This article effectively identifies the high and low volatility state of asset prices in China by constructing the MS-AR model, and further investigates the relationship between different dimensions of liquidity and asset price volatility. Moreover, we try to incorporate liquidity into the analytical framework and adopt the TVP-SV-VAR model to study the time-varying characteristics between monetary policy, liquidity, asset price volatility and macroeconomy. The results are as follows: firstly, it shows that the high or low volatility state (...) of China’s stock market and real estate market can be clearly divided, and display the consistency with the trend of asset price volatility. Secondly, liquidity has a strong ability to explain the high and low volatility state of asset prices, but it shows some hysteresis effects. Thirdly, the time-varying results reveal that monetary policy has a regulating effect on liquidity, and the response cycle of quantitative monetary policy is relatively short, which reflects the effects of macroeconomy precisely. However, price-based monetary policy has a longer response cycle and plays a vital role in the anticipatory adjustment and fine-tuning of asset price volatility. These conclusions can provide an explanation for the attention to asset price bubbles and potential financial risks, and offer decision-making references for the central bank to implement differentiated and dynamic monetary policy choices. (shrink)

This article argues that the field of asset pricing theory is undergoing a scientific revolution in Kuhnian terms. The orthodox view is one of determinate change in causal processes and inherent stability whereby financial markets, left unfettered, allocate nearly perfectly society's scare capital. However, decades of mounting anomalous evidence against the implications of stable causal processes perpetuated by conventional models based on efficient markets and the rational expectations hypothesis have paved the way for alternative avenues of research. Although (...) various approaches are being developed, the imperfect knowledge economics class of models has emerged as a potential new paradigm in the field of macro-finance. By stopping short of fixing in advance the specification of individual forecasting behavior and the causal process, the IKE class of models has been able to reconcile many of the puzzles found within the literature on asset price behavior and risk. (shrink)

We survey the literature that has explored the implications of decision-making under ambiguity for financial market outcomes, such as portfolio choice and equilibrium asset prices. This ambiguity literature has led to a number of significant advances in our ability to rationalize empirical features of asset returns and portfolio decisions, such as the failure of the two-fund separation theorem in portfolio decisions, the modest exposure to risky securities observed for a majority of investors, the home equity preference in international (...) portfolio diversification, the excess volatility of asset returns, the equity premium and the risk-free rate puzzles, and the occurrence of trading break-downs. (shrink)

(2013). Beyond mechanical markets – asset price swings, risk and the role of the state. Journal of Economic Methodology: Vol. 20, Methodology, Systemic Risk, and the Economics Profession, pp. 69-75. doi: 10.1080/1350178X.2013.774856.

The description of how individual models in families of models are related to each other is crucial for the general philosophical understanding of model-based scientific practice. We focus on the Capital Asset Pricing Models (CAPM) family, a cornerstone in financial economics, to provide a descriptive analysis of model relations within a family. We introduce the concepts of theoretical and empirical complementarity to characterise model relations. Our complementarity analysis of model relations has two types of payoff. Specifically regarding the (...) CAPM, our analysis reveals why this model family, which has been empirically contested, has yet remained popular and important: the different models that have been added over time have made new empirically and theoretically complementary contributions to the model family. More generally, our analysis reveals the dynamic character of model-based scientific practice. Characterising relations between models as theoretically and/or empirically complementary yields three hitherto underappreciated lessons: (i) actual modelling purposes are not always primarily epistemic, (ii) a model's individual import is relative, not absolute, and (iii) there is an important interplay between theory and data models. Faithfully characterising scientific modelling in this way facilitates subsequent analysis of models' epistemic import. (shrink)

In this book, Sharpe changes that by setting out his state-of-the-art approach to asset pricing in a nonmathematical form that will be comprehensible to a broad range of investment professionals, including investment advisors, money ...

Public companies in the US stock market must annually report their activities and financial performances to the SEC by filing the so-called 10-K form. Recent studies have demonstrated that changes in the textual content of the corporate annual filing can convey strong signals of companies’ future returns. In this study, we combine natural language processing techniques and network science to introduce a novel 10-K-based network, named Lazy Network, that leverages year-on-year changes in companies’ 10-Ks detected using a neural network embedding (...) model. The Lazy Network aims to capture textual changes derived from financial or economic changes on the equity market. Leveraging the Lazy Network, we present a novel investment strategy that attempts to select the least disrupted and stable companies by capturing the peripheries of the Lazy Network. We show that this strategy earns statistically significant risk-adjusted excess returns. Specifically, the proposed portfolios yield up to 95 basis points in monthly five-factor alphas, outperforming similar strategies in the literature. (shrink)

