Abstract

The Biliu River originates from the southern foot of Qinling Mountain in Gaizhou city, with an elevation of 1047 m, and is the largest river in Dalian. The hydrological elements mainly include rainfall, runoff, temperature, evaporation, and other time series associated with the hydrological cycle. Among them, runoff is the most visible output performance, and the direct source of runoff is during rainfall. This paper establishes a reservoir scheduling model that considers the influence of multiple uncertainty factors and analyzes the influence of mixed uncertainty on reservoir scheduling and Xingli’s objectives based on probability box theory. In terms of uncertainties, the uncertainty of hydrological model parameters and the randomness of precipitation processes are mainly considered, with the former having an impact on river runoff simulation and the latter having an impact on both river runoff simulation and crop irrigation water demand. In the case of the Jing River basin, for example, the results show that, compared to the stochasticity of the precipitation process, the variation in precipitation has a significant effect on irrigation water demand in maize, followed by the frequency of precipitation, and the interaction between the two is not significant.