Likelihood and Consilience: On Forster’s Counterexamples to the Likelihood Theory of Evidence

Philosophy of Science 82 (5):930-940 (2015)
  Copy   BIBTEX

Abstract

Forster presented some interesting examples having to do with distinguishing the direction of causal influence between two variables, which he argued are counterexamples to the likelihood theory of evidence. In this paper, we refute Forster's arguments by carefully examining one of the alleged counterexamples. We argue that the example is not convincing as it relies on dubious intuitions that likelihoodists have forcefully criticized. More importantly, we show that contrary to Forster's contention, the consilience-based methodology he favored is accountable within the framework of the LTE.

Links

PhilArchive



    Upload a copy of this work     Papers currently archived: 76,140

External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server

Through your library

Similar books and articles

Likelihoods, Multiple Universes, and Epistemic Context.Lydia McGrew - 2005 - Philosophia Christi 7 (2):475 - 481.
Confirmation for a modest realism.Laura J. Snyder - 2005 - Philosophy of Science 72 (5):839-849.
On the Use of Likelihood as a Guide to Truth.Steven Orla Kimbrough - 1980 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1980:117 - 128.
Objective evidence and absence: Comment on Sober.Michael Strevens - 2009 - Philosophical Studies 143 (1):91 - 100.
On The Likelihood Principle and a Supposed Antinomy.Barry Loewer, Robert Laddaga & Roger Rosenkrantz - 1978 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1978:279 - 286.
Don't Believe the Hype: Why Should Philosophical Theories Yield to Intuitions?Moti Mizrahi - 2015 - Teorema: International Journal of Philosophy 34 (3):141-158.
Selection Biases in Likelihood Arguments.Matthew Kotzen - 2012 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 63 (4):825-839.
Miraculous consilience of quantum mechanics.Malcolm R. Forster - 2010 - In Ellery Eells & James Fetzer (eds.), The Place of Probability in Science. Springer. pp. 201--228.
On the Empirical Adequacy of Composite Statistical Hypotheses.Joseph F. Hanna - 1984 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1984:73-80.

Analytics

Added to PP
2015-09-07

Downloads
57 (#209,205)

6 months
2 (#297,033)

Historical graph of downloads
How can I increase my downloads?

Author's Profile

Jiji Zhang
Lingnan University

Citations of this work

No citations found.

Add more citations