It is always possible to construct a real function f, given random quantities X and Y with continuous distribution functions F and G, respectively, in such a way that f(X) and f(Y), also random quantities, have both the same distribution function, say H. This result of De Finetti introduces an alternative way to somehow describe the `opinion' of a group of experts about a continuous random quantity by the construction of Fields of coincidence of opinions (FCO). A Field of coincidence (...) of opinions is a finite union of intervals where the opinions of the experts coincide with respect to that quantity of interest. We speculate on (dis)advantages of Fields of Opinion compared to usual `probability' measures of a group and on their relation with a continuous version of the well-known Allais' paradox. (shrink)

It is always possible to construct a real function φ, given random quantities X and Y with continuous distribution functions F and G, respectively, in such a way that φ(X) and φ(Y), also random quantities, have both the same distribution function, say H. This result of De Finetti introduces an alternative way to somehow describe the `opinion' of a group of experts about a continuous random quantity by the construction of Fields of coincidence of opinions (FCO). A Field of coincidence (...) of opinions is a finite union of intervals where the opinions of the experts coincide with respect to that quantity of interest. We speculate on (dis)advantages of Fields of Opinion compared to usual `probability' measures of a group and on their relation with a continuous version of the well-known Allais' paradox. (shrink)

This article outlines a theory of what affects the degree and nature of women's participation in the armed forces throughout history and across nations. Examining national security situations, military technology, military accession policies, demographic patterns, cultural values regarding gender, and structural patterns of gender roles, the article proposes a systematic theory of the conditions under which women's military roles expand and contract. The theory is then applied to analyze women's likely future role in armed forces. The military's need for personnel (...) has been the driving force behind expansion of women's military roles through history and across nations, but cultural values supporting gender equality also contribute and seem likely to have increased influence in the future. (shrink)

Soon after the book's publication in 1982, artist David Hockney read Lawrence Weschler's _Seeing Is Forgetting the Name of the Thing One Sees: A Life of Contemporary Artist Robert Irwin _and invited Weschler to his studio to discuss it, initiating a series of engrossing dialogues, gathered here for the first time. Weschler chronicles Hockney's protean production and speculations, including his scenic designs for opera, his homemade xerographic prints, his exploration of physics in relation to Chinese landscape painting, his investigations into (...) optical devices, his taking up of watercolor—and then his spectacular return to oil painting, around 2005, with a series of landscapes of the East Yorkshire countryside of his youth. These conversations provide an astonishing record of what has been Hockney's grand endeavor, nothing less than an exploration of "the structure of seeing" itself. (shrink)

The main purpose of this thesis is to explore de Finetti's ideas and contributions to decision theory. Such ideas are not as well-known as his work on probability. ;The first part of the work is placed in a unisubjective decision-making context. It starts by including a discussion on predictivism, an approach to statistics which de Finetti insisted on and which has only recently been rediscovered and advocated. ;The second part is placed in the context of group, or multisubjective, decision-making. This (...) area is well-known for its negative results, starting with Arrow's impossibility theorem. While being aware of such difficulties, de Finetti made important contributions to this field, which he saw as the appropriate context to approach basic concepts such as "objectivity" and Wald's admissibility theorem. Such concepts, together with exchangeability, illuminate the Bayesian position by also making connection with the non-Bayesian approach. ;The last part of the work starts with a critical discussion of classical methods which are unacceptable for Bayesians. Finally, an important application problem--environmental stress screening--is solved from a Bayesian predictivist point of view. (shrink)

This article uses Public Use Microsample data drawn from the 1990 census to explore the relationship between military presence, defined as the percentage of the local labor force in the active-duty armed forces, and women's employment and earnings across local labor market areas in the United States. Comparisons of local rates of unemployment and mean women's earnings are made between those LMAs in which the military plays a disproportionate role in the local labor market and those in which military presence (...) is low. Results suggest that women who live in labor market areas with a substantial military presence have, on average, lower annual earnings and higher rates of unemployment than their counterparts who live in nonmilitary LMAs. The argument is made that through the interaction of several socially situated conditions—including gender, family, labor markets, human capital, and place—the military emerges as a source of inequality in labor market outcomes for women working on or around military installations. (shrink)

