Absolute probability in small worlds: A new paradox in probability theory

Philosophia 3 (2-3):167-178 (1973)
  Copy   BIBTEX

Abstract

For a finite universe of discourse, if Φ → and ~(Ψ → Φ) , then P(Ψ) > P(Φ), i.e., there is always a loss of information, there is an increase in probability, in a non reversible implication. But consider the two propositions, "All ravens are black", (i.e., "(x)(Rx ⊃ Bx)"), and "Some ravens are black" (i.e., "(∃x)(Rx & Bx)"). In a world of one individual, called "a", these two propositions are equivalent to "~Ra ∨ Ba" and "Ra & Ba" respectively. However, (Ra & Ba) → (~Ra ∨ Ba) and ~[(~Ra ∨ Ba) → (Ra & Ba)]. Consequently, in a world of one individual it is more probable that all ravens are black than that some ravens are black!

Links

PhilArchive



    Upload a copy of this work     Papers currently archived: 91,709

External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server

Through your library

Similar books and articles

Quantum probability in logical space.John C. Bigelow - 1979 - Philosophy of Science 46 (2):223-243.
Regarding the Raven Paradox.Robert J. Levy - 1988 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1988:17 - 23.
Black ravens and a white shoe.Herbert A. Simon - 1991 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 42 (3):339-342.
Probability and conditionals.Robert C. Stalnaker - 1970 - Philosophy of Science 37 (1):64-80.
Conditionalizing on knowledge.Timothy Williamson - 1998 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 49 (1):89-121.
Quantum probability and many worlds.Meir Hemmo - 2007 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 38 (2):333-350.
Confirming Inexact Generalizations.Ernest W. Adams - 1988 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1988:10 - 16.

Analytics

Added to PP
2009-01-28

Downloads
56 (#284,618)

6 months
6 (#510,793)

Historical graph of downloads
How can I increase my downloads?

Citations of this work

No citations found.

Add more citations

References found in this work

The ways of paradox.W. V. Quine - 1966 - New York,: Random.

Add more references