The paper proposes a financial model suitable for ensuring the economic, financial and social sustainability of this basic protection. We have calculated the estimated cost for the Spanish population in 2010 and have estimated the cost for the following 12 years (three legislatures) under a range of demographic and economic assumptions. The results are then analysed to draw conclusions about the viability and sustainability of this basic social protection floor. A remarkable finding is that it is feasible (...) to obtain greater coverage, but by requiring contributions of the State or other financial resources. (shrink)

In this chapter, one considers finance at its very foundations, namely, at the place where assumptions are being made about the ways to measure the two key ingredients of finance: risk and return. It is well known that returns for a large class of assets display a number of stylized facts that cannot be squared with the traditional views of 1960s financial economics (normality and continuity assumptions, i.e. Brownian representation of market dynamics). Despite the empirical counterevidence, normality and continuity (...) assumptions were part and parcel of financial theory and practice, embedded in all financial practices and beliefs. Our aim is to build on this puzzle for extracting some clues revealing the use of one research strategy in academic community, model tinkering defined as a particular research habit. We choose to focus on one specific moment of the scientific controversies in academic finance: the ‘leptokurtic crisis’ opened by Mandelbrot in 1962. The profoundness of the crisis came from the angle of the Mandelbrot’s attack: not only he emphasized an empirical inadequacy of the Brownian representation, but also he argued for an inadequate grounding of this representation. We give some insights in this crisis and display the model tinkering strategies of the financial academic community in the 1970s and the 1980s. (shrink)

Financial modelling is an essential tool for studying the possibility of financial transactions. This paper argues that financial models are conventional tools widely used in formulating and establishing possibility claims about a prospective investment transaction, from a set of governing possibility assumptions. What is distinctive about financial models is that they articulate how a transaction possibly could occur in a non-actual investment scenario given a limited base of possibility conditions assumed in the model. For this (...) reason, it is argued that the epistemic contribution of financial models is that of enabling the model users to envision exactly how a prospective investment could be achieved in various ways through a detailed understanding of the available transaction mechanisms. Thus, financial models provide information about the possibility of an investment scenario by showing how a specific transaction mechanism could result from a small set of initial possibility conditions assumed in the model. (shrink)

This paper intends to bring Austinian themes into methodological discussion about models. Using Austinian conceptual vocabulary, I argue that models perform actions in and outside of the academic field. This multiplicity of fields induces a variety of felicity conditions and types of performed actions. If for example, an inference from a model is judged according to some epistemological criteria in the scientific field, the representation of the world which the model carries will not be judged by the same (...) criteria outside the scientific field. A model can be considered as a standard in a strict scientific framework, while not being used as part of public policies, or vice versa. However, we focus on the dynamics between different fields. (shrink)

In this article, based on the previous works, a new fractional-order financial model is put up. The chaotic behavior of the fractional-order financial model is suppressed by designing an appropriatePDϑcontroller. By choosing the delay as the bifurcation parameter, we establish the sufficient condition to guarantee the stability and the existence of Hopf bifurcation of fractional-order financial model. Also, the influence of the delay and the fractional order on the stability and the existence of Hopf (...) bifurcation of fractional-order financial model is revealed. An example is given to confirm the effectiveness of the analysis results. The main findings of this article play an important role in maintaining economic stability. (shrink)

Philosophers of science typically focus on the epistemic performance of scientific models when evaluating them. Analysing the effects that models may have on the world has typically been the purview of sociologists of science. We argue that the reactive (or “performative”) effects of models should also figure in model evaluations by philosophers of science. We provide a detailed analysis of how models in financial economics created the impetus for the growing importance of the phenomenon of “passive investing” in (...) financial markets. Considering this case motivates the position that we call contextualism about model evaluation, or _model contextualism_ for short. Model contextualism encompasses standard analyses of the epistemic performance of the model, but also includes their reactive aspects. It entails identifying the _epistemic and contextual import of the model_, the ways in which a model can engender change in the world (which we call the _channels of transmission_), and the _interactions between the epistemic and reactive import of a model_. (shrink)

