Abstract

In the decision to the British appeals case Re H, Judge Lord Nicholls, talking about criminal behavior, stated that “that the more serious the allegation the less likely it is that the event occurred”. There is actually quite a bit of discussion about the conclusions that should be drawn from this observation in the literature, but I have not found much discussion of the question whether the observation is right. I find this surprising, and in this essay I want to inspect this question.