DeFinetti took the concept of random variables as gambles very seriously, and used the concept to motivate the familiar concepts of probability and expectation. For each gamble X, he assumed that “You” would assign a value P (X), called the prevision of X so that you would be willing to accept the gamble β[X − P (X)] as fair for all positive and negative values β. The only constraint that deFinetti envisioned for you and your previsions is that you insisted (...) that there be no positive amount that you had to lose for sure. For example, you would not be allowed to call a gamble fair if its supremum were negative. On the other hand, the criterion is weak enough to allow you call a gamble fair if its supremum is 0, even if all of its possible values are negative. (shrink)

We consider fixed and asking price strategies in the context of selling an asset with Bernoullian updating of the seller’s subjective probability of sale at a given price. The determination of optimal fixed, asking and endogenous reservation prices is discussed under risk-neutrality and expected utility maximisation. With risk-neutrality, the optimal asking price exceeds the optimal fixed price when the expected gain is a strictly concave function. The seller’s choice between the fixed and the asking price strategies depends on several (...) factors: the expected cost of haggling, price competition and the seller’s attitude towards risk. (shrink)

The problem of generalizing the power option-pricing model to incorporate more empirical features becomes an urgent and necessary event. A new power option pricing method is designed for the financial market uncertainty that simultaneously involves randomness and fuzziness. The randomness in market uncertainty is modeled by a time-fractional diffusion model, which describes trend memory in underlying asset prices. The fuzziness in market uncertainty is characterized by a triangular interval type-2 fuzzy numbers, which better captures the fuzziness of (...) underlying asset prices. Considering the decision-maker’s subjective judgment, we show the price mean value with the possibility-necessity weight and pessimistic-optimistic index under the type-2 fuzzy environment. We develop the power option pricing model with the time-fractional diffusion model and the triangular interval type-2 fuzzy numbers. Furthermore, the analytic solutions of pricing call power option and put power option are obtained and verified by the variational iterative reconstruction method. Our study shows that power option pricing, which adopts the time-fractional model and the triangular interval type-2 fuzzy numbers, can better capture the trend memory and double fuzziness of the real market. In addition, a numerical example is provided to illustrate that the power option means the value is decreasing with respect to the pessimistic-optimistic index and is fluctuating with respect to the possibility-necessity weight index. (shrink)

The aim of this paper is to calculate the market valuation of non-financial characteristics, namely, the social responsibility criteria included in the Spanish Socially Responsible Investment Funds. The hedonic price method is applied for this purpose. This method relates the price of Socially Responsible Investment Funds with both financial and social responsibility characteristics. Because of the large number of social responsibility characteristics included in these funds, prior to application of the hedonic price method, the principal components factor analysis technique is (...) used. The data are taken from the prospectus for each fund and from the data provided by the National Securities Market Commission. Results indicate that the Spanish market is sensitive to the social responsibility practices of companies. In particular, the market value practices related to environmental sustainability, the enforcement of labour rights, sustainable production and consumption and non-abusive market practices. (shrink)

The marketization of interest rate is an inevitable requirement for China’s financial reform and joining the WTO to connect with the international financial market. It is also an important link to improve the marketization degree of China’s financial system. The marketization of interest rate in China is gradually advancing according to its preset mode. In the process of interest rate marketization, an unavoidable problem is that while the interest rate marketization gives the commercial banks the autonomy of capital pricing, (...) the fluctuation of interest rate is more and more frequent. However, due to the fluctuation of interest rate, the loan as the main assets of commercial banks will be prepayed by borrowers, and the time deposit as the main liabilities of commercial banks will be withdrawn by depositors in advance; that is, embedded options are implied in asset liability items, which makes it difficult for commercial banks to accurately calculate the actual interest margin of deposits and loans and manage the interest rate risk. Therefore, it is of great significance to identify and price such embedded option value. On the basis of identifying and decomposing the embedded options in deposit and loan of commercial banks, according to the change characteristics of deposit and loan interest rate of Chinese commercial banks, this paper chooses jump-diffusion interest rate model to describe the change of benchmark interest rate of deposit and loan in China and demonstrates the advantages of this model compared with other models. Based on Monte Carlo simulation technology, the embedded options of five-year fixed deposit and ten-year prepayable loan in China are priced. On this basis, it points out that the real interest margin of commercial bank’s deposit and loan should be the nominal interest margin minus the value of deposit and loan’s embedded options. In the process of interest rate risk management, we should pay attention to the existence of embedded options and carry out effective management. (shrink)

The core goal of this study is to empirically investigate whether there is a “world price” of corporate sustainability. This is assessed in the context of standard asset pricing models—in particular, by asking whether a risk premium attaches to a sustainability factor after controlling for the Fama–French factors. Both time-series and cross-sectional tests are formulated and applied. The results show that (1) global Fama–French factors have strong power to explain global equity returns and (2) sustainability investments have no (...) significant impact on global equity returns. The absence of a significant relationship between sustainability and returns implies that large institutional investors are free to implement sustainability mandates without fear of breaching their fiduciary duties from realising negative returns due to incorporating a sustainability investment process. (shrink)

