Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (...) (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period’s discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing—rather than merely cost savings—again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. (shrink)

(2014). Explosive Population Growth in Tropical Africa: Crucial Omission in Development Forecasts—Emerging Risks and Way Out. World Futures: Vol. 70, No. 2, pp. 120-139.

This communication presents a very simple model for the global growth of the human population. It is shown that the solution of the simple equation.

Literature on ethical behavior has paid little attention to the mechanism between macro-environmental variables and environmental performance. This study aims at constructing a model to examine the relationships which link cultural values, population growth, economic development, and environmental performance by incorporating the mediating role of education. The multiple linear regression model was employed to test the hypotheses on a 3-year-pooled sample of 51 countries. Empirical results conclude that national culture, economic development, and population growth would significantly (...) influence environmental performance directly. In addition, through the mediating effect of education, population growth and national culture would significantly affect environmental performance indirectly. These findings provide theoretical and managerial implications for constructing the mechanism of cultural values and ethical behavior in general and environmental management in particular. (shrink)

A basic model of hierarchical structure, expressed by simple, linear differential equations, shows that the pattern of population growth is essentially determined by conditions of redundancy in the sub-structure of individuals. There does not exist any possible combination between growth rate and accident rate that could balance population numbers and/or the level of redundancy within the population; all possible combinations either lead to extinction or to positive population growth with a decline of the (...) fraction of individuals with redundant substructure. Declining populations, however, can be held fluctuating between certain limits by periodic phases of sub-unit repair. These results are particularly pertinent to the population dynamics of diploid (polyploid) organisms. (shrink)

The human population grew at very low average rates for most of its existence. Mortality was reasonably severe and expectation of life at birth was low. The level of fertility necessary to achieve even inifinitesimal population growth under such mortality implies birth intervals sufficiently short to conflict with the ability to care for and carry children in a mobile foraging economy. Techniques for the control of mortality, especially of children before puberty and of women in childbirth, and (...) of child care exchange, probably developed by females, may have been essential in permitting population growth under conditions of mobile foraging. (shrink)

Many ecologists have dismissed alleged ecological laws as tautological or trivial. This essay investigates the epistemological status of one prominent such "law," the population-growth thesis, and argues for 4 claims: (1) Once interpreted, the thesis cannot be denied the status of empirical law on the grounds that it is always and everywhere untestable. (2) Contrary to Peters' (1991) claim, some interpretations of the thesis have significant heuristic power. (3) One can use the reasoning of Brandon (1990), Lloyd (1987), (...) and Sober (1984) to show that some interpretations of the thesis are not a priori. (4) Even if the thesis is a priori, it has explanatory power as a "schematic law.". (shrink)

The axiom of extensionality of set theory states that any two classes that have identical members are identical. Yet the class of persons age i at time t and the class of persons age i + 1 at t + l, both including same persons, possess different demographic attributes, and thus appear to be two different classes. The contradiction could be resolved by making a clear distinction between age groups and cohorts. Cohort is a multitude of individuals, which is constituted (...) within a time interval, and endures throughout part of the time continuum. Age group, on the other hand, is only a reference term to which empirical measurement relates, as in birth or death rates. Accordingly, the two concepts, age group i at t, and age group i + 1 at t + 1, are different. The standard population growth model of Leslie and Lotka, however, does not support such a distinction in age groups. An alternative model, proposed recently, implies precisely such a distinction. (shrink)

In the epigraph, Fisher is blaming two generations of theoretical biologists, from Darwin on, for ignoring Quetelet's statistical techniques and hence harboring confusions about evolution and natural selection. He is right to imply that Darwin and his contemporaries were aware of the core of Quetelet's work. Quetelet's seminal monograph, Sur L'homme, was widely discussed in Darwin's academic circles. We know that Darwin owned a copy (Schweber 1977). More importantly, we have in Darwin's notebooks two entries referring to Quetelet's work on (...) the cause of a large-scale global phenomenon where each year more boys were born than girls. The first entry is written sometime between April and July 1838. Darwin writes "Find out from the Statistical Society—where M. Quetelet has published his laws about sexes relative to age of Marriages" (C 268, Barrett et al., 1987, p. 324). The second is written sometime after October 16, 1838: "In the Atheneum Numbers 406, 407, 409, Quetelet papers are given, & I think facts there mentioned about proportion of sexes, at birth & causes" (Ibid, p. 379). So, even if Darwin did not read Sur L'homme directly it is likely (though not certain) that he read its review in the Atheneum. There is no doubt that Darwin eventually became familiar with Quetelet's work in statistics. The smoking gun is an essay that Darwin writes in 1874, entitled, "On the Males and Complemental Males of Certain Cirripedes, and on Rudimentary Structures" where he discusses Quetelet's laws of variation. (shrink)

