s women educational attainment has been the lowest in the entire South Asia; with women and girls continuing to suffer discrimination in the field of education. This study is designed to examine the linkage between gender disparity in education and Pakistan economic success, using annual secondary data to date range 1980 to 2019. Also the study checked the variables integration order by using Dickey-Fuller and Philip-Peron tests apart from utilizing the ARDL bound test technique for long-run co-integration relationship while the (...) direction of causality were tested by using Granger causality. The analyses reflect that a strong adverse influence on growth was the result to be yielded from gender educational disparity in Pakistan. This finding is based on the empirical interpretation such as women educational attainment at primary and secondary levels, government expenditures on education, total secondary education and male secondary education significantly contribute to growth. However, the associations of population growth, total labor force, male education at primary level and total primary education with growth being significantly negative. This study also found long run pair-wise causality from male and female secondary school attainment separately, male primary education, total primary and total secondary education to economic success. (shrink)

Significant challenges confronting China include reducing carbon emissions, dealing with the resulting problems, and meeting various requirements for long-term economic growth. As a result, the shift in industrial structure best reflects how human society utilizes resources and impacts the environment. To meet China's 2050 net-zero emissions target, we look at how technological innovations, financial development, renewable energy investment, population age, and the economic complexity index all play a role in environmental sustainability in China. Analyzing short- and long-term relationships using ARDL (...) bounds testing, we used historical data spanning 1990–2018. According to the study's findings, the cointegration between CO2 emissions and their underlying factors was found. The deterioration of the environment directly results from financial development, increasing economic complexity, and population aging. Technical advancements, investments in renewable energy sources, and changes to the industrial structure all contribute to lower CO2 emissions. Granger causality results were also reliably obtained in this study. According to our findings in the fight against environmental problems, a key tool for meeting long-term sustainability goals is policy prescriptions that use technological innovations, renewable energy investment, and industrial structure. (shrink)

Based on the research of currency crisis pressure index, bank crisis pressure index, and asset bubble crisis pressure index, this paper introduces an external shock pressure index reflecting the impact of global economic changes on economy and synthesizes systemic financial crisis pressure based on the above four pressure indexes; then, all the alternative early warning indicators and the systemic risk pressure index constructed in this paper were tested for Granger causality. We build financial systemic risk pressure indexes, including (...) currency crisis pressure banking crisis pressure index, bubble crisis pressure index, and external shock pressure index to predict financial crises. Finally, four indicators that have a significant impact on the systemic financial crisis pressure index were selected, namely, the stock price index change rate, industrial added value growth rate, domestic and foreign real deposit interest rate differential, and foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP. A dynamic Logit model with lagging binary variables is constructed, and compared with the traditional static Logit line, the actual dynamic fitting effect is better than the static Logit model. The dynamic Logit model is used to predict the early warning status of systemic financial crisis in 2020, and the forecast of various early warning indicators is realized by the ARIMA model. The final prediction results show that the probability of a systemic financial crisis in China in 2020 is extremely low, almost zero. This is in line with the overall improvement in the international economic situation in 2020 and the steady growth of the domestic economy. (shrink)

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between migrating soccer players and the annual ranking of the national teams according to the World Football Elo Rating. The sample includes annual data for 243 countries over the period 1994-2018. Migration is captured with the number of migrating players by country in the ‘big-five’ leagues. The causal relationship between the two variables is examined by using Granger causality test. Four control variables are included: the political regime, per (...) capita income, population and regional soccer confederations. The results shed light on two crucial issues. First, causality mainly goes from national soccer performance to migrating soccer players rather than the other way around. Second, the timing of the two effects is quite different. While those players giving an outstanding performance when their national team is doing well are immediately bought by clubs from more highly ranked leagues (the shop-window effect), it takes at least four years for the additional skills acquired by migrated players to have a positive effect on the national soccer performance (the blending effect). (shrink)

The perception of meaningful patterns in random arrangements and unrelated events takes place in our everyday lives, coined apophenia, synchronicity, or the experience of meaningful coincidences. However, we do not know yet what predicts this phenomenon. To investigate this, we re-analyzed a combined data set of two daily diary studies with a total of N = 169 participants (mean age 29.95 years; 54 men). We investigated if positive or negative affect (PA, NA) predicts the number of meaningful coincidences on the (...) following day (or vice versa). By means of a cross-lagged multilevel modelling approach (Bayesian estimation) we evaluated with which of two theoretical assumptions the data are more in line. First, if meaningful coincidences are facilitated by a broader and more flexible thinking style, PA should positively predict meaningful coincidences at the following day. However, if the experience of meaningful coincidences signifies a strategy to cope with negative feeling states, NA should predict the experience of meaningful coincidences during the following day. In favour of a more flexible thinking style, we found that PA predicted the number of perceived coincidences the following day. We did not find any effect for NA, and therefore, no evidence arguing for the coping mechanism hypothesis of meaningful coincidences. (shrink)