The law of maturity is the belief that less-observed events are becoming mature and, therefore, more likely to occur in the future. Previous studies have shown that the assumption of infinite exchangeability contradicts the law of maturity. In particular, it has been shown that infinite exchangeability contradicts probabilistic descriptions of the law of maturity such as the gambler’s belief and the belief in maturity. We show that the weaker assumption of finite exchangeability is compatible with both the gambler’s belief and (...) belief in maturity. We provide sufficient conditions under which these beliefs hold under finite exchangeability. These conditions are illustrated with commonly used parametric models. (shrink)

The development of neuropsychological assessment methods using virtual reality (VR) is a valid and promising option for the detection of cognitive impairment in the older people, focusing on activities composed of tasks of multiple demands. This study verified the association of age, schooling, and general cognitive status on the performance of neurologically healthy older adults in ECO-VR, a virtual reality task of multiple demands for neuropsychological assessment. A total of 111 older adults answered a sociodemographic questionnaire, the Mini Mental State (...) Examination, the Vocabulary subtest of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Adults (third edition), and the ECO-VR. Correlation analyses, multiple linear regression, and comparisons between groups (effects by age and schooling groups) were used to evaluate the results. The ECO-VR total score was significantly associated with age, years of education, MMSE, and Vocabulary subtest. The linear regression models identified that age was the main predictor for total score and rule breaking of ECO-VR. According to the univariate analysis, it was identified the main effect of age group and schooling group in the total ECO-VR score, but there was no interaction effect. The results are discussed in order to understand the role of sociodemographic characteristics in the performance of older adults in a virtual reality task of multiple demands. It was also verified the possibility use of virtual reality for neuropsychological assessment of older adults. (shrink)

The current study verified the association between cognitive process such as attention, executive functioning, and legal capacity in patients with bipolar disorder. The sample consisted of 72 participants, assorted to episodic patients, euthymic patients, and healthy controls. We used the following neuropsychological measures: subtests of the Wechsler Abbreviated Intelligence Scale : vocabulary and matrix reasoning; Continuous Performance Test ; Five Digit Test ; and Rey–Osterrieth Complex Figure. Euthymic patients expressed slower processing speed compared to HC. They tended to make (...) more errors with slightly worse discrimination, suggesting more impulsiveness. On the contrary, episodic patients showed worse discrimination, committed more omissions, were more inconsistent with regard to response speed, showed more difficulties in organizing their actions, and were more rigid. The results suggest that bipolar patients in episode express more cognitive impairments that can compromise the quality of legal capacity. These results highlight the need for more protective support for episodic BD patients regarding legal capacity. (shrink)

Die zunehmende Bedeutung inter-und transdisziplinärer Forschungsfelder wirft die Frage nach entsprechenden methodischen und wissenschaftstheoretischen Grundlagen auf. Die Auseinandersetzung mit dieser Frage führt hier zur Entwicklung eines interdisziplinären Forschungsablaufes mit zwei methodischen Kernbereichen, die Systemintegration und Innovationsgenese. Eine wissenschaftstheoretische Betrachtung zeigt auf, dass sich die interdisziplinäre Forschung selbst als eigenständige Disziplin begreifen lässt, und ihr Synthesepotential nicht als zentrales Unterscheidungsmerkmal zu anderen Disziplinen angesehen werden kann. Vielmehr ist die hier entwickelte Methodologie zunächst analytisch und im Wesentlichen auf die Erschließung des Forschungspotentials (...) im Spannungsfeld der Einzel Wissenschaften ausgerichtet. Es entsteht somit eine erkenntnisleitende interdisziplinäre Methodologie, die sich auf komplexe bzw. kooperationsintensive Forschungsinhalte, sowohl im akademischen Bereich als auch auf Fragestellungen aus Industrie und Gesellschaft, anwenden lässt. The increasing significance of inter-and transdisciplinary research raises the demand for principles with respect to methodology and philosophy of science. The discussion of this question leads to the development of an interdisciplinary research process with two methodic core areas: system integration and inducement of innovation. It will be shown that interdisciplinary research can be understood as a discipline of its own, while its potential of synthesis cannot be declared as a central distinctive feature relative to other disciplines. In fact the developed methodology is firstly aligned analytically, with a focus on the research potential from the area of tension between individual disciplines. This results in an interdisciplinary methodology, generating epistemological progress, which can be applied to complex and cooperation intensive research in academia as well as industry and society. (shrink)