The description of how individual models in families of models are related to each other is crucial for the general philosophical understanding of model-based scientific practice. We focus on the Capital Asset Pricing Models (CAPM) family, a cornerstone in financial economics, to provide a descriptive analysis of model relations within a family. We introduce the concepts of theoretical and empirical complementarity to characterise model relations. Our complementarity analysis of model relations has two types of payoff. (...) Specifically regarding the CAPM, our analysis reveals why this model family, which has been empirically contested, has yet remained popular and important: the different models that have been added over time have made new empirically and theoretically complementary contributions to the model family. More generally, our analysis reveals the dynamic character of model-based scientific practice. Characterising relations between models as theoretically and/or empirically complementary yields three hitherto underappreciated lessons: (i) actual modelling purposes are not always primarily epistemic, (ii) a model's individual import is relative, not absolute, and (iii) there is an important interplay between theory and data models. Faithfully characterising scientific modelling in this way facilitates subsequent analysis of models' epistemic import. (shrink)

Based on the research of currency crisis pressure index, bank crisis pressure index, and asset bubble crisis pressure index, this paper introduces an external shock pressure index reflecting the impact of global economic changes on economy and synthesizes systemic financial crisis pressure based on the above four pressure indexes; then, all the alternative early warning indicators and the systemic risk pressure index constructed in this paper were tested for Granger causality. We build financial systemic risk pressure indexes, including (...) currency crisis pressure banking crisis pressure index, bubble crisis pressure index, and external shock pressure index to predict financial crises. Finally, four indicators that have a significant impact on the systemic financial crisis pressure index were selected, namely, the stock price index change rate, industrial added value growth rate, domestic and foreign real deposit interest rate differential, and foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP. A dynamic Logit model with lagging binary variables is constructed, and compared with the traditional static Logit line, the actual dynamic fitting effect is better than the static Logit model. The dynamic Logit model is used to predict the early warning status of systemic financial crisis in 2020, and the forecast of various early warning indicators is realized by the ARIMA model. The final prediction results show that the probability of a systemic financial crisis in China in 2020 is extremely low, almost zero. This is in line with the overall improvement in the international economic situation in 2020 and the steady growth of the domestic economy. (shrink)

This empirical paper examines individual-level cognitive factors associated with developing an orientation to sustainable development issues among a population of business practitioners from France. Across two studies, we survey 180 financial managers and 83 finance students, as well as 144 managers from other business disciplines and 117 non-finance business students. We consider ability and motivation variables integrated and adapted into a cognitive elaboration model for sustainable decision making. Specifically, we examine the degree of influence of two factors on (...) the ethical sensitivity to sustainability: the moral maturity of the individual, and the perceived moral intensity of a sustainability issue. Our investigation offers insights into how financial managers perceive the importance of sustainability for corporate strategy. (shrink)

The financial crisis that began in the US real-estate market in 2007 and culminated in a global economic slump showed bluntly how wrong financial risk models can be. This state of affairs has triggered a number of reactions and observations at the level of the specification and use of models and at a more conceptual/fundamental level. This article focuses on the epistemic features of such models – namely the nature, source, conditions of validity, structure and limits of the (...) knowledge that ‘well-specified’ models generate – so as to assess models in a balanced way, giving due weight to the fundamental determinants of their output and warning against overestimation of their possibilities; clarify the conditions under which models can be validly applied to economic and social relationships; render intelligible why the degree of accuracy that successful models would require is intrinsically unattainable; better understand models’ failure as evidenced by the crisis; and comment on the policy steps being undertaken to prevent similar financial crisis in the future. The analysis applies the principal tenets of critical realism to the daily preoccupations of risk management professionals and financial regulators alike. It is not intended as an intervention into critical realism. It draws on the works of Tony Lawson and Roy Bhaskar, and revisits relevant aspects of John Maynard Keynes’s work, connecting dots amongst them and marrying economic and philosophical analysis with day-to-day financial risk management and regulatory issues. Content Type Journal Article Category Article Pages 462-486 DOI 10.1558/jcr.v11i4.462 Authors Mattia L. Rattaggi, UBS/Cambridge Social Ontology Group Journal Journal of Critical Realism Online ISSN 1572-5138 Print ISSN 1476-7430 Journal Volume Volume 11 Journal Issue Volume 11, Number 4 / 2012. (shrink)

