Springer (forthcoming)

Authors
Jeroen Hopster
Utrecht University
Abstract
While the foundations of climate science and ethics are well established, fine-grained climate predictions, as well as policy-decisions, are beset with uncertainties. This chapter maps climate uncertainties and classifies them as to their ground, extent and location. A typology of uncertainty is presented, centered along the axes of scientific and moral uncertainty. This typology is illustrated with paradigmatic examples of uncertainty in climate science, climate ethics and climate economics. Subsequently, the chapter discusses the IPCC’s preferred way of representing uncertainties and evaluates its strengths and weaknesses from a risk management perspective. Three general strategies for decision-makers to cope with climate uncertainty are outlined, the usefulness of which largely depends on whether or not decision-makers find themselves in a context of deep uncertainty. The chapter concludes by offering two recommendations to ease the work of policymakers, faced with the various uncertainties engrained in climate discourse.
Keywords Climate change  Scientific uncertainty   Moral uncertainty  Deep uncertainty  Risk   IPCC  Storylines   Probability   Expected utility
Categories (categorize this paper)
Buy this book Find it on Amazon.com
Options
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

PhilArchive copy

 PhilArchive page | Other versions
External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit.Frank Knight - 1921 - University of Chicago Press.

View all 15 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

No citations found.

Add more citations

Similar books and articles

Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication.Susan L. Joslyn & Jared E. LeClerc - 2016 - Topics in Cognitive Science 8 (1):222-241.
Scientific Uncertainty: A User's Guide.Seamus Bradley - 2012 - Grantham Institute on Climate Change Discussion Paper.
Making Climate Decisions.Richard Bradley & Katie Steele - 2015 - Philosophy Compass 10 (11):799-810.
Climate Simulations: Uncertain Projections for an Uncertain World.Rafaela Hillerbrand - 2014 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 45 (1):17-32.
The Irrelevance of the Risk-Uncertainty Distinction.Dominic Roser - 2017 - Science and Engineering Ethics 23 (5):1387-1407.
False Precision, Surprise and Improved Uncertainty Assessment.Wendy S. Parker & James S. Risbey - 2015 - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 373 (2055):20140453.

Analytics

Added to PP index
2021-10-01

Total views
28 ( #393,404 of 2,455,623 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
28 ( #27,034 of 2,455,623 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads

My notes