This article investigates the implications of string theory for the conception of scientific theory confirmation. The classical understanding of theory confirmation is based on the assumption that scientific theory building is underdetermined by the available empirical data. Several arguments are presented, which suggest a devaluation of this ‘principle of scientific underdetermination’ in the context of string theory. An altered conception of scientific progress emerges that is not based on the notion of theory succession.

The subjective Everettian approach to quantum mechanics presented by Deutsch and Wallace fails to constitute an empirically viable theory of quantum phenomena. The decision theoretic implementation of the Born rule realized in this approach provides no basis for rejecting Everettian quantum mechanics in the face of empirical data that contradicts the Born rule. The approach of Greaves and Myrvold, which provides a subjective implementation of the Born rule as well but derives it from empirical data rather than decision theoretic arguments, (...) avoids the problem faced by Deutsch and Wallace and is empirically viable. However, there is good reason to cast doubts on its scientific value. (shrink)

String theory has played a highly influential role in theoretical physics for nearly three decades and has substantially altered our view of the elementary building principles of the Universe. However, the theory remains empirically unconfirmed, and is expected to remain so for the foreseeable future. So why do string theorists have such a strong belief in their theory? This book explores this question, offering a novel insight into the nature of theory assessment itself. Dawid approaches the topic from a (...) unique position, having extensive experience in both philosophy and high-energy physics. He argues that string theory is just the most conspicuous example of a number of theories in high-energy physics where non-empirical theory assessment has an important part to play. Aimed at physicists and philosophers of science, the book does not use mathematical formalism and explains most technical terms. (shrink)

The discovery of the Higgs particle required a signal of 5σ significance. The rigid application of that condition is a convention that disregards more specific aspects of the given experiment. In particular, it does not account for the characteristics of the look elsewhere effect in the individual experimental context. The paper relates this aspect of data analysis to the question as to what extent theoretical reasoning should be admitted to play a role in the assessment of the significance of empirical (...) data. (shrink)

It has been argued in Dawid that physicists at times generate substantial trust in an empirically unconfirmed theory based on observations that lie beyond the theory’s intended domain. A crucial role in the reconstruction of this argument of “non-empirical confirmation” is played by limitations to scientific underdetermination. The present paper discusses the question as to how generic the role of limitations to scientific underdetermination really is. It is argued that assessing such limitations is essential for generating trust in any (...) theory’s predictions, be it empirically confirmed or not. The emerging view suggests that empirical and non-empirical confirmation are more closely related to each other than one may expect at first glance. (shrink)

The aim of this paper is to examine Jizang’s theory of knowledge and truth in terms of contemporary philosophy. Firstly, I present the main areas of Madhyamaka thought, especially those concerning human knowledge and cognition, enunciated in Nagarjuna’s Vigrahavyāvartani. Secondly, I raise the issue of the acceptance of Madhyamaka in the area of Chinese thought, which provides us with the question of the inception and development of the sānlùn zōng – the Three Treatises School. Thirdly, I expound the main points (...) and key notions of Jizang’s philosophy: the crucial concepts of the “refutation of erroneous views as the illumination of right views” and “the Four Levels of the Two Kinds of Truth”. I try to explicate and develop these ideas in terms of modern epistemology, which in the first instance is related to the Münschausen trilemma. (shrink)

In the absence of empirical confirmation, scientists may judge a theory's chances of being viable based on a wide range of arguments. The paper argues that such arguments can differ substantially with regard to their structural similarly to empirical confirmation. Arguments that resemble empirical confirmation in a number of crucial respects provide a better basis for reliable judgement and can, in a Bayesian sense, amount to significant \textit{non-empirical} confirmation. It is shown that three kinds of non-empirical confirmation that have been (...) specified in earlier work do satisfy those conditions. (shrink)

In this paper I analyse the problem of free will and determinism as it pertains to the Austrian School of Economics. I demonstrate that despite the fact they subscribe to the concept of causality,...

According to an argument by Colin Howson, the no-miracles argument is contingent on committing the base-rate fallacy and is therefore bound to fail. We demonstrate that Howson’s argument only applies to one of two versions of the NMA. The other version, which resembles the form in which the argument was initially presented by Putnam and Boyd, remains unaffected by his line of reasoning. We provide a formal reconstruction of that version of the NMA and show that it is valid. Finally, (...) we demonstrate that the use of subjective priors is consistent with the realist implication of the NMA and show that a core worry with respect to the suggested form of the NMA can be dispelled. (shrink)