As part of a larger research study, we present model language for disclosing financial interests in clinical research to potential research participants, and we describe the empirical basis and theoretical assumptions used in developing the language. The empirical process for creating appropriate disclosure language resulted in a generic disclosure statement for cases in which no risk to participants’ welfare or the scientific integrity of the research is expected, and nine more specific disclosure statements for cases in which some (...) risk is expected. The disclosure statements are not meant to be canonical, but were instead designed to reflect the typical situations in which disclosure of financial interest might be considered by an institutional review board or conflict of interest committee. Individual institutions could modify key phrases to suit their purposes, and others could use the language in future empirical work on informed consent to better refine the options for disclosing financial interests in clinical research. (shrink)

The purpose of the study is to comprehensively present the nature of the partnership between business and non-profit organizations in Russia. The article focuses on unlocking the potential and models of business partnerships and NGOs; identifying problems within the framework of these relations in modern Russia and determining ways to solve them. The scientific novelty consists in substantiating the need to improve strategies for interaction between business and NGOs in conditions of crisis and economic turbulence, as well as in developing (...) recommendations for optimizing models for building partnerships between NGOs and business structures that can be successfully applied in modern conditions. As a result, features and specific mechanisms were identified that ensure effective interaction between NGOs, business and the state at the current stage, recommendations were developed to improve this interaction. (shrink)

In this research, we shed new light on the empirical link between corporate social performance (CSP) and corporate financial performance (CFP) via the application of empirical models and methods new to the CSP–CFP literature. Applying advanced financial models to a uniquely constructed panel dataset, we demonstrate that a significant overall CSP–CFP relationship exists and that this relationship is, in part, conditioned on firms’ industry-specific context. To accommodate the estimation of time-invariant industry and industry-interaction effects, we estimate linear mixed (...) models in our test of the CSP–CFP relationship. Our results show both a significant overall CSP effect as well as significant industry effects between CSP and CFP. In conflict with expectations, the unweighted average effect of CSP on CFP is negative. Our industry analysis, however, shows that in over 17% of the industries in our sample, the effect of CSP on CFP for socially responsible firms is positive. We also examine the multidimensional nature of the CSP construct in an industry context by exploring the CSP dimension–industry nexus and identify dimensions of social performance that are associated with either better or worse financial performance. Our results confirm the existence of disparate CSP dimension–industry effects on CFP, thus our results provide important and actionable information to decision makers considering whether and how to commit corporate resources to social performance. (shrink)

Is there a unique way to de-idealize models? If not, how might the possible ways of reducing the distortion between models and reality differ from each other? Based on an empirical case study conducted in financial markets, this paper discusses how a popular valuation model (the Discounted Cash Flow model) idealizes reality and how the market participants de-idealize it in concrete market situations. In contrast to Cartwright's view that economic models are generally over-constrained, this paper suggests that (...) valuation models are under-constrained. This serves as the reason why the relaxation of simplifying assumptions and concretization do not work as methods of de-idealization. The paper finds that financial market participants de-idealize models using commentary that takes the form of judgment. As a conclusion, a hypothesis is formulated that proposes that the more underdetermined the model is the bigger role narrative and other pragmatic elements play in the process of model application. (shrink)

