Results for 'St. Petersburg Game'

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  1. Capitalization in the St. Petersburg game: Why statistical distributions matter.Mariam Thalos & Oliver Richardson - 2014 - Politics, Philosophy and Economics 13 (3):292-313.
    In spite of its infinite expectation value, the St. Petersburg game is not only a gamble without supply in the real world, but also one without demand at apparently very reasonable asking prices. We offer a rationalizing explanation of why the St. Petersburg bargain is unattractive on both sides (to both house and player) in the mid-range of prices (finite but upwards of about $4). Our analysis – featuring (1) the already-established fact that the average of finite (...)
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  2. Repeated st petersburg two-envelope trials and expected value.Jeremy Gwiazda - 2012 - The Reasoner 6 (3).
    It is commonly believed that when a finite value is received in a game that has an infinite expected value, it is in one’s interest to redo the game. We have argued against this belief, at least in the repeated St Petersburg two-envelope case. We also show a case where repeatedly opting for a higher expected value leads to a worse outcome.
     
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  3.  14
    Entrance Fees and a Bayesian Approach to the St. Petersburg Paradox.Diego Marcondes, Cláudia Peixoto, Kdson Souza & Sergio Wechsler - 2017 - Philosophies 2 (2):11.
    In An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, W. Feller established a way of ending the St. Petersburg paradox by the introduction of an entrance fee, and provided it for the case in which the game is played with a fair coin. A natural generalization of his method is to establish the entrance fee for the case in which the probability of heads is θ. The deduction of those fees is the main result of Section 2. We (...)
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  4. Evaluating the pasadena, altadena, and st petersburg gambles.Terrence L. Fine - 2008 - Mind 117 (467):613-632.
    By recourse to the fundamentals of preference orderings and their numerical representations through linear utility, we address certain questions raised in Nover and Hájek 2004, Hájek and Nover 2006, and Colyvan 2006. In brief, the Pasadena and Altadena games are well-defined and can be assigned any finite utility values while remaining consistent with preferences between those games having well-defined finite expected value. This is also true for the St Petersburg game. Furthermore, the dominance claimed for the Altadena (...) over the Pasadena game, and that would have been claimed for the St Petersburg game over the Altadena, can be contradicted without fear of inconsistency with the axioms of utility theory. However, insistence upon dominance can be made to yield a contradiction of the Archimedean axiom of utility theory. CiteULike Connotea Del.icio.us What's this? (shrink)
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  5. Relative Expectation Theory.Mark Colyvan - 2008 - Journal of Philosophy 105 (1):37-44.
    Games such as the St. Petersburg game present serious problems for decision theory.1 The St. Petersburg game invokes an unbounded utility function to produce an infinite expectation for playing the game. The problem is usually presented as a clash between decision theory and intuition: most people are not prepared to pay a large finite sum to buy into this game, yet this is precisely what decision theory suggests we ought to do. But there is (...)
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  6. Vexing expectations.Harris Nover & Alan Hájek - 2004 - Mind 113 (450):237-249.
    We introduce a St. Petersburg-like game, which we call the ‘Pasadena game’, in which we toss a coin until it lands heads for the first time. Your pay-offs grow without bound, and alternate in sign (rewards alternate with penalties). The expectation of the game is a conditionally convergent series. As such, its terms can be rearranged to yield any sum whatsoever, including positive infinity and negative infinity. Thus, we can apparently make the game seem as (...)
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  7. How to Avoid Maximizing Expected Utility.Bradley Monton - 2019 - Philosophers' Imprint 19.
    The lesson to be learned from the paradoxical St. Petersburg game and Pascal’s Mugging is that there are situations where expected utility maximizers will needlessly end up poor and on death’s door, and hence we should not be expected utility maximizers. Instead, when it comes to decision-making, for possibilities that have very small probabilities of occurring, we should discount those probabilities down to zero, regardless of the utilities associated with those possibilities.
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  8. How to Avoid Maximizing Expected Utility.Bradley Monton - 2019 - Philosopher’s Imprint 19 (18):1–25.
