Abstract

In this study, I develop a systemic level theory of the relationship between democracy and war based on Kant's writings on perpetual peace. I argue that the relationship between democracy and war in the international system is both endogenous and evolutionary. War creates conditions that favor the development of democracies and a rule of law among nations because the experience of warfare improves the internal institutions of states over time and because democracies are more likely to win the wars they fight. Peaceful relations between democracies creates greater peace and furthers the spread of democracy and democratic norms in the international system. The pacific impact of democracy on war increases over time as the system moves closer to Kant's federation of free states. In addition, I assert that the substantive impact of war on democracy declines over time as the democratic rule of law expands internationally and as the frequency of war decreases over time. I also examine the impact of three exogenous variables on war and democracy at the systemic level: major power capability concentration, systemic trade, and world production. I argue that increases in concentration and global trade make war in the system less likely, whereas increases in world production are positively related to the growth in the proportion of democracies. I utilize two estimation techniques: FIML estimation of two simultaneous equations models, and Sliding window estimation, with 30, 40 and 50-year overlapping sub-samples. ;My empirical analysis demonstrates that the systemic level relationship between democracy and war is endogenous, with democracy having a negative impact on war; war also has a positive effect on the proportion of democracies. Also, the largest wars in the sample time period produce the greatest structural breaks in the models. I also find empirical support for the power preponderance hypothesis; as concentration of power in the system increases, the proportion of nations fighting war decreases. Finally, the results do suggest that systemic trade is negatively related to systemic conflict, while world production has little or no effect on trends in global democracy