Financial theory is in trouble. Market crashes and high volatility are only too familiar to everyone, although the standard theories predict that they hardly ever occur. According to the well-known and (partly due to its simplicity) still widely used random-walk model, the probabilities for price changes of, say, stocks should result in a Gaussian distribution. However, experience tells us that large changes occur far more often than ‘allowed’ by a Gaussian distribution. New models are needed which lead to (...) realistic probability distributions. ‘Econophysicists’ are particularly active in this field by constructing microscopic models of financial markets on the basis of various ideas and tools from physics. But in which sense do these models contribute scientific explanations? In this paper I will investigate what and how one exemplary econophysics model explains. (shrink)

Although a number of microfinance initiatives have improved financial inclusion in various regions of developing countries, the transferability of their foundations from one context to another is still a challenge. This study proposes an innovative process-based model targeting the initial stages of the transfer process that links three interconnected categories: local contextual conditions, transferring practices, and initial developmental consequences. The results were produced through a longitudinal study of the implementation of three community development banks on the periphery of (...) Sao Paulo based on a highly successful Brazilian model known as Banco Palmas. In addition to the process-based model, our findings contribute to the microfinance and bottom of the pyramid literatures, showing a cross-fertilization that has been insufficiently explored. (shrink)

In this paper, we analyse the simplest possible three-dimensional model of endogenous growth to account for the relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth. In our setting, households maximize an interim utility function and firms maximize profit. Households can save money only through banks which offer firms investment loans. We show that under very general assumptions, investments realized by firms depend not only on savings accumulated by banks but also on financial intermediation technology ϕ(θ). Using mathematical methods (...) of dynamical systems, we found stationary states of the system and study their stability. (shrink)

The construction of a financial risk prediction model has become the need of the hour due to long-term and short-term violations in the financial market. To reduce the default risk of peer-to-peer companies and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the P2P industry, this article uses a model based on the LightGBM algorithm to analyze a large number of sample data from Renrendai, which is a representative platform of the P2P industry. This article explores the (...) base LightGBM model along with the integration of linear blending to build an optimal default risk identification model. The proposed approach is applicable for a large number of multi-dimensional data samples. The results show that the prediction accuracy rate of the LightGBM algorithm model on the test set reaches 80.25%, which can accurately identify more than 80% of users, and the model has the best prediction performance in terms of different performance evaluation indicators. The integration of LightGBM and the linear blending approach yield a precision value of 91.36%, a recall of 75.90%, and an accuracy of 84.36%. The established LightGBM algorithm can efficiently identify the default of the loan business on the P2P platform compared to the traditional machine learning models, such as logistic regression and support vector machine. For a large number of multi-dimensional data samples, the LightGBM algorithm can effectively judge the default risk of users on P2P platforms. (shrink)

The paper presents the results of the study of the impact and effects of communication models of public relations and organization–public relationships on company credibility and financial performance in companies in Serbia. The data were obtained by interviewing 415 respondents (PR managers, PR practitioners and marketing experts) working in 93 companies in Serbia. The dimensions of the organization–public relationships have stronger positive influences and effects on company credibility and financial performance than the dimensions of communication models of public (...) relations. The influence of the dimensions of trust, commitment, satisfaction and communal relationship is particularly emphasized. Of the four communication models, the strongest positive impact on company credibility and financial performance is achieved by the two-way symmetrical dimension, and then the two-way asymmetrical dimension. The dimensions of communication models of public relations and organization–public relationships have the greatest influence and predictive effect on the dimension of trustworthiness, followed by the dimension of expertise, and finally the dimension of financial performance. Therefore, a greater impact exists on company credibility than on financial performance. (shrink)

This paper proposes two formal models for understanding real-life dialogues, aimed at capturing argumentative structures performatively enacted during conversations. In the course of the investigation, two types of discourse with a high degree of well-structured argumentation were chosen: moral debate and financial communication. The research project found itself confronted by a need to analyse, structure and formally describe large volumes of textual data, where this called for the application of computational tools. It is expected that the results of the (...) proposed research will make a contribution to formal systems modelling and the evaluation of communication from the point of view of argument soundness. (shrink)

