State of the Field: Why novel prediction matters

Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 44 (4):580-589 (2013)
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There is considerable disagreement about the epistemic value of novel predictive success, i.e. when a scientist predicts an unexpected phenomenon, experiments are conducted, and the prediction proves to be accurate. We survey the field on this question, noting both fully articulated views such as weak and strong predictivism, and more nascent views, such as pluralist reasons for the instrumental value of prediction. By examining the various reasons offered for the value of prediction across a range of inferential contexts , we can see that neither weak nor strong predictivism captures all of the reasons for valuing prediction available. A third path is presented, Pluralist Instrumental Predictivism; PIP for short

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Author Profiles

P. D. Magnus
State University of New York, Albany
Heather Douglas
Michigan State University

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Inference to the best explanation.Peter Lipton - 2004 - New York: Routledge/Taylor and Francis Group.
Précis of Inference to the Best Explanation, 2nd Edition.Peter Lipton - 2007 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 74 (2):421-423.
Saving the phenomena.James Bogen & James Woodward - 1988 - Philosophical Review 97 (3):303-352.

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