A technical explanation of technical explanation
Abstract
An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning. You should easily recognize, and intuitively understand, the concepts "prior probability", "posterior probability", "likelihood ratio", and "odds ratio". This essay is intended as a sequel to the Intuitive Explanation, but you might skip that introduction if you are already thoroughly Bayesian. Where the Intuitive Explanation focused on providing a firm grasp of Bayesian basics, the Technical Explanation builds, on a Bayesian foundation, theses about human rationality and philosophy of science