The uses of statistical distributions for modeling real phenomena of nature have received considerable attention in the literature. The recent studies have pointed out the potential of statistical distributions in modeling data in applied sciences, particularly in financial sciences. Among them, the two-parameter Lomax distribution is one of the prominent models that can be used quite effectively for modeling data in management sciences, banking, finance, and actuarial sciences, among others. In the present article, we introduce a new three-parameter extension (...) of the Lomax distribution via using a class of claim distributions. The new model may be called the Lomax-Claim distribution. The parameters of the Lomax-Claim model are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The behaviors of the maximum likelihood estimators are examined by conducting a brief Monte Carlo study. The potentiality and applicability of the Lomax claim model are illustrated by analyzing a dataset taken from financial sciences representing the vehicle insurance loss data. For this dataset, the proposed model is compared with the Lomax, power Lomax, transmuted Lomax, and exponentiated Lomax distributions. To show the best fit of the competing distributions, we consider certain analytical tools such as the Anderson–Darling test statistic, Cramer–Von Mises test statistic, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test statistic. Based on these analytical measures, we observed that the new model outperforms the competitive models. Furthermore, a bivariate extension of the proposed model called the Farlie–Gumble–Morgenstern bivariate Lomax-Claim distribution is also introduced, and different shapes for the density function are plotted. An application of the bivariate model to GDP and export of goods and services is provided. (shrink)

In this paper, a new FEPA portfolio forecasting model is based on the EMD decomposition method. The model is based on the special empirical modal decomposition of financial time series, principal component analysis, and artificial neural network to model and forecast for nonlinear, nonstationary, multiscale complex financial time series to predict stock market indices and foreign exchange rates and empirically investigate this hot area in financial market research. The combined forecasting model proposed in (...) this paper is based on the idea of decomposition-reconstruction synthesis, which effectively improves the model’s prediction of internal financial time series. In this paper, we select the CSI 300 Index and foreign exchange rate as the empirical market and data and establish seven forecasting models to make predictions about the short-term running trend of the closing price. The interval EMD decomposition algorithm is introduced in this paper, considering both high and low prices to be contained in the input and output. By analyzing the closing price, high and low prices of the stock index at the same time, the volatility of this interval time series of the index and its trend can be better captured. (shrink)

This paper proposes a new financial market model based on the analysis of the minority game model. The agent in this model forms a network through information sharing, and the agent uses the minority game model to realize the evolution of the system. To better describe the financial market, we also adopt a prior connection strategy for the model. The network formed by the agent has the characteristics of a scale-free network, and as (...) the initial network connection probability increases, the growth rate of the corresponding agent’s average connection degree increases and then decreases after reaching the peak. (shrink)

This document discusses the status of research on detection and prevention of financial fraud undertaken as part of the IST European Commission funded FF POIROT (Financial Fraud Prevention Oriented Information Resources Using Ontology Technology) project. A first task has been the specification of the user requirements that define the functionality of the financial fraud ontology to be designed by the FF POIROT partners. It is claimed here that modeling fraudulent activity involves a mixture of law and facts (...) as well as inferences about facts present, facts presumed or facts missing. The purpose of this paper is to explain this abstract model and to specify the set of user requirements. (shrink)

Financial wellbeing is an emerging variable in business psychology that is expected to measure overall financial status and future financial trajectories. Financial intelligence and wellbeing have been key determining factors for the financial performance of entrepreneurs. The present study aimed to examine the crucial financial determinants and social capital factors for the entrepreneurial intentions and their financial performances among the 326 entrepreneurs in China. The study's findings showed that the key financial indicators (...) and social capital are significantly related to entrepreneurial intentions, which considerably predict the entrepreneurial financial performance. The mediating relationships also reported that entrepreneurial intentions and financial intelligence significantly mediate the relationship among social capital, financial wellbeing, and entrepreneurial financial performance. The present study has highlighted the implications for potential entrepreneurs for improving their financial performance through sustainable social capital, financial wellbeing, and financial intelligence. This study will also help the strategists in screening the individuals registering as entrepreneurs based on their financial intelligence quotient. The present study enriches the literature by offering an integrated model on financial wellbeing and entrepreneurial financial performance. (shrink)