We examine the comportment of the global trajectory of a piecewisely conceived single species population growth model. Formulation relies on what we develop as the principle of limiting factors for population growth, adapted from the law of the minimum of Liebig and the law of the tolerance of Shelford. The ensuing paradigm sets natality and mortality rates to express through extreme values of population growth determining factor. Dynamics through time occur over different growth (...) phases. Transition points are interpreted as thresholds of viability, starvation, and intraspecific competition. In this delivery, we focus on the qualitative study of the global trajectory expressed on continuous time and on exploring the feasibility of analytical results against data on populations growing under experimental or natural conditions. All study cases sustained fittings of high reproducibility both at empirical and interpretative slants. Possible phase configurations include regimes with multiple stable equilibria, sigmoidal growth, extinction, or stationarity. Here, we also outline that the associating discrete-time piecewise model composes the logistic map applied over a particular region of the phase configuration. Preliminary exploratory analysis suggests that the logistic map’s chaos onset could surpass once the orbit enters a contiguous phase region. (shrink)

Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant. The growth of the number of people expresses the sum outcome of all economic, social and cultural activities that comprise human history. Demographic data in a concise and quantitative way describe this process in the past and present. By applying the concepts of nonlinear dynamics and synergetics, it is possible to work out a mathematical model for a phenomenological description of the global demographic process and project (...) its trends into the future. Assuming self-similarity as the dynamic principle of development, growth can be described over practically the whole of human history, with a growth rate proportional to the square of the number of people. This is due to a collective interaction, responsible for the growth of human numbers, as the result of the informational nature of development. The large parameter of the theory and the effective size of a coherent population group is of the order of 105. As the microscopic parameter of the phenomenology, the human life span is introduced into the theory. Estimates of the beginning of human development 4-5 million years ago and of the total number of people who have ever lived since then ≈ 100 billion are made. In the framework of the model, large scale cycles defined by history and anthropology are shown to follow an exponential pattern of growth, culminating in the demographic transition, a veritable revolution when population growth is to stabilize at 10 to 12 billion. (shrink)

Sigmoid functions have been applied in many areas to model self limited population growth. The most popular functions; General Logistic (GL), General von Bertalanffy (GV), and Gompertz (G), comprise a family of functions called Theta Logistic ( $$ \Uptheta $$ L ). Previously, we introduced a simple model of tumor cell population dynamics which provided a unifying foundation for these functions. In the model the total population ( N ) is divided into reproducing ( P ) (...) and non-reproducing/quiescent ( Q ) sub-populations. The modes of the rate of change of ratio P / N was shown to produce GL, GV or G growth. We now generalize the population dynamics model and extend the possible modes of the P / N rate of change. We produce a new family of sigmoid growth functions, Trans-General Logistic (TGL), Trans-General von Bertalanffy (TGV) and Trans-Gompertz (TG)), which as a group we have named Trans-Theta Logistic ( T $$ \Uptheta $$ L ) since they exist when the $$ \Uptheta $$ L are translated from a two parameter into a three parameter phase space. Additionally, the model produces a new trigonometric based sigmoid ( TS ). The $$ \Uptheta $$ L sigmoids have an inflection point size fixed by a single parameter and an inflection age fixed by both of the defining parameters. T $$ \Uptheta $$ L and TS sigmoids have an inflection point size defined by two parameters in bounding relationships and inflection point age defined by three parameters (two bounded). While the Theta Logistic sigmoids provided flexibility in defining the inflection point size, the Trans-Theta Logistic sigmoids provide flexibility in defining the inflection point size and age. By matching the slopes at the inflection points we compare the range of values of inflection point age for T $$ \Uptheta $$ L versus $$ \Uptheta $$ L for model growth curves. (shrink)

A population policy, that assures the negative freedom of the individuals who are not forced to proceed on abortion, their well-being and their positive freedom of escaping from preventable mortality, of avoiding mortality during infancy and childhood, of being free from hunger and undernutrition, is possible in developing countries, if the developed states should realize that they overconsume and that they use nature as their own resource, at the expense of the rest of the world.By avoiding rich nations' overconsumption (...) and injustice towards the poor ones we are moving towards a restraint on resource depletion, environmental degradation, poverty and population explosion, on the destruction of a sustainable life in general. (shrink)

James V. Neel, one of the leading human geneticists of the 21st Century, has long been concerned about the consequences of human overpopulation and the accompanying destruction of the earth's ecosystem. His point of view, summarized in this paper, is contrasted with some recent optimistic projections presented by demographers and population biologists who believe the population bomb has been defused by evidence of a decrease in worldwide fertility along with a significant increase in food production. The authors of (...) this paper are not so optimistic and see a continuing need for concern rather than complacency based on ever increasing human wants and aspirations together with the minimal results of recent environmental summits. The case of HIV/aids is used to illustrate the evolutionary implications of the interaction between population dynamics and genetic change based on the concepts of population bottlenecks, genetic drift and founder effects. What becomes evident from this illustration is that epidemics by viral and other pathogens in the 21st Century can affect the size of human populations and thereby the course of the species' evolutionary makeup. The potential of evolutionary medicine and in particular molecular biology to improve our prediction capabilities and modulate some of the possible consequences is discussed. (shrink)

