Abstract

In the appendices to his Logic of Scientific Discovery, Karl Popper presents a number of arguments in favour of the thesis that the logical probability of any universal law in an infinite universe must be zero. According to Popper, from this it follows that any attempt to apply a Bayesian approach to the confirmation of scientific laws is a non-starter—if the prior probability of any hypothesis h is zero = 0), it follows from Bayes Theorem that p = 0 for any possible e. In this essay, I will discuss what I deem to be Popper’s main argument in support of this thesis. I shall argue that the general validity of two of the three assumptions on which the argument is based can be challenged