Abstract

Road link speed is one of the important indicators for traffic states. In order to incorporate the spatiotemporal dynamics and correlation characteristics of road links into speed prediction, this paper proposes a method based on LDA and GCN. First, we construct a trajectory dataset from map-matched GPS location data of taxis. Then, we use the LDA algorithm to extract the semantic function vectors of urban zones and quantify the spatial dynamic characteristics of road links based on taxi trajectories. Finally, we add semantic function vectors to the dataset and train a graph convolutional network to learn the spatial and temporal dependencies of road links. The learned model is used to predict the future speed of road links. The proposed method is compared with six baseline models on the same dataset generated by GPS equipped on taxis in Shenzhen, China, and the results show that our method has better prediction performance when semantic zoning information is added. Both composite and single-valued semantic zoning information can improve the performance of graph convolutional networks by 6.46% and 8.35%, respectively, while the baseline machine learning models work only for single-valued semantic zoning information on the experimental dataset.