The historical origin and the experimental basis of the concept of physical determinism indicate that this basis was removed with the acceptance of the kinetic theory of matter, while its difficulties are increased by the admission that human nature, in its entirety, is a product of natural causation. An indeterministic view of causation has the advantages (a) of unifying the concept of natural law in different spheres of human experience and (b) of a greater generality, which precludes the acceptance of (...) the special case of completely deterministic causation, so long as this is an unproved assumption. It is not inconsistent with the orderliness of the world, or with the fruitful pursuit of natural knowledge. It enriches rather than weakens the concept of of causation. It possesses definite advantages with respect to the one-sidedness of human memory, and to the phenomena of aiming and striving observable in man and other animals. Among biological theories it appears to be most completely in harmony with the theory of natural selection, which in its statistical nature resembles the second law of thermo-dynamics. In an indeterministic world natural causation has a creative element, and science is interested in locating the original causes of effects of special interest, and not merely in pushing a chain of causation backwards ad infinitum. These contrasting tendencies are illustrated by a critique of the mutation theory, and by an attempt more closely to define the sense in which indeterministic causation should be thought of as creative. (shrink)

On the mathematical foundations of theoretical statistics.

The requirement of randomization in experimental design was first stated by R. A. Fisher, statistician and geneticist, in 1925 in his book Statistical Methods for Research Workers. Earlier designs were systematic and involved the judgment of the experimenter; this led to possible bias and inaccurate interpretation of the data. Fisher's dictum was that randomization eliminates bias and permits a valid test of significance. Randomization in experimenting had been used by Charles Sanders Peirce in 1885 but the practice (...) was not continued. Fisher developed his concepts of randomizing as he considered the mathematics of small samples, in discussions with "Student," William Sealy Gosset. Fisher published extensively. His principles of experimental design were spread worldwide by the many "voluntary workers" who came from other institutions to Rothamsted Agricultural Station in England to learn Fisher's methods. (shrink)

Probability and inverse inference; Neyman-Pearson theory; Fisherian significance testing; The fiducial argument: one parameter; The fiducial argument: several parameters; Ian hacking's theory; Henry Kyburg's theory; Relevance and experimental design.

Background: Many people participating in dementia research may lack capacity to give informed consent and the relationship between cognitive function and capacity remains unclear. Recent changes in the law reinforce the need for robust and reproducible methods of assessing capacity when recruiting people for research.Aims: To identify numbers of capacitous participants in a pragmatic randomised trial of dementia treatment; to assess characteristics associated with capacity; to describe a legally acceptable consent process for research.Methods: As part of a pragmatic randomised controlled (...) trial of Ginkgo biloba for mild-moderate dementia, we used a consenting algorithm that met the requirements of existing case law and the exigencies of the new Mental Capacity Act. We decided who had capacity to give informed consent for participation in the trial using this algorithm and sought predictors of capacity.Results: Most participants with mild-moderate dementia in this trial were unable to give informed consent according to the legal criteria. When adjusted for confounding, the Mini Mental State examination did not predict the presence of capacity.Conclusion: Cognitive testing alone is insufficient to assess the presence of capacity. Researchers and clinicians need to be aware of the challenging processes regarding capacity assessment. We outline a procedure which we believe meets the ethical and legal requirements. (shrink)

Error is protean, ubiquitous and crucial in scientific process. In this paper it is argued that understanding scientific process requires what is currently absent: an adaptable, context-sensitive functional role for error in science that naturally harnesses error identification and avoidance to positive, success-driven, science. This paper develops a new account of scientific process of this sort, error and success driving Self-Directed Anticipative Learning (SDAL) cycling, using a recent re-analysis of ape-language research as test example. The example shows the limitations of (...) other accounts of error, in particular Mayo’s (Error and the growth of experimental knowledge, 1996) error-statistical approach, and SDAL cycling shows how they can be fruitfully contextualised. (shrink)

B. R. Frieden uses a single procedure, called extreme physical information, with the aim of deriving 'most known physics, from statistical mechanics and thermodynamics to quantum mechanics, the Einstein field equations and quantum gravity'. His method, which is based on Fisher information, is given a detailed exposition in this book, and we attempt to assess the extent to which he succeeds in his task.