The impetus of this study is to gauge the nexus between economic policy uncertainty and financial innovation in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa nations for the period from 2004M1 to 2018M12. This study utilizes both the linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag models to evaluate the long-run and the short-run association between EPU and financial innovation; furthermore, the causal effects are investigated by following the non-Granger casualty framework. The results of long-run cointegration, i.e., the test statistics of (...) modified F-test, standard Wald test, and tBDM, reject the null hypothesis and establish the presence of the long-run association between EPU and financial innovation. Conversely, long-run asymmetry cointegration revealed the test statistics of FPSS, WPSS, and tBDM in non-linear estimation. Furthermore, both in the long run and short run, the Wald test results disclose asymmetric effects running from EPU to financial innovation. In regards to the asymmetric impact of EPU on financial innovation, this study documents that the positive and negative shocks in EPU are negatively linked with financial innovation in the long run but are insignificant for short-run effects. Besides, financial innovation measured by R&D investment exhibits a positive linkage with shocks in EPU, implying that uncertainty induces innovation in the economy. Referring to causality effects, this study divulges the feedback hypothesis, i.e., bidirectional causality prevails between EPU and financial innovation in all sample countries. (shrink)

This paper charts P.A.M. Dirac’s development of his theory of the electron, and its radical picture of empty space as an almost-full plenum. Dirac’s Quantum Electrodynamics famously accomplished more than the unification of special relativity and quantum mechanics. It also accounted for the ‘duplexity phenomena’ of spectral line splitting that we now attribute to electron spin. But the extra mathematical terms that allowed for spin were not alone, and this paper charts Dirac’s struggle to ignore or account for them (...) as a sea of strange, negative-energy, particles with positive ‘holes’. This work was not done in solitude, but rather in exchanges with Dirac’s correspondence network. This social context for Dirac’s work contests his image as a lone genius, and documents a community wrestling with the ontological consequences of their work. Unification, consistency, causality, and community are common factors in explanations in the history of physics. This paper argues on the basis of materials in Dirac’s archive that — in addition — mathematical beauty was an epistemological factor in the development of the electron and hole theory. In fact, if we believe that Dirac’s beautiful mathematics captures something of the world, then there is both an epistemology and an ontology of mathematical beauty. (shrink)

: According to a consensus of psycho-physiological and philosophical theories, color sensations (or qualia) are generated in a cerebral "space" fed from photon-photoreceptor interaction (producing "metamers") in the retina of the eye. The resulting "space" has three dimensions: hue (or chroma), saturation (or "purity"), and brightness (lightness, value or intensity) and (in some versions) is further structured by primitive or landmark "colors"—usually four, or six (when white and black are added to red, yellow, green and blue). It has also been (...) proposed that there are eleven semantic universals—labeling the previous six plus the "intermediaries" of orange, pink, brown, purple, and gray. There are many versions of this consensus, but they all aim to provide ontological, epistemological and semantic blueprints for the brute fact of the reality of color ordained by Nature (evolution). In contrast to this consensus, we have argued that "seeing color" is not a matter of light waves impacting on our eyes, producing sensations to be categorized and labeled in the "color space" in the brain. While electrochemical events may unproblematically be regarded as the causal precondition for seeing color, the reception of sensations in "the color space" as semantically labeled natural categories, kinds, or information, is a "just so" story: it is Wittgenstein's beetle in a box. In contrast we consider that the authority of this consensus might better be regarded not as the result of the truth-tracking of nature, but as the sociohistorical outcome of philosophical presuppositions, scientific theories, experimental practices, technological apparatus, and their feed forward into the lifeworld. The question we shall therefore explore is whether, or to what extent, we ourselves are changed, as the conditions of production of color science change. Thus we are doing a kind of anthropology at two levels: of color science itself (and its effect on our own lifeworld), and of those studied by the "anthropology of color". As befits this stance we are agnostic about the theoretical entities of color science (cf. van Fraassen 2001), and within this new context, we propose to cross-cut object-and-subject, organism-and-environment (the bedrock of color science) in socio-historical ways. Our approach is in part inspired by, but not the same as, that of Gibson, in that we wish to pursue the notion of "social affordances" (Burmudez 1995). We suggest that color has become a naturalization through science-based technologies, which, through praxes and materializations, have become the perceptual and cultural entities that structure experience and understanding in the lifeworld. It is this naturalization that we shall refer to and characterize as "the historically inflected exosomatic organ". Consequently we shall explore the historical ontology of "color" without assuming an underlying biological constant (Dupré 2001). In part 1 we show the flimsiness of the evidence for the three dimensions of color, borrowed from physics, and fine-tuned to a "standard observer" (a "spectral creature" with a phenomenal "color space"). In part 2 we address the structuring of hue through the development of color circles and color spaces. This is followed by a review of the evidence for unique hues. Again the evidence is shown to be flimsy. We then show that an isolated domain of color is a particular kind of model, not a "natural given". In part 3, after reviewing what is referred to as "the isomorphy thesis," we discuss the exemplary case study of Berlin and Kay (1969). This illustrates the pull of stadial models presupposed by their evolutionary theory of color language. The Berlin and Kay paradigm proposes that American English color terms are incorrigible and can provide the universal metalanguage. We conclude by presenting an alternative account, namely that we ourselves are changed as the conditions of production of color science change. We argue that it is better to regard "seeing-color" as a historically inflected exosomatic organ that provides social affordances for those trained to grasp them. (shrink)