    The lesson to be learned from the paradoxical St. Petersburg game and Pascal’s Mugging is that there are situations where expected utility maximizers will needlessly end up (with high probability) poor and on death’s door, and hence we should not be expected utility maximizers. Instead, when it comes to decision-making, for possibilities that have very small probabilities of occurring, we should discount those probabilities down to zero, regardless of the utilities associated with those possibilities.
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  9. Perplexing expectations.Alan Hájek & Harris Nover - 2006 - Mind 115 (459):703 - 720.
    This paper revisits the Pasadena game (Nover and Háyek 2004), a St Petersburg-like game whose expectation is undefined. We discuss serveral respects in which the Pasadena game is even more troublesome for decision theory than the St Petersburg game. Colyvan (2006) argues that the decision problem of whether or not to play the Pasadena game is ‘ill-posed’. He goes on to advocate a ‘pluralism’ regarding decision rules, which embraces dominance reasoning as well as (...)
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  10. Complex Expectations.Alan Hájek & Harris Nover - 2008 - Mind 117 (467):643 - 664.
    In our 2004, we introduced two games in the spirit of the St Petersburg game, the Pasadena and Altadena games. As these latter games lack an expectation, we argued that they pose a paradox for decision theory. Terrence Fine has shown that any finite valuations for the Pasadena, Altadena, and St Petersburg games are consistent with the standard decision-theoretic axioms. In particular, one can value the Pasadena game above the other two, a result that conflicts with (...)
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  11. Putting expectations in order.Alan Baker - 2007 - Philosophy of Science 74 (5):692-700.
    In their paper, “Vexing Expectations,” Nover and Hájek (2004) present an allegedly paradoxical betting scenario which they call the Pasadena Game (PG). They argue that the silence of standard decision theory concerning the value of playing PG poses a serious problem. This paper provides a threefold response. First, I argue that the real problem is not that decision theory is “silent” concerning PG, but that it delivers multiple conflicting verdicts. Second, I offer a diagnosis of the problem based on (...)
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  12. Difference Minimizing Theory.Christopher J. G. Meacham - 2019 - Ergo: An Open Access Journal of Philosophy 6.
    Standard decision theory has trouble handling cases involving acts without finite expected values. This paper has two aims. First, building on earlier work by Colyvan (2008), Easwaran (2014), and Lauwers and Vallentyne (2016), it develops a proposal for dealing with such cases, Difference Minimizing Theory. Difference Minimizing Theory provides satisfactory verdicts in a broader range of cases than its predecessors. And it vindicates two highly plausible principles of standard decision theory, Stochastic Equivalence and Stochastic Dominance. The second aim is to (...)
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  13.  95
    The St. Petersburg gamble and risk.Paul Weirich - 1984 - Theory and Decision 17 (2):193-202.
    One resolution of the St. Petersburg paradox recognizes that a gamble carries a risk sensitive to the gamble's stakes. If aversion to risk increases sufficiently fast as stakes go up, the St. Petersburg gamble has a finite utility.
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  14.  85
    How to co-exist with nonexistent expectations.Randall G. McCutcheon - 2021 - Synthese 198 (3):2783-2799.
    Dozens of articles have addressed the challenge that gambles having undefined expectation pose for decision theory. This paper makes two contributions. The first is incremental: we evolve Colyvan's ``Relative Expected Utility Theory'' into a more viable ``conservative extension of expected utility theory" by formulating and defending emendations to a version of this theory proposed by Colyvan and H\'ajek. The second is comparatively more surprising. We show that, so long as one assigns positive probability to the theory that there is a (...)
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  15. A St Petersburg Paradox for risky welfare aggregation.Zachary Goodsell - 2021 - Analysis 81 (3):420-426.
    The principle of Anteriority says that prospects that are identical from the perspective of every possible person’s welfare are equally good overall. The principle enjoys prima facie plausibility, and has been employed for various theoretical purposes. Here it is shown using an analogue of the St Petersburg Paradox that Anteriority is inconsistent with central principles of axiology.
