This chapter contains sections titled: Hubbert's Oil Supply Forecast Energy Forecast Methodology Energy Forecast Trend References and Further Reading.

Natural language processing is a critical part of the digital transformation. NLP enables user-friendly interactions between machine and human by making computers understand human languages. Intelligent chatbot is an essential application of NLP to allow understanding of users’ utterance and responding in understandable sentences for specific applications simulating human-to-human conversations and interactions for problem solving or Q&As. This research studies emerging technologies for NLP-enabled intelligent chatbot development using a systematic patent analytic approach. Some intelligent text-mining techniques are applied, including document (...) term frequency analysis for key terminology extractions, clustering method for identifying the subdomains, and Latent Dirichlet Allocation for finding the key topics of patent set. This research utilizes the Derwent Innovation database as the main source for global intelligent chatbot patent retrievals. (shrink)

The dynamic development of science and technology in the last decades has led to new challenges in jurisprudence. This holds for individual fields of doctrinal law as well as the concerned fields of jurisprudence. It is especially significant for the structure of justice, the efficiency of law as a steering instrument of society, and the empirical conditions of legal responsibility. In a jurisprudential perspective, the philosophy of law is rather engaged with the adaptiveness of its traditional principles and categories or (...) the capacity to come to terms with the new developments and less concerned with concrete matters of law. (shrink)

Predicting the future state of a system has always been a natural motivation for science and practical applications. Such a topic, beyond its obvious technical and societal relevance, is also interesting from a conceptual point of view. This owes to the fact that forecasting lends itself to two equally radical, yet opposite methodologies. A reductionist one, based on first principles, and the naïve-inductivist one, based only on data. This latter view has recently gained some attention in response to the (...) availability of unprecedented amounts of data and increasingly sophisticated algorithmic analytic techniques. The purpose of this note is to assess critically the role of big data in reshaping the key aspects of forecasting and in particular the claim that bigger data leads to better predictions. Drawing on the representative example of weather forecasts we argue that this is not generally the case. We conclude by suggesting that a clever and context-dependent compromise between modelling and quantitative analysis stands out as the best forecasting strategy, as anticipated nearly a century ago by Richardson and von Neumann. (shrink)

Summary This essay recounts Hermann von Helmholtz's trip to represent Germany at the International Electrical Congress in Chicago in 1893 as well as his reception by various members of the American scientific, technological, and cultural elite in several other American cities. In doing so, it seeks to portray something of the vitality of the youthful and increasingly important American scientific community; of the strong relationship between American and German scientists, including how Helmholtz used and was used by them and (...) various other members of the American elite to promote science and culture in America as well as to promote his own and German interests; and, finally, of what many considered to be the close interactions between science and technology in the late nineteenth century. In short, the essay seeks to use Helmholtz's trip to capture a sense of the broader relationship among science, the nation-state, and cultural elites in Gilded-Age America and between Germany and America. (shrink)

This volume contains papers based on invited lectures from the 16th International Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science and Technology, descriptions of congress symposia, and other materials relating to the congress and DLMPST.

Solar energy has become an integral part of the economy of developed countries, so it is important to monitor the pace of its development, prospects, as well as the largest companies that produce solar panels since the supply of solar energy in a particular country directly depends on them. The study analyzes the shares of Canadian Solar Inc. and First Solar Inc. The purpose of the study is to study the possibility of forecasting the stock price of solar energy (...) companies using neural networks for the purpose of subsequent investment. The recurrent neural network LSTM is used in the article and this approach is based on complexity theory. Machine learning technologies are now being actively implemented in various sectors of the economy and are considered effective. The program used assigns different significance to the data of the last months and the data for the first months of the 1st year. The first year of the last 5 years of the company’s activity is taken as the first year since more distant data no longer have significant significance for the forecast. In the course of the study, a forecast of the stock price of Canadian Solar Inc. and First Solar Inc. for 245 days was obtained. Based on the results obtained, the following conclusions were made: 20 neurons of the network is not enough to make an accurate forecast, but the level of confidence in such a forecast is high enough, neural network forecasts are applicable in investing and are accurate enough to determine medium- and long-term trends, but these forecasts are not applicable for traders. The direction of improving the accuracy of neural network predictions is promising for further research. (shrink)