The aim of this essay is to elaborate two distinctive but interconnected modes of temporalization through common points in the work of Jaques Derrida and Jaques Lacan, namely the Subalternated and the Dislocated time. The explication of the different form of time structure reveals time as relational phenomena, which is constituted by the non-relation between the subject and the Other. The process of subjectivization as the formalization of the Real, or as the work of mourning, excludes traumatic present and opens (...) the space for free flow of the Subalternated time, which is marked by linearity, identitarian thought, subordination, causality ect. The present is, therefore, marked by ontologization of the posthumous remains, canonized, excluded and deprived of any subversive potential. But despite this eternal requiem, something remains between the future and the past, non-present in its spectral subsistence which disrupts smooth stream of the Subalternated narrativity, announcing arrival, return and temporarily inexhaustible artificiality of novelty in the form of the Dislocated time. (shrink)

To support my Phd theses and results of my grant research in 1999, I asked 1) prominent chemist Antonín Holý, author of substances to treat hepatitis and HIV, about the indivisibility of the art and science (published in Slovak Narodna Obroda and Czech blisty,cz), 2) the distinguished economist William Baumol about the alternative activities (published in Slovak Nove Slovo, Czech Respekt and blisty.cz), 3) Nobel Laureate Clive Granger about the significance of the economics (published in 2004 in Czech weekly (...) Tyden). The interviews were exhibited in Holland Park, W8 6LU, The Ice House between 18. Oct - 3. Nov. 2013. (shrink)

Peu étudiée, la querelle de la méthode, qui eut lieu entre 1828 et 1840 et mit en discussion trois nations philosophiques (Allemagne, Écosse, France) s’avère déterminante pour comprendre l’élaboration, via la réception de Schelling, d’une philosophie française. À partir de l’étude de cette querelle, ce travail propose d’identifier et d’analyser la fonction de Schelling dans l’élaboration d’une identité philosophique française, en particulier dans les spiritualismes concurrents de Victor Cousin et Félix Ravaisson. En retour, il nous ouvre de nouvelles perspectives sur (...) la philosophie française du xixe siècle, mais aussi sur la philosophie schellingienne. (shrink)

Le Système de l’idéalisme transcendantal a paru en 1800 et fut traduit en français pour la première fois en 1842 par Paul Grimblot. La traduction de Christian Dubois, parue en 1978 et aujourd’hui rééditée chez Allia, est la deuxième, et dernière en date, transposition en français de ce texte. Cette traduction s’inscrivait, en 1978, dans le cadre d’un regain d’intérêt pour les études schellingiennes dans la sphère francophone, représentée par les travaux de Jean-François Courtine et Xavier Til...

In recent years the formerly quite strong interest in patient compliance has been questioned for being too paternalistic and oriented towards overly narrow biomedical goals as the basis for treatment recommendations. In line with this there has been a shift towards using the notion of adherence to signal an increased weight for patients’ preferences and autonomy in decision making around treatments. This ‘adherence-paradigm’ thus encompasses shared decision-making as an ideal and patient perspective and autonomy as guiding goals of care. What (...) this implies in terms of the importance that we have reason to attach to (non-)adherence and how has, however, not been explained. In this article, we explore the relationship between different forms of shared decision-making, patient autonomy and adherence. Distinguishing between dynamically and statically framed adherence we show how the version of shared decision-making advocated will have consequences for whether one should be interested in a dynamically or statically framed adherence and in what way patient adherence should be assessed. In contrast to the former compliance paradigm (where non-compliance was necessarily seen as a problem), using observations about (non-)adherence to assess the success of health care decision making and professional-patient interaction turns out to be a much less straightforward matter. (shrink)

Images abound of women throughout the ages engaging in various activities. But why are there so few representations of childbirth in visual art? Feminist artist Judy Chicago once suggested that depictions of women giving birth do not commonly occur in Western culture but can be found in other contexts such as pre-Columbian art or societies previously considered "primitive." Chicago's own exploration of the theme resulted in the creation of The Birth Project (1980-85): an unprecedented series of eighty handcrafted works of (...) art created in a variety of needlework techniques by more than 130 artisans that celebrate the experience of birth and a woman's transformation into motherhood. But why is The Birth Project an aberration from today's norm? What are the reasons that childbirth remains a taboo subject in our visual culture? Why is the birthing experience--so pervasive for women--so infrequently celebrated, even by female artists? (shrink)