As the development trend of the future housing field, green housing is an effective way to reduce pollution, save energy, and promote industrial upgrading. At the same time, the green house is of great significance to change the development mode of the construction industry and promote the sustainable development of the social economy. This study proposes a comprehensive research model to examine the influencing mechanism of residents’ intention to purchase green buildings. The proposed model is empirically tested using data collected (...) from 1,338 urban residents in China. Based on logit, probit, and ivprobit models, factors such as personal characteristics, housing price, and the number of real estate ownership are selected to conduct empirical analysis and mechanism analysis on willingness that affects consumers’ purchase of green houses. The results show that housing assets significantly affect the willingness of householders to pay for green houses. The more houses they own, the higher their willingness to pay for a green house will be. Similarly, if the housing prices are higher, householders are more willing to buy a green house. The amount of housing assets will affect the willingness of householders to pay for green housing through the way of individual happiness. In terms of the characteristics of the householder, if the householder is more educated, unmarried, his willingness to buy a green house will be stronger, and owning housing assets may affect the individual happiness due to the housing wealth effect brought by rising housing prices. People with more housing assets are more likely to have the happiness brought by higher wealth, which may affect the purchase intention of householders. (shrink)

The contemporary process of financialization has been a major driver of the remarkable changes witnessed in global food and agricultural markets over the past decade, contributing to the rise and subsequent volatility of food and agricultural commodity prices since 2006. In the wake of these developments it has become clear that the turmoil has intensified the relationship between agriculture and finance in ways that have profound and enduring implications for the sector, and the people whose lives and livelihoods depend upon (...) it. This symposium brings together four original research articles that contemplate the contemporary relationship between the agrifood and financial sectors. They examine a variety of overlapping themes, including the creation of financial assets from farmland and agricultural commodities, the activities of different types of investors in these assets in specific geographic contexts, and the challenges of governing this activity at the global scale. These articles show that the period of market volatility that began a decade ago re-invigorated investor interest in financial products linked to agriculture and farming, and inspired the packaging of new forms of financial assets in ways that have affected politics and practice on the ground, and are likely to leave a lasting legacy. (shrink)

We study price formulas suited for empirical research in financial markets in which put–call parity is satisfied. We find a connection between risk and the bid–ask spread. We further study the compatibility of the model with market frictions, and determine market subsets where the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing applies. Finally, we characterize the price formula.

This study empirically analyses the exclusion of companies from investors’ investment universe due to a company’s business model or due to a company’s violations of international norms. We conduct a time-series analysis of the performance implications of the exclusion decisions of two leading Nordic investors, Norway’s Government Pension Fund-Global and Sweden’s AP-funds. We find that their portfolios of excluded companies do not generate an abnormal return relative to the funds’ benchmark index. While the exclusion portfolios show higher risk than the (...) respective benchmark, this difference is only statistically significant for the case of GPFG. These findings suggest that the exclusion of the companies generally does not harm funds’ performance. We interpret these findings as indicative that with exclusionary screening, as practiced by the sample funds, asset owners can meet the ethical objectives of their beneficiaries without compromising financial returns. (shrink)

This article aims to answer the question that whether higher education would lead to happier life in China and tries to provide some explanations from the perspective of housing asset. Using data from four waves of China Household Finance Survey, we find that higher education on average is significantly negatively correlated with people's happiness in urban China. Higher education tends to prevent people from achieving “extremely happy” lives; instead, it is more likely to lead to “acceptable” lives. Based on (...) the realities of housing market in urban China, we find that housing asset plays the mediating role in the relationship between higher education and happiness. Specifically, years of schooling could evidently compress the years of being homeowners; as a result, highly educated people generally have more unpaid housing debts and bear more housing purchase costs due to the soaring housing prices. Meanwhile, higher education has negative effect on people's happiness in cities with relatively high housing prices, while this effect is insignificant in cities with relatively low housing prices. Moreover, the market-oriented housing reform that launched in 1998 has negative impact on highly educated people's happiness, since it has dramatically boosted housing prices and essentially changed housing distribution system for urban employees. Besides, we also find that Ph.D graduates are the relatively unhappiest people compared to bachelors or masters. Obviously, our findings have important policy implications for Chinese government to understand and resolve the “education-happiness paradox.”. (shrink)

According to the local risk-neutrality theorem an agent who has the opportunity to invest in an uncertain asset does not buy it or sell it short iff its expected value is equal to its price, independently of the agent's attitude towards risk. Contrary to that it is shown that, in the context of expected utility theory with differentiable vNM utility function, but without the assumption of stochastic constant returns to scale, nondegenerate intervals of no-trade prices may exist. With a (...) quasiconcave expected utility function they do if, and only if, the agent is risk averse of order one. (shrink)