The author’s vision of the problem of long-term forecasting in education is presented in the article. The modern education, going beyond the limits of class-lesson learning system is gaining more and more territory in direct and figurative meanings. Its non-linear trajectory of movement and rhythm is a process that occurs by the model of Dispars - the principle of nomadic vital activity. The author is of the opinion that only a combination of forecasting with strategic and indicative planning (...) as in Foresight technology may in a certain extent contribute to the state regulation of the education system. (shrink)

Public policy and public opinion directly affect the image of the government, but due to the lack of appropriate monitoring and early warning tools, the government’s handling of credit changes is seriously lagging behind. In response to this problem, this paper integrates the internet, public information, market credit information, and other data, uses hidden Markov models and natural language processing technology, and establishes a modern government public policy and public opinion monitoring and early warning model to evaluate government credit in (...) real time; the government can formulate relevant policies based on the evaluation results to improve the government’s governance capabilities. Empirical analysis shows that, based on the dynamic scoring framework and Markov model, the government credit monitoring and early warning models established, respectively, have 90% of the reference value, and the analysis results have the same reference. This method can effectively predict the trend of hot online public opinion. The subsequent establishment of an online public opinion early warning system and an online public opinion guidance mechanism provided theoretical support. (shrink)

Abstract In this essay, a new approach for the ethical study of emerging technology ethics will be presented, called anticipatory technology ethics (ATE). The ethics of emerging technology is the study of ethical issues at the R&D and introduction stage of technology development through anticipation of possible future devices, applications, and social consequences. I will argue that a major problem for its development is the problem of uncertainty, which can only be overcome through methodologically sound forecasting and futures studies. (...) I will then consider three contemporary approaches to the ethics of emerging technologies that use forecasting: ethical technology assessment, the techno-ethical scenarios approach and the ETICA approach, and I considered their strengths and weaknesses. Based on this critical study, I then present my own approach: ATE. ATE is a conceptually and methodologically rich approach for the ethical analysis of emerging technologies that incorporates a large variety of ethical principles, issues, objects and levels of analysis, and research aims. It is ready to be applied to contemporary and future emerging technologies. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11569-012-0141-7 Authors Philip A. E. Brey, Department of Philosophy, School of Behavioral Sciences, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands Journal NanoEthics Online ISSN 1871-4765 Print ISSN 1871-4757. (shrink)

In this paper an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model was used to help cars dealers recognize the many characteristics of cars, including manufacturers, their location and classification of cars according to several categories including: Make, Model, Type, Origin, DriveTrain, MSRP, Invoice, EngineSize, Cylinders, Horsepower, MPG_Highway, Weight, Wheelbase, Length. ANN was used in prediction of the number of miles per gallon when the car is driven in the city(MPG_City). The results showed that ANN model was able to predict MPG_City with 97.50 (...) % accuracy. The factor of DriveTrain has the most influence on MPG_City evaluation. Similar studies can be carried out for the evaluation of other characteristics of cars. (shrink)

How can law ethically regulate a future of fast-changing technologies? From recent inventions to science fiction, Future Law explores how law, ethics and regulation must respond to new technologies that challenge the boundaries of our ethics.

Problems of the relationship between man and nature are becoming a steadily increasing portion of the questions facing modern civilization. Moreover, their character is changing significantly. Only two or three decades ago, the most acute problems were an unending list of "shortages" of one type or another, while the environment in which men lived was regarded primarily as a set of resources without which things could not be produced. Today it is the threat of excessive human influences on nature that (...) has taken center stage. The biosphere is beginning to be perceived on the level of its capacity to assimilate what has been produced, and the growing question is how best to combine the scientific-technological creations of man with the objective processes occurring in nature. (shrink)

