In the existing Reinforcement Learning, it is difficult and time consuming to find appropriate the meta-parameters such as learning rate, eligibility traces and temperature for exploration, in particular on a complicated and large-scale problem, the delayed reward often occurs and causes a difficulty in solving the problem. In this paper, we propose a novel method introducing a temperature distribution for reinforcement learning. In addition to the acquirement of policy based on profit sharing, (...) the temperature is given to each state and is trained by hill-climbing method using likelihood function based on success and failure of the task. The proposed method can reduce the parameter setting according to the given problems. We showed the performance on the grid world problem and the control of Acrobot. (shrink)

Profit Sharing is one of the reinforcement learning methods. An agent, as a learner, selects an action with a state-action value and receives rewards when it reaches a goal state. Then it distributes receiving rewards to state-action values. This paper discusses how to set the initial value of a state-action value. A distribution function ƒ( x ) is called as the reinforcement function. On Profit Sharing, an agent learns a policy by distributing rewards with (...) the reinforcement function. On Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), the reinforcement function ƒ( x ) = 1/ L x is useful, and on Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), ƒ( x ) = 1/ L w is useful, where L is the sufficient number of rules at each state, and W is the length of an episode. If episodes are always long, the value of the reinforcement function is little. So the differences of rule values become little, and the agent learns little by using the roulette selection as an action selection. This problem is called as Learning Speed Problem. If the value of the reinforcement function for an action is very higher than its state-action value, an agent will not select other action. There is a problem when its action is not a optimal action. This problem is called as Past Experiences Problem. This paper shows that both Learning Speed Problem and Past Experiences Problem are caused by the bad setting between the initial values of a state-action values and the function values of a reinforcement function. We propose how to set the initial values of a state-action values at each state. The experiment shows that an agent can learn correctly even if the length of episode is large. And shows the effectiveness on both MDPs and POMDPs. Our proposed method focuses on the initialization of state-action values and does not limit reinforcement functions. So it can apply to any reinforcement function. (shrink)

The large scale, time varying, and diversification of physically coupled networked infrastructures such as power grid and transportation system lead to the complexity of their controller design, implementation, and expansion. For tackling these challenges, we suggest an online distributed reinforcement learning control algorithm with the one-layer neural network for each subsystem or called agents to adapt the variation of the networked infrastructures. Each controller includes a critic network and action network for approximating strategy utility function and desired control law, (...) respectively. For avoiding a large number of trials and improving the stability, the training of action network introduces supervised learning mechanisms into reduction of long-term cost. The stability of the control system with learning algorithm is analyzed; the upper bound of the tracking error and neural network weights are also estimated. The effectiveness of our proposed controller is illustrated in the simulation; the results indicate the stability under communication delay and disturbances as well. (shrink)

In this paper, we consider profit sharing that is one of the reinforcement learning methods. An agent learns a candidate solution of a problem from the reward that is received from the environment if and only if it reaches the destination state. A function that distributes the received reward to each action of the candidate solution is called the reinforcement function. On this learning system, the agent can reinforce the set of selected actions when it gets (...) the reward. And the agent should not reinforce the detour actions. First, we will propose a new constraint equation about reinforcement functions to distribute the reinforcement values on the non-detour actions. If we use the reinforcement function to satisfy the constraint equation, the agent can select the non-detour actions directing to the destination state. Next, it is shown that the reinforcement function can be constant after learning process to suppress the selection of detour actions. Lastly, in computer simulations for maze problems, we show that the learning performance of agents does not depend on the size of environment. (shrink)

With small to modest sample sizes and complex models, maximum likelihood estimation of confirmatory factor analysis models can show serious estimation problems such as non-convergence or parameter estimates outside the admissible parameter space. In this article, we distinguish different Bayesian estimators that can be used to stabilize the parameter estimates of a CFA: the mode of the joint posterior distribution that is obtained from penalized maximum likelihood estimation, and the mean, median, or mode (...) of the marginal posterior distribution that are calculated by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. In two simulation studies, we evaluated the performance of the Bayesian estimators from a frequentist point of view. The results show that the EAP produced more accurate estimates of the latent correlation in many conditions and outperformed the other Bayesian estimators in terms of root mean squared error. We also argue that it is often advantageous to choose a parameterization in which the main parameters of interest are bounded, and we suggest the four-parameter beta distribution as a prior distribution for loadings and correlations. Using simulated data, we show that selecting weakly informative four-parameter beta priors can further stabilize parameter estimates, even in cases when the priors were mildly misspecified. Finally, we derive recommendations and propose directions for further research. (shrink)