Malthus's Essay on the Principle of Population has for the past two centuries been a constant source of inspiration and debate for scholars working on relationships between population and economy in a historical perspective. This book sets a new standard in this active and influential field of research. The contributors go beyond the conventional European and North American geographical boundaries, bringing out new empirical findings and developing new arguments. The volume is divided into three parts. The first part (...) takes up classical issues -- the 'positive' and the 'preventive' checks and their determinants -- raised by Malthus himself, and examines the issues against fresh evidence from Europe, America, and Asia. These issues are also themes of the second part, which is devoted to short-term fluctuations in mortality and fertility in relation to prices, wages, and other economic indicators. The final set of chapters is a coherent collection of technically sophisticated articles from an on-going international joint project concerned with how households respond to economic stress in different economic, social, and cultural settings, in traditional China, Japan, Sweden, Belgium, and Italy. With a brief, but well-organized introduction, this collection of scholarly essays offers both demographers and economic historians a wealth of exciting findings and stimulating insights. (shrink)

Malthus's Essay on the Principle of Population has for the past two centuries been a constant source of inspiration and debate for scholars working on relationships between population and economy in a historical perspective. This book sets a new standard in this active and influential field of research. The contributors go beyond the conventional European and North American geographical boundaries, bringing out new empirical findings and developing new arguments. The volume is divided into three parts. The first part (...) takes up classical issues -- the 'positive' and the 'preventive' checks and their determinants -- raised by Malthus himself, and examines the issues against fresh evidence from Europe, America, and Asia. These issues are also themes of the second part, which is devoted to short-term fluctuations in mortality and fertility in relation to prices, wages, and other economic indicators. The final set of chapters is a coherent collection of technically sophisticated articles from an on-going international joint project concerned with how households respond to economic stress in different economic, social, and cultural settings, in traditional China, Japan, Sweden, Belgium, and Italy. With a brief, but well-organized introduction, this collection of scholarly essays offers both demographers and economic historians a wealth of exciting findings and stimulating insights. (shrink)

Gypsy people are the most poorly considered minority in Spain. Their current circumstances in relation to growth rate and trend variation in this country are not well known. The main objective of this paper is to show what happens to a person's growth process in a transitional minority group affected by the process of globalisation. As target population and the articulation of social actions to have an implementation of quality of life is an additional objective. The research (...) team, in collaboration with “Apoyo”, an NGO, made contact with each Gypsy family. The sample comprised 189 boys aged 5 to 14 years. The boys and their families have been rehoused in two large buildings, named “Ruedo” and “Herradura”, in an attempt to accommodate the marginal Gypsy population following the disappearance of their shanties in Madrid. Morphological and physiological variables were considered as well as social situation and nutritional habits. Large family size (5–6 children), smoking and coffee- drinking habits and the intake of less than the internationally recommended number of calories after the age of 8 years endangers the healthy growth of these European Union citizens. (shrink)

The debates over the future of human population and the earth’s environment, and similar large issues, usually take place without reference to explicit models. Debate would be clarified if such models were employed. We propose that the logistic equation and its extensions like the generalized logistic and the Lotka-Volterra equations, so familiar to ecologists, can easily be modified to model the important "macro" questions that motivated the three thinkers of our title. The long term rate of population (...) class='Hi'>growth must normally be controlled by the rate of improvement in K, the carrying capacity of the earth. K will in turn be controlled by the rate of technological progress. The present situation, in which technological improvement (but also perhaps environmental deterioration) are increasing at rates above r, the Malthusian intrinsic rate of natural increase, is probably unique in human history. Can present levels of human prosperity and population growth be sustained? What processes are most likely to determine the answer to this and similar questions? We here sketch a model that endogenizes technological progress and environmental deterioration in the logistic framework. We discuss extensions of the logistic approach to multiple populations, such as other species, and sub-populations, such as human social classes, using the Lotka-Volterra equations. (shrink)

This study aims to analyze the impact of Foreign Direct Investment, external debt and population growth on economic progress of Pakistan by using time series data from 1980 to 2014. It analyzes the correlation between Gross Domestic Product,FDI, external debt and population growth. Augmented Dickey Fuller test has been used to check stationarity in time series data. To evaluate the empirical results multiple regression method is used. GDP has been used as a dependent variable while FDI, (...) external debt and population as independent variables. Findings of this paper show the positive and significant impact of FDI, and population growth on GDP but external debt has negative impact on GDP. (shrink)

Analysing the demands of global justice for the distribution of resources is a complex task and requires consideration of a broad range of issues. Of particular relevance is the effect that different distributions will have on global population growth and individual welfare. Since changes in the consumption and distribution of resources can have major effects on the welfare of the global population, and the rate at which it increases, it is important to establish meaningful principles to ensure (...) a just distribution of resources. In order to establish such principles we must consider the scope of any reproductive rights, and rights to other goods, such as food and health care, as well as examine the extent of duties correlating to those rights. In addition to the impact that distributions of global goods have on the welfare of current generations, it is also important to consider what duties we have, if any, to future generations. -/- The final version of this paper is available to download here: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9780470015902.a0024140. (shrink)

This chapter contains sections titled: The Malthusian Warning “Population Control” and its Critics “Leveling Off”: The Demographic Transition The Ethics of Population Programs Optimal Population Size: Fewer with More, or More with Less? A Thought‐Experiment About a Solution to the Population Problem References.