In this paper we investigated how justifications for price increases are associated with risky decision making and emotional responses. Across two studies with paired lottery choices and sequential decisions, we found that participants presented with a justification for price increases based on increasing demand decided to invest in a comparatively riskier asset more often than participants presented with a justification for price increases based on increasing tax or those presented with no justification at all. We also found that participants (...) presented with justifications for price increases based on increasing demand also reported more arousal displayed higher galvanic skin response than people in the other two justification conditions. Together, these studies provide evidence that the sole increasing demand underlying a price increase of a risky asset can influence the decision to buy it and suggests that emotional activation is involved in such a decision process. (shrink)

Liquidity risk arises from the inability to unwind or hedge trading positions at the prevailing market prices. The risk of liquidity is a wide and complex topic as it depends on several factors and causes. While much has been written on the subject, there exists no clear-cut mathematical description of the phenomena and typical market risk modeling methods fail to identify the effect of illiquidity risk. In this paper, we do not propose a definitive one either, but we attempt to (...) derive novel mathematical algorithms for the dynamic modeling of trading volumes during the closeout period from the perspective of multiple-asset portfolio, as well as for financial entities with different subsidiary firms and multiple agents. The robust modeling techniques are based on the application of initial-value-problem differential equations technique for portfolio selection and risk management purposes. This paper provides some crucial parameters for the assessment of the trading volumes of multiple-asset portfolio during the closeout period, where the mathematical proofs for each theorem and corollary are provided. Based on the new developed econophysics theory, this paper presents for the first time a closed-form solution for key parameters for the estimation of trading volumes and liquidity risk, such as the unwinding constant, half-life, and mean lifetime and discusses how these novel parameters can be estimated and incorporated into the proposed techniques. The developed modeling algorithms are appealing in terms of theory and are promising for practical econophysics applications, particularly in developing dynamic and robust portfolio management algorithms in light of the 2007–2009 global financial crunch. In addition, they can be applied to artificial intelligence and machine learning for the policymaking process, reinforcement machine learning techniques for the Internet of Things data analytics, expert systems in finance, FinTech, and within big data ecosystems. (shrink)

The formulation of quantum mechanics as a diffusion process by Nelson provides for an interesting approach on how we may transit from classical mechanics into quantum mechanics. Besides the presence of the real potential function, another type of potential function forms an intrinsic part of this theory. In this paper we attempt to show how both types of potential functions can have a use in a resolutely macroscopic context like financial asset pricing. We are particularly interested in uncovering (...) how the ‘quantum potential’ can add to the economics-based relevant information which is already supplied by the real potential function. (shrink)

We examine the investment skill of socially responsible investment (SRI) fund managers. Prior studies use the ‘alpha’ from standard asset pricing models as a proxy for management skill. However, implicit in the use of such models is that managers operate under no investment constraints. In the SRI context, this is patently false and can lead to biased alpha estimates and false conclusions about the existence of skill. We introduce a novel three-factor Fama–French asset-pricing model with the (...) aim of estimating alpha more accurately and hence investment skill, without bias. This model excludes SRI-prohibited industries such as defense, alcohol, tobacco and gambling in the construction of the Fama–French market, value and size risk factors. We show that the exclusion of the SRI-prohibited industries leads to subtle and complex changes to the risk factors that drive SRI returns. When we re-estimate alpha using the new model we find, in contrast to the conventional Fama–French model, evidence of statistically and economically significant alpha. Furthermore, the risk loadings on the new risk factors are similar to those of the original Fama–French model suggesting that changes in risk loadings are not responsible for the finding of significant skill. (shrink)

In consideration of that the correlation between any two assets of the asset pool is always stochastic in the actual market and that collateralized debt obligation pricing models under nonhomogeneous assumptions have no semianalytic solutions, we designed a numerical algorithm based on randomized quasi-Monte Carlo simulation method for CDO pricing with stochastic correlations under nonhomogeneous assumptions and took Gaussian factor copula model as an example to conduct experiments. The simulation results of RQMC and Monte Carlo method were (...) compared from the perspective of variance changes. The results showed that this numerical algorithm was feasible, efficient, and stable for CDO pricing with stochastic correlation under nonhomogeneous assumptions. This numerical algorithm is expected to be extended to other factor Copula models for CDO pricing with stochastic correlations under nonhomogeneous assumptions. (shrink)

The automated valuation of benchmark land price plays an essential role in regulating land demand in Chinese real-estate market as the big data are currently accumulated rapidly. However, this problem becomes highly challenging due to the multidimension, large volume, and nonlinearity of the land price-influencing factors. In this paper, an effective data-driven automated valuation framework is proposed for valuing real estate assets by combining a GIS and neural network technologies. This framework can automatically obtain the values of spatial factors affecting (...) land price from GIS and generate training set data for training the neural network to identify the complex relationship between all kinds of factors and benchmark land prices. The effectiveness and universality of the framework is verified via the data of benchmark land prices in Wuhan. The framework can be applied for automated benchmark land price valuation in other cities. (shrink)

