We describe a computational model of two central aspects of people's probabilistic reasoning: descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model assumes that people's reasoning follows standard frequentist probability theory, but it is subject to random noise. This random noise has a regressive effect in descriptive probability estimation, moving probability estimates away from normative probabilities and toward the center of the probability scale. This random noise has an anti-regressive effect in inferential judgement, however. These regressive and anti-regressive effects explain (...) various reliable and systematic biases seen in people's descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model predicts that these contrary effects will tend to cancel out in tasks that involve both descriptive estimation and inferential judgement, leading to unbiased responses in those tasks. We test this model by applying it to one such task, described by Gallistel et al. ). Participants' median responses in this task were unbiased, agreeing with normative probability theory over the full range of responses. Our model captures the pattern of unbiased responses in this task, while simultaneously explaining systematic biases away from normatively correct probabilities seen in other tasks. (shrink)

CHAPTER ONE CUSANUS' VISION OF MAN Historical and Historiographical Backgrounds Nicolaus Cusanus has fascinated and puzzled students of late medieval and ...

ABSTRACT This response to the review of Understanding Character Education: Approaches, Applications and Issues primarily addresses two main criticisms offered by Berkowitz. First, we offer comment on the conceptual definitions of ‘character’ and ‘character education’. We acknowledge the need for greater clarity regarding definitions in the field, explaining how the book’s purpose and intended audience guided the introduction of key terms in Chapter 1. Second, we consider the role of extrinsic motivators within character education approaches. We agree with Berkowitz that (...) intrinsic motivation is central to the acquisition of virtue, but caveat this by suggesting that extrinsic motivators can initially play a facilitatory role. (shrink)

Researchers are regularly faced with ethical dilemmas, both prior to and during the collection of data in the field. In this book, Brown, Wild, and their contributing colleagues, outline various et...