The mathematical and physical aspects of the conformal symmetry of space-time and of physical laws are analyzed. In particular, the group classification of conformally flat space-times, the conformal compactifications of space-time, and the problem of imbedding of the flat space-time in global four-dimensional curved spaces with non-trivial topological and geometrical structure are discussed in detail. The wave equations on the compactified space-times are analyzed also, and the set of their elementary solutions constructed. Finally, the implications of global compactified space-times for (...) cosmology are discussed. It is argued that the recent discovery of periodic structure of matter distribution on large distances strongly suggests that the global cosmological space-time should be close. Next we analyze the inflation scalar field in the inflationary model of universe evolution considered on the spatially compact Robertson-Walker space-time. It is shown that the energy distribution in this model is periodic and the periods and density decrease with increasing distance, in striking agreement with experimental data. Our model of the universe also provides a definite predictions for the energy distribution, polar and azimuthal, considered as a function of angles θ and φ. These predictions should be tested with the new astronomical data. (shrink)

A meta-analysis of 190 cross-cultural emotion studies, published between 1967 and 2000, was performed to examine (1) to what extent reported cross-cultural differences in emotion variables could be regarded as valid (substantive factors) or as method-related (statistical artefacts, cultural bias), and (2) which country characteristics could explain valid cross-cultural differences in emotion. The relative contribution of substantive and method-related factors at sample, study, and country level was investigated and country-level explanations for differences in emotions were tested. Results indicate that (...) a correction for statistical artefacts and method-related factors reduced the observed cross-cultural effect sizes considerably. After controlling for valence (positive vs. negative emotions) and kind of study (self-report vs. recognition studies), the remaining cross-cultural variance was associated with subsistence mode, political system, values, and religiosity. Values explained more variance than did ecological or sociopolitical variables. It was concluded that both method-related factors (13.8% of variance explained) and culture-level factors (27.9% of variance explained) underlie observed cross-cultural differences. (shrink)

To put frameworks of Responsible Innovation and Responsible Research and Innovation (R(R)I) into practice, engagement methods have been developed to study and enhance technoscientific experts’ capacities to reflexively address value considerations in their work. These methods commonly rely on engagement between technoscientific experts and social scholars, which makes them vulnerable to structural barriers to interdisciplinary collaboration. To circumvent these barriers, we adapt Socio-Technical Integration Research (STIR) for broader use within technoscientific communities. We call this adaptation: reflexive practitioner dialogues. While the (...) primary aim of this article is to introduce and explain the methodological adaptation, we also analyze results from a pilot study with participants who are involved in research on contemplative practices such as mindfulness meditation. The analysis is guided by research questions that sought to assess whether and under what conditions the practitioner dialogues support reflexive and practical engagement with value considerations in participants’ work. The results indicate that reflexive practitioner dialogues can stimulate reflexive awareness of value conflicts and help re-direct decision-making responsively. We characterize the conditions facilitating such responsiveness as “value exnovators,” highlighting the oft-unacknowledged interpersonal relational practices that support collaborative engagement with value considerations. We suggest that “exnovation”—exposing the strengths of given practices for their improvement—can support R(R)I practices by directing analytical attention to their micro-level carriers. (shrink)

Consider the task of predicting which soccer team will win the next World Cup. The bookmakers may judge Brazil to be the team most likely to win, but also judge it most likely that a European rather than a Latin American team will win. This is an example of a non-aligned hierarchy structure: the most probable event at the subordinate level (Brazil wins) appears to be inconsistent with the most probable event at the superordinate level (a European team wins). In (...) this paper we exploit such structures to investigate how people make predictions based on uncertain hierarchical knowledge. We distinguish between aligned and non-aligned environments, and conjecture that people assume alignment. Participants were exposed to a non-aligned training set in which the most probable superordinate category predicted one outcome, whereas the most probable subordinate category predicted a different outcome. In the test phase participants allowed their initial probability judgments about category membership to shift their final ratings of the probability of the outcome, even though all judgments were made on the basis of the same statistical data. In effect people were primed to focus on the most likely path in an inference tree, and neglect alternative paths. These results highlight the importance of the level at which statistical data are represented, and suggest that when faced with hierarchical inference problems people adopt a simplifying heuristic that assumes alignment. (shrink)

