By their nature, the most vexing social problems reflect collisions between social and economic interests of parties with highly divergent views and perspectives on the cause and character of what is at issue and the consequences that flow from it. Conflicts around biotechnology applications are good examples of these problems. When considering the potential consequences of proposed biotechnology applications, an enormous range of perspectives arise reflecting the breadth of different and often competing interests with a stake in life's future.This essay (...) starts from an assumption that the traditional tool of cost‐benefit analysis is not adequate for adjudicating competing claims around the introduction of new biotechnology applications. It tends to require implicit simplifying assumptions that reduce or mask true underlying levels of complexity and uncertainty, and the results it produces deliver a definitive and singular answer, as opposed to a multiplicity of outcomes. In this essay, I describe some of the key elements of formal scenario planning to show how CBA could be redeployed as a supporting tool within the broader decision support methodology of formal scenario planning. (shrink)

This article will argue that there is a science of scenario planning; or at least a logos, a logic, a scenariology. Scenario planning is not predictive. But a good set of scenarios, scientifically developed, can reliably and predictably change minds. Scenario planning is both art and science. In joining the club of the sciences, scenario planning calls for a new kind of membership, or a new kind of science, one that, following Stuart (...) Kauffman, relies on the importance of story. Hegel tells us that all stories, all narratives include a conflict between desire and the law, intention, and necessity. Scenarios provide a way for communities to frame their intentions. They thereby effect "downward causality" on the present in order to project the present toward a preferred future. In fulfilling the promise of this new kind of science, scenario planning breaks with positivistic science, but without falling into a postmodern nihilism. Without setting out to do so, the discipline of scenario planning introduces us to a new epistemology, a new way of knowing the truth. Drawing on pragmatism, Wittgenstein, and Richard Rorty, this article reaches the conclusion that, for scenario planners, the future replaces objectivity as the horizon for justification. What is true? We'll see. (shrink)

Value sensitive design aims at creating better technology based on social and ethical values. However, VSD has not been applied to long-term and uncertain future developments, such as societal planning for climate change. This paper describes a new method that combines elements from VSD with scenario planning. The method was developed for and applied to a case study of adaptation to sea level rise in southern Sweden in a series of workshops. The participants of the workshops found (...) that the method provided a framework for discussing long-term planning, enabled identification of essential values, challenged established planning practices, helped find creative solutions, and served as a reminder that we do not know what will happen in the future. Finally, we reflect on the limitations of the method and suggest further research on how it can be improved for value sensitive design of adaptation measures to manage uncertain future sea level rise. (shrink)

One of the most important devices in the management and control of our global societies is the scenario-planning. In this regard, this paper analyses the impact that the massive use of these devices implies to our society. Specifically, it is used as an analytical approach the concepts of difference, différance and destituent power. These theoretical proposals, which have been regarded as important dimensions of resistance and liberation, paradoxically are relevant to understanding the operation of the scenario-planning. (...) Therefore, this paper warns of the need to try new forms-of-thought that allow us to overcome the danger of our best philosophy captured by new machines of control. Uno de los dispositivos más utilizados en la gestión y control de nuestras actuales sociedades globales son las técnicas de construcción de escenarios. En este sentido, el presente artículo analiza el impacto que la utilización masiva de estos dispositivos entraña para nuestra sociedad. Específicamente, se utilizará como enfoque analítico el concepto de diferencia de Deleuze, la différance de Derrida y lo destituyente en Agamben. Dichas propuestas teóricas, que permanentemente han sido consideradas como dimensiones de resistencia, subversión y liberación, se muestran paradójicamente pertinentes para comprender el funcionamiento de las técnicas de construcción de escenarios ficcionales. Por ende, el presente art&iacut e la necesidad de ensayar nuevas formas-de-pensamiento que nos permitan sortear el peligro de fagocitación de nuestra mejor filosofía por parte de nuevas maquinarias de control. (shrink)

(2014). Introduction to the Special Issue on Strategy, Story, and Emergence: Essays on Scenario Planning. World Futures: Vol. 70, Strategy, Story, and Emergence: Essays on Scenario Planning, pp. 2-4.

Volume 20, Issue 7, July 2020, Page W17-W19.