This paper uses an innovative way to screen stocks and analyzes the relationship between corporate environmental responsibility and long-run stock returns. By our definition, an environmentally responsible (green) company gives no environmental concern and shows environmental strength(s). Using 20 years’ data of 1992–2011, we find evidence that environmentally responsible company outperforms, in the 4th to 7th year after the screening year. An equal-weighted environmentally responsible portfolio earned an annual four-factor alpha of 4.06 % in the 4th year, 3.00 % above (...) industry benchmarks, and 3.87 % above characteristic benchmarks. The results are robust to alternative portfolio weighting methodologies, controlling for firm characteristics, and the removal of outliers. Testing using industry-adjusted Tobin’s Q, we find consistent evidence that environmental strength creates firm value. We argue that environmental responsibility is an intangible asset, likely to be undervalued by the market, especially in the long horizon, thereby causing environmentally responsible companies to exhibit long-horizon excess returns. (shrink)

We investigate how stochastic asset price dynamics with herding and financial constraints in heterogeneous agents’ decisions explain the presence of a period of financial distress (PFD) following the peak and preceding the crash of a bubble, documented by Kindleberger [2000, Appendix B] as common among most major historical speculative bubbles. Simulations show the PFD is due to agents’ wealth distribution dynamics, selling because of financial constraints after the bubble’s peak in relation to switching behavior of agents. An increase in (...) switching tendency increases the length of the PFD and decreases bubble amplitude, while increasing strength of interaction between the agents increases bubble amplitude. (shrink)

Social and environmental ratings provided by social rating agencies are multidimensional. The first goal of our paper is to identify a small number of independent and relevant socially responsible (SR) dimensions reflecting a firms’ coherent posture toward social issues. We put forward that these dimensions are not exactly the same as the ESG ones (Environment, Social, and Governance). Using the six sub-ratings provided by the Vigeo rating agency, we perform a principal component analysis and we highlight three main independent SR (...) dimensions related to (1) business stakeholders (employees, customers, and suppliers), (2) societal stakeholders (environment and society), and (3) financial stakeholders (stockholders and debt holders). The second objective of our paper is to explore the link between stock returns and these three SR dimensions. Our most notable finding is that for each SR dimension, investors ask for an additional risk premium when they accept to hold non-socially responsible stocks. The cost of equity is thus lower for SR firms. The average premium over the period 2003–2010 is larger for the components “business stakeholders” and “financial stakeholders” than for the component “societal stakeholders.” The premium for this last component has only existed since the end of 2008. Since that time, environment and community involvement have become important risk factors strongly considered by investors. For the three dimensions, investors notably penalize large non-social firms and reward small social firms. (shrink)

The economic crisis has exposed shortcomings in standard economic theory and provided an impetus for new economic thinking. But the theoretical debate in the wake of the crisis has been unduly constrained by the terms of the mainstream approach to economic theory. Like any approach, it is characterised by a way of framing reality, giving meaning to terms and setting criteria for good argument. It also determines how any economic theory is understood, whether from the history of economic thought or (...) from the contemporary literature. But there are other approaches to economics which would open up the field to a much wider range of possibilities for new economic thinking. Addressing the challenge that any reader bases her understanding on her own approach, the purpose of this paper is to attempt to explain what it means to consider different approaches and why it matters for policy. This is done by discussing two features of the financial crisis which pose particular problems for economic theory. These are the role of changing market sentiment in driving asset prices on the one hand and the breakdown of trust relationships in banking on the other (the moral hazard issue). We will see how these are addressed by mainstream theory and by alternative approaches. First, market sentiment is discussed within the mainstream rational-optimising framework, where risk is quantifiable, and compared with the Keynesian approach based on the general uncertainty of knowledge, where reason, evidence and sentiment are integrated. The moral hazard issue is then discussed in its mainstream form in terms of rational opportunism and in its institutionalist form in terms of the foundation of social relations (including relations between institutions) in trust. It is shown that different ways of approaching theorising in each case imply different policy measures. It is argued further that an exclusively deductive mathematical approach to analysis of market sentiment and trust is unduly limiting and that a more pluralist approach would more fully address the issues. (shrink)

This paper examines the normative ideas flowing from the contemporary theories that make up the New Finance. These theories include the Irrelevance Theorem, Efficient Market Hypothesis, Capital Asset Pricing Model, Options Pricing Model, and Agency Theory. The behavioral consequences that would ensue if everyone took the normative precepts of the New Finance seriously are subjected to a Kantian analysis to determine their ethical implications. It is concluded that the corporate world in the New Finance is a place (...) where the firm can select any operating and financial strategies that it wishes, and the investors will respond immediately through a combination of homemade portfolio diversification, clever option positions, and carefully constructed agency relationships, all of which results in a pervasive nihilism. Recommendations are offered on how these features of the New Finance might be avoided or moderated. (shrink)

