Abstract

Are the objectives of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 based on Putin’s ideological view of Russia’s history and the place of Ukraine in it in the process re-establishing Russia’s position as a world power challenging US hegemony? Or are there underlying economic objectives shared with Russia’s oligarchs to gain control of Ukraine’s mineral wealth and strategic economic position at the crossroads of Europe and Eurasia? This article compares the economies of Russia and Ukraine and their performance since the end of the Soviet Union and finds that their economic structures and performance are very similar over the last three decades, as is the domination of their respective oligarchs, but that the war has hit Ukraine much more disastrously than sanctions have hit Russia. It concludes that Russia does not need Ukraine’s mineral wealth but that control of Ukraine would bring Russia economic gains. However, the principal reason for the invasion is to push back the potential NATO advance to the Russian border, itself a reaction to US fears of Europe’s increasing dependence on Russia for gas, and in doing so challenge US hegemony not just in Europe by across the world by building bridges to Asia and other parts of the Global South.