Emergent structural approaches to institutional complexity tend to inhibit the role of agency in addressing logic multiplicity scenarios. Prior studies of logic multiplicity have documented a diverse set of outcomes, ranging from domination through hybridization, and characterized by various levels of conflict. A new stream of research has emerged that seeks to explain this heterogeneity through the structural components of complexity. These studies tend to minimize the role of agency in institutional complexity scenarios, positing that outcome diversity, and the organization’s (...) ability to exert agency, can be accounted for by the interaction of exogenously determined parameters, such as centrality, compatibility, prioritization, and jurisdictional overlap. This article revisits the role of agency in these models, suggesting that agency is not only framed by, but may itself shape, structure. The article draws on a comparative case study in five Israeli nonprofit organizations, focusing on the introduction of the business logic through a strategic planning process, and the challenge that this represents for the legacy social logic. The case studies demonstrate that organizations regularly use a set of distinctive mechanisms to manipulate the structural components of complexity, and, in so doing, agentically regulate logic multiplicity outcomes. (shrink)

Au sein du service de placement où exerce en tant que psychologue le premier auteur de cet article a été développée une recherche longitudinale qui vise à explorer le fonctionnement psychique des adolescents auteurs de violences sexuelles et les modalités de leur accompagnement éducatif et thérapeutique. L’article propose de se centrer sur leur placement en famille d’accueil, la dynamique relationnelle témoignant des particularités des liens tissés avec les premiers objets. La présentation de la situation de Nicolas mettra en exergue les (...) difficultés, malentendus et usures qui semblent illustrer un scénario qui se répète et qui conduit à la rupture. Les auteurs ouvrent une réflexion, dans une perspective psychodynamique, pour tenter de comprendre les mouvements psychiques à l’œuvre du côté de l’adolescent, notamment sur un plan intersubjectif, dans la perspective développée par René Kaës, et invitent à s’intéresser aux adaptations nécessaires au sein des dispositifs éducativo-thérapeutiques d’accompagnement. (shrink)

Background Forward-looking, democratically oriented governance is needed to ensure that human genome editing serves rather than undercuts public values. Scientific, policy, and ethics communities have recognized this necessity but have demonstrated limited understanding of how to fulfill it. The field of bioethics has long attempted to grapple with the unintended consequences of emerging technologies, but too often such foresight has lacked adequate scientific grounding, overemphasized regulation to the exclusion of examining underlying values, and failed to adequately engage the public. Methods (...) This research investigates the application of scenario planning, a tool developed in the high-stakes, uncertainty-ridden world of corporate strategy, for the equally high-stakes and uncertain world of the governance of emerging technologies. The scenario planning methodology is non-predictive, looking instead at a spread of plausible futures which diverge in their implications for different communities’ needs, cares, and desires. Results In this article we share how the scenario development process can further understandings of the complex and dynamic systems which generate and shape new biomedical technologies and provide opportunities to re-examine and re-think questions of governance, ethics and values. We detail the results of a year-long scenario planning study that engaged experts from the biological sciences, bioethics, social sciences, law, policy, private industry, and civic organizations to articulate alternative futures of human genome editing. Conclusions Through sharing and critiquing our methodological approach and results of this study, we advance understandings of anticipatory methods deployed in bioethics, demonstrating how this approach provides unique insights and helps to derive better research questions and policy strategies. (shrink)

(2014). The Mind of the Scenario Thinker. World Futures: Vol. 70, Strategy, Story, and Emergence: Essays on Scenario Planning, pp. 44-51.

Contemporary art is brimming with images of a future shaped by environmental destruction, technological innovation, and new forms of sociality. This article looks beyond the content of such images in order to examine the infrastructures that underpin them. Paying attention to two key infrastructures in particular—the Cold War faith in prediction and the extraordinary explosion of scenario planning in the years that followed—the article explores the ways in which speculation was transformed into a tightly defined field of expertise (...) straddling military, policy, and corporate worlds. No longer the preserve of prophets or mystics, the speculative infrastructures incubated within organizations such as the RAND corporation were underwritten by cybernetics, game theory, and systems analysis, all of which helped give prediction a veneer of scientific credibility. And yet, as the planning tools of the postwar era lost their predictive edge, new techniques came to exert influence in a world dominated by the uncertainties of looming environmental catastrophe. The future was no longer thought to emerge from the present in a linear fashion but unfold along a series of branch points that allowed decision makers to navigate through a landscape of uncertainty. Tracing the genealogy of forms of prediction and scenario planning from the mid-twentieth century to the present day, this article places futurological tools in the context of an expanded field of speculative practices that include works of art. Projects by the likes of Stephen Willats, Experiments in Art and Technology, the Harrisons, and others not only generate alternative images of the future but also rework the infrastructures by which such images are conceptualized and produced. (shrink)

