For the safe and economical construction of embankment dams, the mechanical behaviour of the rockfill materials used in the dam’s shell must be analyzed. The characterization of rockfill materials with specified shear strength is difficult and expensive due to the presence of particles greater than 500 mm in diameter. This work investigates the feasibility of using an extreme gradient boosting computing paradigm to estimate the shear strength of rockfill materials. To train and validate the proposed XGBoost model, a (...) total of 165 databases obtained from the literature are chosen. The XGBoost model was compared against support vector machine, adaptive boosting, random forest, and K-nearest neighbor models described in the literature. XGBoost beats SVM, RF, AdaBoost, and KNN models in terms of performance evaluation metrics such as coefficient of determination, Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient, and error in the root mean square ratio to the standard deviation of the measured data. The results demonstrated that the XGBoost model has the highest prediction performance with, followed by the SVM model with, RF, the AdaBoost model with and the KNN model with. A sensitivity analysis has been conducted to ascertain the impact of each investigated input parameter. This study demonstrates that the established XGBoost model for estimating the shear strength of rockfill materials is reliable. (shrink)

The application of recycled aggregate as a sustainable material in construction projects is considered a promising approach to decrease the carbon footprint of concrete structures. Prediction of compressive strength of environmentally friendly concrete containing recycled aggregate is important for understanding sustainable structures’ concrete behaviour. In this research, the capability of the deep learning neural network approach is examined on the simulation of CS of EF concrete. The developed approach is compared to the well-known artificial intelligence approaches named multivariate adaptive regression (...) spline, extreme learning machines, and random forests. The dataset was divided into three scenarios 70%-30%, 80%-20%, and 90%-10% for training/testing to explore the impact of data division percentage on the capacity of the developed AI model. Extreme gradient boosting was integrated with the developed AI models to select the influencing variables on the CS prediction. Several statistical measures and graphical methods were generated to evaluate the efficiency of the presented models. In this regard, the results confirmed that the DLNN model attained the highest value of prediction performance with minimal root mean squared error. The study revealed that the highest prediction performance could be attained by increasing the number of variables in the prediction problem and using 90%-10% data division. The results demonstrated the robustness of the DLNN model over the other AI models in handling the complex behaviour of concrete. Due to the high accuracy of the DLNN model, the developed method can be used as a practical approach for future use of CS prediction of EF concrete. (shrink)

The food security of more than half of the world’s population depends on rice production which is one of the key objectives of precision agriculture. The traditional rice almanac used astronomical and climate factors to estimate yield response. However, this research integrated meteorological, agro-chemical, and soil physiographic factors for yield response prediction. Besides, the impact of those factors on the production of three major rice ecotypes has also been studied in this research. Moreover, this study found a different set of (...) those factors with respect to the yield response of different rice ecotypes. Machine learning algorithms named Extreme Gradient Boosting and Support Vector Regression have been used for predicting the yield response. The SVR shows better results than XGBoost for predicting the yield of the Aus rice ecotype, whereas XGBoost performs better for forecasting the yield of the Aman and Boro rice ecotypes. The result shows that the root mean squared error of three different ecotypes are in between 9.38% and 24.37% and that of R-squared values are between 89.74% and 99.13% on two different machine learning algorithms. Moreover, the explainability of the models is also shown in this study with the help of the explainable artificial intelligence model called Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations. (shrink)

Accurate short-term traffic flow modeling is an essential prerequisite to analyze and control traffic flow. Canonical data-driven methods are a large account of parameters that may be underfitted with limited training samples, yet they cannot adaptively boost their understanding of the spatiotemporal dependencies of the traffic flow. The noisy and unstable traffic flow data also prevent the models from effectively learning the underlying patterns for forecasting future traffic flow. To address these issues, we propose an easy-to-implement yet effective boosting (...) model based on extreme gradient boosting and enhance it by wavelet denoising for short-term traffic flow forecasting. The discrete wavelet denoising is employed to preprocess the noisy traffic flow data. Then, the denoised training datasets are reconstructed to train the extreme gradient boosting model. These two components are integrated seamlessly in a unified framework, and the whole framework can retain the features in the data as much as possible. Our model can precisely capture the hidden spatial dependency in the data. Extensive experiments are conducted on four benchmark datasets compared with frequently used models. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can precisely capture the hidden spatial dependency of the traffic flow data and achieve superior performance. (shrink)