Interventions to decrease acquisition and transmission of sexually transmitted diseases among African American women using text messages versus small-group delivery modalities pose distinct research risks and benefits. Determining the relative risk–benefit ratio of studies using these different modalities has relied on the expertise of investigators and their institutional review boards. In this study, African American women participated in focus groups and surveys to elicit and compare risks and benefits inherent in these two intervention delivery modalities, focusing on issues such as (...) convenience, privacy, and stigma of participation. Some risk/benefit variables were implicated in willingness to participate the two intervention modalities. (shrink)

In a recent note Roger Carlson presented a rather negative appraisal of my treatment of the logic of Fisherian significance testing in [10]. The main issue between us involves Carlson's thesis that, within the limits set by Fisher, standard significance tests are valuable tools of data analysis as they stand, i.e., without modification of the structure of the reasoning they employ. Call this the adequacy thesis. In my paper I argued that the pattern of reasoning employed by tests of (...) significance needs to be justified in spite of its unquestioned acceptance by most researchers, The best justification offered to date—by R. A. Fisher—is seriously defective. Therefore the adequacy thesis is not justified. I proposed some alterations of the pattern of reasoning employed by tests of significance and argued that they guarantee that tests are adequate epistemological tools. (shrink)

This article investigates the potential of fMRI to test assumptions about different components in models of complex cognitive tasks. If the components of a model can be associated with specific brain regions, one can make predictions for the temporal course of the BOLD response in these regions. An event‐locked procedure is described for dealing with temporal variability and bringing model runs and individual data trials into alignment. Statistical methods for testing the model are described that deal with the scan‐to‐scan (...) correlations in the errors of measurement of the BOLD signal. This approach is illustrated using a “sacrificial” ACT‐R model that involves mapping 6 modules onto 6 brain regions in an experiment from Ravizza, Anderson, and Carter (in press) concerned with equation solving. The model's visual encoding predicted the BOLD response in the fusiform gyrus, its controlled retrieval predicted the BOLD response in the lateral inferior prefrontal cortex, and its subgoal setting predicted the BOLD response in the anterior cingulate cortex. On the other hand, its motor programming failed to predict anticipatory activation in the motor cortex, its representational changes failed to predicted the pattern of activity in the posterior parietal cortex, and its procedural component failed to predict an initial spike in caudate. The results illustrate the power of such data to direct the development of a theory of complex problem solving, both at the level of a specific task model as well as at the level of the cognitive architecture. (shrink)

Amit Sharma, Rajesh Ramanathan, Marc Posner, Robert A Fisher Hume-Lee Transplant Center, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA: Pediatric kidney transplantation is the preferred treatment for children with end-stage renal disease. The most common indications for transplantation in children are renal developmental anomalies, obstructive uropathy, and focal segmental glomerulosclerosis. Living donor kidney transplants are often performed pre-emptively and offer excellent graft function. Policy changes in deceased-donor kidney allocation have increased the proportion of such transplants in pediatric recipients. Adequate pretransplant (...) workup along with evaluation of urologic abnormalities is imperative in achieving good outcomes. Overall, patient and graft outcomes after kidney transplantation have improved, with five-year deceased donor and living donor graft survivals of 78.8% and 84.3%, respectively. Improvements in induction and maintenance immunosuppression have contributed to the gradual improvement in outcomes. Unique challenges in pediatric recipients include increased graft thrombosis, adverse growth, and abnormal development relating to immunosuppression, increased rejection due to nonadherence, increased susceptibility to opportunistic infections, and post-transplant malignancy. This review focuses on the current practices and outcomes in pediatric kidney transplantation in North America. We discuss the indications for transplantation, the evaluation process, some key surgical and immunologic considerations, and the common risk factors for graft dysfunction. Keywords: pediatric kidney transplantation, end-stage renal disease, dialysis, organ donors, immunosuppression. (shrink)