Background: Family members are often required to act as substitute decision-makers when health care or research participation decisions must be made for an incapacitated relative. Yet most families are unable to accurately predict older adult preferences regarding future health care and willingness to engage in research studies. Discussion and documentation of preferences could improve proxies' abilities to decide for their loved ones. This trial assesses the efficacy of an advance planning intervention in improving the accuracy of substitute decision-making and (...) increasing the frequency of documented preferences for health care and research. It also investigates the financial impact on the healthcare system of improving substitute decision-making.Methods/DesignDyads (n = 240) comprising an older adult and his/her self-selected proxy are randomly allocated to the experimental or control group, after stratification for type of designated proxy and self-report of prior documentation of healthcare preferences. At baseline, clinical and research vignettes are used to elicit older adult preferences and assess the ability of their proxy to predict those preferences. Responses are elicited under four health states, ranging from the subject's current health state to severe dementia. For each state, we estimated the public costs of the healthcare services that would typically be provided to a patient under these scenarios. Experimental dyads are visited at home, twice, by a specially trained facilitator who communicates the dyad-specific results of the concordance assessment, helps older adults convey their wishes to their proxies, and offers assistance in completing a guide entitled My Preferences that we designed specifically for that purpose. In between these meetings, experimental dyads attend a group information session about My Preferences. Control dyads attend three monthly workshops aimed at promoting healthy behaviors. Concordance assessments are repeated at the end of the intervention and 6 months later to assess improvement in predictive accuracy and cost savings, if any. Copies of completed guides are made at the time of these assessments.DiscussionThis study will determine whether the tested intervention guides proxies in making decisions that concur with those of older adults, motivates the latter to record their wishes in writing, and yields savings for the healthcare system.Trial RegistrationISRCTN89993391. (shrink)

What if we fail to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and so face its more severe impacts? I argue that asking this question reveals a new obligation of climate justice: contingency planning for severe climate change. Surprisingly, such plans are already being drafted. But the politics behind them is neoliberal and militarist. I identify the epistemology of futurity motivating contingency planning—possibilism—and argue that we can and should dissociate it from, and redeploy it against, neoliberal militarism.

This study presents the first assessment of how an approach based on meeting fundamental human needs can assist regional planning. It uses the Human-scale Development methodology, based on fundamental human needs as a theoretical and methodological framework for scenario building. It offers a structured approach on how non-monetary values and practices (i.e. satisfiers or ways to satisfy needs) can help to open up the planning process, highlighting a regional conflict. The study presents three dimensions of needs to (...) address planning challenges. The data is taken from a case study of a deliberative process for regional planning in Western Europe. The relevance lies in the ways we can learn from individual values and practices, that when shared with others, (1) help to diagnose behaviours and trends toward environmentalism; (2) foster listening and understanding of people's sameness and differences that reduce conflict; and (3) provide a structured tool which predicts society dynamics and develops integrated solutions that facilitate sustainable regional development. (shrink)

(2014). Emergence, Story, and the Challenge of Positive Scenarios. World Futures: Vol. 70, Strategy, Story, and Emergence: Essays on Scenario Planning, pp. 52-87.