Economists have always recognised that human endeavours are constrained by our limited and uncertain knowledge, but only recently has an accepted theory of uncertainty and information evolved. This theory has turned out to have surprisingly practical applications: for example in analysing stock market returns, in evaluating accident prevention measures, and in assessing patent and copyright laws. This book presents these intellectual advances in readable form for the first time. It unifies many important but partial results into a satisfying single picture, (...) making it clear how the economics of uncertainty and information generalises and extends standard economic analysis. Part One of the volume covers the economics of uncertainty: how each person adapts to a given fixed state of knowledge by making an optimal choice among the immediate 'terminal' actions available. These choices in turn determine the overall market equilibrium reflecting the social distribution of risk bearing. In Part Two, covering the economics of information, the state of knowledge is no longer held fixed. Instead, individuals can to a greater or lesser extent overcome their ignorance by 'informational' actions. The text also addresses at appropriate points many specific topics such as insurance, the Capital Asset Pricing model, auctions, deterrence of entry, and research and invention. (shrink)

We discuss recent work on bounded rationality and learning in relation to Soros' principle of reflexivity and stress the empirical importance of non-rational, almost self-fulfilling equilibria in positive feedback systems. As an empirical example, we discuss a behavioral asset pricing model with heterogeneous expectations. Bubble and crash dynamics is triggered by shocks to fundamentals and amplified by agents switching endogenously between a mean-reverting fundamental rule and a trend-following rule, based upon their relative performance. We also discuss learning-to-forecast laboratory (...) experiments, showing that in positive feedback systems individuals coordinate expectations on non-rational, almost self-fulfilling equilibria with persistent price fluctuations very different from rational equilibria. Economic policy analysis may benefit enormously by focusing on efficiency and welfare gains in correcting mispricing along almost self-fulfilling equilibria. (shrink)

This study formulates a two-factor empirical model under the intertemporal CAPM framework to evaluate the cross-sectional implications of socially responsible investments in the US equity market. Our results show that socially responsible investments have no asset pricing impact on the US market. We argue that this ‘no financial impact’ finding indicates that investors will not be disadvantaged financially by investing in socially responsible funds or corporations.

Professor Vernon L. Smith is a major creator of the new discipline of experimental economics. This collection of his papers from 1962 to 1990 surveys key developments in the field from early attempts to study economic behaviour in now classic double oral auction markets through recent studies of industrial organization and decision making. Topics covered include monopoly and oligopoly, supply and demand theory under posted pricing, uniform pricing, double continuous auction, and sealed bid-offer auctions; hypothetical valuation and market (...) pricing; asset price bubbles; predatory pricing; market contestability and natural monopoly; and the methodology of experimental economics. Taken together, the papers form a history of the study of economics under controlled conditions. (shrink)

Resumen. El siguiente artículo muestra el estado actual de la Responsabilidad Empresarial enMéxico y su efecto en el Riesgo medido a través del Costo de Capital. Para ello, revisamos lasprincipales teorías que muestran que el uso de prácticas sociales en Estados Unidos provocandisminución del riesgo y por ende del Costo de Capital, Aras y Crowther, Richardson yWelker y Diamond y Verrechia. Con el fin de contrastar que las empresas SocialmenteResponsables tienen costos de capital menores consideramos como variable de desempeño social (...) eldistintivo que otorga el Centro Mexicano de Filantropía y por otra parte para calcular elriesgo consideramos el costo de capital a través de la metodología del Capital Asset Price Modelo. Encontramos que las empresas que son socialmente responsables tienen costos de capitalsuperiores que las que no son responsables y que el rendimiento de acciones es superior en lasempresas no responsables, por lo que el diferencial de riesgo vs rendimiento es superior en lasempresas no socialmente responsables. Lo anterior rechaza la hipótesis y contrasta con la realidadempírica de otros estudios.Palabras claves. Distintivo de ESR, CEMEFI, costo de capital, riesgo, rentabilidad de acciones,Bolsa de Valores. The following article shows the current status of the corporate responsibility inMexico and their effect on risk measured by the cost of capital. To do this, we review the maintheories that show that social practices in the United States leads to decrease risk and hence the costof Capital Aras and Crowther, Richardson and Welker and Diamond y Verrechia. In order to contrast that socially responsible companies have lower capital costs we considersocial performance variable the distinction conferred by the Mexican Center for Philanthropy and the cost of capital it estimate on the methodology of the Capital Asset Price model. We find that companies that are socially responsible have capital costs higher than thosethat are not responsible. It rejects the hypothesis and contrasts with the empirical reality of otherstudies.Keywords. CSR distintive, CEMEFI, cost of capital, risk, return in shares, Capital Market Securities. (shrink)

