Treatment effect optimisation in dynamic environments

Journal of Causal Inference 10 (1):106-122 (2022)
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Abstract

Applying causal methods to fields such as healthcare, marketing, and economics receives increasing interest. In particular, optimising the individual-treatment-effect – often referred to as uplift modelling – has peaked in areas such as precision medicine and targeted advertising. While existing techniques have proven useful in many settings, they suffer vividly in a dynamic environment. To address this issue, we propose a novel optimisation target that is easily incorporated in bandit algorithms. Incorporating this target creates a causal model which we name an uplifted contextual multi-armed bandit. Experiments on real and simulated data show the proposed method to effectively improve upon the state-of-the-art. All our code is made available online at https://github.com/vub-dl/u-cmab.

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Causality.Judea Pearl - 2000 - New York: Cambridge University Press.
Causal inference in statistics. An overview.Judea Pearl - 2009 - Statistics Surveys 3:96-146.

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