Abstract

The article raises three key questions: what explains Putin’s (mis)calculations in the field of security and Russia’s hard-power projection onto Ukraine, what prevented both Russian and international experts from taking seriously Putin’s resolve to launch the war prior to February 24, 2022, and what would be the long-term repercussions of the war for liberal international order? To answer these interconnected questions, we refer to the discipline of foreign-policy analysis and political theory.