The goal of this essay is to explore "the highly contested nature of [decision-making through adopting] a historically comparative and interdisciplinary approach." Internalist history of game theory treats decision theory as a science of making choices to maximize expected gain. Game theory is applied to nuclear deterrence and military strategy, building markets and designing institutions, analyzing collective action, developing jurisprudence, and addressing crime and punishment. This essay draws on recent historiography of Cold War decision-making to draw into focus the constructive (...) aspects of decision theory to argue that the perceived need to avoid worst-case scenarios has instead contributed to a world in which the worst outcome is probabilistically assured to occur over the long duree timeframe. (shrink)

Between 1992 and 1996, a small number of women in the UK were forced by the courts to undergo caesarean section against their expressed refusal. Analysis of the reported cases reveals the blanket assumption of maternal incompetence and the widespread use of thinly veiled coercion. Such attitudes and practices are themselves frequently compounded by inadequate communication. Medical discretion in such problematic cases seems to err on the side of safety and so appears to favour the life of the fetus over (...) maternal autonomy. Despite current policy’s placement of the pregnant woman at the centre of maternity care, obstetricians’ concerns appear to lie more with the unborn fetus. In other words, there seems to be a point at which the value of fetal life begins to outweigh, not so much the life of the woman, but her right to self-determination, her plans and her choices. While it is important to acknowledge that these court ordered caesareans represent an unusual extreme within contemporary maternity care in this country, that they have happened brings into sharp relief some of the stereotypical assumptions about women. These are assumptions that underlie much of current medical practice and may compromise or disempower women in other ways during their experience of pregnancy and labour. Using the first and last of the six reported cases as contextual illustrations, this article focuses on the complex interplay of processes that have brought the medical profession to a position in which their own self-conviction and determination to do what they believe is best for their patients has resulted in gross denial of women’s autonomy and the use of the law to override pregnant women’s refusal of consent. (shrink)

In this paper, we study the evolution of knowledge in multi-agent conformant planning over transition systems. We propose a dynamic epistemic logical framework with modalities of distributed knowledge to handle the epistemic reasoning in such scenarios, and we reduce a problem of multi-agent conformant planning to a model checking problem. We prove that multi-agent conformant planning is Pspace-complete on the size of the dynamic epistemic model.

In this article we summarise some previously described proposals for ethical governance of autonomous vehicles, critique them, and offer an alternative solution. Rather than programming cars to react to crash situations in the same way as humans, having humans program pre-set responses for a wide range of different potential scenarios, or applying particular ethical theories, we suggest that decisions should be made jointly between humans and cars. Given that humans lack the requisite processing capacity, and computers lack the necessary ethical (...) capacity, the medical paradigm of advance care planning can be retooled for this new context. Advance car-crash planning provides a way to combine humans’ ethical preferences with the advanced data processing capacities of computers to enable shared decision making in collision situations. (shrink)

We extend the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) for ethics in the workplace. Using a path modeling methodology, we find evidence that, for ethics, moral disengagement is an antecedent to the TPB predictors of attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control (PBC). We show that the TPB predictors mediate the influence moral disengagement has on ethical behavioral intentions. Thus, to improve ethical behavior, reducing moral disengagement is critical. We find support for including both types of PBC (self-efficacy and locus of (...) control) when modeling ethical behavior. We use four ethics scenarios and international data to test this model. We also evaluate potential positive influences on ethics in the workplace and find that recency of ethics training interacts with religiosity and activates it to reduce moral disengagement. We also find that principles-based ethics training enhances professionals’ self-efficacy to behave ethically. Experience, including time as a member in a professional accounting organization, increases both locus of control and self-efficacy to behave ethically. These variables—recency of ethical training, religiosity, principles-based professional ethics training, and experience—influence parts of the core TPB model, which in turn lead to improved ethical behavioral intentions. (shrink)

The emergence of H1N1 in 2009 shows that it is a mistake to regard the scenario of having to implement pandemic plans as merely hypothetical. This recent experience provides an opportunity to inquire into the current state of pandemic preparedness plans with regard to their ethical adequacy. One aspect that deserves consideration in this context is the disclosure of ethical reasoning. Accordingly, the following is an analysis of examples of pandemic plans and drafts of plans from Southeast Asia and (...) the Western Pacific. It is an analysis of the occurrence of explicit ethical reflection in these documents as well an inquiry into the related question of how ethical reflection can be understood as a constitutive element of ethical pandemic preparedness.In the analysis, different fields of ethical consideration concerning equity, personal rights and accountability are distinguished. There are both pragmatic and genuinely ethical reasons to explicitly address issues of these types in pandemic plans. The extent to which ethical language appears in the national plans in South East Asia and the Western Pacific suggests that there is limited awareness of ethical considerations, or at least insufficient ethical substantiation of pandemic action. The aim of the analysis is to show that further inclusion of ethical considerations into pandemic plans is ethically demanded. It is of particular significance that these considerations are formulated and remain discernible as instances of ethical deliberation. (shrink)