Autonomous underwater vehicles are widely used to accomplish various missions in the complex marine environment; the design of a control system for AUVs is particularly difficult due to the high nonlinearity, variations in hydrodynamic coefficients, and external force from ocean currents. In this paper, we propose a controller based on deep reinforcement learning in a simulation environment for studying the control performance of the vectored thruster AUV. RL is an important method of artificial intelligence that can learn behavior through (...) trial-and-error interactions with the environment, so it does not need to provide an accurate AUV control model that is very hard to establish. The proposed RL algorithm only uses the information that can be measured by sensors inside the AUVs as the input parameters, and the outputs of the designed controller are the continuous control actions, which are the commands that are set to the vectored thruster. Moreover, a reward function is developed for deep RL controller considering different factors which actually affect the control accuracy of AUV navigation control. To confirm the algorithm’s effectiveness, a series of simulations are carried out in the designed simulation environment, which is a method to save time and improve efficiency. Simulation results prove the feasibility of the deep RL algorithm applied to the control system for AUV. Furthermore, our work also provides an optional method for robot control problems to deal with improving technology requirements and complicated application environments. (shrink)

To apply reinforcement learning to difficult classes such as real-environment learning, we need to use a method robust to perceptual aliasing problem. The exploitation-oriented methods such as Profit Sharing can deal with the perceptual aliasing problem to a certain extent. However, when the agent needs to select different actions at the same sensory input, the learning efficiency worsens. To overcome the problem, several state partition methods using history information of state-action pairs are proposed. These methods try to (...) convert a POMDP environment into an MDP environment, and thus they are sometimes very useful. However, their computation cost is very high especially in large state spaces. In contrast, memory-less approaches try to escape from the aliased states by outputting actions stochastically. However, these methods output actions stochastically even in unaliased states, and thus the learning efficiency is bad. If we desire to guarantee the rationality in POMDPs, it is efficient to output actions stochastically only in the aliased states and to output one action deterministically in the other unaliased states. Hence, to discriminate between aliased states and unaliased states, the utilization of χ² -goodness-of-fit test is proposed by Miyazaki et al. They point out that, in aliased states, the distributions of the state transitions by random search and a particular policy are different. This difference doesn't occur owing to non-deterministic actions. Hence, if the agent can collect enough samples to implement the test, the agent can distinguish between aliased states and unaliased states well. However, such a test needs a large amount of data, and it's a problem how the agent collects samples without worsening learning efficiency. If the agent uses random search in the course of learning, the learning efficiency worsens especially in unaliased states. Therefore, in this research, we propose a new method called Extended On-line Profit Sharing with Judgement (EOPSwJ) to detect important incomplete perception, which doesn't need large computation cost and numerous samples. We use two criterions for detecting important incomplete perceptions to attain a task. One is the rate of transitions to each state, and the other is the deterministic rate of actions. We confirm the availability of EOPSwJ using two simulations. (shrink)

Meditation comprises a series of practices mainly developed in eastern cultures aiming at controlling emotions and enhancing attentional processes. Several authors proposed to divide meditation techniques in focused attention and open monitoring techniques. Previous studies have reported differences in brain networks underlying FA and OM. On the other hand common activations across different meditative practices have been reported. Despite differences between forms of meditation and their underlying cognitive processes, we propose that all meditative techniques could share a central process that (...) would be supported by a core network for meditation since their general common goal is to induce relaxation, regulating attention and developing an attitude of detachment from one’s own thoughts. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a quantitative meta-analysis based on activation likelihood estimation of 10 neuroimaging studies on different meditative techniques to evidence the core cortical network subserving meditation. We showed activation of basal ganglia , limbic system and medial prefrontal cortex . We discuss the functional role of these structures in meditation and we tentatively propose a neurocognitive model of meditation that could guide future research. (shrink)

The generation of the pitch control signal in a wind turbine (WT) is not straightforward due to the nonlinear dynamics of the system and the coupling of its internal variables; in addition, they are subjected to the uncertainty that comes from the random nature of the wind. Fuzzy logic has proved useful in applications with changing system parameters or where uncertainty is relevant as in this one, but the tuning of the fuzzy logic controller (FLC) parameters is neither straightforward nor (...) an easy task. On the other hand, reinforcement learning (RL) allows systems to automatically learn, and this capability can be exploited to tune the FLC. In this work, a WT pitch control architecture that uses RL to tune the membership functions and scale the output of a fuzzy controller is proposed. The RL strategy calculates the fuzzy controller gains in order to reduce the output power error of the WT according to the wind speed. Different reward mechanisms based on the output power error have been considered. Simulation results with different wind profiles show that this architecture performs better (123.7 W) in terms of power errors than an FLC without RL (133.2 W) or a simpler PID (208.8 W). Even more, it provides a smooth response and outperforms other hybrid controllers such as RL-PID and radial basis function neural network control. (shrink)

Reinforcement Learning is a promising technique for creating agents that can be applied to real world problems. The most important features of RL are trial-and-error search and delayed reward. Thus, agents randomly act in the early learning stage. However, such random actions are impractical for real world problems. This paper presents a novel model of RL agents. A feature of our learning agent model is to integrate the Analytic Hierarchy Process into the standard RL agent model, which consists (...) of three modules: state recognition, learning, and action selecting modules. In our model, the AHP module is designed with {\\it primary knowledge} that humans intrinsically have in a process until a goal state is attained. This integration aims at increasing promising actions instead of completely random actions in the standard RL algorithms. Profit Sharing is adopted as a RL method for our model, since PS is known to be useful even in multi-agent environments. To evaluate our approach in a multi-agent environment, we test a PS RL method with our agent model on a pursuit problem in a grid world. Computational results show that our approach outperforms the standard PS in terms of learning speed in the earlier stages of learning. We also show that the learning performance of our approach is superior at least competitive to that of the standard one in the final stages of learning. (shrink)

