Synthese 194 (4):1295-1302 (2017)

Authors
Abstract
The no miracles argument is one of the main arguments for scientific realism. Recently it has been alleged that the no miracles argument is fundamentally flawed because it commits the base rate fallacy. The allegation is based on the idea that the appeal of the no miracles argument arises from inappropriate neglect of the base rate of approximate truth among the relevant population of theories. However, the base rate fallacy allegation relies on an assumption of random sampling of individuals from the population which cannot be made in the case of the no miracles argument. Therefore the base rate fallacy objection to the no miracles argument fails. I distinguish between a “local” and a “global” form of the no miracles argument. The base rate fallacy objection has been leveled at the local version. I argue that the global argument plays a key role in supporting a base-rate-fallacy-free formulation of the local version of the argument.
Keywords No miracles argument  Scientific realism  Base rate fallacy   Base rate neglect
Categories (categorize this paper)
DOI 10.1007/s11229-015-0995-7
Options
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

PhilArchive copy


Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy     Papers currently archived: 71,464
External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

Inference to the Best Explanation.Peter Lipton - 1991 - London and New York: Routledge/Taylor and Francis Group.
The Scientific Image.William Demopoulos & Bas C. van Fraassen - 1982 - Philosophical Review 91 (4):603.
Inference to the Best Explanation.Peter Lipton - 1991 - London and New York: Routledge.

View all 20 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

Should Scientific Realists Embrace Theoretical Conservatism?Finnur Dellsén - 2018 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A:30-38.
Como Ser um Naturalista Filosófico Responsável?Luis R. G. Oliveira - 2017 - Revista Brasileira de Filosofia da Religião 4 (1):9-25.

View all 10 citations / Add more citations

Similar books and articles

Exhuming the No-Miracles Argument.Colin Howson - 2013 - Analysis 73 (2):205-211.
The Probabilistic No Miracles Argument.Jan Sprenger - 2016 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 6 (2):173-189.
Pragmatically Before Ecologically Valid Tasks.Laura Macchi - 1997 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 20 (4):778-779.
Base Rates and Randomness.Ranald R. Macdonald - 1997 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 20 (4):778-778.

Analytics

Added to PP index
2015-12-29

Total views
172 ( #69,331 of 2,520,750 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
6 ( #116,935 of 2,520,750 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads

My notes