The oncological disease experience is counted as a wound in the body and mind attributable to a traumatic experience that fragments and disorients the person’s biography. The neoplasia leaves marks and scars in both somatic and existential level. The illness experience suggests to patient to look for meaning that cannot be unheard. The literature associating the concept of liminality in oncological disease to understand the process of meaning making. The definition of new horizons of meaning, generated by crossing the limen, (...) opens up a new self-awareness and worldview. The autopoietic dimension present in oncological disease reveals new scenarios of generativity and existential planning in the direction of self-realization in the cipher of the possible. The contribution presents the story of Anastasia, a 41-years-old nurse. A few months after her new marriage and close to a professional promotion, she receives the diagnosis of cholangiocarcinoma: a very aggressive, low-incidence, neoplasia, without specific therapeutic lines and with a negative prognosis. Anastasia’s words, thoughts and emotions, collected in the course of some testimonies in a university classroom, are analyzed and deciphered within the pedagogical paradigm, refering to the perspective of pedagogical problematicism and phenomenological pedagogy. (shrink)

This paper examines farmer intentions to adapt to global climate change by analyzing responses to a climate change scenario presented in a survey given to large-scale farmers across the US Corn Belt in 2012. Adaptive strategies are evaluated in the context of decision making and farmers’ intention to increase their use of three production practices promoted across the Corn Belt: no-till farming, cover crops, and tile drainage. This paper also provides a novel conceptual framework that bridges a typology of (...) adaptation with concepts that help predict intentionality in behavior change models. This conceptual framework was developed to facilitate examination of adaptive decision making in the context of agriculture. This research effort examines key factors that influence farmers’ intentions to increase their use of the practices evaluated given a climate change scenario. Twenty-two covariates are examined across three models developed for no-till farming, cover crops, and tile drainage. Findings highlight that farmers who believed they should adjust their practices to protect their farm from the negative impacts of increased weather variability were more likely to indicate that they would increase their use of each of the practices in response to climate change. Additionally, visiting with other farmers to observe their practices was positively associated with farmers’ intentions to increase their use of the adaptive strategies examined. Farmers who were currently using no-till farming, cover crops, and tile drainage were also more likely to plan to increase their use of these practices in response to increased weather variability associated with climate change. However, farmers who reported high levels of confidence in their current practices were less likely to plan on changing their use of these practices in response to climatic changes. (shrink)

The article examines the impact of the virtual public sphere on how urban spaces are experienced and conceived in our data-driven society. It places particular emphasis on urban scale digital twins, which are virtual replicas of cities that are used to simulate environments and develop scenarios in response to policy problems. The article also investigates the shift from the technical to the socio-technical perspective within the field of smart cities. Despite the aspirations of urban scale digital twins to enhance the (...) participation of citizens in the decision-making processes relayed to urban planning strategies, the fact that they are based on a limited set of variables and processes makes them problematic. The article aims to shed light on the tension between the real and the ideal at stake during this process of abstracting sets of variables and processes in the case of urban scale digital twins. (shrink)

This paper presents an experimental approach for engaging undergraduate STEM students in anticipatory ethical reasoning, or ethical reasoning applied to the analysis of potential mid- to long-term implications and outcomes of technological innovation. The authors implemented two variations of an approach that integrates three key components—scenario analysis, design fiction, and ethical frameworks—into five sections of an introductory course on the social contexts of science and technology that is required of STEM majors. The authors dub this approach Creative Anticipatory Ethical (...) Reasoning, or CAER. Scenario analysis is a strategy emerging from business consulting for grounded analysis of plausible future trajectories to inform planning. Design fiction is a creative hands-on activity that blends science fiction and design prototyping to facilitate critical thinking with respect to the societal dimensions of a plausible future technology. The authors present the following findings: in each of the variations, students demonstrated significant engagement with CAER and a substantive shift in their conception of what constitutes responsible innovation and ethical conduct in science and technology. Specifically, their integration of ethical reasoning with stakeholder perspectives and scenario analysis reframed technologies, from unproblematic solutions for societal problems to socially-embedded forms of life that might diverge from designers’ intentions. This suggests that CAER could be a useful pedagogical intervention for expanding students’ ethical engagement to consider the potential unintended consequences of technological innovation. (shrink)