The relationship between the neurobiology of speech and music has been investigated for more than a century. There remains no widespread agreement regarding how (or to what extent) music perception utilizes the neural circuitry that is engaged in speech processing, particularly at the cortical level. Prominent models such as Patel’s Shared Syntactic Integration Resource Hypothesis (SSIRH) and Koelsch’s neurocognitive model of music perception suggest a high degree of overlap, particularly in the frontal lobe, but also perhaps more distinct representations in (...) the temporal lobe with hemispheric asymmetries. The present meta-analysis study used activation likelihood estimate analyses to identify the brain regions consistently activated for music as compared to speech across the functional neuroimaging (fMRI and PET) literature. Eighty music and 91 speech neuroimaging studies of healthy adult control subjects were analyzed. Peak activations reported in the music and speech studies were divided into four paradigm categories: passive listening, discrimination tasks, error/anomaly detection tasks and memory-related tasks. We then compared activation likelihood estimates within each category for music versus speech, and each music condition with passive listening. We found that listening to music and to speech preferentially activate distinct temporo-parietal bilateral cortical networks. We also found music and speech to have shared resources in the left pars opercularis but speech-specific resources in the left pars triangularis. The extent to which music recruited speech-activated frontal resources was modulated by task. While there are certainly limitations to meta-analysis techniques particularly regarding sensitivity, this work suggests that the extent of shared resources between speech and music may be task-dependent and highlights the need to consider how task effects may be affecting conclusions regarding the neurobiology of speech and music. (shrink)

This paper shows how to define probability distributions over linguistically realistic syntactic structures in a way that permits us to define language learning and language comprehension as statistical problems. We demonstrate our approach using lexical‐functional grammar (LFG), but our approach generalizes to virtually any linguistic theory. Our probabilistic models are maximum entropy models. In this paper we concentrate on statistical inference procedures for learning the parameters that define these probability distributions. We point out some of the practical problems that (...) make straightforward ways of estimating these distributions infeasible, and develop a “pseudo‐likelihood” estimation procedure that overcomes some of these problems. This method raises interesting questions concerning the nature of the data available to a language learner and the modularity of language learning and processing. (shrink)

A new three-parameter extension of the generalized-exponential distribution, which has various hazard rates that can be increasing, decreasing, bathtub, or inverted tub, known as the Marshall-Olkin generalized-exponential distribution has been considered. So, this article addresses the problem of estimating the unknown parameters and survival characteristics of the three-parameter MOGE lifetime distribution when the sample is obtained from progressive type-II censoring via maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Making use of the s-normality of classical estimators, two types of (...) approximate confidence intervals are constructed via the observed Fisher information matrix. Using gamma conjugate priors, the Bayes estimators against the squared-error and linear-exponential loss functions are derived. As expected, the Bayes estimates are not explicitly expressed, thus the Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques are implemented to approximate the Bayes point estimates and to construct the associated highest posterior density credible intervals. The performance of proposed estimators is evaluated via some numerical comparisons and some specific recommendations are also made. We further discuss the issue of determining the optimum progressive censoring plan among different competing censoring plans using three optimality criteria. Finally, two real-life datasets are analyzed to demonstrate how the proposed methods can be used in real-life scenarios. (shrink)

The notion that an independent central bank reduces a country’s inflation is a controversial hypothesis. To date, it has not been possible to satisfactorily answer this question because the complex macroeconomic structure that gives rise to the data has not been adequately incorporated into statistical analyses. We develop a causal model that summarizes the economic process of inflation. Based on this causal model and recent data, we discuss and identify the assumptions under which the effect of central bank independence on (...) inflation can be identified and estimated. Given these and alternative assumptions, we estimate this effect using modern doubly robust effect estimators, i.e., longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimators. The estimation procedure incorporates machine learning algorithms and is tailored to address the challenges associated with complex longitudinal macroeconomic data. We do not find strong support for the hypothesis that having an independent central bank for a long period of time necessarily lowers inflation. Simulation studies evaluate the sensitivity of the proposed methods in complex settings when certain assumptions are violated and highlight the importance of working with appropriate learning algorithms for estimation. (shrink)

Design education requires a specific setting that facilitates teaching/learning activities including lecturing, demonstrating, and practicing. The design-studio is the place of design teaching/learning activities and where students/students and students/instructor interaction occur. Proper interior design improves not only the function of such learning environment but also the confidence of its users involved in the teaching/learning process. This study finds impetus in the lack of research data relative to the design of the design-studio classroom, most crucial space in design and architectural education. (...) The purpose of the study is to examine the design-studio classroom environment and to determine, by the perception of its users, to which level this specific environment assures users’ needs and objectives. A survey was developed and distributed to a purposive sample of design and architecture educators. Ninety four responds were collected. The results of the study support the stability of earlier findings that the physical environment has a direct impact on the satisfaction of the space users. The findings suggest that lighting, noise, glare, air quality, temperature, seats comfort and possibilities of arrangement are all essential environmental features in the achievement of an appropriate pedagogic environment. Likewise, it was found that designated workstations are important part of the teaching/learning process of design. It also emerges from this study that lighting is the most important feature. (shrink)