Public companies in the US stock market must annually report their activities and financial performances to the SEC by filing the so-called 10-K form. Recent studies have demonstrated that changes in the textual content of the corporate annual filing can convey strong signals of companies’ future returns. In this study, we combine natural language processing techniques and network science to introduce a novel 10-K-based network, named Lazy Network, that leverages year-on-year changes in companies’ 10-Ks detected using a neural network (...) embedding model. The Lazy Network aims to capture textual changes derived from financial or economic changes on the equity market. Leveraging the Lazy Network, we present a novel investment strategy that attempts to select the least disrupted and stable companies by capturing the peripheries of the Lazy Network. We show that this strategy earns statistically significant risk-adjusted excess returns. Specifically, the proposed portfolios yield up to 95 basis points in monthly five-factor alphas, outperforming similar strategies in the literature. (shrink)

The rapid, recent emergence of new medical knowledge models has engendered a dizzying number of new medical initiatives, programs and approaches. Fields such as evidence-based medicine and translational medicine all promise a renewed relationship between knowledge and medicine. The question for philosophy and other fields has been whether these new models actually achieve their promises to bring about better kinds of medical knowledge—a question that compels scholars to analyze each model’s epistemic claims. Yet, these analyses may miss critical components (...) that explain how these models actually work and function. Using the case of translational medicine, this paper suggests that analyses which treat these models as a primarily epistemic interventions miss the way that new approaches are increasingly shaped by specific financial and commercial agendas. Ultimately, social epistemological analyses that are attentive to market forces are required to make sense of emerging bioscientific research models, which are increasingly tethered to or a manifestation of increasingly financialized models of science research and innovation. (shrink)

Market competition is intensifying. The necessity and path of adopting the diversified management model in the media industry are explored to delve into the influence of the media diversification model and entrepreneurship on enterprise financial performance. Besides, the relevant theories such as the media diversification model and entrepreneurial spirit are expounded. Furthermore, Time Publishing & Media is taken as the representative of the media diversification model. Finally, the influence of entrepreneurship on financial performance is (...) discussed regarding entrepreneurship in the Yangtze River Delta as the research object. The profitability, solvency, and operation ability of Time Publishing & Media are analyzed. It is found that there are problems in the profitability and operation ability of Time Publishing & Media. The solvency is good, and the risk of debt repayment is low. As a result, a diversified management model may not have a positive impact on enterprise performance. In addition, the entrepreneurial spirit of the Yangtze River Delta is studied, and the results reveal that the F values from 2017 to 2019 are about 66.24, 10.78, and 60.39, respectively, with a significance of 0.00. It implies that the stronger the entrepreneur’s ability to take risks, the better the financial performance of the enterprise, but the risk should be appropriate. Therefore, the research on the influence of the media diversification model and entrepreneurship on the financial performance of enterprises in the environment of sustainable development has guided significance for enterprises to improve their business performance and market competitiveness. (shrink)

A person’s financial well-being is the complete contentment gained from one’s present financial condition. This has a powerful impact on the entire achievement of an employee’s “well-being.” Researchers, financial analysts, financial planners, educationists, and economists have explored the “enablers” to improve employees’ living standards by investigating the possible “FWB” resources for decades. There is no literature available to show the connection between social capital theory, social exchange theory, social cognitive theory, financial literacy and FWB, and (...) employees’ financial knowledge sharing a moderator to expand the complete FWB. (shrink)