An energy efficiency scenario (Joint Institute for a Sustainable Energy and Environmental Future) demonstrates that an energy future built on the use of cost-effective, high-efficiency technologies is clearly within the grasp of South Korea and would justify a nuclear power moratorium with significantly lower carbon dioxide emissions. This is a promising result, especially because applications of other sustainable energy options, such as renewables, decentralized technologies, material recycling/reuse, ecologically based land use planning, forest conservation, sustainable agriculture, and redirection of (...) economic development toward an environment-friendly industrial base, are not included in the analysis. Here lies one of the most fundamental policy choices of the newcentury: Will we build a sustainable energy and environmental future, or will we send forward the burdens and risks of a policy regime that is unwilling to value the future beyond the satisfaction of short-term interests and convenience? It is a critical time for South Korean policy making. (shrink)

The present study applied Ajzen's (1985) theory of planned behavior to the explanation of ethical decision making. Nurses in three hospitals were provided with scenarios that depicted inadequate patient care and asked if they would report health professionals responsible for the situation. Study results suggest that the theory of planned behavior can explain a significant amount of variation in the intent to report a colleague. Attitude toward performing the behavior explained a large portion of the variance; subjective norms explained a (...) moderate amount of the variance; and, perceived behavioral control added little to the explanation of variance. Implications for research and practice are discussed. (shrink)

Rapid and precise air operation mission planning is a key technology in unmanned aerial vehicles autonomous combat in battles. In this paper, an end-to-end UAV intelligent mission planning method based on deep reinforcement learning is proposed to solve the shortcomings of the traditional intelligent optimization algorithm, such as relying on simple, static, low-dimensional scenarios, and poor scalability. Specifically, the suppression of enemy air defense mission planning is described as a sequential decision-making problem and formalized as a Markov (...) decision process. Then, the SEAD intelligent planning model based on the proximal policy optimization algorithm is established and a general intelligent planning architecture is proposed. Furthermore, three policy training tricks, i.e., domain randomization, maximizing policy entropy, and underlying network parameter sharing, are introduced to improve the learning performance and generalizability of PPO. Experiments results show that the model in this work is efficient and stable, and can be adapted to the unknown continuous high-dimensional environment. It can be concluded that the UAV intelligent mission planning model based on DRL has powerful intelligent planning performance, and provides a new idea for researching UAV autonomy. (shrink)

PurposeAdvance directives have been criticized for failing to help physicians make decisions consistent with patients’ wishes. This pilot study sought to determine if an interactive, computer-based decision aid that generates an advance directive can help physicians accurately translate patients’ wishes into treatment decisions.MethodsWe recruited 19 patient-participants who had each previously created an advance directive using a computer-based decision aid, and 14 physicians who had no prior knowledge of the patient-participants. For each advance directive, three physicians were randomly assigned to review (...) the advance directive and make five to six treatment decisions for each of six (potentially) end-of-life clinical scenarios.From the three individual physicians’ responses, a “consensus physician response” was generated for each treatment decision (total decisions = 32). This consensus response was shared with the patient whose advance directive had been reviewed, and she/he was then asked to indicate how well the physician translated his/her wishes into clinical decisions.ResultsPatient-participants agreed with the consensus physician responses 84 percent (508/608) of the time, including 82 percent agreement on whether to provide mechanical ventilation, and 75 percent on decisions about cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR).Across the six vignettes, patient-participants’ rating of how well physicians translated their advance directive into medical decisions was 8.4 (range = 6.5-10, where 1 = extremely poorly, and 10 = extremely well). Physicians’ overall rating of their confidence at accurately translating patients’ wishes into clinical decisions was 7.8 (range = 6.1-9.3, 1 = not at all confident, 10 = extremely confident).ConclusionFor simulated cases, a computer-based decision aid for advance care planning can help physicians more confidently make end-of-life decisions that patients will endorse. (shrink)