The fields of machine learning (ML) and cognitive science have developed complementary approaches to computationally modeling human behavior. ML's primary concern is maximizing prediction accuracy; cognitive science's primary concern is explaining the underlying mechanisms. Cross-talk between these disciplines is limited, likely because the tasks and goals usually differ. The domain of e-learning and knowledge acquisition constitutes a fruitful intersection for the two fields’ methodologies to be integrated because accurately tracking learning and forgetting over time and predicting future performance based on (...) learning histories are central to developing effective, personalized learning tools. Here, we show how a state-of-the-art ML model can be enhanced by incorporating insights from a cognitive model of human memory. This was done by exploiting the predictive performance equation's (PPE) narrow but highly specialized domain knowledge with regard to the temporal dynamics of learning and forgetting. Specifically, the PPE was used to engineer timing-related input features for a gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDT) model. The resulting PPE-enhanced GBDT outperformed the default GBDT, especially under conditions in which limited data were available for training. Results suggest that integrating cognitive and ML models could be particularly productive if the available data are too high-dimensional to be explained by a cognitive model but not sufficiently large to effectively train a modern ML algorithm. Here, the cognitive model's insights pertaining to only one aspect of the data were enough to jump-start the ML model's ability to make predictions—a finding that holds promise for future explorations. (shrink)

The fields of machine learning (ML) and cognitive science have developed complementary approaches to computationally modeling human behavior. ML's primary concern is maximizing prediction accuracy; cognitive science's primary concern is explaining the underlying mechanisms. Cross-talk between these disciplines is limited, likely because the tasks and goals usually differ. The domain of e-learning and knowledge acquisition constitutes a fruitful intersection for the two fields’ methodologies to be integrated because accurately tracking learning and forgetting over time and predicting future performance based on (...) learning histories are central to developing effective, personalized learning tools. Here, we show how a state-of-the-art ML model can be enhanced by incorporating insights from a cognitive model of human memory. This was done by exploiting the predictive performance equation's (PPE) narrow but highly specialized domain knowledge with regard to the temporal dynamics of learning and forgetting. Specifically, the PPE was used to engineer timing-related input features for a gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDT) model. The resulting PPE-enhanced GBDT outperformed the default GBDT, especially under conditions in which limited data were available for training. Results suggest that integrating cognitive and ML models could be particularly productive if the available data are too high-dimensional to be explained by a cognitive model but not sufficiently large to effectively train a modern ML algorithm. Here, the cognitive model's insights pertaining to only one aspect of the data were enough to jump-start the ML model's ability to make predictions—a finding that holds promise for future explorations. (shrink)

Machine stability and energy efficiency have become major issues in the manufacturing industry, primarily during the COVID-19 pandemic where fluctuations in supply and demand were common. As a result, Predictive Maintenance (PdM) has become more desirable, since predicting failures ahead of time allows to avoid downtime and improves stability and energy efficiency in machines. One type of machine failure stands out due to its impact, machine overstrain, which can occur when machines are used beyond their tolerable limit. From the current (...) literature, there are little to no relevant works that focus on machine overstrain failure detection or prediction. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to implement and compare four Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for PdM applied to machine overstrain failures: Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Gradient Boosting, Random Forest and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Moreover, it proposes a training methodology for imbalanced data and the automatic optimization of hyperparameters, which aims to improve performance in the ML models. To evaluate the performance of the ML models, a synthetic dataset that simulates industrial machine data is used. The obtained results show the robustness of the proposed methodology, with the ANN and SVM models achieving a perfect recall score, with 98.95% and 98.85% in accuracy, respectively. (shrink)

This paper aims to introduce a robust framework for forecasting demand, including data preprocessing, data transformation and standardization, feature selection, cross-validation, and regression ensemble framework. Bagging ), boosting and extreme gradient boosting regression ), and stacking are employed as ensemble models. Different machine learning approaches, including support vector regression, extreme learning machine, and multilayer perceptron neural network, are adopted as reference models. In order to maximize the determination coefficient value and reduce the root mean square error, hyperparameters (...) are set using the grid search method. Using a steel industry dataset, all tests are carried out under identical experimental conditions. In this context, STACK1 and STACK2 models provided better performance than other models. The highest accuracies of R2 of 0.97 and 0.97 are obtained using STACK1 and STACK2, respectively. Moreover, the rank according to performances is STACK1, STACK2, XGBR, GBR, RFR, MLP, ELM, and SVR. As it improves the performance of models and reduces the risk of decision-making, the ensemble method can be used to forecast the demand in a steel industry one month ahead. (shrink)