This paper is concerned with the estimation of the Weibull generalized exponential distribution parameters based on the adaptive Type-II progressive censored sample. Maximum likelihood estimation, maximum product spacing, and Bayesian estimation based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have been determined to find the best estimation method. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to compare the three methods of estimation based on the ATIIP-censored sample, and also, we made a bootstrap confidence interval estimation. We will analyze data (...) related to the distribution about single carbon fiber and electrical data as real data cases to show how the schemes work in practice. (shrink)

Reinforcement learning approaches to cognitive modeling represent task acquisition as learning to choose the sequence of steps that accomplishes the task while maximizing a reward. However, an apparently unrecognized problem for modelers is choosing when, what, and how much to reward; that is, when (the moment: end of trial, subtask, or some other interval of task performance), what (the objective function: e.g., performance time or performance accuracy), and how much (the magnitude: with binary, categorical, or continuous values). In this (...) article, we explore the problem space of these three parameters in the context of a task whose completion entails some combination of 36 state–action pairs, where all intermediate states (i.e., after the initial state and prior to the end state) represent progressive but partial completion of the task. Different choices produce profoundly different learning paths and outcomes, with the strongest effect for moment. Unfortunately, there is little discussion in the literature of the effect of such choices. This absence is disappointing, as the choice of when, what, and how much needs to be made by a modeler for every learning model. (shrink)

This paper introduces the new novel four-parameter Weibull distribution named as the Marshall–Olkin alpha power Weibull distribution. Some statistical properties of the distribution are examined. Based on Type-I censored and Type-II censored samples, maximum likelihood estimation, maximum product spacing, and Bayesian estimation for the MOAPW distribution parameters are discussed. Numerical analysis using real data sets and Monte Carlo simulation are accomplished to compare various estimation methods. This novel model’s supremacy upon some famous distributions is explained using (...) two real data sets and it is shown that the MOAPW model can achieve better fits than other competitive distributions. (shrink)

The essential objective of this research is to develop a linear exponential loss function to estimate the parameters and reliability function of the Weibull distribution based on upper record values when both shape and scale parameters are unknown. We perform this by merging a weight into LINEX to produce a new loss function called the weighted linear exponential loss function. Then, we utilized WLINEX to derive the parameters and reliability function of the WD. Next, we compared the performance of the (...) proposed method in this work with Bayesian estimation using the LINEX loss function, Bayesian estimation using the squared-error loss function, and maximum likelihood estimation. The evaluation depended on the difference between the estimated parameters and the parameters of completed data. The results revealed that the proposed method is the best for estimating parameters and has good performance for estimating reliability. (shrink)

The fundamental cognitive problem for active organisms is to decide what to do next in a changing environment. In this article, we analyze motor and action control in computational models that utilize reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. In reinforcement learning, action control is governed by an action selection policy that maximizes the expected future reward in light of a predictive world model. In this paper we argue that RL provides a way to explicate the so-called action-oriented views of cognitive (...) systems in representational terms. (shrink)

The COVID-19 pandemic shocked the global economy, with numerous companies suffering losses and shutting down. However, some companies proved to be resilient, being able to sustain their economic performance despite the pandemic. The study aims to explain the sustainable economic performance of companies during the COVID-19 pandemic. The relationships between empowering leadership, innovative work behavior, organizational readiness to change, and sustainable economic performance were assessed. The data were collected via an online questionnaire from January 2021 to March 2021, during the (...) height of the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia. The respondents were Russian companies’ employees holding management positions, competent to objectively assess organizational circumstances during the COVID-19 pandemic. A sample of 337 was used in the analysis. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) with maximum likelihood estimation was conducted using SPSS AMOS. The structural model was tested with standardized parameter estimates, standard errors, and p-values calculated. The findings of the study suggest that innovative work behavior and organizational readiness to learn have a direct influence on sustainable economic performance. The findings also suggest that empowering leadership impacts innovative work behavior but not sustainable economic performance. The mediation analysis indicates that innovative work behavior is a mediator between empowering leadership and sustainable economic performance, whereas organizational readiness to learn is not a moderator. The study adds to the leadership and sustainability body of knowledge and contributes to the research on the COVID-19 pandemic in the organizational context. (shrink)