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  16. Unexpected Expectations.Alan Hájek - 2014 - Mind 123 (490):533-567.
    A decade ago, Harris Nover and I introduced the Pasadena game, which we argued gives rise to a new paradox in decision theory even more troubling than the St Petersburg paradox. Gwiazda's and Smith's articles in this volume both offer revisionist solutions. I critically engage with both articles. They invite reflections on a number of deep issues in the foundations of decision theory, which I hope to bring out. These issues include: some ways in which orthodox decision theory (...)
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  17. Exceeding Expectations: Stochastic Dominance as a General Decision Theory.Christian Tarsney - manuscript
    The principle that rational agents should maximize expected utility or choiceworthiness is intuitively plausible in many ordinary cases of decision-making under uncertainty. But it is less plausible in cases of extreme, low-probability risk (like Pascal's Mugging), and intolerably paradoxical in cases like the St. Petersburg and Pasadena games. In this paper I show that, under certain conditions, stochastic dominance reasoning can capture most of the plausible implications of expectational reasoning while avoiding most of its pitfalls. Specifically, given sufficient background (...)
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  18.  7
    St Petersburg Dialogues: Or Conversations on the Temporal Government of Providence.Richard A. Lebrun (ed.) - 2020 - McGill-Queen's University Press.
    Written and set on the banks of the Neva, St Petersburg Dialogues is a startlingly relevant analysis of the human prospect in the twenty-first century. As the literary critic George Steiner has remarked, "the age of the Gulag and of Auschwitz, of famine and ubiquitous torture... nuclear threat, the ecological laying waste of our planet, the leap of endemic, possibly pandemic, illness out of the very matrix of libertarian progress" is exactly what Joseph de Maistre foretold. In the Dialogues (...)
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  19. In Memory of Richard Jeffrey: Some Reminiscences and Some Reflections on The Logic of Decision.Alan Hájek - 2006 - Philosophy of Science 73 (5):947-958.
    This paper is partly a tribute to Richard Jeffrey, partly a reflection on some of his writings, The Logic of Decision in particular. I begin with a brief biography and some fond reminiscences of Dick. I turn to some of the key tenets of his version of Bayesianism. All of these tenets are deployed in my discussion of his response to the St. Petersburg paradox, a notorious problem for decision theory that involves a game of infinite expectation. Prompted (...)
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  20.  11
    St Petersburg Dialogues: Or Conversations on the Temporal Government of Providence.Joseph de Maistre - 1993 - Mcgill-Queen's University Press.
    Written and set on the banks of the Neva, St Petersburg Dialogues is a startlingly relevant analysis of the human prospect at the end of the twentieth century. As the literary critic George Steiner has remarked, "the age of the Gulag and of Auschwitz, of famine and ubiquitous torture,... nuclear threat, the ecological laying waste of our planet, the leap of endemic, possibly pandemic, illness out of the very matrix of libertarian progress" is exactly what Maistre foretold. In the (...)
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  21. The St. Petersburg two-envelope paradox.David J. Chalmers - 2002 - Analysis 62 (2):155–157.
    I reason: (1) For any x, if I knew that A contained x, then the odds are even that B contains either 2x or x/2, so the expected amount in B would be 5x/4. So (2) for all x, if I knew that A contained x, I would have an expected gain in switching to B. So (3) I should switch to B. But this seems clearly wrong, as my information about A and B is symmetrical.
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  22.  10
    Playing the Dummy: Maugham, Smartphones, and the End of Elegance.Eric Bronson - 2023 - Philosophy and Literature 47 (2):477-492.
    In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content:Playing the Dummy:Maugham, Smartphones, and the End of EleganceEric BronsonIOn the Russian Trans-Siberian train from Vladivostok to Petrograd (now St. Petersburg), an American businessman won't stop talking for the entire ten-day journey. In his story, "A Chance Acquaintance," W. Somerset Maugham describes this 1917 meeting between Ashenden, a British character loosely based on himself, and the chatty American, named Harrington. The two passengers are blissfully unmoved by the (...)