In recent years, with the continuous improvement of urban public transportation capacity, citizens’ travel has become more and more convenient, but there are still some potential problems, such as morning and evening peak congestion, imbalance between the supply and demand of vehicles and passenger flow, emergencies, and social local passenger flow surged due to special circumstances such as activities and inclement weather. If you want to properly guide the local passenger flow and make a reasonable deployment of operating buses, it (...) is necessary to grasp the changing law of public transportation short-term passenger flow. This paper builds a short-term passenger flow prediction model for urban public transportation based on the idea of integrated learning. The goal is to use the integrated model to accurately predict the short-term passenger flow of urban public transportation, using Multivariable Linear Regression, K-Nearest Neighbor, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, and Gated Recurrent Unit as the four seed models, and then use regression algorithm to integrate the model and predict the passenger flow, station boarding and landing, and cross-sectional passenger flow data of the typical representative line 428 in the “Huitian Area” of Beijing from January 1, 2020, to May 31, 2020. Finally, the prediction results of the submodels are compared with those of the integrated model to verify the superiority of the integrated model. The research results of this paper can enrich the short-term passenger flow forecasting system of urban public transportation and provide effective data support and scientific basis for the passenger flow, vehicle management, and dispatch of urban public transportation. (shrink)

As more objections have been raised against grant peer-review for being costly and time-consuming, the legitimate question arises whether machine learning algorithms could help assess the epistemic efficiency of the proposed projects. As a case study, we investigated whether project efficiency in high energy physics can be algorithmically predicted based on the data from the proposal. To analyze the potential of algorithmic prediction in HEP, we conducted a study on data about the structure and outcomes of HEP experiments with the (...) goal of predicting their efficiency. In the first step, we assessed the project efficiency using Data Envelopment Analysis of 67 experiments conducted in the HEP laboratory Fermilab. In the second step, we employed predictive algorithms to detect which team structures maximize the epistemic performance of an expert group. For this purpose, we used the efficiency scores obtained by DEA and applied predictive algorithms – lasso and ridge linear regression, neural network, and gradient boosted trees – on them. The results of the predictive analyses show moderately high accuracy, indicating that they can be beneficial as one of the steps in grant review. Still, their applicability in practice should be approached with caution. Some of the limitations of the algorithmic approach are the unreliability of citation patterns, unobservable variables that influence scientific success, and the potential predictability of the model. (shrink)

In the current performance evaluation works of commercial banks, most of the researches only focus on the relationship between a single characteristic and performance and lack a comprehensive analysis of characteristics. On the other hand, they mainly focus on causal inference and lack systematic quantitative conclusions from the perspective of prediction. This paper is the first to comprehensively investigate the predictability of multidimensional features on commercial bank performance using boosting regression tree. The dimensionality in the financial-related fields is relatively (...) high. There are not only observable price data, financial fundamentals data, etc., but also many unobservable undisclosed data and undisclosed events; more sources of income cannot be explained by existing models. Aiming at the characteristics of commercial bank data, this paper proposes an adaptively reduced step size gradient boosting regression tree algorithm for bank performance evaluation. In this method, a random subsample sampling is performed before training each regression tree. The adaptive reduction step size is used to replace the reduction step size setting of the original algorithm, which overcomes the shortcomings of low accuracy and poor generalization ability of the existing regression decision tree model. Compared to the BIRCH algorithm for classification of existing data, our proposed gradient boosting regression tree algorithm with adaptively reduced step size obtains better classification results. This paper empirically uses data from rural banks in 30 provinces in China to classify the different characteristics of rural banks’ performance in order to better evaluate their performance. (shrink)