Improving the resilience of urban road networks suffering from various disruptions has been a central focus for urban emergence management. However, to date the effective methods which may mitigate the negative impacts caused by the disruptions, such as road accidents and natural disasters, on urban road networks is highly insufficient. This study proposes a novel adaptive signal control strategy based on a doubly dynamic learning framework, which consists of deep reinforcement learning and day-to-day traffic dynamic learning, to improve the (...) network performance by adjusting red/green time split. In this study, red time split is regarded as extra traffic flow to discourage drivers to use affected roads, so as to reduce congestion and improve the resilience when urban road networks are subject to different levels of disruptions. In addition, we utilize the convolution neural network as Q-network to approximate Q values, link flow distribution and link capacity are regarded as the state space, and actions are denoted as red/green time split. A small network is utilized as a numerical example, and a fixed time signal control and other two adaptive signal controls are employed for the comparisons with the proposed one. The results show that the proposed adaptive signal control based on deep reinforcement learning can achieve better resilience in most of the cases, particularly in the scenarios of moderate and severe disruptions. This study may shed light on the advantages of the proposed adaptive signal control dealing with major emergencies compared to others. (shrink)

Compared to constraint-based causal discovery, causal discovery based on functional causal models is able to identify the whole causal model under appropriate assumptions [Shimizu et al. 2006; Hoyer et al. 2009; Zhang and Hyvärinen 2009b]. Functional causal models represent the effect as a function of the direct causes together with an independent noise term. Examples include the linear non-Gaussian acyclic model, nonlinear additive noise model, and post-nonlinear model. Currently, there are two ways to estimate the parameters in the models: dependence (...) minimization and maximum likelihood. In this article, we show that for any acyclic functional causal model, minimizing the mutual information between the hypothetical cause and the noise term is equivalent to maximizing the data likelihood with a flexible model for the distribution of the noise term. We then focus on estimation of the PNL causal model and propose to estimate it with the warped Gaussian process with the noise modeled by the mixture of Gaussians. As a Bayesian nonparametric approach, it outperforms the previous one based on mutual information minimization with nonlinear functions represented by multilayer perceptrons; we also show that unlike the ordinary regression, estimation results of the PNL causal model are sensitive to the assumption on the noise distribution. Experimental results on both synthetic and real data support our theoretical claims. (shrink)

The Gibbs sampler can be used to obtain samples of arbitrary size from the posterior distribution over the parameters of a structural equation model (SEM) given covariance data and a prior distribution over the parameters. Point estimates, standard deviations and interval estimates for the parameters can be computed from these samples. If the prior distribution over the parameters is uninformative, the posterior is proportional to the likelihood, and asymptotically the inferences based on the Gibbs sample are the same as (...) those based on the maximum likelihood solution, e.g., output from LISREL or EQS. In small samples, however, the likelihood surface is not Gaussian and in some cases contains local maxima. Nevertheless, the Gibbs sample comes from the correct posterior distribution over the parameters regardless of the sample size and the shape of the likelihood surface. With an informative prior distribution over the parameters, the posterior can be used to make inferences about the parameters of underidentified models, as we illustrate on a simple errors-in-variables model. (shrink)

Reinforcement Learning is a kind of machine learning. We know Profit Sharing, the Rational Policy Making algorithm, the Penalty Avoiding Rational Policy Making algorithm and PS-r* to guarantee the rationality in a typical class of the Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes. However they cannot treat continuous state spaces. In this paper, we present a solution to adapt them in continuous state spaces. We give RPM a mechanism to treat continuous state spaces in the environment that has the (...) same type of a reward. We show the effectiveness of the proposed method in numerical examples. (shrink)

The human masticatory system is a complex functional unit characterized by a multitude of skeletal components, muscles, soft tissues, and teeth. Muscle activation dynamics cannot be directly measured on live human subjects due to ethical, safety, and accessibility limitations. Therefore, estimation of muscle activations and their resultant forces is a longstanding and active area of research. Reinforcement learning (RL) is an adaptive learning strategy which is inspired by the behavioral psychology and enables an agent to learn the dynamics of (...) an unknown system via policy-driven explorations. The RL framework is a well-formulated closed-loop system where high capacity neural networks are trained with the feedback mechanism of rewards to learn relatively complex actuation patterns. In this work, we are building on a deep RL algorithm, known as the Soft Actor-Critic, to learn the inverse dynamics of a simulated masticatory system, i.e., learn the activation patterns that drive the jaw to its desired location. The outcome of the proposed training procedure is a parametric neural model which acts as the brain of the biomechanical system. We demonstrate the model’s ability to navigate the feasible three-dimensional (3D) envelope of motion with sub-millimeter accuracies. We also introduce a performance analysis platform consisting of a set of quantitative metrics to assess the functionalities of a given simulated masticatory system. This platform assesses the range of motion, metabolic efficiency, the agility of motion, the symmetry of activations, and the accuracy of reaching the desired target positions. We demonstrate how the model learns more metabolically efficient policies by integrating a force regularization term in the RL reward. We also demonstrate the inverse correlation between the metabolic efficiency of the models and their agility and range of motion. The presented masticatory model and the proposed RL training mechanism are valuable tools for the analysis of mastication and other biomechanical systems. We see this framework’s potential in facilitating the functional analyses aspects of surgical treatment planning and predicting the rehabilitation performance in post-operative subjects. (shrink)