En los últimos cuatro años, el gobierno de Cambiemos ha realizado un giro en las políticas de memoria y de educación en Argentina. Extendiendo a nivel nacional ciertas políticas ya presentes en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, con el triunfo de Mauricio Macri en el gobierno nacional y la asunción de Claudio Avruj a la Secretaría de Derechos Humanos y Pluralismo Cultural, se visibilizó a través de acciones y discursos una transformación del área. El presente artículo analiza este giro del (...) período, observando cómo se privilegió cierto discurso mientras se buscó desarmar el construido por los gobiernos kirchneristas. Mientras se le quitó presupuesto a los sitios de memoria, archivos e investigadores, se establecieron fuertes lazos con quienes construyen la memoria del Holocausto en el país. Estas políticas mostraron además los lazos de Cambiemos con un sector de la comunidad judía local. (shrink)

. The uniform prior distribution is often seen as a mathematical description of noninformativeness. This paper uses the well-known Three Prisoners Paradox to examine the impossibility of maintaining noninformativeness throughout hierarchization. The Paradox has been solved by Bayesian conditioning over the choice made by the Warder when asked to name a prisoner who will be shot. We generalize the paradox to situations of N prisoners, k executions and m announcements made by the Warder. We then extend the consequences of hierarchically (...) placing uniform and symmetrical priors for the probability p of the Warder naming Prisoner B, say. We prove that breaks of indifference and neutrality caused by assignment of uniform and symmetrical priors in lieu of degenerate indifference probabilities hold in general. Speaking of unknown probabilities or of probability of a probability must be forbidden as meaningless. Bruno de Finetti, 1977 I regard the use of hierarchical chains as a technique helping you to sharpen your subjective probabilities. I. J. Good, 1981. (shrink)

The increasing significance of inter- and transdisciplinary research raises the demand for principles with respect to methodology and philosophy of science. The discussion of this question leads to the development of an interdisciplinary research process with two methodic core areas: system integration and inducement of innovation. It will be shown that interdisciplinary research can be understood as a discipline of its own, while its potential of synthesis cannot be declared as a central distinctive feature relative to other disciplines. In fact (...) the developed methodology is firstly aligned analytically, with a focus on the research potential from the area of tension between individual disciplines. This results in an interdisciplinary methodology, generating epistemological progress, which can be applied to complex and cooperation intensive research in academia as well as industry and society. (shrink)

Ocherk 1. Voprosy ontologii -- Ocherk 2. Voprosy ėtiki i ėstetiki -- Ocherk 3. Voprosy gnoseologii i aksiologii.

Die Reihe Beihefte zur Zeitschrift für die neutestamentliche Wissenschaft (BZNW) ist eine der ältesten undrenommiertesten internationalen Buchreihen zur neutestamentlichen Wissenschaft. Seit 1923 publiziert sie wegweisende Forschungsarbeiten zum frühen Christentum und angrenzenden Themengebieten. Die Reihe ist historisch-kritisch verankert und steht neuen methodischen Ansätzen, die unser Verständnis des Neuen Testaments befördern, gleichfalls offen gegenüber.

The increasing significance of inter- and transdisciplinary research raises the demand for principles with respect to methodology and philosophy of science. The discussion of this question leads to the development of an interdisciplinary research process with two methodic core areas: system integration and inducement of innovation. It will be shown that interdisciplinary research can be understood as a discipline of its own, while its potential of synthesis cannot be declared as a central distinctive feature relative to other disciplines. In fact (...) the developed methodology is firstly aligned analytically, with a focus on the research potential from the area of tension between individual disciplines. This results in an interdisciplinary methodology, generating epistemological progress, which can be applied to complex and cooperation intensive research in academia as well as industry and society. (shrink)