In Imagination, Jim Davies explains that most humans have mental imagery: an ability to make pictures in the mind without immediate perceptual input-as we do when we dream. Davies writes programs that enable computers to do something similar. Given a few words of description, a computer can generate pictures with several objects arranged in appropriate ways. Jonathan Gilmore’s Apt Imaginings is about whether engagement in works of fiction is continuous or discontinuous with how we deal with people and objects in (...) everyday life. He argues for discontinuity. In constructing a critical framework within which to evaluate these two books, I use Kenneth Craik’s theory of mental models. Craik’s theory enables us to understand how we humans have evolved to imagine possible futures, to plan and to act in relation to them, and also to imagine what might be going on in other people’s minds. (shrink)

Se analiza el debate actual sobre el concepto de Escuela de Salamanca. Se muestran las nuevas propuestas de los estudiosos: su carácter global (no solo Salamanca); su alcance interdisciplinar (no solo teológico, también jurídico, económico, sociopolítico, etc); la cuestión de los miembros también experimenta una ampliación, aunque siempre se señala un cierto cordón umbilical con los Maestros salmantinos; todo ello dentro de un marco temporal que se extiende durante el siglo XVI y primera mitad del XVII. Estas nuevas perspectivas no (...) excluyen los elementos tradicionales, sino que amplían y desarrollan el concepto primitivo, pero con carácter inclusivo. Por último, se aborda el tema de las condiciones de posibilidad de la Escuela, que se contextualiza en un ámbito histórico que la hace posible. Al término del estudio se ofrece un posible nuevo concepto de la Escuela, todavía _in fieri_. (shrink)

La psiquiatría nace con el siglo XIX, la fenomenología con el XX. Desde el advenimiento de la segunda ha querido la primera ver en ella una vía para la superación del positivismo que la atenazaba desde su mismo origen. Uno de sus intentos más logrados fue el del psiquiatra Ludwig Binswanger a lo largo de los años veinte del pasado siglo. Recorrió en ese tiempo las Investigaciones lógicas de Husserl y ensayó su acercamiento a la psicología estructural. Proponemos que una (...) deficiente lectura de las posibilidades de la fenomenología ―comprensible en su prematuridad, desgraciada en su ímpetu anti-(neo)kantiano― impidió que reconociera su horizonte trascendental y así pudiera entrever caminos de acceso al mundo, a la persona y a su concreto sufrimiento. Para concluir presentamos el intento que supone el proyecto La mirada filosófica como mirada médica por recuperar aquella problematicidad y ahondar en una aproximación respetuosa al padecer, tal como aparece, sin violentarlo por el concepto. (shrink)

Prominent thinkers such as Jurgen Habermas and Michael Sandel are warning that biomedical enhancements will undermine fundamental political values. Yet whether biomedical enhancements will undermine such values depends on how biomedical enhancements will function, how they will be administered and to whom. Since only few enhancements are obtainable, it is difficult to tell whether these predictions are sound. Nevertheless, such warnings are extremely valuable. As a society we must, at the very least, be aware of developments that could have harmful (...) consequences. Indeed, if important values were to be jeopardized, we should take appropriate measures to protect them. This paper focuses on four central values: solidarity, personal responsibility, equality and autonomy. It delineates the conditions under which biomedical enhancements would undermine these values. It also details the circumstances under which these values would be unaffected by enhancements as well as those under which they would be promoted. Specifying these conditions is valuable; it would enable society to prepare appropriate ethical guidelines and policy responses in advance. (shrink)

This paper explores the intertwining of uncertainty and values. We consider an important but underexplored field of fundamental uncertainty and values in decision-making. Some proposed methodologies to deal with fundamental uncertainty have included potential surprise theory, scenario planning and hypothetical retrospection. We focus on the principle of uncertainty transduction in hypothetical retrospection as an illustrative case of how values interact with fundamental uncertainty. We show that while uncertainty transduction appears intuitive in decision contexts it nevertheless fails in important (...) ranges of strategic game-theoretic cases. The methodological reasons behind the failure are then examined. (shrink)