Alzheimer's Disease is a form of dementia that affects the memory, cognition, and motor skills of patients. Extensive research has been done to develop accessible, cost-effective, and non-invasive techniques for the automatic detection of AD. Previous research has shown that speech can be used to distinguish between healthy patients and afflicted patients. In this paper, the ADReSS dataset, a dataset balanced by gender and age, was used to automatically classify AD from spontaneous speech. The performance of five classifiers, as well (...) as a convolutional neural network and long short-term memory network, was compared when trained on audio features and text features. The same audio and text features were used to train five regression models to predict the Mini-Mental State Examination score for each patient, a score that has a maximum value of 30. The top-performing classification models were the support vector machine and random forest classifiers trained on BERT embeddings, which both achieved an accuracy of 85.4% on the test set. The best-performing regression model was the gradient boosting regression model trained on BERT embeddings and CLAN features, which had a root mean squared error of 4.56 on the test set. The performance on both tasks illustrates the feasibility of using speech to classify AD and predict neuropsychological scores. (shrink)

Background and objectivesThe study of brain functional connectivity alterations in children with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder has been the subject of considerable investigation, but the biological mechanisms underlying these changes remain poorly understood. Here, we aim to investigate the brain alterations in patients with ADHD and Typical Development children and accurately classify ADHD children from TD controls using the graph-theoretical measures obtained from resting-state fMRI.Materials and methodsWe investigated the performances of rs-fMRI data for classifying drug-naive children with ADHD from TD controls. Fifty (...) six drug-naive ADHD children and 56 age matched TD controls were included in this study. The graph measures extracted from rs-fMRI functional connectivity were used as features. Extracted network-based features were fed to the RFE feature selection algorithm to select the most discriminating subset of features. We trained and tested Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting using Peking center data from ADHD-200 database to classify ADHD and TD children using discriminative features. In addition to the machine learning approach, the statistical analysis was conducted on graph measures to discover the differences in the brain network of patients with ADHD.ResultsAn accuracy of 78.2% was achieved for classifying drug-naive children with ADHD from TD controls employing the optimal features and the GB classifier. We also performed a hub node analysis and found that the number of hubs in TD controls and ADHD children were 8 and 5, respectively, indicating that children with ADHD have disturbance of critical communication regions in their brain network. The findings of this study provide insight into the neurophysiological mechanisms underlying ADHD.ConclusionPattern recognition and graph measures of the brain networks, based on the rs-fMRI data, can efficiently assist in the classification of ADHD children from TD controls. (shrink)

Nowadays, online product reviews have been at the heart of the product assessment process for a company and its customers. They give feedback to a company on improving product quality, planning, and monitoring its business schemes in order to increase sale and gain more profit. They are also helpful for customers to select the right products in less effort and time. Most companies make spam reviews of products in order to increase the products sales and gain more profit. Detecting spam (...) product reviews is a challenging issue in NLP. Numerous machine learning approaches have attempted to detect and classify the product reviews as spam or nonspam. However, in order to improve the classification accuracy, this study has introduced an ensemble machine learning model that combines predictions from multilayer perceptron, K-Nearest Neighbour, and Random Forest and predicts the outcome of the review as spam or real, based on the majority vote of the contributing models. In order to accomplish the task of spam review classification, the proposed ensemble and other benchmark boosting approaches are tested with 25 statistical features extracted from mobile application reviews of Yelp Dataset. Then, three different selection techniques are exploited to diminish the feature space and filter out the top 10 optimal features. The effectiveness of the proposed ensemble, the individual models, and other benchmark boosting approaches is again evaluated with 10 optimal features in terms of classification accuracy. Experimental outcomes illustrate that the proposed ensemble model outperformed the individual classifiers and state-of-the-art boosting approaches like Generalized Boost Regression Model, Extreme Gradient Boost, and AdaBoost Regression Model in terms of classification accuracy. (shrink)

Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall (...) events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine, Bayesian regularized neural networks, Bayesian additive regression trees, extreme gradient boosting, and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error of 0.678 compared with HNFIS, BART, xgBoost, and ELM. Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably. (shrink)