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  23.  49
    The St. Petersburg two-envelope paradox.D. J. Chalmers - 2002 - Analysis 62 (2):155-157.
  24. St. Petersburg covers, the agony argument, and Notes from Underground.Terence Rajivan Edward - manuscript
    Why does Derek Parfit, a philosopher very much associated with the University of Oxford, use pictures of St. Petersburg on the covers of volumes of On What Matters? Perhaps it is because he regards his agony argument as like something from Russian literature. But I can envisage a response to the argument from such literature.
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  25. Solving the St. Petersburg Paradox in cumulative prospect theory: the right amount of probability weighting.Marie Pfiffelmann - 2011 - Theory and Decision 71 (3):325-341.
    Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) does not explain the St. Petersburg Paradox. We show that the solutions related to probability weighting proposed to solve this paradox, (Blavatskyy, Management Science 51:677–678, 2005; Rieger and Wang, Economic Theory 28:665–679, 2006) have to cope with limitations. In that framework, CPT fails to accommodate both gambling and insurance behavior. We suggest replacing the weighting functions generally proposed in the literature by another specification which respects the following properties: (1) to solve the paradox, the slope (...)
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  26. St Petersburg: Three Centuries of Murderous Desire.Jonathan Miles - 2017
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  27. The st. petersburg paradox and Pascal's Wager.Jeff Jordan - 1994 - Philosophia 23 (1-4):207-222.
  28.  9
    Features of the St. Petersburg image in watercolor painting.Yueyue Xie - 2022 - Philosophy and Culture (Russian Journal) 8:77-87.
    The image of St. Petersburg is an integral part of Russian art, in particular, in watercolor painting. This article is devoted to the analysis of the work of Russian watercolor artists, identifying the specifics and characteristic features of the image of the city on the Neva in their work. The object of the study is watercolors by Russian artists, the subject is expressive means, techniques and methods through which the image of St. Petersburg is embodied. On the example (...)
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  29.  8
    From St. Petersburg to Dorpat and Back: On Academic Migration and Communication between Universities in the First Half of the 19th Century.Ksenia Kazakova & Tatyana Zhukovskaya - 2018 - Acta Baltica Historiae Et Philosophiae Scientiarum 6 (2):161-170.
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  30.  5
    First St. Petersburg Conference on Days of Logic and Computability.Yuri Matiyasevich - 2001 - Annals of Pure and Applied Logic 113 (1):3.
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  31. On the normative dimension of the St. Petersburg paradox.David Teira - 2006 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 37 (2):210-223.
    In this paper I offer an account of the normative dimension implicit in D. Bernoulli’s expected utility functions by means of an analysis of the juridical metaphors upon which the concept of mathematical expectation was moulded. Following a suggestion by the late E. Coumet, I show how this concept incorporated a certain standard of justice which was put in question by the St. Petersburg paradox. I contend that Bernoulli would have solved it by introducing an alternative normative criterion rather (...)
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  32.  6
    Philosophy in the Early St. Petersburg Theology Academy: toward the roots of classical Russian idealism.Thomas Nemeth - 2021 - Studies in East European Thought 73 (4):495-515.
    The St. Petersburg Theological Academy was the first of the four academies in the early years of the nineteenth century to undergo a remodeling along the lines of a new charter for the empire’s church-affiliated educational institutions. Instruction in philosophy was mandated, but the academy faced staffing issues at the outset. Courses were taught following Wolffian guidebooks that many found to be antiquated, raising pedagogical dilemmas for the teachers. Nevertheless, a divorce between faith and reason was proscribed, and adherence (...)
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  33. Know Your Way Out of St. Petersburg: An Exploration of "Knowledge-First" Decision Theory.Frank Hong - forthcoming - Erkenntnis:1-20.
    This paper explores the consequences of applying two natural ideas from epistemology to decision theory: (1) that knowledge should guide our actions, and (2) that we know a lot of non-trivial things. In particular, we explore the consequences of these ideas as they are applied to standard decision theoretic puzzles such as the St. Petersburg Paradox. In doing so, we develop a “knowledge-first” decision theory and we will see how it can help us avoid fanaticism with regard to the (...)