Scientific theories are hard to find, and once scientists have found a theory, H, they often believe that there are not many distinct alternatives to H. But is this belief justified? What should scientists believe about the number of alternatives to H, and how should they change these beliefs in the light of new evidence? These are some of the questions that we will address in this article. We also ask under which conditions failure to find an alternative to H (...) confirms the theory in question. This kind of reasoning is frequently used in science and therefore deserves a careful philosophical analysis. 1 Introduction2 The Conceptual Framework3 The No Alternatives Argument4 Discussion I: A Quantitative Analysis of the No Alternatives Argument5 Discussion II: The Number of Alternatives and the Problem of Underdetermination6 ConclusionsAppendix AAppendix B. (shrink)

Celem niniejszego artykułu jest systematyczny namysł i próba oceny badań Dariusza Kuboka nad krytycyzmem, związanych z monografią Krytycyzm, sceptycyzm i zetetycyzm we wczesnej filozofii greckiej, która problematyzuje krytycyzm z perspektywy filozoficznej i prezentuje nowy paradygmat interpretacyjny wczesnej filozofii greckiej. Artykuł składa się z trzech części. Pierwsza przybliża część dorobku publikacyjnego Polskiego Badacza, będącego drogą do jego głównego dzieła. Druga omawia problem, metodę i strukturę opus magnum. Trzecia poddaje ocenie badania, a także ich znaczenie z perspektywy filozoficznej oraz ogólnohumanistycznej.

Although Karl Jaspers was not a practicing Christian, a religion has always been a very important part of his considerations. The philosopher rejected the truth of revelation, but believed that faith can be very important part of human life. What we call “philosophy of religion” in Jaspers thought is not reflection about religious revelation, but consist of inquires about faith in that revelation. Author tried to ascertain if on the ground of Jaspers’s philosophy, religion, not being true in scientific sense, (...) can be true in other sense and if so – what sense of truth would it be. In wider perspective the question is: what “the truth of religion” means? Author shows similarities and dissimilarities between religious faith and Jaspers' concept of philosophical faith. (shrink)

It is argued that the high degree of trust in the Higgs particle before its discovery raises the question of a Bayesian perspective on data analysis in high energy physics in an interesting way that differs from other suggestions regarding the deployment of Bayesian strategies in the field.

Bradley develops some theory of the linear opinion pool, in apparent contradiction to results of Dawid et al.. We investigate the sources of these contradictions, and in particular identify a mathematical error in Bradley that invalidates his main result.

We provide a philosophical reconstruction and analysis of the debate on the scientific status of cosmic inflation that has played out in recent years. In a series of critical papers, Ijjas et al. have questioned the scientificality of the current views on cosmic inflation. Proponents of cosmic inflation have in turn defended the scientific credentials of their approach. We argue that, while this defense, narrowly construed, is successful against Ijjas et al., the latter's reasoning does point to a significant epistemic (...) issue that arises with respect to inflation. A broadening of the concept of theory assessment is needed to address that issue in an adequate way. (shrink)

We discuss the proposal by Sebens and Carroll to derive the Born rule in Everettian quantum mechanics from a principle they call ‘ESP-QM’. We argue that the proposal fails: ESP-QM is not, as Sebens and Carroll argue, a ‘less general version’ of an independently plausible principle, ESP, and can only be motivated by the empirical success of quantum mechanics, including use of the Born rule. Therefore, ESP-QM cannot have the status of a meta-theoretical principle of reasoning and provides no viable (...) basis for deriving the Born rule. (shrink)

Author: Lipski Dawid Title: WŁADYSŁAW TATARKIEWICZ’S ANALYSIS OF ARISTOTLE’S PHILOSOPHY SYSTEM (Władysława Tatarkiewicza analiza systemu filozofii Arystotelesa) Source: Filo-Sofija year: 2011, vol:.13/14, number: 2011/2-3, pages: 521-534 Keywords: WŁADYSŁAW TATARKIEWICZ, METAPHYSICS OF ARISTOTLE’S Discipline: PHILOSOPHY Language: POLISH Document type: ARTICLE Publication order reference (Primary author’s office address): E-mail: www:The paper attempts to present and critique the original analysis of Aristotle’s philosophy system, especially the layout and meaning of basic concepts in this system, which was performed by Władysław Tatarkiewicz in his (...) dissertation. The author, trying to conceive the overall philosophy of Aristotle through analysis of its key concepts, advanced thesis that Aristotle’s philosophical views on the “science of being” do not form a single compact system, but rather a plural and multi-layered model, in which each of the individual “layers” has an appropriate system of concepts. Although this diversity causes certain pluralism of principles within the system, there is one point – νοũς, which remains the principle uniting the whole order. It is the guarantor of order, unity of the system, but at the same time it also allows differences of entities. Divine νοũς becomes the last word in metaphysics. Keywords: Władysław Tatarkiewicz, metaphysics of Aristotle’s. (shrink)

It is argued that the evolution of fundamental microphysics throughout the twentieth century is characterised by two interrelated developments. On the one hand, the experimental signatures which confirm theoretical statements are moving towards the fringes of the phenomenal world and, at the same time, leave increasingly wide spaces for entirely theoretical reasoning with little or no empirical interference. On the other hand, assessments of limitations to scientific underdetermination gain importance within the theoretical process.