With the rapid development of science and technology, UAVs have become a new type of weapon in the informatization battlefield by their advantages of low loss and zero casualty rate. In recent years, UAV navigation electromagnetic decoy and electromagnetic interference crashes have activated widespread international attention. The UAV LiDAR detection system is susceptible to electromagnetic interference in a complex electromagnetic environment, which results in inaccurate detection and causes the mission to fail. Therefore, it is very necessary to predict the effects (...) of the electromagnetic environment. Traditional electromagnetic environment effect prediction methods mostly use a single model of mathematical model and machine learning, but the traditional prediction method has poor processing nonlinear ability and weak generalization ability. Therefore, this paper uses the Stacking fusion model algorithm in machine learning to study the electromagnetic environment effect prediction. This paper proposes a Stacking fusion model based on machine learning to predict electromagnetic environment effects. The method consists of Extreme Gradient Boosting algorithm, Gradient Boosting Decision Tree algorithm, K Nearest Neighbor algorithm, and Decision Tree algorithm. Experimental results show that, comprising with the other seven machine learning algorithms, the Stacking fusion model has a better classification prediction accuracy of 0.9762, a lower Hamming code distance of 0.0336, and a higher Kappa coefficient of 0.955. The fusion model proposed in this paper has a better predictive effect on electromagnetic environment effects and is of great significance for improving the accuracy and safety of UAV LiDAR detection systems under the complex electromagnetic environment on the battlefield. (shrink)

The crime is difficult to predict; it is random and possibly can occur anywhere at any time, which is a challenging issue for any society. The study proposes a crime prediction model by analyzing and comparing three known prediction classification algorithms: Naive Bayes, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree. The model analyzes the top ten crimes to make predictions about different categories, which account for 97% of the incidents. These two significant crime classes, that is, violent and (...) nonviolent, are created by merging multiple smaller classes of crimes. Exploratory data analysis is performed to identify the patterns and understand the trends of crimes using a crime dataset. The accuracies of Naive Bayes, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree techniques are 65.82%, 63.43%, and 98.5%, respectively, and the proposed model is further evaluated for precision and recall matrices. The results show that the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree prediction model is better than the other two techniques for predicting crime, based on historical data from a city. The analysis and prediction model can help the security agencies utilize the resources efficiently, anticipate the crime at a specific time, and serve society well. (shrink)

In recent years, social networks have made significant progress and the number of people who use them to communicate is increasing day by day. The vast amount of information available on social networks has led to the importance of using friend recommender systems to discover knowledge about future communications. It is challenging to choose the best machine learning approach to address the recommender system issue since there are several strategies with various benefits and drawbacks. In light of this, a solution (...) based on the stacking approach was put out in this study to provide a buddy recommendation system in social networks. Additionally, a decrease in system performance was caused by the large amount of information that was accessible and the inefficiency of some functions. To solve this problem, a particle swarm optimization algorithm to select the most efficient features was used in our proposed method. To learn the model in the objective function of the particle swarm algorithm, a hybrid system based on stacking is proposed. In this method, two random forests and Extreme Gradient Boosting had been used as the base classifiers. The results obtained from these base classifiers were used in the logistic regression algorithm, which has been applied sequentially. The suggested approach was able to effectively address this issue by combining the advantages of the applied strategies. The results of implementation and evaluation of the proposed system show the appropriate efficiency of this method compared with other studied techniques. (shrink)

Of all the different types of public buildings, hospitals are the biggest energy consumers. Cooling systems for air conditioning and healthcare uses are particularly energy intensive. Forecasting hospital thermal-cooling demand is a remarkable and innovative method capable of improving the overall energy efficiency of an entire cooling system. Predictive models allow users to forecast the activity of water-cooled generators and adapt power generation to the real demand expected for the day ahead, while avoiding inefficient subcooling. In addition, the maintenance costs (...) related to unnecessary starts and stops and power-generator breakdowns occurring over the long term can be reduced. This study is based on the operations of a real hospital facility and details the steps taken to develop an optimal and efficient model based on a genetic methodology that searches for low-complexity models through feature selection, parameter tuning and parsimonious model selection. The methodology, called GAparsimony, has been tested with neural networks, support vector machines and gradient boosting techniques. Finally, a weighted combination of the three best models was created. The new operational method employed herein can be replicated in similar buildings with similar water-cooled generators. (shrink)