Based on a sample of 54 Islamic indices over the period 2007–2014, we investigate the effect of Shariah board members' educational background on Islamic indices' risk and return characteristics via the screening criteria. Using a capital asset pricing model benchmark analysis, we assess the sensitivity of Islamic indices to their conventional peers in terms of beta and derive a measure of return (Jensen's alpha). First, we observe that the higher the number of members in common among the boards, (...) the higher the risk–return profile of Islamic indices. Second, commonalities among board members lead to standardization of the screening criteria and to similar Islamic indices' performance. Third, we show that different betas across providers depend on the screening criteria, while the economic educational background of board members affects performance in terms of Jensen's alpha. Our study aims at contributing to the governance literature related to board composition and its importance as a possible driver of performance. In addition, given the impressive growth that Islamic finance has experienced during the last decade, this topic is of great interest to the asset management industry. (shrink)

Investment Science, Second Edition, provides thorough and highly accessible mathematical coverage of the fundamental topics of intermediate investments, including fixed-income securities, capital asset pricing theory, derivatives, and innovations in optimal portfolio growth and valuation of multi-period risky investments. Eminent scholar and teacher David G. Luenberger, known for his ability to make complex ideas simple, presents essential ideas of investments and their applications, offering students the most comprehensive treatment of the subject available. New to this edition Three new chapters: (...) Risk Management, Credit Risk, and Data and Statistics Updated content and expanded coverage of many topics, including the capital asset pricing model, projection pricing, the Black-Scholes equation, computational methods, real options, the characterization of volatility, parameter estimation, and portfolio design New exercises reflecting advances in theory and practice provide opportunities to explore a wide range of concepts. (shrink)

This book offers a definitive and wide-ranging overview of developments in behavioral finance over the past ten years. In 1993, the first volume provided the standard reference to this new approach in finance--an approach that, as editor Richard Thaler put it, "entertains the possibility that some of the agents in the economy behave less than fully rationally some of the time." Much has changed since then. Not least, the bursting of the Internet bubble and the subsequent market decline further demonstrated (...) that financial markets often fail to behave as they would if trading were truly dominated by the fully rational investors who populate financial theories. Behavioral finance has made an indelible mark on areas from asset pricing to individual investor behavior to corporate finance, and continues to see exciting empirical and theoretical advances. Advances in Behavioral Finance, Volume II constitutes the essential new resource in the field. It presents twenty recent papers by leading specialists that illustrate the abiding power of behavioral finance--of how specific departures from fully rational decision making by individual market agents can provide explanations of otherwise puzzling market phenomena. As with the first volume, it reaches beyond the world of finance to suggest, powerfully, the importance of pursuing behavioral approaches to other areas of economic life. The contributors are Brad M. Barber, Nicholas Barberis, Shlomo Benartzi, John Y. Campbell, Emil M. Dabora, Daniel Kent, François Degeorge, Kenneth A. Froot, J. B. Heaton, David Hirshleifer, Harrison Hong, Ming Huang, Narasimhan Jegadeesh, Josef Lakonishok, Owen A. Lamont, Roni Michaely, Terrance Odean, Jayendu Patel, Tano Santos, Andrei Shleifer, Robert J. Shiller, Jeremy C. Stein, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, Richard H. Thaler, Sheridan Titman, Robert W. Vishny, Kent L. Womack, and Richard Zeckhauser. (shrink)

Most theories in economics and finance predict what people will do, given what they know about the world around them. But what do people know about their environments? The study of information choice seeks to answer this question, explaining why economic players know what they know--and how the information they have affects collective outcomes. Instead of assuming what people do or don't know, information choice asks what people would choose to know. Then it predicts what, given that information, they would (...) choose to do. In this textbook, Laura Veldkamp introduces graduate students in economics and finance to this important new research. The book illustrates how information choice is used to answer questions in monetary economics, portfolio choice theory, business cycle theory, international finance, asset pricing, and other areas. It shows how to build and test applied theory models with information frictions. And it covers recent work on topics such as rational inattention, information markets, and strategic games with heterogeneous information.Illustrates how information choice is used to answer questions in monetary economics, portfolio choice theory, business cycle theory, international finance, asset pricing, and other areas Teaches how to build and test applied theory models with information frictions Covers recent research on topics such as rational inattention, information markets, and strategic games with heterogeneous information. (shrink)

The place of money capital in the theory of the firm has remained a relatively neglected question in traditions of economic analysis. In this highly integrative work, issues in production, pricing, capital investment and financial theory are brought to new levels of interdependence. Developing a three-part argument, Money Capital in the Theory of the Firm deals successively with the theoretical issues and analytic motivation, the neoclassical tradition and postclassical perspectives. In doing so, it presents a self-contained foundation in the (...) basic structures of microeconomic analysis relating to optimize decision making in the firm and in the accounting concepts and statistical apparatus of probability theory relevant to the neoclassical aspects of the argument. Additionally, the book provides the essential mathematical development of such advanced topics as utility functions defined over stochastic arguments, the equilibrium theory of financial asset prices and yields, the cost of money capital, and investment decision criteria. This book makes an important contribution to the formation of new and analytically richer perspectives in the important area of economics it addresses. It will be of particular interest to those working in economic theory and microeconomics, and their advanced students. (shrink)