ArgumentWe continue our analysis of modeling practices that focus more on qualitative understanding of system behavior than the attempt to provide sharp forecasts. The argument here is built around three episodes: the ambitious work of the Princeton Meteorological Project; the seemingly simple models of convection in weather systems by Edward Lorenz at MIT; and then finally analysis of the dripping faucet by Robert Shaw and the Dynamical Systems Collective at UC Santa Cruz. Using the Princeton Meteorological Project as an argumentative (...) foil for the later chaos work of Lorenz and Shaw, we first show how the epistemological interest of modeling came to shift fromissuingpredictions toprobingthe very meaning and limits of prediction. The second step of our argument shows that what may be seen in one context of use as a modeling technology that is error ridden, imprecise, or inadequate, may be parsed completely differently in another context. This argument about technology and practice, we argue, feeds through to epistemological conceptions of error. Far from being something that can be defined in the absolute, the notion of error is shown to be contextually plastic. (shrink)

The usage of new and progressive technologies brings with it new types of security threats and security incidents. Their number is constantly growing.The current trend is to move from reactive to proactive activities. For this reason, the organization should be aware of the current security situation, including the forecasting of the future state. The main goal of organizations, especially their security operation centres, is to handle events, identify potential security incidents, and effectively forecast the network security situation awareness (NSSA). (...) In this paper, we focus on increasing the efficiency of utilization of this part of cybersecurity. The paper’s main aim is to compare selected statistical models and models based on neural networks to find out which models are more suitable for NSSA forecasting. Based on the analysis provided in this paper, neural network methods prove a more accurate alternative than classical statistical prediction models in NSSA forecasting. In addition, the paper analyses the selection criteria and suitability of time series, which do not only reflect information about the total number of security events but represent a category of security event (e.g. recon scanning), port or protocol. (shrink)

As one of the key technologies for accelerating the construction of the ubiquitous Internet of Things, demand response not only guides users to participate in power market operations but also increases the randomness of grid operations and the difficulty of load forecasting. In order to solve the problem of rough feature engineering processing and low prediction accuracy, a short-term load forecasting model of LSTM neural network considering demand response is proposed. First of all, in view of the strong (...) randomness and complexity of input features, the weighted method is used to process multiple input features to strengthen the contribution of effective features and tap the potential value of features. Secondly, an improved genetic algorithm is used to obtain the best LSTM parameters; finally, the special gate structure of the LSTM model is used to selectively control the influence of input variables on the model parameters and perform load forecasting. The experimental results show that the research has high prediction accuracy and application value and provides a new way for the development of power load forecasting. (shrink)

Cosmology seems extremely remote from everyday human practice and experience. It is usually taken for granted that cosmological data cannot rationally influence our beliefs about the fate of humanity—and possible other intelligent species—except perhaps in the extremely distant future, when the issue of “heat death” (in an ever-expanding universe) becomes actual. Here, an attempt is made to show that it may become a practical question much sooner, if an intelligent community wishes to maximize its creative potential. We estimate, on the (...) basis of a greatly simplified model, the rate of loss of potentially useful information due to the delay in undertaking the colonization of the largest gravitationally bound structures in an accelerating universe. In addition, we argue for a natural cosmological extension of the classical taxonomy of advanced technological communities given by Kardashev. New developments in the fields of anthropic self-selection and physical eschatology give, for the first time, solid foundations to such results. This may open some new (and possibly urgent) issues in the areas of future policy making and transhumanist studies generally. It may also give us a slightly better perspective on the SETI endeavor. (shrink)

ArgumentThis paper is the first part of a two-part examination of computer modeling practice and philosophy. It discusses electrical engineer Jay Forrester's work on Industrial Dynamics, later called System Dynamics. Forrester developed Industrial Dynamics after being recruited to the newly-established School of Industrial Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), which had been seeking a novel pedagogical program for management for five years before Forrester's arrival. We argue that Industrial Dynamics should be regarded in light of this institutional context. (...) Unlike economics, as well as operations research and management science (twin fields which were also gaining traction at that time), Industrial Dynamics was not meant to be applied by mathematicians and technical specialists in consultation with managers, but by managers themselves. This concern shifted the emphasis in modeling from the specialist act of analysis of a crucial problem to the managerial act of choosing which problems were crucial and developing effective policies around them. (shrink)