Prologue, invitation to thinking about God In the Hebrew Bible? -- Part I, questions about God? -- Why does God in the Bible have a body? -- What do God's body parts in the Bible mean? -- Why is God angry in the Bible? -- Does God in the Bible have gender or sexuality? -- Part II, questions about God in the world? -- What can creation tell us about God? -- Who-or what-is the Satan? -- Why do people suffer (...) according to the Hebrew Bible? -- Epilogue, God in the Bible and beyond. (shrink)

In An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, W. Feller established a way of ending the St. Petersburg paradox by the introduction of an entrance fee, and provided it for the case in which the game is played with a fair coin. A natural generalization of his method is to establish the entrance fee for the case in which the probability of heads is θ. The deduction of those fees is the main result of Section 2. We then propose (...) a Bayesian approach to the problem. When the probability of heads is θ the expected gain of the St. Petersburg game is finite, therefore there is no paradox. However, if one takes θ as a random variable assuming values in the paradox may hold, which is counter-intuitive. In Section 3 we determine necessary conditions for the absence of paradox in the Bayesian approach and in Section 4 we establish the entrance fee for the case in which θ is uniformly distributed in, for in this case there is a paradox. (shrink)

Many books explain what is known about the universe. This book investigates what cannot be known. Rather than exploring the amazing facts that science, mathematics, and reason have revealed to us, this work studies what science, mathematics, and reason tell us cannot be revealed. In The Outer Limits of Reason, Noson Yanofsky considers what cannot be predicted, described, or known, and what will never be understood. He discusses the limitations of computers, physics, logic, and our own thought processes. Yanofsky describes (...) simple tasks that would take computers trillions of centuries to complete and other problems that computers can never solve; perfectly formed English sentences that make no sense; different levels of infinity; the bizarre world of the quantum; the relevance of relativity theory; the causes of chaos theory; math problems that cannot be solved by normal means; and statements that are true but cannot be proven. He explains the limitations of our intuitions about the world -- our ideas about space, time, and motion, and the complex relationship between the knower and the known. Moving from the concrete to the abstract, from problems of everyday language to straightforward philosophical questions to the formalities of physics and mathematics, Yanofsky demonstrates a myriad of unsolvable problems and paradoxes. Exploring the various limitations of our knowledge, he shows that many of these limitations have a similar pattern and that by investigating these patterns, we can better understand the structure and limitations of reason itself. Yanofsky even attempts to look beyond the borders of reason to see what, if anything, is out there. (shrink)

The Full Bayesian Significance Test, FBST, is extensively reviewed. Its test statistic, a genuine Bayesian measure of evidence, is discussed in detail. Its behavior in some problems of statistical inference like testing for independence in contingency tables is discussed.

This chapter develops a perceptual solution to the epistemological problem of other minds, relying on central ideas from Maurice Merleau-Ponty's phenomenology. The Merleau-Pontian account is contrasted with another attempted perceptual solution to the other minds problem, and it is argued that only the former meets the phenomenologists' desideratum of providing an alternative to inferential solutions. The chapter also provides responses to various objections to the perceptual solution, including a pair of objections recently put forward by Alec Hyslop.

Richard Janko's acclaimed translation of Aristotle's _Poetics_ is accompanied by the most comprehensive commentary available in English that does not presume knowledge of the original Greek. Two other unique features are Janko's translations with notes of both the _Tractatus Coislinianus_, which is argued to be a summary of the lost second book of the Poetics, and fragments of Aristotle’s dialogue On Poets, including recently discovered texts about catharsis, which appear in English for the first time.

Study of Hans-Georg Gadamer's and Julius Stenzel's interpretations of Plato.

"Williams's masterful translation satisfies (at last!) a long-standing need. There are lots of good translations of Augustine's great work, but until now we have been forced to choose between those that strive to replicate in English something of the majesty and beauty of Augustine's Latin style and those that opt instead to convey the careful precision of his philosophical terminology and argumentation. Finally, Williams has succeeded in capturing both sides of Augustine's mind in a richly evocative, impeccably reliable, elegantly readable (...) presentation of one of the most impressive achievements in Western thought--Augustine's Confessions." --Scott MacDonald, Professor of Philosophy and Norma K. Regan Professor in Christian Studies, Cornell University. (shrink)