Pico was generally perceived as a representative of the Pelagian heresy and a supporter of absolute freedom of man. However, more detailed analysis of his works reveals that in his views he was much more traditional than it used to be judged. Although Pico does not negate human freedom, he has consistently stressed the necessity of grace in salvation. So, in the question of free will Pico represents traditional post-Augustinian school and advocates, also present at the Thomas’, graduated concept of (...) grace. (shrink)

String dualities establish empirical equivalence between theories that often look entirely different with respect to their basic ontology and physical structure. Therefore, they represent a particularly interesting example of empirical equivalence in physics. However, the status of duality relations in string physics differs substantially from the traditional understanding of the role played by empirical equivalence. The paper specifies three important differences and argues that they are related to a substantially altered view on the underdetermination of theory building.

The universal acceptance of atomism in physics and chemistry in the early 20th century went along with an altered view on the epistemic status of microphysical conjectures. Contrary to the prevalent understanding during the 19th century, on the new view unobservable objects could be ‘discovered’. It is argued in the present paper that this shift can be connected to the implicit integration of elements of meta-empirical theory assessment into the concept of theory confirmation.

The current status of string theory is assessed quite differently by most of the theory’s exponents than by the majority of physicists in other fields. While the former tend to have a high degree of trust in string theory’s viability, the latter largely share a substantially more skeptical point of view. This article argues that the controversy can be best understood in terms of a paradigmatic rift between the two sides over their understandings of theory assessment. An attempt is made (...) to evaluate the two conflicting paradigms on their own terms. †To contact the author, please write to: Institute Vienna Circle, University of Vienna, Universtitätscampus Spitalgasse 2‐4, Hof 1, 1090 Vienna, Austria; e‐mail: richard.dawid@univie.ac.at. (shrink)

We survey a variety of possible explications of the term “Individual Risk.” These in turn are based on a variety of interpretations of “Probability,” including classical, enumerative, frequency, formal, metaphysical, personal, propensity, chance and logical conceptions of probability, which we review and compare. We distinguish between “groupist” and “individualist” understandings of probability, and explore both “group to individual” and “individual to group” approaches to characterising individual risk. Although in the end that concept remains subtle and elusive, some pragmatic suggestions for (...) progress are made. (shrink)

In my article I present David Armstrong's stance on properties, relations, particulars and states of affairs. I introduce this categories to show, at the most general level, his metaphysical system called factualism. My article consists of four parts, in each one I characterize following categories: 1. Properties 2. Relation 3. Particulars 4. States of affairs. I also discuss Armstrong's arguments considering the nature of those categories and their role in his philosophy. Also, I try to emphasis differences between Armstrong's factualism (...) and other contemporary metaphysical positions (Bundle theory and Trop theory). (shrink)

Archaeologists have been interested in Hollywood films for a few decades. What basically interested them was the theme of how cinema misperceives the practice of archaeology and its object of study (the past). In this paper I focus on How to Train Your Dragon (2010), 3-D animated film about Vikings for children. A film is always already a meta-film. Every film is, to use Hegelian distinction, a story in itself, presents more or less coherent story. At the same time, a (...) film is for itself, a meta-film, a meta-story which reflects on and encapsulates a more general context part of which is a particular film. In this paper both levels are scrutinised with regard to How to Train Your Dragon. My attention is paid especially to the ideological aspects of the film which presents a story about some vision of the past. It is an attempt of showing how archaeology, or more generally, the past is used to mask and stage at the same time elements of contemporary politics. (shrink)

Odczytywanie filozoficznego przedsięwzięcia Locke’a przede wszystkim jako krytyki kartezjańskiego natywizmu przysłania zwykle napięcia, jakimi obciążona jest myśl Anglika, oraz skutkuje przemilczeniem sporej części stojących za nią motywów. Choć nie zamierzam w prezentowanym tekście całkowicie zerwać z tą popularną wykładnią, chciałbym zaproponować ujęcie wolne od właściwych jej uproszczeń. Dzięki temu możliwe będzie ukazanie złożoności stosunku filozofii Locke’a do podstawowych idei natywizmu, wydobycie sprzecznych interesów, które Locke chciałby dzięki swojej refleksji pogodzić, oraz zasygnalizowanie w zakończeniu znaczenia wypracowanych przez niego rozwiązań dla późniejszych (...) form antropologicznego dyskursu. (shrink)