The relationship between firm financial performance and sustainability reporting (SR) has been extensively researched previously, but with inconsistent results. By incorporating the coercive isomorphism of the institutional theory, this study examines if the relationship is moderated by the ownership of institutional investors. Using data from a sample of 270 Malaysian public listed firms, the study tested two ordinary least square (OLS) regression models. The results show that firm performance and institutional ownership have a positive link to SR. Further examination (...) however discloses a negative moderation of institutional ownership on the relationship between firm performance and SR, thus fail to support the indication that institutional investors coerce the investee firms to utilise their firm performance for sustainability activities. This study adds to SR-related literature by providing reliable and objective findings and directions for future studies in this context. (shrink)

Financing guarantee is an important means and key link to solve the financing difficulties of small- and medium-size enterprises. However, while financial guarantees alleviate the financing difficulties of SMEs, the complex guarantee relationships also constitute a new channel for credit risk contagion in the financial guarantee network. In this paper, we construct a model of credit risk contagion process of guarantee network based on SEIR and analyse the equilibrium point and stability of the model. Then, we (...) find the threshold value of risk contagion and further simulate the SEIR model dynamically to analyse the influence of each parameter of the model. The results show that the risk of the financing guarantee network begins to be widely contagious only when risk contagion threshold is greater than 1, and the conversion rate of exposed enterprises, removal rate of infected enterprises, nodal enterprises degree, and risk contagion rate have significant effects on the changes of individual density of susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered enterprises. Combining the above findings, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to propose relevant countermeasures for credit risk control of financial guarantee network. (shrink)

Financial development is often considered one of the main drivers promoting household consumption. As a form of financial development, whether digital financial inclusion can promote household consumption has been a concern for researchers and policymakers. Considering geographical connectivity characteristics, we examine the effects of digital financial inclusion on household consumption by applying spatial econometric models and using data from 31 provinces in China from 2013 to 2018. The impact of digital financial inclusion is further disaggregated (...) into direct, indirect, and total impacts. The results show that if digital financial inclusion is improved by 1%, household consumption will correspondingly increase by 0.2207%. The spatial spillover effect on neighboring areas is negative: a 1% increase in the level of digital financial inclusion of nearby provinces leads to a 0.1289% decrease in household consumption in the local province. For policymakers, it is necessary to balance the development of digital financial inclusion and view different areas as a whole when making policies to promote consumption. Further analysis based on subsamples finds that the effect of digital financial inclusion on household consumption is more considerable for rural households than for urban households. (shrink)

Large changes of financial market prices without exogenous causes deviate significantly from the Gaussian behavior of random variables. This indicates that financial markets should be treated as complex systems, for which nonlinear interactions of its subunits/agents are crucial. I focus on how the complex systems perspective impacts the notion of explanations in economics. The mechanistic model seems to fit the bill, but problems surface on closer scrutiny. One characteristic of complex systems is that their behavior is surprisingly (...) independent from microscopic details. Thus, mechanistic explanations in the microreductionist manner seem unavailable. Despite these conflicts, I defend a modified structural mechanistic approach. (shrink)

Using the presence of at least one client with net-income-increasing misstatement as a signal of low audit quality for an audit firm, this study examines the existence of the contagion effect of low audit quality and further investigates whether financial distress and investment opportunity as two firm-specific financial characteristics moderate the contagion effect of low audit quality. Using a sample of 7887 firm-year observations from the Chinese stock market over the period of 2007–2012, our study documents strong and (...) consistent evidence to show that other clients audited by low-quality audit firms have significantly higher discretionary accruals ; financial distress reinforces the contagion effect of low audit quality; investment opportunity strengthens the contagion effect of low audit quality; the contagion effect of low audit quality persists over subsequent years for clients, and both financial distress and investment opportunity reinforce the contagion effect of misstatement to future misstatement. Above results are robust to a variety of sensitivity tests and are still valid after using the change model to control for the potential endogeneity. This study extends the previous literature on the contagion effect of low audit quality across audit firms. (shrink)