This chapter provides a classification scheme for artificial intelligence (AI) predictions, and tools for analyzing their reliability and uncertainties. It presents a series of brief case studies of some of the most famous AI predictions: the initial Dartmouth AI conference; Hubert Dreyfus' criticism of AI; Ray Kurzweil's predictions in The Age of Spiritual Machines; and Stephen Omohundro's AI Drives. The chapter takes every falsifiable statement about future AI to be a prediction. Thus the following four categories are all predictions: Timelines (...) and outcome predictions, Scenarios, Plans, and Issues and metastatements. The following schema was suggested by a review of the AI predictions literature : Causal models, Non‐causal models, The outside view, Philosophical arguments, and Expert judgment. The chapter looks at four prominent AI predictions, and analyses their accuracy, attempting to gain insights that will be useful for assessing future prediction. (shrink)

Background and Aim: Global trends and national policies have made internationalization and paying attention to the international markets of higher education inevitable on the one hand and becoming a legal requirement of Iranian medical sciences universities on the other hand. Therefore, the main goal of this article was to show, by examining the experience of international marketing of higher education in Tehran University of Medical Sciences, what are the futures of international marketing of higher education in medical sciences? Materials and (...) methods: in this documented data and the views, knowledge and lived experiences of the beneficiaries of the University of Medical Sciences were the basis of the study, and in the following, the methods of documentary studies, trend analysis, brainstorming, expert panel, theme analysis and scenario planning were used. Results: The most important achievement of this article is that among the challenges facing the international marketing of higher education in the University of Medical Sciences, two driving forces have the highest importance and uncertainty in shaping the future of this issue, including: sustainable security and cultural development. Conclusion: The normalization of political and economic relations with the world along with appropriate cultural development inside and outside the university and acceptance of cultural, racial, religious, intellectual, ethnic and gender differences strengthens the marketing process of higher education. In such a situation, the risk of investing in providing international higher education will be reduced. Therefore, the most expensive and the most important uncertainty facing the country's universities in international marketing is the attitude and approach of science and technology governance to the relations and structure governing the international system. (shrink)

Across the applied ethics literatures are a growing number of ethical tools: decision-support methodologies that encourage multi-stakeholder deliberative engagement with the social and moral issues arising from technology assessment and environmental management processes. This article presents a novel ethical tool for deliberation on the issue of environmental justice between current and future generations over long time frames. This ethical tool combines two approaches, linking John Dewey's concept of dramatic rehearsal - an empathetic and imaginative ethical deliberation process; with the methodologies (...) of backcasting - a type of scenario planning technique drawn from the future studies literature. The proposed hybrid 'Deweyan Backcasting' approach combines a creative process of devising multi-stakeholder visions of potentially desirable futures, with practical evaluation of the technical, social and political networks necessary to make such futures happen. It is suggested that such a model can provide a fruitful means for evaluating intergenerational environmental equity issues in long-range policy and planning. (shrink)

Foreword -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction to corporate social responsibility and ethics -- Business ethics and the meetings and events industry -- Strategies for sustainable meetings -- Social responsibility and culture -- Meetings, events, and environmental science -- Shared value and strategic corporate responsibility -- Communication, marketing, and public relations -- Sustainable supply chains for meetings and events -- Sustainability measurement and evaluation -- Sustainability reporting for meetings and events -- Risk management and legal considerations -- Backcasting and (...) class='Hi'>scenario planning for a sustainable meetings and events industry -- Glossary -- Index. (shrink)

(2014). Preface. World Futures: Vol. 70, Strategy, Story, and Emergence: Essays on Scenario Planning, pp. 1-1.

This text proposes a generic epistemology, relatively independent of any discipline, with the aim of understanding newly emerging scientific objects and disciplines, as well as new logics of interdisciplinarity. This epistemology is also relatively independent of the present, requiring a thinking of the future as something other than the realization of the present ; somewhat like that suggested by the practice of scenario planning. It does not supplant ?disciplinary; epistemology, but seeks to demonstrate, through their simultaneous exercise, the (...) passage from a critical to a fictional paradigm, where disciplines are decentred and philosophies immersed in the sciences ; not the ?established; sciences we know from descriptions constructed along the lines of classical disciplines, but emergent or future sciences, for which the intention of the researcher is constitutive. The question is no longer that of the criteria of scientificity, but that of the identity of science. (shrink)