The aim of the paper is to propose a preferences representation model under risk where risk perception can be past experience dependent. A first step consists in considering a one period decision problem where individual preferences are no more defined only on decisions but on pairs (decision, past experience). The obtained criterion is used in the construction of a dynamic choice model under risk. The paper ends with an illustrative example concerning insurance demand. It appears that our model allows to (...) explain modifications in the insurance demand behavior over time observed on the insurance markets for catastrophic risk and difficult to justify with standard models. (shrink)

The aim of this paper is to propose a preferences representation model where ambiguity attitudes can be exogenous events or past experience-dependent. We adapt the Recursive Smooth Ambiguity model proposed by Klibanoff (Journal of Economic Theory 144:930-976, 2009) by introducing past experience described by a sequence of neutral events occurring up to the moment of the decision. These neutral events do not provide any information on the true process, but are likely to strengthen or weaken the decision-maker’s ambiguity aversion degree (...) by modifying emotions. Our model can explain some observed behaviors and market inefficiencies. We propose two illustrations. First, we provide a behavioral explanation for the decrease in influenza vaccination in France that followed the H1N1 crisis in 2009–2010. Second, we contribute to the broad literature on the annuity puzzle by introducing the impact of emotions on ambiguity attitudes. (shrink)

Les comportements individuels et collectifs en présence d’incertitude peuvent paraître irrationnels ou se modifier au cours du temps à la suite de nouvelles informations ou d’événements plus ou moins en lien avec ces incertitudes. Ceci pose la question des moyens mis à disposition des autorités publiques pour prévenir et gérer ces situations. Dans cet article, nous nous intéressons aux comportements des individus face aux situations incertaines en mettant en avant la manière dont la population peut percevoir ces incertitudes et les (...) informations provenant de sources diverses. Nous reprenons la littérature économique des comportements et prises de décision dans un environnement incertain afin de mettre en évidence les difficultés de la mise en place de politiques notamment d’incitation à la prévention. (shrink)