The concept of non-arbitrage plays an essential role in finance theory. Under certain regularity conditions, the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing states that, in non-arbitrage markets, prices of financial instruments are martingale processes. In this theoretical framework, the analysis of the statistical distributions of financial assets can assist in understanding how participants behave in the markets, and may or may not engender arbitrage conditions. Assuming an underlying Variance Gamma statistical model, this study aims to test, using the FBST (...) - Full Bayesian Significance Test, if there is a relevant price difference between essentially the same financial asset traded at two distinct locations. Specifically, we investigate and compare the behavior of call options on the BOVESPA Index traded at (a) the Equities Segment and (b) the Derivatives Segment of BM&FBovespa. Our results seem to point out significant statistical differences. To what extent this evidence is actually the expression of perennial arbitrage opportunities is still an open question. (shrink)

What can we learn from “minimal” economic models? I argue that learning from such models is not limited to conceptual explorations—which show how something could be the case—but may extend to explanations of real economic phenomena—which show how something is the case. A model may be minimal qua certain world-linking properties, and yet “not-so-minimal” qua learning, provided it is externally valid. This, in turn, depends on using the right principles for model building and not necessarily “isolating” principles. My argument is (...) buttressed by a case study from computational economics, namely, two agent-based models of asset pricing. (shrink)

Essential Microeconomics is designed to help students deepen their understanding of the core theory of microeconomics. Unlike other texts, this book focuses on the most important ideas and does not attempt to be encyclopedic. Two-thirds of the textbook focuses on price theory. As well as taking a new look at standard equilibrium theory, there is extensive examination of equilibrium under uncertainty, the capital asset pricing model, and arbitrage pricing theory. Choice over time is given extensive coverage and (...) includes a basic introduction to control theory. The final third of the book, on game theory, provides a comprehensive introduction to models with asymmetric information. Topics such as auctions, signaling and mechanism design are made accessible to students who have a basic rather than a deep understanding of mathematics. Examples and diagrams are used to illustrate issues as well as formal derivations. (shrink)

This paper argues that the subsistence of the fundamental theorem of contemporary financial mathematics is the ethical concept ‘reciprocity’. The argument is based on identifying an equivalence between the contemporary, and ostensibly ‘value neutral’, Fundamental Theory of Asset Pricing with theories of mathematical probability that emerged in the seventeenth century in the context of the ethical assessment of commercial contracts in a framework of Aristotelian ethics. This observation, the main claim of the paper, is justified on the basis (...) of results from the Ultimatum Game and is analysed within a framework of Pragmatic philosophy. The analysis leads to the explanatory hypothesis that markets are centres of communicative action with reciprocity as a rule of discourse. The purpose of the paper is to reorientate financial economics to emphasise the objectives of cooperation and social cohesion and to this end, we offer specific policy advice. (shrink)

A new explanation of kurtosis in asset price behavior is proposed involving flare attractors. Such attractors depend on chaotic fundamentals driving subsystems which trigger nonlinearly response functions each with a switching mechanism representing the changing of agents from stabilizing to destabilizing behavior. Heterogeneous agent types are shown by a set of these response functions that are interlinked. With a larger number of agent types system behavior resembles that of many financial markets. Such a model is consistent with newer approaches (...) relying upon evolutionary learning mechanisms with heterogeneous agents as well as models depending on fractal characteristics. (shrink)

Kenneth Silver criticizes our use of the Capital Asset Pricing Model to determine the return on investment that is deserved by shareholders, and suggests shareholder primacy follows from the principal/agent model, rather than a concern for risk. We argue that Silver has misunderstood CAPM and our use of it, and that, under current law, more is required from articles of incorporation or corporate bylaws for the principal/agent model to apply to corporations.

The period of very high foreclosure rates sets the 2007–8 financial meltdown apart from similar banking crises fueled by asset price booms. Why did the 2007–8 meltdown lead to a prolonged foreclosure crisis? Through a theoretical perspective built on Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis, Polanyi’s ideas about adverse consequences of commodity fiction, financialization of homes, and institutional coupling, I argue that commodifying houses as financial assets exposed mortgage loan holders to price fluctuations originating in capital markets and elevated their risk (...) of default. I show how increased exposure to price fluctuations followed from the tight coupling between U.S. housing and capital markets, a coupling that resulted directly from the rising preponderance of securitization in U.S. housing finance. I provide further evidence from countries where housing finance was tightly coupled with capital markets to countries where housing finance did not rely dominantly on capital markets. (shrink)