Political globalization is one dimension of a process that is multidimensional (not just economic), historical (in millennial proportions), and transformative (in changing planetary institutional structures). Conceiving of political globalization in evolutionary terms (as one centered on innovative sequences of search-and-selection) makes it possible to construct a time-table for global politics, and to derive from it an agenda of priority global problems. The following questions will be addressed on that basis: Where in that process are we situated at the present time? (...) (a time that is one of palpable uncertainty); What global problems does this analysis point to, and what does it tell us about where we are heading? These are not forecasts but rather elements of an "institutional" framework of orientation for the discussion of the next several decades of global organization. (shrink)

Nikolay Kondratieff is known primarily for his theory of long cycles. However, it is worth recalling that he was among the first who started to investigate the nature of different economic cycles and their systematic interaction. Actually the primary classification of cycles into short, medium and long belongs to Kondratieff.

Prepared for NATO conference on Kondratieff Waves and Warfare, Covilha, Portugal, Feb. 2005. Published in T. C. Devezas, ed., Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security. Amsterdam : IOS, 2006. Also online here.: My work in the mid-1980s on Kondratieff waves tried to explain long waves in terms of causal relationships among six main variables : war, production, prices, innovation, investment, and real wages. I emphasized war as a central element ; saw production waves as (...) - Économie et Marxisme (...) – Nouvel article. (shrink)