Predicting our future as individuals is a central to the role of much emerging technology, from hiring algorithms that predict our professional success (or failure) to biomarkers that predict how long (or short) our healthy (or unhealthy) life will be. Yet, much in western culture, from scripture to mythology to philosophy, suggests that knowing one's future may not be in the subject's best interests and might even lead to disaster. If predicting our future as individuals can be harmful as well (...) as beneficial, why are we so willing to engage in so much prediction, from cradle to grave? This book offers a philosophical answer, reflecting on seminal texts in western culture to argue that predicting our future renders much of our existence the automated effect of various causes, which, in turn, helps to alleviate the existential burden of autonomously making sense of our lives in a more competitive, demanding, accelerated society. An exploration of our tendency in a technological era to engineer and so rid ourselves of that which has hitherto been our primary reason for being - making life plans for a successful future, while faced with epistemological and ethical uncertainties - Predicted Humans will appeal to scholars of philosophy and social theory with interests in questions of moral responsibility and meaning in an increasingly technological world. (shrink)

"This book presents the collectives views of the participants at that Symposium and puts forward their practical suggestions, based on personal experience of the problems of developing regions, on how more effective strategies may be achieved” -- Back cover.

The “International Congress for the Philosophy of Science” was held in the week of August 23–28, 1954 at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, Switzerland. The Institute enjoys a very high reputation as one of the foremost schools of its kind in the world. It was at this Institute that Albert Einstein taught at the beginning of his academic career. The Congress was arranged as the Second Congress of the “Union Internationale de Philosophie des Sciences” which has its (...) permanent seat in Paris, France. The first Congress of the U.I.P.S. was held in Paris in 1949. It was then that the “International Forum of Zurich” was asked to organize five years later the Congress of Zurich. (shrink)

The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction was created in 1996 with an “end-to-end” mission to engage in climate research and modeling on a seasonal-to-interannual time scale and to provide the results of this research in a useful way to farmers, fishermen, public health officials, and others capable of making the best of the predicted climate conditions. As a boundary organization, IRI straddles the divides between the production and use of research and between the developed world and the developing world. (...) This article describes the institutional history of IRI, examining how the end-to-end mission evolved over time, how it is becoming institutionalized in IRI as a boundary organization, and the ongoing challenges it presents to managing the boundary between climate variability research and societal applications. (shrink)

The article discusses the highlights of the 9th Polish Congress of Philosophy held in Gliwice-Katowice-Wisła, Poland from September 17–21, 2012. The conference was organized by the Institute of Philosophy of the Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Silesia and the Department of Applied Social Sciences of the Faculty Organisation and Management, Silesian University of Technology in Gliwice. Aleksandra Kuzior of the Silesian University of Technology opened the conference.

The purpose of this brief paper is to show that the primary problem of technology, like all problems related to possibilities and actions, is the conceptualiadequacyof the intentions and values it implies, and not, as many critics have suggested, its social effects. Presupposed for this statement and evaluation is an interpretation of experience called here experiential idealism. On the basis of this position some suggestions are made about the meaning of technology and its correlative possibilities and constraints.