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  34.  34
    The European University at St. Petersburg: a case study in sociology of post-Soviet knowledge.Oleg Zhuravlev, Daneil Kondov & Natalia Savel’eva - 2009 - Studies in East European Thought 61 (4):291-308.
    The article presents results of an ongoing study of centers of intellectual innovations in post-Soviet Russia. Using the European University at St. Petersburg as the main object of their analysis, the authors demonstrate how new models of academic careers, which became available in the 1980s and 1990s, were eventually institutionalized as new models of knowledge production and educational practices. Supported by American foundations, this private university had to invent a new institutional structure and to position itself within the field (...)
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  35.  25
    The St. Petersburg Puzzle.Samuel Gorovitz - 1979 - In Maurice Allais & Ole Hagen (eds.), Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox. D. Reidel. pp. 259--270.
  36.  9
    Jarosław Iwaszkiewicz’s St. Petersburg Text.Victor Alexandrovich Khoryev - 2011 - Dialogue and Universalism 21 (3):55-64.
    Khoryev regards Petersburg, a collection of essays by Jarosław Iwaszkiewicz, published in 1976, as a windup of the writer’s complex ties with Russian culture and literature, which he was widely known to have loved and known in depth. It is a book where, through the legendary city on the river Neva, Iwaszkiewicz takes a look at a number of essential issues of Russian history and its ties with the history of Poland and the Polish people. Iwaszkiewicz avoids unequivocal judgments, (...)
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  37.  10
    Jarosław Iwaszkiewicz’s St. Petersburg Text.Victor Alexandrovich Khoryev - 2011 - Dialogue and Universalism 21 (3):55-64.
    Khoryev regards Petersburg, a collection of essays by Jarosław Iwaszkiewicz, published in 1976, as a windup of the writer’s complex ties with Russian culture and literature, which he was widely known to have loved and known in depth. It is a book where, through the legendary city on the river Neva, Iwaszkiewicz takes a look at a number of essential issues of Russian history and its ties with the history of Poland and the Polish people. Iwaszkiewicz avoids unequivocal judgments, (...)
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  38.  11
    From the St. Petersburg paradox to the dismal theorem.Susumu Cato - 2020 - Environment and Development Economics 25 (5):423–432.
    This paper aims to consider the meaning of the dismal theorem, as presented by Martin Weitzman [(2009) On modeling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change. Review of Economics and Statistics 91, 1–19]. The theorem states that a standard cost–benefit analysis breaks down if there is a possibility of catastrophes occurring. This result has a significant influence on debates regarding the economics of climate change. In this study, we present an intuitive similarity between the dismal theorem and the St. (...)
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  39.  9
    Principles of the St. Petersburg Phonological School in Speech Corpora Design.Pavel Skrelin, Tatiana Kachkovskaia, Daniil Kocharov, Vera Evdokimova & Uliana Kochetkova - 2023 - Bakhtiniana 18 (2):205-226.
    RESUMO O artigo discute os princípios fundamentais de elaboração do projeto e anotação de corpora de fala no âmbito da Escola Fonológica de São Petersburgo e fornece os exemplos de utilização de dados de vários corpora na pesquisa em fonética. Um dos princípios fundamentais é analisar as amostras em todos os níveis: desde o segmento até a entoação, incluindo as disfluências da fala. Durante a anotação fonética, sugerimos ouvir cada som isoladamente e confiar nos dados do espectrograma. Na anotação silábica, (...)
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  40.  9
    Ur III-Texte der St. Petersburger Ermitage.Steven J. Garfinkle & Natalia Koslova - 2002 - Journal of the American Oriental Society 122 (4):875.
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  41.  13
    A Resource‐Rational, Process‐Level Account of the St. Petersburg Paradox.Ardavan S. Nobandegani & Thomas R. Shultz - 2020 - Topics in Cognitive Science 12 (1):417-432.
    How much would you pay to play a lottery with an “infinite expected payoff?” In the case of the century old, St. Petersburg Paradox, the answer is that the vast majority of people would only pay a small amount. The authors seek to understand this paradox by providing an explanation consistent with a broad, process‐level model of human decision‐making under risk.