Probability distributions play an essential role in modeling and predicting biomedical datasets. To have the best description and accurate prediction of the biomedical datasets, numerous probability distributions have been introduced and implemented. We investigate a novel family of lifetime probability distributions to represent biological datasets in this paper. The proposed family is called a new flexible logarithmic- X family. The suggested NFLog- X family is obtained by applying the T- X method together with the exponential model having the PDF m (...) t = e − t. Based on the NFLog- X approach, a three parameters probability distribution, namely, a new flexible logarithmic-Weibull distribution is introduced. The method of maximum likelihood estimation is adopted for estimating the parameters of the NFLog- X family. In the end, we examine three different biological datasets in order to give a thorough numerical research that illustrates the NFLog-Wei distribution. Comparisons are made between the analytical goodness-of-fit metrics of the suggested distribution. We made comparison with the alpha power transformed Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, Weibull, flexible reduced logarithmic-Weibull, and Marshall–Olkin Weibull distributions. After performing the analyses, we observe that the proposed method outclassed other competitive distributions. (shrink)

In this article, we consider estimation of the parameters of a generalized Pareto distribution and some lifetime indices such as those relating to reliability and hazard rate functions when the failure data are progressive first-failure censored. Both classical and Bayesian techniques are obtained. In the Bayesian framework, the point estimations of unknown parameters under both symmetric and asymmetric loss functions are discussed, after having been estimated using the conjugate gamma and discrete priors for the shape and scale parameters, respectively. In (...) addition, both exact and approximate confidence intervals as well as the exact confidence region for the estimators are constructed. A practical example using a simulated data set is analyzed. Finally, the performance of Bayes estimates is compared with that of maximum likelihood estimates through a Monte Carlo simulation study. (shrink)

Parameters of a Bertalanffy type of temperature dependent growth model are fitted using data from a population of stone loach ( Barbatula barbatula ). Over two periods respectively in 1990 and 2010 length data of this population has been collected at a lowland stream in the central part of the Netherlands. The estimation of the maximum length of a fully grown individual is given special attention because it is in fact found as the result of an extrapolation over (...) a large interval of the entire lifetime. It is concluded that this parameter should not at forehand be set at one fixed value for the population at that location due to varying conditions over the years. (shrink)

We study a joint pricing and inventory control problem for perishables with positive lead time in a finite horizon periodic-review system. Unlike most studies considering a continuous density function of demand, in our paper the customer demand depends on the price of current period and arrives according to a homogeneous Poisson process. We consider both backlogging and lost-sales cases, and our goal is to find a simultaneously ordering and pricing policy to maximize the expected discounted profit over the planning (...) horizon. When there is no fixed ordering cost involved, we design a deep reinforcement learning algorithm to obtain a near-optimal ordering policy and show that there are some monotonicity properties in the learned policy. We also show that our deep reinforcement learning algorithm achieves a better performance than tabular-based Q-learning algorithms. When a fixed ordering cost is involved, we show that our deep reinforcement learning algorithm is effective and efficient, under which the problem of “curse of dimension” is circumvented. (shrink)

Rapid and precise air operation mission planning is a key technology in unmanned aerial vehicles autonomous combat in battles. In this paper, an end-to-end UAV intelligent mission planning method based on deep reinforcement learning is proposed to solve the shortcomings of the traditional intelligent optimization algorithm, such as relying on simple, static, low-dimensional scenarios, and poor scalability. Specifically, the suppression of enemy air defense mission planning is described as a sequential decision-making problem and formalized as a Markov decision process. (...) Then, the SEAD intelligent planning model based on the proximal policy optimization algorithm is established and a general intelligent planning architecture is proposed. Furthermore, three policy training tricks, i.e., domain randomization, maximizing policy entropy, and underlying network parameter sharing, are introduced to improve the learning performance and generalizability of PPO. Experiments results show that the model in this work is efficient and stable, and can be adapted to the unknown continuous high-dimensional environment. It can be concluded that the UAV intelligent mission planning model based on DRL has powerful intelligent planning performance, and provides a new idea for researching UAV autonomy. (shrink)

Matrix models are widely used in biology to predict the temporal evolution of stage-structured populations. One issue related to matrix models that is often disregarded is the sampling variability. As the sample used to estimate the vital rates of the models are of finite size, a sampling error is attached to parameter estimation, which has in turn repercussions on all the predictions of the model. In this study, we address the question of building confidence bounds around the predictions of (...) matrix models due to sampling variability. We focus on a density-dependent Usher model, the maximum likelihood estimator of parameters, and the predicted stationary stage vector. The asymptotic distribution of the stationary stage vector is specified, assuming that the parameters of the model remain in a set of the parameter space where the model admits one unique equilibrium point. Tests for density-dependence are also incidentally provided. The model is applied to a tropical rain forest in French Guiana. (shrink)

1. Introduction 2. Reward-Guided Decision Making 3. Content in the Model 4. How to Deflate a Metarepresentational Reading Proust and Carruthers on metacognitive feelings 5. A Deflationary Treatment of RPEs? 5.1 Dispensing with prediction errors 5.2 What is use of the RPE focused on? 5.3 Alternative explanations—worldly correlates 5.4 Contrast cases 6. Conclusion Appendix: Temporal Difference Learning Algorithms.