Job seekers find themselves increasingly duped and misled by fraudulent job advertisements, posing a threat to their privacy, security and well-being. There is a clear need for solutions that can protect innocent job seekers. Existing approaches to detecting fraudulent jobs do not scale well, function like a black-box, and lack interpretability, which is essential to guide applicants’ decision-making. Moreover, commonly used lexical features may be insufficient as the representation does not capture contextual semantics of the underlying document. Hence, this paper (...) explores to what extent different categorizations of fraudulent jobs can be classified. In addition, this paper seeks to find what type of features are most relevant in classifying the type of fraudulent job. In this paper, we develop and validate a machine learning system for identifying identity theft, corporate identity theft and multi-level marketing amongst fraudulent job advertisements. We utilized four classes of features: empirical rule set-based features, bag-of-word models, most recent state-of-the-art word embeddings and transformer models for various machine learning classifiers. The machine learning models were validated by evaluating them on a publicly available job description dataset. Our results indicate that the word embeddings and transformer-based features consistently outperformed the handcrafted rule-set based features class. Ultimately, a Gradient Boosting classifier with a combination of empirical rule-set based features, parts-of-speech tags and bag-of-words vectors achieved the best performance with an F1-score of 0.88. (shrink)

The car-sharing system is a popular rental model for cars in shared use. It has become particularly attractive due to its flexibility; that is, the car can be rented and returned anywhere within one of the authorized parking slots. The main objective of this research work is to predict the car usage in parking stations and to investigate the factors that help to improve the prediction. Thus, new strategies can be designed to make more cars on the road and fewer (...) in the parking stations. To achieve that, various machine learning models, namely vector autoregression, support vector regression, eXtreme gradient boosting, k-nearest neighbors, and deep learning models specifically long short-time memory, gated recurrent unit, convolutional neural network, CNN-LSTM, and multilayer perceptron, were performed on different kinds of features. These features include the past usage levels, Chongqing’s environmental conditions, and temporal information. After comparing the obtained results using different metrics, we found that CNN-LSTM outperformed other methods to predict the future car usage. Meanwhile, the model using all the different feature categories results in the most precise prediction than any of the models using one feature category at a time. (shrink)

This paper constructs a predictive model of student reading literacy based on data from students who participated in the Program for International Student Assessment from four provinces/municipalities of China, i.e., Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang. We calculated the contribution of influencing factors in the model by using eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm and sHapley additive exPlanations values, and get the following findings: Factors that have the greatest impact on students’ reading literacy are from individual and family levels, with school-level (...) factors taking a relative back seat. The most important influencing factors at individual level are reading metacognition and reading interest. The most important factors at family level are ESCS and language environment, and dialect is negative for reading literacy, whereas proficiency in both a dialect and Mandarin plays a positive role. At the school level, the most important factors are time dedicated to learning and class discipline, and we found that there is an optimal value for learning time, which suggests that reasonable learning time is beneficial, but overextended learning time may make academic performance worse instead of improving it. (shrink)

Construction cost estimation is one of the essential processes in construction management. Project cost is a complex engineering problem due to various factors affecting the construction industry. Accurate cost estimation is important in construction management and significantly impacts project performance. Artificial intelligence models have been effectively implemented in construction management studies in recent years owing to their capability to deal with complex problems. In this research, extreme gradient boosting is developed as an advanced input selector algorithm and coupled (...) with three AI models, including random forest, artificial neural network, and support vector machine for cost estimation. Datasets were gathered based on a survey conducted on 90 building projects in Iraq. Statistical indicators and graphical methods were used to evaluate the developed models. Several input predictors were used, and XGBoost highlighted inflation as the most crucial parameter. The results indicated that the best prediction was attained by XGBoost-RF using six input parameters, with r-squared and the mean absolute percentage error equal to 0.87 and 0.25, respectively. The comparison results revealed that all AI models showed good prediction performance when applied to datasets affected by more than two parameters. The outcomes of this research revealed an optimistic strategy that can help decision makers select the influencing parameters in the early phases of project management. Also, developing a prediction model with high precision results can assist the project’s estimators in decreasing the errors in the cost estimation process. (shrink)

Knowing the level of quality from which the context is no longer valuable in a Context-Aware Data Mining (CADM) system is an important information. The main goal of this research is to study the variations of the predictions in case of different levels of noise and missing context data in practical scenarios for predicting soil moisture. The research has been performed on two locations from the Transylvanian Plain, Romania and two locations from Canada. The values predicted for the soil moisture (...) were compared in mixed scenarios that vary the quantity of noise and missing context data. The studied behavior was performed using Deep Learning, Decision Tree and Gradient Boosted Tree machine learning algorithms. It has been shown that when using the air temperature as context for predicting soil moisture, variations of noise and missing data do not influence the results proportionally with the levels of noise and missing data applied. Also, Gradient Boosted Tree algorithm proves to be the best algorithm from the ones studied, to be considered when predicting soil moisture with the CADM approach. (shrink)