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  42.  8
    St. Petersburg Bessarion of fin de siècle. (Review on A.A. Giovanardi “Pensare il confine. Vladimiro Zabughin tra Oriente e Occidente”. Roma: Edizioni di storia e letteratura, 2021. 274 p.). [REVIEW]О.И Кусенко - 2023 - History of Philosophy 28 (1):140-145.
    The art historian Alessandro Giovanardi has recently published a monograph on one of the important representatives of the Russian religious-philosophical renaissance of the beginning of 20th century – Vladimir Nikolayevich Zabugin. This volume, written in Italian, aims to provide a comprehensive overview of Zabugin's intellectual biography, philosophical and aesthetic ideas and opens up a completely unknown corpus of the author’s works as well as the history of the reception of his heritage. The monograph underlines the contribution of Vladimir Zabugin in (...)
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  43.  9
    St. Petersburg Dialogues. [REVIEW]Mark Wegierski - 1995 - Review of Metaphysics 48 (3):665-666.
    This is the first complete translation of this work of Maistre's into the English language. It also includes Maistre's shorter piece, "Elucidation on Sacrifices," which has traditionally been appended to these philosophical dialogues. Maistre himself had divided his writing into eleven numbered dialogues, each of which formally represents an evening of conversation, as well as a "Sketch of a Final Dialogue," in which the participants say their farewells. The debating figures are called "the Count", "the Senator", and "the Chevalier." There (...)
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  44.  76
    Limiting the Killing in War: Military Necessity and the St. Petersburg Assumption.Janina Dill & Henry Shue - 2012 - Ethics and International Affairs 26 (3):311-333.
    This article suggests that the best available normative framework for guiding conduct in war rests on categories that do not echo the terms of an individual rights-based morality, but acknowledge the impossibility of rendering warfare fully morally justified. Avoiding the undue moralization of conduct in war is an imperative for a normative framework that strives to actually give behavioral guidance to combatants, most of whom will inevitably be ignorant of the moral status of the individuals they encounter on the battlefield (...)
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  45. Development of St. Petersburg-Contemporary projects in the deeply historic Russian city.Valery Nefedov - 2008 - Topos 64:56.
     
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  46.  87
    Time, bounded utility, and the St. Petersburg paradox.Tyler Cowen & Jack High - 1988 - Theory and Decision 25 (3):219-223.
  47.  23
    St. Petersburg Dialogues. [REVIEW]Mark Wegierski - 1995 - Review of Metaphysics 48 (3):665-666.
  48.  2
    Trends in the development of institutions and forms of artistic communication in modern St. Petersburg.Liang Pan - forthcoming - Philosophy and Culture (Russian Journal).
    The subject of the study is the works of contemporary St. Petersburg artists of different generations and creative trends, as well as the forms and features of their communication with each other and with the general as well as professional public. The trends of artistic communication in the city are determined by the activities of such institutions as art and non-art museums, art galleries and exhibition centers, which are a classic form of presentation of contemporary art; alternative venues such (...)
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  49.  7
    With Gurdjieff in St. Petersburg and Paris.Anna Butkovsky-Hewitt - 1978 - London: Routledge and Kegan Paul. Edited by Mary Cosh & Alicia Street.
  50.  34
    Die Zeitschrift ,,Evrejskaja Starina". Wissenschaftlicher Kommunikationsort und Sprachrohr der Jüdischen Historisch-Ethnographischen Gesellschaft in St. Petersburg.Kerstin Armborst - 2006 - Zeitschrift für Religions- Und Geistesgeschichte 58 (1):29-48.
    With the foundation of the journal,,Evrejskaja Starina" in 1909, the Jewish Historical-Ethnographic Society of St. Petersburg wanted to create a forum for the study of the history of Jews in Russia and Poland. This article investigates whether the journal was able to live up to its goal, and to which extent,,Evrejskaja Starina" served as a basis for the further development of a Russian-Jewish historiography.
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