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The Prediction of Action
In Timothy O'Connor & Constantine Sandis (eds.), A Companion to the Philosophy of Action. Malden, MA: Wiley-Blackwell. pp. 410–416 (2010)
Abstract
This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Classes of Uncertainty Our Argument Predicting Other People's Action Predicting One's Own Actions Predicting Group Action The Danger of Prediction References.Author's Profile
prediction of action philosophical motivation ‐ behind interest in action, traditionally twofold classes of uncertainty ‐ rational choice theory, three types of decision‐making liability of opinion or estimate to error ‐ radically distinguished from probability or chance of either type predicting other people's action ‐ well‐known tension between free choice and prediction tension, applying to probability predicting one's own actions and predicting group action behavior of aggregate ‐ qualitatively central danger of prediction ‐ predicting X's action, easy when one has reason to believe X's actions role of hard‐to‐predict high‐impact outliers ‐ human action dominant in history, economic life and politics
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