A new lifetime distribution, called exponential doubly Poisson distribution, is proposed with decreasing, increasing, and upside-down bathtub-shaped hazard rates. One of the reasons for introducing the new distribution is that it can describe the failure time of a system connected in the form of a parallel-series structure. Some properties of the proposed distribution are addressed. Four methods of estimation for the involved parameters are considered based on progressively type II censored data. These methods are maximum likelihood, moments, least (...) squares, and weighted least squares estimations. Through an extensive numerical simulation, the performance of the estimation methods is compared based on the average of mean squared errors and the average of absolute relative biases of the estimates. Two real datasets are used to compare the proposed distribution with some other well-known distributions. The comparison indicates that the proposed distribution is better than the other distributions to match the data provided. (shrink)

Due to the advance computer technology, the use of probability distributions has been raised up to solve the real life problems. These applications are found in reliability engineering, computer sciences, economics, psychology, survival analysis, and some others. This study offers a new probability model called Marshall–Olkin Extended Gumbel Type-II which can model various shapes of the failure rate function. The proposed distribution is capable to model increasing, decreasing, reverse J-shaped, and upside down bathtub shapes of the failure rate function. Various (...) statistical properties of the proposed distribution are derived such as alternate expressions for the density and distribution function, special cases of MOEGT-II distribution, quantile function, Lorenz curve, and Bonferroni curve. Estimation of the unknown parameters is carried out by the method of maximum likelihood. A simulation study is conducted using three different iterative methods with different samples of sizes n. The usefulness and potentiality of the MOEGT-II distribution have been shown using three real life data sets. The MOEGT-II distribution has been demonstrated as better fit than Exponentiated Gumbel Type-II, Marshall–Olkin Gumbel Type-II, Gumbel Type-II, Marshall–Olkin–Frechet, Frechet, Burr III, Log Logistic, Beta Inverse Weibull, and Kumaraswamy Inverse Weibull distributions. (shrink)

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and the Soochow Gambling Task (SGT) are two experience-based risky decision-making tasks for examining decision-making deficits in clinical populations. Several cognitive models, including the expectancy-valence learning model (EVL) and the prospect valence learning model (PVL), have been developed to disentangle the motivational, cognitive, and response processes underlying the explicit choices in these tasks. The purpose of the current study was to develop an improved model that can fit empirical data better than the EVL and PVL (...) models and, in addition, produce more consistent parameter estimates across the IGT and SGT. Twenty-six opiate users (mean age 34.23; SD 8.79) and 27 control participants (mean age 35; SD 10.44) completed both tasks. Eighteen cognitive models varying in evaluation, updating, and choice rules were fit to individual data and their performances were compared to that of a statistical baseline model to find a best fitting model. The results showed that the model combining the prospect utility function treating gains and losses separately, the decay-reinforcement updating rule, and the trial-independent choice rule performed the best in both tasks. Furthermore, the winning model produced more consistent individual parameter estimates across the two tasks than any of the other models. (shrink)

This paper investigates a distributed coordination control for a class of high-order uncertain multiagent systems. Under the framework of iterative learning control, a novel fully distributed learning protocol is devised for the coordination problem of MASs including time-varying parameter uncertainties as well as actuator saturations. Meanwhile, the learning updating laws of various parameters are proposed. Utilizing Lyapunov theory and combining with Graph theory, the proposed algorithm can make each follower track a leader completely over a limited time interval even (...) though each follower is without knowing the dynamics of the leader. Moreover, the extension to formation control is made. The validity and feasibility of the algorithm are verified conclusively by two examples. (shrink)

This paper addresses the robust stabilization problem for a class of stochastic Markovian jump systems with distributed delays. The systems under consideration involve Brownian motion, Markov chains, distributed delays, and parameter uncertainties. By an appropriate Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional, the novel delay-dependent stabilization criterion for the stochastic Markovian jump systems is derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities. When given linear matrix inequalities are feasible, an explicit expression of the desired state feedback controller is given. The designed controller, based on the (...) obtained criterion, ensures asymptotically stable in the mean square sense of the resulting closed-loop system. The convenience of the design is greatly enhanced due to the existence of an adjustable parameter in the controller. Finally, a numerical example is exploited to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed theory. (shrink)

Issues related to controlled human infection studies using Schistosoma mansoni (CHI-S) were explored to ensure the ethical and voluntary participation of potential CHI-S volunteers in an endemic setting in Uganda. We invited volunteers from a fishing community and a tertiary education community to guide the development of informed consent procedures. Consultative group discussions were held to modify educational materials on schistosomiasis, vaccines and the CHI-S model and similar discussions were held with a test group. With both groups, a mock consent (...) process was conducted. Fourteen in-depth key informant interviews and three group discussions were held to explore perceptions towards participating in a CHI-S. Most of the participants had not heard of the CHI-S. Willingness to take part depended on understanding the study procedures and the consenting process. Close social networks were key in deciding to take part. The worry of adverse effects was cited as a possible hindrance to taking part. Volunteer time compensation was unclear for a CHI-S. Potential volunteers in these communities are willing to take part in a CHI-S. Community engagement is needed to build trust and time must be taken to share study procedures and ensure understanding of key messages. (shrink)

