Abstract

One hundred years ago, most wars occurred between nations; today, large-scale violent conflict consists almost exclusively of civil wars in which civilians constitute 30 percent of casualties.’ According to a recent World Bank study of conflict, the poorest one-sixth of the worlds population suffers four-fifths of the consequences of civil wars. While poverty is the greatest risk factor determining a nation’s likelihood of entering into conflict, it is also one of instability’s most predictable consequencet—thus, war is a vicious cycle, and poor nations may remain at risk for intense violence for years or even decades.