Historically, there has been little agreement between advocates of radical financial reform and socialist theoreticians. However, in the new circumstances of the twenty-first century, a productive synthesis of these two traditions might be possible. Drawing on the franchise model of credit creation elaborated by Robert C. Hockett and the dysfunctions created by the extreme concentration of private financial institutions, this article outlines a reform agenda that would both democratize finance and facilitate the flow of funds into valuable (...) forms of investment that are currently starved for resources. If the new institutions envisioned in this proposal were able to take root and expand, they could ultimately facilitate a transition to socialism, defined as the subordination of the market to democratic politics. (shrink)

ABSTRACT Economists not only failed to anticipate the financial crisis; they may have contributed to it—with risk and derivatives models that, through spurious precision and untested theoretical assumptions, encouraged policy makers and market participants to see more stability and risk sharing than was actually present. Moreover, once the crisis occurred, it was met with incomprehension by most economists because of models that, on the one hand, downplay the possibility that economic actors may exhibit highly interactive behavior; and, on the (...) other, assume that any homogeneity will involve economic actors sharing the economist’s own putatively correct model of the economy, so that error can stem only from an exogenous shock. The financial crisis presents both an ethical and an intellectual challenge to economics, and an opportunity to reform its study by grounding it more solidly in reality. (shrink)

This paper empirically examines the financial performance of a UK unit trust that was initially “conventional” and later adopted socially responsible investment (SRI) principles (ethical investment principles). Comparison is made with three similar conventional funds whose investment objectives remained unchanged. Analysis techniques employed in previous studies find similar results: mean risk-adjusted performance is unchanged by the switch to SRI, with no evidence of over-or under-performance relative to the benchmark market index by any of the four funds. More interestingly, changes (...) in variability of returns over time are also modelled using generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models, not previously applied to SRI funds so far as is known. Results show a temporary increase in variability of returns, followed by a return to previous levels after around 4 years. Evidence shows the increased variability to be associated with the adoption of SRI rather than with a change in fund management. Possible explanations for the subsequent reduction in variability include the spread of corporate social responsibility activities by firms and learning by fund managers. In addition to reporting on a previously unobserved phenomenon, this paper raises questions for further research. (shrink)

Economists not only failed to anticipate the financial crisis; they may have contributed to it—with risk and derivatives models that, through spurious precision and untested theoretical assumptions, encouraged policy makers and market participants to see more stability and risk sharing than was actually present. Moreover, once the crisis occurred, it was met with incomprehension by most economists because of models that, on the one hand, downplay the possibility that economic actors may exhibit highly interactive behavior; and, on the other, (...) assume that any homogeneity will involve economic actors sharing the economist’s own putatively correct model of the economy, so that error can stem only from an exogenous shock. The financial crisis presents both an ethical and an intellectual challenge to economics, and an opportunity to reform its study by grounding it more solidly in reality. (shrink)

Autonomy is conceptualized as the need for agency, self-actualization and independence. Nowadays, financial independence and academic achievement for young populations may be considered as key aspects in the transition to adulthood in response to some contextual demands of different cultural environments. By means of a multi-level model, the present study aims to determine the influence and contribution of factors at individual-level (e.g. sex, age, socioeconomic status, family financial support, awarded scholarships, personal finance, student loans) and school-level (e.g. (...) programme quality, online programs, face to face programs) on the academic achievement of young higher education Colombian students. Data come from the scores of the national standardized academic achievement test administered in 2018 in Colombia. The sample included 234,386 students enrolled in 3,389 higher education institutions in Colombia. After controlling the effects of program quality, and the student's previous academic abilities and socio-economic conditions, results showed that students with scholarships had higher scores than financially-dependent students (those who had students loans) and financially-independent students (those who self-funded their studies or who worked during the week) who had low-scores in the national standardized academic achievement test. (shrink)