Irrational debt decisions at the individual level may harm collective welfare. For this reason, regulators are committed to encourage information-based behaviours in order to enhance likelihood of appropriate indebtedness. We analyse, with a diff-in-diff estimator, the Italian case offered by the Legislative Decree that reformed the consumer credit market adopting European Directive 2008/48/ec, and that reinforced the mandatory information acquisition, jointly asked to lenders and borrowers, before granting/receiving consumer credit. By using micro-data on 60.000 consumer credit borrowers, in total, (...) randomly sampled from the most relevant Italian Credit Bureau, our findings support that, in the medium term, the new consumer credit regulation has improved borrowers’ repayment ability, enhancing the quality of credit distribution. Nevertheless, a simplistic ‘better information-better behaviour’ relationship cannot be assured. This success is likely due to conjunct adaptation of behaviours, with shared responsibilities experienced on both the demand and offer side of the consumer credit marketplace. (shrink)

Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of categorical multitrait-multimethod (MTMM) data is challenging because the likelihood involves high-dimensional integrals over the crossed method and trait factors, with no known closed-form solution. The purpose of the study is to introduce three newly developed ML methods that are eligible for estimating MTMM models with categorical responses: Variational maximization-maximization (e.g., Rijmen and Jeon, 2013 ), alternating imputation posterior (e.g., Cho and Rabe-Hesketh, 2011 ), and Monte Carlo local likelihood (e.g., Jeon et (...) al., under revision). Each method is briefly described and its applicability for MTMM models with categorical data are discussed. (shrink)

In ecology, if the considered area or space is large, the spatial distribution of individuals of a given plant species is never homogeneous; plants form different patches. The homogeneity change in space or in time (in particular, the related change-point problem) is an important research subject in mathematical statistics. In the paper, for a given data system along a straight line, two areas are considered, where the data of each area come from different discrete distributions, with unknown parameters. In the (...) paper a method is presented for the estimation of the distribution change-point between both areas and an estimate is given for the distributions separated by the obtained change-point. The solution of this problem will be based on the maximum likelihood method. Furthermore, based on an adaptation of the well-known bootstrap resampling, a method for the estimation of the so-called change-interval is also given. The latter approach is very general, since it not only applies in the case of the maximum-likelihood estimation of the change-point, but it can be also used starting from any other change-point estimation known in the ecological literature. The proposed model is validated against typical ecological situations, providing at the same time a verification of the applied algorithms. (shrink)

We briefly review Condorcet's and Young's epistemic interpretations of preference aggregation rules as maximum likelihood estimators. We then develop a general framework for interpreting epistemic social choice rules as maximum likelihood estimators, maximum a posteriori estimators, or expected utility maximizers. We illustrate this framework with several examples. Finally, we critique this program.Send article to KindleTo send this article to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal (...) Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle. Find out more about sending to your Kindle. Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply. Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO EPISTEMIC DEMOCRACYVolume 9, Issue 2Marcus PivatoDOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/epi.2012.4Your Kindle email address Please provide your Kindle [email protected]@kindle.com Available formats PDF Please select a format to send. By using this service, you agree that you will only keep articles for personal use, and will not openly distribute them via Dropbox, Google Drive or other file sharing services. Please confirm that you accept the terms of use. Cancel Send ×Send article to Dropbox To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox. A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO EPISTEMIC DEMOCRACYVolume 9, Issue 2Marcus PivatoDOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/epi.2012.4Available formats PDF Please select a format to send. By using this service, you agree that you will only keep articles for personal use, and will not openly distribute them via Dropbox, Google Drive or other file sharing services. Please confirm that you accept the terms of use. Cancel Send ×Send article to Google Drive To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive. A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO EPISTEMIC DEMOCRACYVolume 9, Issue 2Marcus PivatoDOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/epi.2012.4Available formats PDF Please select a format to send. By using this service, you agree that you will only keep articles for personal use, and will not openly distribute them via Dropbox, Google Drive or other file sharing services. Please confirm that you accept the terms of use. Cancel Send ×Export citation Request permission. (shrink)

In this paper, we mainly investigate the coordinated tracking control issues of multiple Euler–Lagrange systems considering constant communication delays and output constraints. Firstly, we devise a distributed observer to ensure that every agent can get the information of the virtual leader. In order to handle uncertain problems, the neural network technique is adopted to estimate the unknown dynamics. Then, we utilize an asymmetric barrier Lyapunov function in the control design to guarantee the output errors satisfy the time-varying output constraints. Two (...) distributed adaptive coordinated control schemes are proposed to guarantee that the followers can track the leader accurately. The first scheme makes the tracking errors between followers and leader be uniformly ultimately bounded, and the second scheme further improves the tracking accuracy. Finally, we utilize a group of manipulator networks simulation experiments to verify the validity of the proposed distributed control laws. (shrink)