AdaBoost has been successfully applied to a number of classification tasks, seemingly defying problems of overfitting. AdaBoost performs gradient descent in an error function with respect to the margin. This method concentrates on the patterns which are hardest to learn. However, this property of AdaBoost can be disadvantageous for noisy problems. Indeed, theoretical analysis has shown that the margin distribution plays a crucial role in understanding this phenomenon. Loosely speaking, some outliers should be tolerated if this has the benefit (...) of substantially increasing the margin on the remaining points. In this paper, we propose new noise robust boosting methods using the concepts of ν-Support Vector Classification and Arc-GV. These methods allow for the probability of a pre-specified fraction ν of points to lie in the margin area or even on the wrong side of the decision boundary. This algorithms can give a nicely interpretable way of controlling the trade-off between minimizing the training error and capacity. (shrink)

Nudge and boost are two competing approaches to applying the psychology of reasoning and decision making to improve policy. Whereas nudges rely on manipulation of choice architecture to steer people towards better choices, the objective of boosts is to develop good decision-making competences. Proponents of both approaches claim capacity to enhance social welfare through better individual decisions. We suggest that such efforts should involve a more careful analysis of how individual and social welfare are related in the policy context. First, (...) individual rationality is not always sufficient or necessary for improving collective outcomes. Second, collective outcomes of complex social interactions among individuals are largely ignored by the focus of both nudge and boost on individual decisions. We suggest that the design of mechanisms and social norms can sometimes lead to better collective outcomes than nudge and boost, and present conditions under which the three approaches (nudge, boost, and design) can be expected to enhance social welfare. (shrink)

Cognition played a pivotal role in the acceleration of technological innovation during the Industrial Revolution. Growing affluence may have provided favourable environmental conditions for a boost in cognition, enabling individuals to tackle more complex problems. Dynamical systems thinking may provide useful tools to describe sudden transitions like the Industrial Revolution, by modelling the recursive feedback between psychology and environment.

The automatic prediction of court case judgments using Deep Learning and Natural Language Processing is challenged by the variety of norms and regulations, the inherent complexity of the forensic language, and the length of legal judgments. Although state-of-the-art transformer-based architectures and Large Language Models (LLMs) are pre-trained on large-scale datasets, the underlying model reasoning is not transparent to the legal expert. This paper jointly addresses court judgment prediction and explanation by not only predicting the judgment but also providing legal experts (...) with sentence-based explanations. To boost the performance of both tasks we leverage a legal named entity recognition step, which automatically annotates documents with meaningful domain-specific entity tags and masks the corresponding fine-grained descriptions. In such a way, transformer-based architectures and Large Language Models can attend to in-domain entity-related information in the inference process while neglecting irrelevant details. Furthermore, the explainer can boost the relevance of entity-enriched sentences while limiting the diffusion of potentially sensitive information. We also explore the use of in-context learning and lightweight fine-tuning to tailor LLMs to the legal language style and the downstream prediction and explanation tasks. The results obtained on a benchmark dataset from the Indian judicial system show the superior performance of entity-aware approaches to both judgment prediction and explanation. (shrink)

The concept of wild food does not play a significant role in contemporary nutritional science and it is seldom regarded as a salient feature within standard dietary guidelines. The knowledge systems of wild edible taxa are indeed at risk of disappearing. However, recent scholarship in ethnobotany, field biology, and philosophy demonstrated the crucial role of wild foods for food biodiversity and food security. The knowledge of how to use and consume wild foods is not only a means to deliver high-end (...) culinary offerings, but also a way to foster alternative models of consumption. Our aim in this paper is to provide a conceptual framework for wild foods, which can account for diversified wild food ontologies. In the first section of the paper, we survey the main conception of wild foods provided in the literature, what we call the Nature View. We argue that this view falls short of capturing characteristics that are core to a sound account of wilderness in a culinary sense. In the second part of the paper, we provide the foundation for an improved model of wild food, which can countenance multiple dimensions and degrees connoting wilderness in the culinary world. In the third part of the paper we argue that thanks to a more nuanced ontological analysis, the gradient framework can serve ethnobiologists, philosophers, scientists, and policymakers to represent and negotiate theoretical conflicts on the nature of wild food. (shrink)

