Abstract

Suppose that three patients each independently confront the same high-stakes treatment decision. Perhaps it is an option to terminate a high-risk pregnancy, or to accept a blood transfusion after a catastrophic hemorrhage. Suppose further that the three patients approach their choice in radically different ways. The divergence lies not in the choice made, but in the pathway followed in arriving at it. P1 is a classic analytical reasoner. She enumerates the potential costs and benefits of each option, reviews the probabilities, and makes a decision on the basis of her analysis. P2 does none of that analytical work. She has a settled and robust prior...