One of the 20th century's most popular non-realistic genre is absurd. The root "absurd," connotes something that does not follow the roots of logic. Existence is fragmented, pointless. There is no truth so the search for truth is abandoned in Absurdist works. Language is reduced to a bantering game where words obfuscate rather elucidate the truth. Action moves outside of the realm of causality to chaos. Absurdists minimalize the sense of place. Characters are forced to move in an incomprehensible, void-like (...) realm. Danish philosopher Sїren Kierkegaard was the first to use the term "absurd" in its modern context. His application of the term related it to, what he considered, the incomprehensibility and unjustifiability of Christianity. Existentialist philosophers such as the Frenchman, Jean-Paul Sartre and the German, Martin Heidegger propagated use of the terms in their work. In the philosophical world of the novel, Albert Camus employed absurdism to portray the difference between man's intent and the resultant chaos he encounters. In modern civilization man is posited as the subject of knowledge in science and technology, animating the utopian projects of industrial civilization, and culminating in great urban conglomerates, as in the sealed universe of commodities which constitutes the omnipresent mall. Technique, defined as the ensemble of means, is the driving force of social development, moreimportant than the ends it is supposed to serve. Unfortunately, technique became an end in itself and the society is organized around it. Of course, we are all aware that we need a certain changes to subdue technique, but I think it is now too late to change the course of technique. However, technique is frequently pictured as the only hope for a better future and the only means of making the world more humane. And that is the sort of statement that French philosopher Jacques Ellul calls the technological bluff. Technology is a discourse on techniques: therefore, the bluff lies not in the failure of techniques as such but in presenting them in a falsely optimistic light. The author formulated in 1954 two laws of technical progress: first, it is irreversible: second, it advances by a geometric progression. Thus, a computer revolution changes nothing in the nature of technical progress, although products are new. This progress is hamperednot by internal mechanisms, but by maladaptation of the social body to it, since society is rooted in the past and constantly refers to it. On the other hand, technique is future oriented and discards as valueless everything that cannot be incorporated into the web of techniques. (shrink)

This paper intends to explore an aspect of Blumenberg’s metaphorology as memory of mankind and the ethical commitment derived from it. It is seen as the culmination of the fight that the human being maintains against the senselessness of reality. It manifests itself and it is perceived by a human being as theimmensurability of world time and life time (i.e. that the human being is born and dies), that impedes the human being from having all of the world i.e. the (...) satisfaction of its infinite desires. In the fight against finity technology and money play a vital role. They have in common the power to enable an expansion of human capacities over the boundaries of factual existence: through technology and money the human being can do more or, do the same in less time. That is: tobring closer life time and world time. But in this process the instrumental character of technology and money causes homogenisation in the societies where they thrive. That’s one of the characteristics of globalization. This homogenisation is to be understood as the forgetting of other essential possibilities of the human creation of meaning. Thus, what technological and monetary processes construct on one side, come to be destroyed on the other side. Blumenberg’s metaphorology is the adequate response: it is understood both as the self-consciousness of the process of reason in its making sense of the universe, and as an “ideal store” of everything the human being has come to make in this process. (shrink)

Current developments in reproductive technology forecast that in the foreseeable future artificially generated gametes might be presented as a possible fertility treatment for infertile couples and for homosexual couples desiring to have children genetically originating from both partners. It is important to evaluate the ethical issues connected to this technology before its emergence. This article first reviews the meaning that gametes (sperm and eggs) might have to those who procreate, as well as their ontology. From this, suggestions are made as (...) to what qualities artificially generated gametes need to be truly called gametes. Finally, different proposed routes for artificial gamete generation are examined on the basis of these qualities, with their prospective problems and advantages highlighted. Autotransplanted gametes (or their progenitors) generated solely from patient-derived tissue are deemed to be the most ethically suitable route for the development of this technology. (shrink)

Examines key narratives animating the techno-progressive rhetoric of the human enhancement movement, arguing that enhancement and transhumanist discourse performs distinctly mythic functions. They cast a vision of a technological future involving enhanced posthumans, immortality, human merger with machines and space colonization.

As the principle of timing or opportunity,kairos serves both as a powerful theme within technological discourse and as an analytical concept that explains some of the suasory force by which such discourse maintains itself and its position in our culture. This essay makes a case for a rhetoric of technology that is distinct from the rhetoric of science and illustrates the value of the classical vocabulary for understanding contemporary rhetoric. This case is made by examining images and models of (...) technological change that underlie and justify the thematizations ofkairos that appear in so much technological discourse and by exploring the phenomenon of “technological forecasting,” in which the characterization and construction of moments in the present are crucial to the projection of the future. One example of forecasting is examined in detail: the Japanese “Fifth Generation” computer project, which illustrates the twin themes of opportunity and threat. (shrink)