Two experiments examined similarities and differences in the effects of consciously and unconsciously perceived rewards on the active maintenance of goal-relevant information. Participants could gain high and low monetary rewards for performance on a word span task. The reward value was presented supraliminally or subliminally at different stages during the task. In Experiment 1, rewards were presented before participants processed the target words. Enhanced performance was found in response to higher rewards, regardless whether they were presented supraliminally or subliminally. In (...) Experiment 2, rewards were presented after participants processed the target words, i.e., during maintenance. Performance increased in response to relatively high rewards when they were presented subliminally, but decreased when they were presented supraliminally. We conclude that both consciously and unconsciously perceived rewards boost resources supporting the maintenance of task-relevant information. Conscious processing of rewards can, however, heavily interfere with an ongoing maintenance process and impair performance. (shrink)

If citizens’ behavior threatens to harm others or seems not to be in their own interest, it is not uncommon for governments to attempt to change that behavior. Governmental policy makers can apply established tools from the governmental toolbox to this end. Alternatively, they can employ new tools that capitalize on the wealth of knowledge about human behavior and behavior change that has been accumulated in the behavioral sciences. Two contrasting approaches to behavior change are nudge policies and boost policies. (...) These policies rest on fundamentally different research programs on bounded rationality, namely, the heuristics and biases program and the simple heuristics program, respectively. This article examines the policy–theory coherence of each approach. To this end, it identifies the necessary assumptions underlying each policy and analyzes to what extent these assumptions are implied by the theoretical commitments of the respective research program. Two key results of this analysis are that the two policy approaches rest on diverging assumptions and that both suffer from disconnects with the respective theoretical program, but to different degrees: Nudging appears to be more adversely affected than boosting does. The article concludes with a discussion of the limits of the chosen evaluative dimension, policy–theory coherence, and reviews some other benchmarks on which policy programs can be assessed. (shrink)

The two parameters of leaf dimension namely, length and width, show inverse correlation with the third parameter, the thickness. A thermal diffusion model is proposed which explains the inverse relationship between these and envisages that while leaf length and width are directly influenced by the microclimate the thickness is affected by the microclimate through endoclimate and energy balance in the leaves. The significance of the model is discussed in the light of its importance in assessing the survival range of plant (...) species along the altitudinal gradient. (shrink)

The so-called “conciliatory” norm in epistemology and meta-ethics requires that an agent, upon encountering peer disagreement with her judgment, lower her confidence about that judgment. But whether agents actually abide by this norm is unclear. Although confidence is excessively researched in the empirical sciences, possible effects of disagreement on confidence have been understudied. Here, we target this lacuna, reporting a study that measured confidence about moral beliefs before and after exposure to moral discourse about a controversial issue. Our findings indicate (...) that participants do not abide by the conciliatory norm. Neither do they conform to a rival “steadfast” norm that demands their confidence to remain the same. Instead, moral discourse seems to boost confidence. Interestingly, we also find a confidence boost for factual beliefs, and a correlation between the extremity of moral views and confidence. One possible explanation of our findings is that when engaging in moral discourse participants become more extreme in their opinions, which leads them to become more confident about them, or vice versa: they become more confident and in turn more extreme. Although our work provides initial evidence for the former mechanism, further research is needed for a better understanding of confidence and moral discourse. (shrink)

Recent decades have witnessed the rapid evolution of robotic applications and their expansion into a variety of spheres with remarkable achievements. This article researches a crucial technique of robot manipulators referred to as visual servoing, which relies on the visual feedback to respond to the external information. In this regard, the visual servoing issue is tactfully transformed into a quadratic programming problem with equality and inequality constraints. Differing from the traditional methods, a gradient-based recurrent neural network for solving the (...) visual servoing issue is newly proposed in this article in the light of the gradient descent method. Then, the stability proof is presented in theory with the pixel error convergent exponentially to zero. Specifically speaking, the proposed method is able to impel the manipulator to approach the desired static point while maintaining physical constraints considered. After that, the feasibility and superiority of the proposed GRNN are verified by simulative experiments. Significantly, the proposed visual servo method can be leveraged to medical robots and rehabilitation robots to further assist doctors in treating patients remotely. (shrink)